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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Social Disparities of Pain and Pain Intensity Among Women Diagnosed With Early Stage Breast Cancer

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers among women in the United States and pain is the most common side effect of breast cancer and its treatment. Yet, the relationships between social determinants of pain and pain experience/intensity remain under-investigated. We examined the associations between social determinants of pain both at the individual level and the neighborhood level to understand how social conditions are associated with pain perception among early stage breast cancer patients. Methods: We conducted integrated statistical analysis of 1,191 women with early stage breast cancer treated at a large cancer center in Memphis, Tennessee. Combining electronic health records, patient-reported data and census data regarding residential address at the time of first diagnosis, we evaluated the relationships between social determinants and pain perception. Pain responses were self-reported by a patient as a numerical rating scale score at the patient’s initial diagnosis and follow-up clinical visits. We implemented two sets of statistical analyses of the zero-inflated Poisson model and estimated the associations between neighborhood poverty prevalence and breast cancer pain intensity. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, cancer stage, and chemotherapy, pain perception was significantly associated with poverty and blight level of the neighborhood. Results: Among women living in the highest-poverty areas, the odds of reporting pain were 2.48 times higher than those in the lowest-poverty area. Women living in the highest-blight area had 5.43 times higher odds of reporting pain than those in the lowest-blight area. Neighborhood-level social determinants were significantly associated with pain intensity among women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Conclusions: Distressed neighborhood conditions are significantly associated with higher pain perception. Breast cancer patients living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighborhoods and in poor environmental conditions reported higher pain severity compared to patients from less distressed neighborhoods. Therefore, post-diagnosis pain treatment design needs to be tailored to the social determinants of the breast cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The rapid change in mental health among college students after introduction of on-campus quarantine during the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown

Objectives Among the various impacts of disasters in terms of emotions, quarantine has been proven to result in significant increases in mental health problems. Studies of psychological resilience during outbreaks of epidemics tend to focus on long-term social quarantine. In contrast, insufficient studies have been conducted examining how rapidly negative mental health outcomes occur and how these outcomes change over time. We evaluated the time course of psychological resilience (over three different phases of quarantine) among students at Shanghai Jiao Tong University to investigate the influence of unexpected changes on college students. Methods An online survey was conducted from 5 to 7 April 2022. A structured online questionnaire was administered using a retrospective cohort trial design. Before 9 March (Period 1), individuals engaged in their usual activities without restrictions. From 9 to 23 March (Period 2), the majority of students were asked to remain in their dormitories on campus. From 24 March to early April (Period 3), restrictions were relaxed, and students were gradually allowed to participate in essential activities on campus. We quantified dynamic changes in the severity of students’ depressive symptoms over the course of these three periods. The survey consisted of five sets of self-reported questions: demographic information, lifestyle/activity restrictions, a brief mental health history, COVID-19-related background, and the Beck Depression Inventory, second edition. Results A total of 274 college students aged 18–42 years (mean = 22.34; SE = 0.24) participated in the study (58.39% undergraduate students, 41.61% graduate students; 40.51% male, 59.49% female). The proportion of students with depressive symptoms was 9.1% in Period 1, 36.1% in Period 2, and 34.67% in Period 3. Depressive symptoms increased notably with the introduction of the quarantine in Periods 2 and 3. Lower satisfaction with the food supplied and a longer duration of physical exercise per day were found to be positively associated with changes in depression severity in Periods 2 and 3. Quarantine-related psychological distress was more evident in students who were in a romantic relationship than in students who were single. Conclusion Depressive symptoms in university students rapidly increased after 2 weeks of quarantine and no perceptible reversal was observed over time. Concerning students in a relationship, ways to take physical exercise and to relax should be provided and the food supplied should be improved when young people are quarantined.

