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DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Materials & Manufacturing Technology (AMMT): Process understanding for qualifying LPBF 316H SS

Investigations were conducted in fiscal years (FY) 2023 and 2024 to gather relevant data sets addressing challenges related to qualifying 316H stainless steel (SS) for use in future nuclear reactors. This work was a collaborative effort involving researchers from Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Key outcomes included: • Development of process-structure-property data sets to better understand the relationships between manufacturing processes, material structure, and performance characteristics. • Establishment of an in-situ monitoring system to link these various data sets together. • Detailed characterization of the raw material feedstock to further strengthen the understanding of process-structure and process-property relationships. Building on this foundation, in FY25 there was interest in exploring the behavior of additively manufactured 316H SS under different test conditions to support the overall material qualification process. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was tasked with providing specimen samples to the collaborating labs, who then conducted a round-robin study examining factors like selective heat treatment, low-cycle fatigue (LCF), and tensile-creep (T-C) properties. Additionally, high-temperature differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was performed by LANL to better understand how the material's thermal characteristics change as it is heated up to the melting point. This provided a more comprehensive understanding of the material's behavior. The combined results from these investigations could potentially be used to support the inclusion of 316H stainless steel in Section III, Division 5 of the relevant codes and standards, allowing its use in future nuclear reactor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Standardized Data to Improve Understanding and Modeling of Soil Nitrogen at Continental Scale

Abstract Nitrogen (N) is a key limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems, but there remain critical gaps in our ability to predict and model controls on soil N cycling. This may be in part due to lack of standardized sampling across broad spatial–temporal scales. Here, we introduce a continentally distributed, publicly available data set collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) that can help fill these gaps. First, we detail the sampling design and methods used to collect and analyze soil inorganic N pool and net flux rate data from 47 terrestrial sites. We address methodological challenges in generating a standardized data set, even for a network using uniform protocols. Then, we evaluate sources of variation within the sampling design and compare measured net N mineralization to simulated fluxes from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We observed wide spatiotemporal variation in inorganic N pool sizes and net transformation rates. Site explained the most variation in NEON’s stratified sampling design, followed by plots within sites. Organic horizons had larger pools and net N transformation rates than mineral horizons on a sample weight basis. The majority of sites showed some degree of seasonality in N dynamics, but overall these temporal patterns were not matched by CESM2, leading to poor correspondence between observed and modeled data. Looking forward, these data can reveal new insights into controls on soil N cycling, especially in the context of other environmental data sets provided by NEON, and should be leveraged to improve predictive modeling of the soil N cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constraining ΛCDM cosmological parameters with Einstein Telescope mock data

ABSTRACT We investigate the capability of Einstein Telescope to constrain the cosmological parameters of the non-flat ΛCDM cosmological model. Two types of mock data sets are considered depending on whether or not a short gamma-ray burst is detected, and associated with the gravitational wave emitted by binary neutron stars merger, using the THESEUS satellite. Depending on the mock data set, two statistical estimators are applied: one assumes that the redshift is known, while the other marginalizes over it assuming a specific redshift prior distribution. We demonstrate that (i) using mock catalogues collecting gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems to which a short gamma-ray burst has been associated, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.40$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.09$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.07$; while (ii) using mock catalogues collecting all gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems for which an electromagnetic counterpart has not been detected, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.04$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.01$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.01$, once the redshift probability distribution of GW events is known from from population synthesis simulations and/or the measure of the tidal deformability parameter. These results show an improvement of a factor 2–75 with respect to earlier results using complementary data sets.

Califano, Matteo↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Vision for Coupling Operation of US Fusion Facilities with HPC Systems and the Implications for Workflows and Data Management

The operation of large US Department of Energy (DOE) research facilities, like the DIII-D National Fusion Facility, results in the collection of complex multi-dimensional scientific datasets, both experimental and model-generated. In the future, it is envisioned that integrated data analysis coupled with large-scale high performance computing (HPC) simulations will be used to improve experimental planning and operation. Practically, massive data sets from these simulations provide the physics basis for generation of both reduced semi-analytic and machine-learning-based models. Storage of both HPC simulation datasets (generated from US DOE leadership computing facilities) and experimental datasets presents significant challenges. In this paper, we present a vision for a DOE-wide data management workflow that integrates US DOE fusion facilities with leadership computing facilities. Data persistence and long-term availability beyond the length of allocated projects is essential, particularly for verification and recalibration of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) models. Because these data sets are often generated and shared among hundreds of users across multiple leadership computing facility centers, they would benefit from cross-platform accessibility, persistent identifiers (e.g. DOI, or digital object identifier), and provenance tracking. Here, the ability to handle different data access patterns suggests that a combination of low cost, high latency (e.g. for storing ML training sets) and high cost, low latency systems (e.g. for real-time, integrated machine control feedback) may be needed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enabling modern data discovery for atmospheric measurements

