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NASA NTRS2011

First Stage Solid Propellant Multiply Debris Thermal Analysis

Destruction of a solid rocket stage of a launch vehicle can create a thermal radiation hazard for an aborting crew module. This hazard was assessed for the Constellation Program (Cx) crew and launch vehicle concept. For this concept, if an abort was initiated in first stage flight, the Crew Module (CM) will separate and be pulled away from the malfunctioning launch vehicle via a Launch Abort System (LAS). Having aborted the mission, the launch vehicle will likely be destroyed via a Flight Termination System (FTS) in order to prevent it from errantly traversing back over land and posing a risk to the public. The resulting launch vehicle debris field, composed primarily of first stage solid propellant, poses a threat to the CM. The harsh radiative thermal environment, caused by surrounding burning propellant debris, may lead to CM parachute failure. A methodology, detailed herein, has been developed to address this concern and to quantify the risk of first stage propellant debris leading to the thermal demise of the CM parachutes. Utilizing basic thermal radiation principles, a software program was developed to calculate parachute temperature as a function of time for a given abort trajectory and debris piece trajectory set. Two test cases, considered worst case aborts with regard to launch vehicle debris environments, were analyzed using the simulation: an abort declared at Mach 1 and an abort declared at maximum dynamic pressure (Max Q). For both cases, the resulting temperature profiles indicated that thermal limits for the parachutes were not exceeded. However, short duration close encounters by single debris pieces did have a significant effect on parachute temperature. Therefore while these two test cases did not indicate exceedance of thermal limits, in order to quantify the risk of parachute failure due to radiative effects from the abort environment, a more thorough probability-based analysis using the methodology demonstrated herein must be performed.

Toleman, Benjamin M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Achieving Equilibrium for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Drone usage has proliferated in recent years with many applications that have market-changing potential. Applications that include parcel delivery, wildlife protection, precision farming, law enforcement, and industrial inspection, just to name a few. In this paper, the term drone is used to mean both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and small Unmanned Aircraft System vehicles. Flight infrastructure can currently only support a few thousand aircraft flying over the United States National Airspace System (NAS) at any given time. A delay atone airport sends ripple effects through the system, causing more delays and missed connections. Once regulations and safety policies are put in place to allow for the widespread use of unmanned drones, the number of aircraft in the NAS is expected to skyrocket to millions, potentially congesting the airspace resulting in possible separation violations. In air traffic control, separation is the concept of keeping an “ownship” aircraft outside a minimum distance from “intruder” aircraft to reduce the risk of the aircraft colliding, as well as preventing accidents due to secondary factors, such as wake turbulence. Maintaining proper separation is a safety critical property for drones in the airspace. This paper addresses separation in time and in distance for high volume corridors (en-route) and lanes(on ground). The requirements and necessary conditions for maintaining proper separation and reaching maximum throughput for a given corridor/lane are addressed assuming unidirectional corridors/lanes where an aircraft arrives from one side and departs from the opposite side. Simulation results are presented that show the presented solution guarantees a set of drones to reach the equilibrium state by adjusting their speed based on their distance to the aircraft in front of them. The equilibrium state is defined as a state when a set of n aircraft moving at a relatively constant speed and uniform spacing from each other in a congested system. A congested system is defined as a state when the aircraft cannot move at their maximum allowed speed. Unlike existing centralized and pre-planned approaches, the proposed solution is fully distributed and enables autonomous aircraft to decide to adjust their speed and distance with respect to the preceding aircraft, dynamically. Simulation results are presented that assess the feasibility of the approach using a large number of drones and evaluate the scalability of the proposed solution.