Ma, Dongni↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing heterogeneity of patient and health system delay among TB in a population with internal migrants in China

Backgrounds The diagnostic delay of tuberculosis (TB) contributes to further transmission and impedes the implementation of the End TB Strategy. Therefore, we aimed to describe the characteristics of patient delay, health system delay, and total delay among TB patients in Shanghai, identify areas at high risk for delay, and explore the potential factors of long delay at individual and spatial levels. Method The study included TB patients among migrants and residents in Shanghai between January 2010 and December 2018. Patient and health system delays exceeding 14 days and total delays exceeding 28 days were defined as long delays. Time trends of long delays were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to analyze influencing factors of long delays. Spatial analysis of delays was conducted using ArcGIS, and the hierarchical Bayesian spatial model was utilized to explore associated spatial factors. Results Overall, 61,050 TB patients were notified during the study period. Median patient, health system, and total delays were 12 days (IQR: 3–26), 9 days (IQR: 4–18), and 27 days (IQR: 15–43), respectively. Migrants, females, older adults, symptomatic visits to TB-designated facilities, and pathogen-positive were associated with longer patient delays, while pathogen-negative, active case findings and symptomatic visits to non-TB-designated facilities were associated with long health system delays (LHD). Spatial analysis revealed Chongming Island was a hotspot for patient delay, while western areas of Shanghai, with a high proportion of internal migrants and industrial parks, were at high risk for LHD. The application of rapid molecular diagnostic methods was associated with reduced health system delays. Conclusion Despite a relatively shorter diagnostic delay of TB than in the other regions in China, there was vital social-demographic and spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence of long delays in Shanghai. While the active case finding and rapid molecular diagnosis reduced the delay, novel targeted interventions are still required to address the challenges of TB diagnosis among both migrants and residents in this urban setting.

Sun, Ruoyao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying air quality co-benefits to industrial decarbonization: the local Air Emissions Tracking Atlas

Many decarbonization technologies have the added co-benefit of reducing short-lived climate pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), creating a unique opportunity for identifying strategies that promote both climate change solutions and opportunities for air quality improvement. However, stakeholders and decision-makers may struggle to quantify how these co-benefits will impact public health for the communities most affected by industrial air pollution. To address this problem, the LOCal Air Emissions Tracking Atlas (LOCAETA) fills a data availability and analysis gap by providing estimated air quality benefits from industrial decarbonization options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). These co-benefits are calculated using an algorithm that connects disparate datasets that separately report greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants at U.S. industrial facilities. Version 1.0 of LOCAETA displays the estimated primary PM 2.5 emission reduction co-benefits from additional pretreatment equipment for CCS on industrial and power facilities across the state of Louisiana, as well as the potential for VOC and NH 3 generation. The emission reductions are presented in the tool alongside facility pollutant emissions information and relevant air quality, environmental, demographic, and public health datasets, such as air toxics cancer risk, satellite and in situ pollutant measurements, and population vulnerability metrics. LOCAETA enables regulators, policymakers, environmental justice communities, and industrial and commercial users to compare and contrast quantifiable public health benefits due to air quality impacts from various climate change mitigation strategies using a free and publicly-available tool. Additional pollutant reductions can be calculated using the same methodology and will be available in future versions of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Epidemiological Investigation of a Mortality Event in a Translocated Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) Population in Northwest Florida

Nokuse Plantation, a 22,055 ha private conservation preserve in northwest Florida, is a recipient site for gopher tortoises translocated from development sites in Florida. Since 2006, Nokuse has received over 5,000 tortoises from multiple development sites. During 2013–2015, 52 tortoises were found sick (n = 14) or dead (n = 38) in multiple soft-release enclosures in which tortoises consistently exhibited clinical signs, with additional sick (n = 5) and dead (n = 5) tortoises presenting similarly during 2016–2017. When found alive, tortoises behaved abnormally (e.g., frequently out of burrows during cold weather, pacing along enclosure fencing), appeared emaciated, were lethargic, and had developed redness under plastron scutes. Similar numbers of male (n = 28) and female (n = 32) tortoises were recovered along with two of unidentified sex, including mainly adults (n = 59) and three subadults. Physical examination, blood analysis, and other diagnostics were indicative of starvation and dehydration. Most sick tortoises provided with supportive care recovered. Necropsy findings generally confirmed starvation, with no evidence of infectious pathogens or contaminants. There were no apparent differences in quality of habitat, plant community, or soil or water among affected and unaffected enclosures. Botanical surveys indicated adequate forage quality and quantity, with no poisonous exotic or native plants detected. No land management practices changed prior to this event. Analysis of epidemiological data and demographic factors from before and during this mortality event identified initial density of tortoises in the enclosures as exerting the strongest influence on detection of tortoise morbidity and mortality. We believe that the stress associated with mixing tortoises from different populations and at higher densities during translocation impacted an individual tortoise’s ability to obtain or absorb adequate nutrients from foraging, ultimately leading to a wasting condition consistent with starvation. Based on our findings, we recommend a maximum of 3 gopher tortoises per ha in soft-release enclosures for translocation, but further research is warranted to investigate the complexity of stress and social pressures associated with translocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Population Structure of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Columbia River Inferred from Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms

White sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) are the largest freshwater fish in North America, with reproducing populations in the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Fraser, and Columbia River Basins. Of these, the Columbia River is the largest, but it is also highly fragmented by hydroelectric dams, and many segments are characterized by declining abundance and persistent recruitment failure. Efforts to conserve and supplement these fish requires an understanding of their spatial genetic structure. Here, we assembled a large set of samples from throughout the Columbia River Basin, along with representative collections from adjacent basins, and genotyped them using a panel of 325 single-nucleotide markers. Results from individual- and group-based analyses of these data indicate that white sturgeon in the uppermost Columbia River Basin, in the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers, are the most distinct, while the remaining populations downstream in the basin can be described as a genetic gradient consistent with an isolation-by-distance effect. Notably, the population in the lowest reaches of the Columbia River is more distinct from the middle or upper reaches than from outside basins, and suggests historically a higher or more recent gene exchange through coastal routes than with populations in the interior Columbia Basin. Nonetheless, proximal reaches were generally only marginally or non-significantly divergent, suggesting that transplanting larvae or juveniles from nearby sources poses relatively little risk of outbreeding depression. Indeed, we inferred examples of dispersal between reaches via close-kin mark-recapture and genetic mark-recapture that indicate movement between nearby reaches is not unusual. Samples from the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers exhibited notably lower genetic diversity than the remaining samples as a result of population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and/or historical divergence. Conservation actions, such as supplementation, are underway to maintain population viability and will require balanced efforts to increase demographic abundance while maintaining genetic diversity.

Willis, Stuart C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficacy of Hair Total Mercury Content as a Biomarker of Methylmercury Exposure to Communities in the Area of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Madre de Dios, Peru

Total mercury content (THg) in hair is an accepted biomarker for chronic dietary methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. In artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) communities, the validity of this biomarker is questioned because of the potential for contamination from inorganic mercury. As mining communities may have both inorganic and organic mercury exposures, the efficacy of the hair-THg biomarker needs to be evaluated, particularly as nations begin population exposure assessments under their commitments to the Minamata Convention. We sought to validate the efficacy of hair THg for public health monitoring of MeHg exposures for populations living in ASGM communities. We quantified both THg and MeHg contents in hair from a representative subset of participants (N = 287) in a large, population-level mercury exposure assessment in the ASGM region in Madre de Dios (MDD), Peru. We compared population MeHg-THg correlations and %MeHg values with demographic variables including community location, sex, occupation, and nativity. We observed that hair MeHg-THg correlations were high (r > 0.7) for all communities, regardless of location or nativity. Specifically, for individuals within ASGM communities, 81% (121 of 150 total) had hair THg predominantly in the form of MeHg (i.e., >66% of THg) and reflective of dietary exposure to mercury. Furthermore, for individuals with hair THg exceeding the U.S. EPA threshold (1.0 μg/g), 88 out of 106 (83%) had MeHg as the predominant form. As a result, had urine THg solely been used for mercury exposure monitoring, approximately 59% of the ASGM population would have been misclassified as having low mercury exposure. Our results support the use of hair THg for monitoring of MeHg exposure of populations in ASGM settings where alternative biomarkers of MeHg exposure are not feasible.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Head and Neck Cancers: A Multidisciplinary Survey

Artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been introduced in various disciplines but remain rather unused in head and neck (H&N) cancers. This survey aimed to infer the current applications of and attitudes toward AI in the multidisciplinary care of H&N cancers. From November 2020 to June 2022, a web-based questionnaire examining the relationship between AI usage and professionals’ demographics and attitudes was delivered to different professionals involved in H&N cancers through social media and mailing lists. A total of 139 professionals completed the questionnaire. Only 49.7% of the respondents reported having experience with AI. The most frequent AI users were radiologists (66.2%). Significant predictors of AI use were primary specialty (V = 0.455; p < 0.001), academic qualification and age. AI’s potential was seen in the improvement of diagnostic accuracy (72%), surgical planning (64.7%), treatment selection (57.6%), risk assessment (50.4%) and the prediction of complications (45.3%). Among participants, 42.7% had significant concerns over AI use, with the most frequent being the ‘loss of control’ (27.6%) and ‘diagnostic errors’ (57.0%). This survey reveals limited engagement with AI in multidisciplinary H&N cancer care, highlighting the need for broader implementation and further studies to explore its acceptance and benefits.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Genetic Drift and Gene Flow Affect the Geographic Distribution of Female Plants in Gynodioecious Lobelia siphilitica?

Variation in population sex ratio is particularly pronounced in gynodioecious angiosperms. Extremely high female frequencies in gynodioecious populations cannot be readily explained by selective forces alone. To assess the contributions of drift and gene flow to extreme sex-ratio variation, we documented sex ratio and population size in 92 populations of Lobelia siphilitica across its range and genotyped plants using plastid and nuclear genetic markers. Similarity in spatial patterns of genetic and demographic variables may suggest that drift and/or gene flow have contributed to population sex-ratio variation in L. siphilitica. We found strong spatial structuring of extremely high female frequencies: populations with >50% female plants are restricted to the south–central portion of the range. However, we did not detect any spatial structuring in population size nor metrics of genetic diversity, suggesting that extreme variation in female frequency is not strongly affected by drift or gene flow. Extreme sex-ratio variation is frequently observed in gynodioecious plants, but its causes are difficult to identify. Further investigation into mechanisms that create or maintain the spatial structure of sex ratios in gynodioecious species will provide much needed insight.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Barriers and Benefits: Understanding Riders’ Views on Pooled Rideshare in the U.S.

This manuscript provides actionable recommendations to enhance user satisfaction and address existing barriers regarding pooled rideshare (PR) in the United States. Despite PR’s intended benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion and cost savings, its adoption remains limited. To identify these actionable items, a U.S. nationwide survey with 5385 participants explored transportation preferences, barriers, and motivators for PR use in the summer of 2021. First, two factor analyses were conducted. The first factor analysis identified the five factors associated with one’s willingness to consider PR (time/cost, traffic/environment, safety, privacy, and service experience). The second factor analysis revealed the four factors related to ways to optimize one’s PR experience (comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety). Privacy concerns, for instance, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. A structural equation model evaluated the relationships among these nine key factors influencing PR usage to develop the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM). The privacy, safety, trust service, and convenience factors each had a significant large effect (Cohen’s f 2 > 0.35) on the model. PRAM was extended using multigroup analyses to reveal the nuanced impact of 16 demographics, including gender, generation, rideshare experience, etc., highlighting the need for tailored strategies to improve PR acceptance through the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMAs). Multiple workshops were held with diverse audiences to translate the team’s findings to date into 84 actionable recommendations, categorized across topical areas like safety, routing, driver and passenger selection, user education, etc. These findings are a foundation for a future study to determine which items resonate with different user groups. In the meantime, the actional items serve as a user-driven resource for policymakers, transportation network companies, and researchers, offering a roadmap to potential improvements to PR services to address existing concerns with the goal of increasing the usage of PR.

actionable recommendations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two Views of the Radius Gap and the Role of Light Curve Fitting

Recently, several groups have resolved a gap that bifurcates planets between the size of Earth and Neptune into two populations. The location and depth of this feature is an important signature of the physical processes that form and sculpt planets. In particular, planets residing in the radius gap are valuable probes of these processes as they may be undergoing the final stages of envelope loss. Here, we discuss two views of the radius gap by Fulton & Petigura (F18) and Van Eylen et al. (V18). In V18, the gap is wider and more devoid of planets. This is due, in part, to V18's more precise measurements of planet radius R{sub p}. Thanks to Gaia, uncertainties in stellar radii R{sub ⋆} are no longer the limiting uncertainties in determining R{sub p} for the majority of Kepler planets; instead, errors in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} dominate. V18's analysis incorporated short-cadence photometry along with constraints on mean stellar density that enabled more accurate determinations of R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆}. In the F18 analysis, less accurate R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} blurs the boundary the radius gap. The differences in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} are largest at high impact parameter (b≳0.8) and often exceed 10%. This motivates excluding high-b planets from demographic studies, but identifying such planets from long-cadence photometry alone is challenging. We show that transit duration can serve as an effective proxy, and we leverage this information to enhance the contrast between the super-Earth and sub-Neptune populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets

The chemical abundances of planet-hosting stars offer a glimpse into the composition of planet-forming environments. To further understand this connection, we make the first ever measurement of the correlation between planet occurrence and chemical abundances for ten different elements (C, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, and Ni). Leveraging data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia to derive precise stellar parameters (${\sigma }_{{R}_{\star }}\approx 2.3 \% $, ${\sigma }_{{M}_{\star }}\approx 4.5 \% $) for a sample of 1018 Kepler Objects of Interest, we construct a sample of well-vetted Kepler planets with precisely measured radii (${\sigma }_{{R}_{p}}\approx 3.4 \% $). After controlling for biases in the Kepler detection pipeline and the selection function of the APOGEE survey, we characterize the relationship between planet occurrence and chemical abundance as the number density of nuclei of each element in a star's photosphere raised to a power, β. varies by planet type, but is consistent within our uncertainties across all ten elements. For hot planets (P = 1–10 days), an enhancement in any element of 0.1 dex corresponds to an increased occurrence of ≈20% for super-Earths (Rp = 1–1.9 R⊕) and ≈60% for sub-Neptunes (Rp = 1.9–4 R⊕). Trends are weaker for warm (P = 10–100 days) planets of all sizes and for all elements, with the potential exception of sub-Saturns (Rp = 4–8 R⊕). Finally, we conclude this work with a caution to interpreting trends between planet occurrence and stellar age due to degeneracies caused by Galactic chemical evolution and make predictions for planet occurrence rates in nearby open clusters to facilitate demographics studies of young planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forward Modeling Populations of Flares from Tidal Disruptions of Stars by Supermassive Black Holes

Detections of the tidal disruption flares (TDFs) of stars by supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are rapidly accumulating as optical surveys improve. These detections may provide constraints on SMBH demographics, stellar dynamics, and stellar evolution in galaxies. To maximize this scientific impact, we require a better understanding of how astrophysical parameters interact with survey selection effects in setting the properties of detected flares. In this study, we develop a framework for modeling the distributions of optical TDF detections in surveys across attributes of the host galaxies and the flares themselves. This model folds in effects of the stellar disruption rate in each galaxy, the flare luminosity and temperature distributions, the effects of obscuration and reddening by dust in the host galaxy, and survey selection criteria. We directly apply this model to the sample of TDFs detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility, and find that the overall flare detection rate is in line with simple theoretical expectation. The model can also reproduce the distribution of total stellar mass and redshift of the host galaxies, but fails to match all details of the detected flares, such as their luminosity and temperature distributions. We also find that dust obscuration likely plays an important role in suppressing the TDF detection rate in star-forming galaxies. While we do not find that the unusual preference of TDFs to have hosts in post-starburst galaxies in the "green valley" can be entirely explained by selection effects, our model can help to quantify the true rate enhancement in those galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Air Quality Changes after Implementation of Mitigation Measures during a Pandemic: A Scoping Review of Literature in the United States

Traffic-related emissions continue to be a significant source of air pollution in the United States (US) and around the globe. Evidence has shown that previous policies implemented to restrict-traffic flows have affected air pollution levels. Thus, mitigation strategies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic that modified population-level mobility patterns provide a unique opportunity to study air pollution change across the US. For instance, to slow the spread of the pandemic, state and local governments started implementing various mitigation actions, including stay-at-home directives, social distancing measures, school closures, and travel restrictions. This scoping review aimed to summarize the existing evidence about how air quality changed through mitigation practices throughout the pandemic in the US. We found 66 articles that fit our inclusion criteria. Generally, the consolidated results revealed that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) decreased across the country. Studies observed mixed directions and magnitudes of change for fine and coarse particulate matter (PM 2.5 , PM 10 ), ozone (O 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Few articles tried to explain this notable heterogeneity in air quality changes by associating contextual factors, such as mobility, traffic flow, and demographic factors. However, all studies agreed that the change in air pollution was nonuniform across the US and even varied within a city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