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is a US Department of Energy Office of Science user facility that is managed and operated through a collaborative effort led by nine US Department of Energy national laboratories. The ARM Data Center, located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is responsible for the timely collection, processing, and delivery of data products to the scientific community. The ARM Data Center holds more than 11,000 data products, including metadata collected from field campaigns, instruments, value-added products, and principal investigator–contributed data. These data sets are checked for successful transfer (for most data, this transfer is carried out automatically via the network; however, some of the largest data sets and some of the most remote sites require manual shipping of hard disks) and both the data and metadata are processed to a standard format, which is an ARM-standardized structure, via the Network Common Data Form. The Network Common Data Form is a self-describing binary format with many compatible software tools. Once processed, the data are cataloged, stored in the ARM Data Archive, and made discoverable through association with an array of metadata-characterizing information, such as location and measurement classification. These metadata enable powerful search capabilities through the ARM Data Center Data Discovery interface. This paper discusses the workflow of how the new discovery system has been redesigned from user requirements and how the data are distributed to the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decomprolute is a benchmarking platform designed for multiomics-based tumor deconvolution

Tumor deconvolution is a reliable way to disentangle the diverse cell types that comprise solid tumors. To date, however, both the algorithms developed to deconvolve tumor samples, and the gold standard datasets used to assess the algorithms are geared toward the analysis of gene expression (e.g., RNA-seq) rather than protein levels in tumor cells. While gene expression is less expensive to measure, protein levels provide a more accurate view of immune markers. To facilitate the development as well as improve the reproducibility and reusability of multi-omic deconvolution algorithms, we introduce Decomprolute, a Common Workflow Language framework that leverages containerization to compare tumor deconvolution algorithms across multiomic data sets. Decomprolute incorporates the large-scale multiomic data sets produced by the Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium (CPTAC), which include matched mRNA expression and proteomic data from thousands of tumors across multiple cancer types to build a fully open-source, containerized proteogenomic tumor deconvolution benchmarking platform. The platform consists of modular architecture and it comes with well-defined input and output formats at each module. As a result, it is robust and extendable easily with additional algorithms or analyses. The platform is available for access and use at http://pnnl-compbio.github.io/decomprolute.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Network Anomaly Detection Using Federated Learning

The internet is turning out to be an integral part of every-one's lives as more and more devices are being connected to serve societal needs. Our work is motivated by two ma-jor observations. Firstly, one drawback of connecting to the network is the threat of network attacks that can compromise users' private information, leading to data loss and adversely affecting productivity. There are several traditional security mechanisms to defend against these attacks, such as firewalls, virtual private networks (VPNs), demilitarized zones (DMZs), and vulnerability scanners. One way to prevent these attacks is early detection and prevention. However, these kinds of architecture do not scale very well because of their centralized nature. Secondly, we observe from heuristics and data set distributions that the majority of the requests made to a server are innocuous. Therefore, almost all server request data sets are highly imbalanced, weighted highly towards the harmless requests.

Marfo, William↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient 3-D velocity model building using joint inline and crossline plane-wave wave-equation migration velocity analyses

SUMMARY Wave-equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is an image-domain inversion method for velocity model building. Automatic plane-wave WEMVA (PWEMVA) calculates the moveouts of plane-wave common-image gathers (CIGs) by searching a best-fitting parabola with semblance analysis and backprojects residual CIG moveouts into wavefield wave paths with a reflection tomographic kernel. However, 3-D PWEMVA is very computationally expensive because 3-D reflection tomographic inversion requires at least five 3-D reverse-time migrations per iteration and stores two types of source wavefields at model boundaries. We develop a joint inline and crossline PWEMVA method for efficient 3-D velocity model building. We alternatively implement the inline and crossline PWEMVAs with a constraint for each other, in which we iteratively construct the 3-D velocity model update through 1-D spline interpolation of 2-D gradients. The inline and crossline joint inversion is practical since PWEMVA only inverts for low-wavenumber velocity perturbations along wave paths, and the method can take less than 1 per cent of the computational cost of full 3-D PWEMVA. To construct unaliased plane waves for our joint inline and crossline PWEMVA, we develop a 3-D data interpolation method in the frequency–wavenumber (FK) domain to recover regularly and randomly missing traces. The method minimizes the misfit on sufficiently localized data subsets with iterative optimal step lengths and a gradient preconditioner that iteratively selects dominant dips along different azimuths. In numerical experiments, we use a 3-D synthetic seismic data set and a land 3-D field seismic data set acquired at the Farnsworth CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery) field to demonstrate the efficacy of our velocity model building and data interpolation methods.