Mahyar R. Malekpour↗

NASA NTRS2015

Physiological Health Challenges for Human Missions to Mars

During the next decades, manned space missions are expected to be aiming at the Lagrange points, near Earth asteroids, and Mars flyby and/or landing. The question is therefore: Are we ready to go? To answer this with a yes, we are currently using the International Space Station to develop an integrated human physiological countermeasure suite. The integrated countermeasure suite will most likely encounter: 1) Exercise devices for aerobic, dynamic and resistive exercise training; 2) sensory‐motor computer training programs and anti‐motion sickness medication for preparing EVAs and G‐transitions; 3) lower limb bracelets for preventing and/or treating the VIIP (vision impairment and intracranial pressure) syndrome; 4) nutritional components for maintenance of bone, muscle, the cardiovascular system and preventing oxidative stress and damage and immune deficiencies (e. g. omega‐3 fatty acids, PRO/K, anti‐oxidants and less salt and iron); 5) bisphosphonates for preventing bone degradation.; 6) lower body compression garment and oral salt and fluid loading for landing on a planetary surface to combat orthostatic intolerance; 7) laboratory analysis equipment for individualized monitoring of biomarkers in blood, urine and saliva for estimation of health status in; 8) advanced ultrasound techniques for monitoring bone and cardiovascular health; and 9) computer modeling programs for individual health status assessments of efficiency and subsequent adjustments of countermeasures. In particular for future missions into deep space, we are concerned with the synergistic effects of weightlessness, radiation, operational constraints and other spaceflight environmental factors. Therefore, increased collaboration between physiological, behavioral, radiation and space vehicle design disciplines are strongly warranted. Another venue we are exploring in NASA's Human Research Program is the usefulness of artificial gravity for mitigating the health risks of long duration weightlessness.

Norsk, Peter↗

DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laboratory Testing to Assess the Feasibility of Polyurethane Flat Belts for Marine Energy Applications

Polyurethane flat belts have received limited scientific attention as load-bearing elements in marine energy systems, particularly in applications involving dynamic tensile and bending loads. This study evaluates their potential as a replacement for traditional wire ropes in marine energy applications, with a focus on their ability to be integrated into winch-driven wave energy converters where bending and tensile stresses can make long-term operation difficult. Polyurethane belts are hypothesized to offer enhanced fatigue resistance due to their reduced thickness in the bending plane and therefore lower bending stresses. This research involves a series of tests utilizing the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Large-Amplitude Motion Platform to replicate the dynamic conditions experienced by mooring lines of winch-based point-absorber-type marine energy converters. The conditions tested include unequal coiling and uncoiling tensions and load cases resulting from the device’s unconstrained movement relative to its anchor, such as twisting and off-axis loading. Results from this study show that polyurethane flat belts can achieve more than 198 percent of the fatigue life of a conventional wire rope under similar load profiles. The stress concentrations resulting from off-axis loading and cumulative twist beyond the system’s allowable limits have been identified as potential failure modes for flat belt mooring lines used in winch-driven wave energy converters deployed in ocean environments. To mitigate these risks, the use of anti-spin systems and fairleads designed to accommodate off-axis loading while limiting twist accumulation is recommended.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Manual Crew Override of Vehicle Landings Following G-Transitions

BACKGROUND Manual control during exploration spaceflight consists of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. This crew override capability is critical to enable overall mission success during landing contingencies. However, the introduction of manual override capabilities must be implemented to enable crews to mitigate risks introduced by human error. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. While training and landing aids enable successful landing through disorientation, these adaptive changes may increase cognitive demand that needs to be accounted for in the manual control strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition to develop appropriate countermeasures. METHODS In this study, we will examine operational piloting tasks following International Space Station (ISS) missions in a simulated lunar landing using a six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) motion base. The motion-based simulation will be implemented in our laboratory at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) and will be available within hours following the return from commercial crew landings. The primary goals of this study are (1) to understand the impact of spaceflight on crew ability to perform manual crew override tasks, (2) to examine how adaptive changes in vestibular and cognitive function relate to changes in manual crew override proficiency, and (3) compare performance during late “just-in-time” on-board training with early post-flight crew performance. The impact of spaceflight on piloting capability will be assessed from pre- versus post-flight changes in crewmembers assigned to either short duration (< 30 day) or long duration (~6- month) missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Individual differences in post-flight vestibular and cognitive changes include motion sickness reports, measures of tilt motion perception accuracy and precision, and dual-task tracking. During the 6DOF lunar simulation, the crew will manually takeover attitude and rate-of-descent to the nominal or re-designated landing aim point during the approach phase. The outcome measures for the lunar crew override tasks will be the percent time maintaining actual vehicle states, e.g., attitude and rate-of-descent, within recommended guidance during the landing approach, number and maximum deviation outside limits, and root mean square error (RMSE). Given that “just-in-time” (JIT) training is an operational expectation for the Human Landing System (HLS) program, all participants will perform late inflight JIT training for each manual crew override task in which they will participate. Crew proficiency will be captured inflight during JIT training that will be implemented on a laptop with hand controllers to allow the crewmember to practice the landing task procedures like the approach implemented for JIT training with Shuttle landing and ISS telerobotic tasks. COUNTERMEASURE UPDATES The lunar lander simulation has been implemented onto a two-laptop display system where subjects select from alternative landing points, based upon avoiding hazards that the on-board system identifies during the landing. The subject makes inputs using a rotational hand controller (i.e., joystick) and a translational hand controller, which are processed by simulated vehicle dynamics to update the vehicle attitude and rate of descent. Subjects will utilize a combination of flight, situation, and status displays to monitor the state of the simulated vehicle. The simulation exports tilt and translation movements to a 6DOF motion base synced to visual movements and provides representative vestibular cues to the subject while performing the task inside an enclosed cabin featuring a simulated lunar out-the-window view and a heads-down lander cockpit view. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew override capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew override performance will help better characterize the manual control risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. The inclusion of “just-in-time” on-board training will ensure we are characterizing changes in override proficiency with this expected countermeasure in place. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors acknowledge contributions from Draper, HLS Joint Test Panel, Crew HLS Interfaces for Piloting Working Group, and Dynamic Skills Trainer (DST) Lab toward the development of the lunar landing simulation. This project is funded by the Human Health Countermeasures Element.