Liu, Xuejian↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of soil protist richness and community composition are influenced by primer pair, annealing temperature, and bioinformatics choices

ABSTRACT Protists are a diverse and understudied group of microbial eukaryotic organisms especially in terrestrial environments. Advances in molecular methods are increasing our understanding of the distribution and functions of these creatures; however, there is a vast array of choices researchers make including barcoding genes, primer pairs, PCR settings, and bioinformatic options that can impact the outcome of protist community surveys. Here, we tested four commonly used primer pairs targeting the V4 and V9 regions of the 18S rRNA gene using different PCR annealing temperatures and processed the sequences with different bioinformatic parameters in 10 diverse soils to evaluate how primer pair, amplification parameters, and bioinformatic choices influence the composition and richness of protist and non-protist taxa using Illumina sequencing. Our results showed that annealing temperature influenced sequencing depth and protist taxon richness for most primer pairs, and that merging forward and reverse sequencing reads for the V4 primer pairs dramatically reduced the number of sequences and taxon richness of protists. The data sets of primers that targeted the same 18S rRNA gene region (e.g., V4 or V9) had similar protist community compositions; however, data sets from primers targeting the V4 18S rRNA gene region detected a greater number of protist taxa compared to those prepared with primers targeting the V9 18S rRNA region. There was limited overlap of protist taxa between data sets targeting the two different gene regions (80/549 taxa). Together, we show that laboratory and bioinformatic choices can substantially affect the results and conclusions about protist diversity and community composition using metabarcoding. IMPORTANCE Ecosystem functioning is driven by the activity and interactions of the microbial community, in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Protists are a group of highly diverse, mostly unicellular microbes whose identity and roles in terrestrial ecosystem ecology have been largely ignored until recently. This study highlights the importance of choices researchers make, such as primer pair, on the results and conclusions about protist diversity and community composition in soils. In order to better understand the roles protist taxa play in terrestrial ecosystems, biases in methodological and analytical choices should be understood and acknowledged.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multifrequency study of sub-parsec jets with the Event Horizon Telescope

Context. The 2017 observing campaign of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) images at the observing frequency of 230 GHz, leading to a number of unique studies on black holes and relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei (AGN). In total, eighteen sources were observed, including the main science targets, Sgr A* and M 87, and various calibrators. Sixteen sources were AGN.Aims. We investigated the morphology of the sixteen AGN in the EHT 2017 data set, focusing on the properties of the VLBI cores: size, flux density, and brightness temperature. We studied their dependence on the observing frequency in order to compare it with the Blandford-Königl (BK) jet model. In particular, we aimed to study the signatures of jet acceleration and magnetic energy conversion.Methods. We modeled the source structure of seven AGN in the EHT 2017 data set using linearly polarized circular Gaussian components (1749+096, 1055+018, BL Lac, J0132–1654, J0006–0623, CTA 102, and 3C 454.3) and collected results for the other nine AGN from dedicated EHT publications, complemented by lower frequency data in the 2–86 GHz range. Combining these data into a multifrequency EHT+ data set, we studied the dependences of the VLBI core component flux density, size, and brightness temperature on the frequency measured in the AGN host frame (and hence on the distance from the central black hole), characterizing them with power law fits. We compared the observations with the BK jet model and estimated the magnetic field strength dependence on the distance from the central black hole.Results. Our observations spanning event horizon to parsec scales indicate a deviation from the standard BK model, particularly in the decrease of the brightness temperature with the observing frequency. Only some of the discrepancies may be alleviated by tweaking the model parameters or the jet collimation profile. Either bulk acceleration of the jet material, energy transfer from the magnetic field to the particles, or both are required to explain the observations. For our sample, we estimate a general radial dependence of the Doppler factor δ ∝ r≤0.5. This interpretation is consistent with a magnetically accelerated sub-parsec jet. We also estimate a steep decrease of the magnetic field strength with radius B ∝ r−3, hinting at jet acceleration or efficient magnetic energy dissipation.Key words: techniques: interferometric / galaxies: active / galaxies: jets / galaxies: nuclei / quasars: general / quasars: supermassive black holes⋆⋆ Deceased.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

DeepZipper: A Novel Deep-learning Architecture for Lensed Supernovae Identification