Austin M Bollinger↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗

NASA NTRS2019

Agile Approach to Assuring the Safety-Critical Embedded Software for NASA's Orion Spacecraft

Human-rated missions like those in NASA's Orion Program continue to grow in complexity. The role of software in achieving ambitious mission objectives has expanded dramatically in the last few decades. Assuring the safety and performance of the embedded flight software is quickly growing beyond the reach of traditional methods and resource levels. The methods used to build these software-dominant systems evolve in an on-going attempt to keep pace with the scope of our ambitions. Agile software development is now commonplace. The long timelines and large batches of work associated with traditional methods are being replaced by rapid delivery of small increments _ as system capabilities are realized in waves. Assurance of these critical software capabilities must therefore conquer an ever-expanding frontier of challenges, and do so with an approach matched to the evolving development methods. This paper recounts the journey of the Orion Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) team as we addressed this dynamic environment. Widening our aperture to encompass a dramatically larger mission scope, while adjusting our cadence to synchronize with the rapid pace of agile software development, a new approach to IV&V is emerging. This approach is characterized by a sharper focus on mission capabilities, matched with a method to dynamically _follow the risk' as the IV&V team delivers more compelling assurance data in waves. Traditional methods prevalent in IV&V tend to scope the work using artifacts of the development process as they evolve from preliminary to final versions, and the pace of delivery was synchronized with the development timelines prevalent in the waterfall lifecycle. That more static approach is out of phase with the demands of the new environment. Scoping work according to the critical capabilities of the system (rather than artifacts of development) and synchronizing with the rapid pace of agile development, we are moving toward more effective parity with the demands of the environment. We explain the concrete steps we took, the principles that motivated our choices, and the results we have achieved to date.

Capability based assurance↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic land use implications of rapidly expanding and evolving wind power deployment

Abstract The expansion of wind power poses distinct and varied geographic challenges to a sustainable energy transition. However, current knowledge of its land use impacts and synergies is limited by reliance on static characterizations that overlook the role of turbine technology and plant design in mediating interactions with the environment. Here, we investigate how wind technology development and innovation have shaped landscape interactions with social and ecological systems within the United States and contribute to evolving land area requirements. This work assesses trends in key land use facets of wind power using a holistic set of metrics to establish an evidence base that researchers, technology designers, land use managers, and policymakers can use in envisioning how future wind-intensive energy systems may be jointly optimized for clean energy, social, and environmental objectives. Since 2000, we find dynamic land occupancy patterns and regional trends that are driven by advancing technology and geographic factors. Though most historical U.S. wind deployment has been confined to the temperate grassland biome in the nation’s interior, regional expansion has implicated diverse land use and cover types. A large percentage of the typical wind plant footprint (∼96% to > 99%) is not directly impacted by permanent physical infrastructure, allowing for multiple uses in the spaces between turbines. Surprisingly, turbines are commonly close to built structures. Moreover, rangeland and cropland have supported 93.4% of deployment, highlighting potential synergies with agricultural lands. Despite broadly decreasing capacity densities, offsetting technology improvements have stabilized power densities. Land use intensity, defined as the ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation of wind facilities, has also trended downwards. Although continued deployment on disturbed lands, and in close proximity to existing wind facilities and other infrastructure, could minimize the extent of impacts, ambitious decarbonization trajectories may predispose particular biomes to cumulative effects and risks from regional wind power saturation. Increased land-use and sustainability feedback in technology and plant design will be critical to sustainable management of wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Retrospectives: Intersection of Spaceflight Stressors and Microbial Risk to Crew and Craft

OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal,skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment,the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics.Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities.Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.

Countermeasures↗

NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Extraction of Airport Features from High Resolution Satellite Imagery for Design and Risk Assessment

The LPA Group, consisting of 17 offices located throughout the eastern and central United States is an architectural, engineering and planning firm specializing in the development of Airports, Roads and Bridges. The primary focus of this ARC project is concerned with assisting their aviation specialists who work in the areas of Airport Planning, Airfield Design, Landside Design, Terminal Building Planning and design, and various other construction services. The LPA Group wanted to test the utility of high-resolution commercial satellite imagery for the purpose of extracting airport elevation features in the glide path areas surrounding the Columbia Metropolitan Airport. By incorporating remote sensing techniques into their airport planning process, LPA wanted to investigate whether or not it is possible to save time and money while achieving the equivalent accuracy as traditional planning methods. The Affiliate Research Center (ARC) at the University of South Carolina investigated the use of remotely sensed imagery for the extraction of feature elevations in the glide path zone. A stereo pair of IKONOS panchromatic satellite images, which has a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 m, was used to determine elevations of aviation obstructions such as buildings, trees, towers and fence-lines. A validation dataset was provided by the LPA Group to assess the accuracy of the measurements derived from the IKONOS imagery. The initial goal of this project was to test the utility of IKONOS imagery in feature extraction using ERDAS Stereo Analyst. This goal was never achieved due to problems with ERDAS software support of the IKONOS sensor model and the unavailability of imperative sensor model information from Space Imaging. The obstacles encountered in this project pertaining to ERDAS Stereo Analyst and IKONOS imagery will be reviewed in more detail later in this report. As a result of the technical difficulties with Stereo Analyst, ERDAS OrthoBASE was used to derive aviation obstruction measurements for this project. After collecting ancillary data such as GPS locations, South Carolina Geodetic Survey and Aero Dynamics ground survey points to set up the OrthoBASE Block File, measurements were taken of the various glide path obstructions and compared to the validation dataset. This process yielded the following conclusions: The IKONOS stereo model in conjunction with Imagine OrthoBASE can provide The LPA Group with a fast and cost efficient method for assessing aviation obstructions. Also, by creating our own stereo model we achieved any accuracy better currently available commercial products.

Robinson, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Tabletop Tool for Modeling Life Support Systems

This paper describes the development plan for a comprehensive research and diagnostic tool for aspects of advanced life support systems in space-based laboratories. Specifically it aims to build a high fidelity tabletop model that can be used for the purpose of risk mitigation, failure mode analysis, contamination tracking, and testing reliability. We envision a comprehensive approach involving experimental work coupled with numerical simulation to develop this diagnostic tool. It envisions a 10% scale transparent model of a space platform such as the International Space Station that operates with water or a specific matched index of refraction liquid as the working fluid. This allows the scaling of a 10 ft x 10 ft x 10 ft room with air flow to 1 ft x 1 ft x 1 ft tabletop model with water/liquid flow. Dynamic similitude for this length scale dictates model velocities to be 67% of full-scale and thereby the time scale of the model to represent 15% of the full- scale system; meaning identical processes in the model are completed in 15% of the full- scale time. The use of an index matching fluid (fluid that matches the refractive index of cast acrylic, the model material) allows making the entire model (with complex internal geometry) transparent and hence conducive to non-intrusive optical diagnostics. So using such a system one can test environment control parameters such as core flows (axial flows), cross flows (from registers and diffusers), potential problem areas such as flow short circuits, inadequate oxygen content, build up of other gases beyond desirable levels, test mixing processes within the system at local nodes or compartments and assess the overall system performance. The system allows quantitative measurements of contaminants introduced in the system and allows testing and optimizing the tracking process and removal of contaminants. The envisaged system will be modular and hence flexible for quick configuration change and subsequent testing. The data and inferences from the tests will allow for improvements in the development and design of next generation life support systems and configurations.

Ramachandran, N.↗