Large-scale astronomical surveys have the potential to capture data on large numbers of strongly gravitationally lensed supernovae (LSNe). To facilitate timely analysis and spectroscopic follow-up before the supernova fades, an LSN needs to be identified soon after it begins. To quickly identify LSNe in optical survey data sets, we designed ZipperNet, a multibranch deep neural network that combines convolutional layers (traditionally used for images) with long short-term memory layers (traditionally used for time series). We tested ZipperNet on the task of classifying objects from four categories—no lens, galaxy-galaxy lens, lensed Type-Ia supernova, lensed core-collapse supernova—within high-fidelity simulations of three cosmic survey data sets: the Dark Energy Survey, Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and a Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. Among our results, we find that for the LSST-like data set, ZipperNet classifies LSNe with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.97, predicts the spectroscopic type of the lensed supernovae with 79% accuracy, and demonstrates similarly high performance for LSNe 1–2 epochs after first detection. We anticipate that a model like ZipperNet, which simultaneously incorporates spatial and temporal information, can play a significant role in the rapid identification of lensed transient systems in cosmic survey experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Benchmarks for the Classification of Equivalent Circuit Models from Electrochemical Impedance Spectra

Analysis of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) data for electrochemical systems often consists of defining an Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) using expert knowledge and then optimizing the model parameters to deconvolute various resistance, capacitive, inductive, or diffusion responses. For small data sets, this procedure can be conducted manually; however, it is not feasible to manually define a proper ECM for extensive data sets with a wide range of EIS responses. Automatic identification of an ECM would substantially accelerate the analysis of large sets of EIS data. We showcase machine learning methods to classify the ECMs of 9,300 impedance spectra provided by QuantumScape for the BatteryDEV hackathon. The best-performing approach is a gradient-boosted tree model utilizing a library to automatically generate features, followed by a random forest model using the raw spectral data. A convolutional neural network using boolean images of Nyquist representations is presented as an alternative, although it achieves a lower accuracy. We publish the data and open source the associated code. The approaches described in this article can serve as benchmarks for further studies. A key remaining challenge is the identifiability of the labels, underlined by the model performances and the comparison of misclassified spectra.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2019

EGS Collab Testbed 1: Second Set Tracer Test Results

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. The first multi-well experimental site was established at the 4850 level in the Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, where hydraulic fractures were created at an injection well drilled sub-horizontal from the drift. This file contains the second set of tracer data (also include the data uploaded previously, https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/1128) for the EGS Collab testbed. The tracer tests were conducted during October 2018 - November 2019. Injected tracers include DNA, C-dots (fluorescein nano particles), fluorescein, rhodamine-b, sodium chloride, lithium bromide and cesium iodine. The tracers have been detected in three flowing wells located about 7.5 to 9 meters away from the injection interval. The tracer breakthrough curves from these locations have been adjusted to account for the residence time in the injection and production tubing. The details about the tracer test can be found in Background and Methods of Tracer Tests (Mattson et al. (2019,a,b)) (also included in this package). References Mattson, E.D., Neupane, G., Plummer, M.A., Hawkins, A., Zhang, Y. and the EGS Collab Team 2019a. Preliminary Collab fracture characterization results from flow and tracer testing efforts. In Proceedings 44th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, edited, Stanford University, Stanford, California. Mattson, E.D., Neupane, G., Hawkins, A., Burghardt, J., Ingraham, M., Plummer, M., and the EGS Collab Team, 2019b. Fracture tracer injection response to pressure perturbations at an injection well. GRC Transactions, Vol. 43, 2019. Neupane, Ghanashyam, Earl Mattson, Adam Hawkins, Mitchell Plummer, and Yuran Zhang. EGS Collab Testbed 1: Tracer data sets. No. 1128. DOE Geothermal Data Repository; Idaho National Laboratory, 2019.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate Prediction of Adiabatic Ionization Potentials of Organic Molecules using Quantum Chemistry Assisted Machine Learning

In previous work (Dandu et al., J. Phys. Chem. A, 2022, 126, 4528–4536), we were successful in predicting accurate atomization energies of organic molecules using machine learning (ML) models, obtaining an accuracy as low as 0.1 kcal/mol compared to the G4MP2 method. In this work, we extend the use of these ML models to adiabatic ionization potentials on data sets of energies generated using quantum chemical calculations. Atomic specific corrections that were found to improve atomization energies from quantum chemical calculations have also been used in this study to improve ionization potentials. Here, the quantum chemical calculations were performed on 3405 molecules containing eight or fewer non-hydrogen atoms derived from the QM9 data set, using the B3LYP functional with the 6–31G(2df,p) basis set for optimization. Low-fidelity IPs for these structures were obtained using two density functional methods: B3LYP/6–31+G(2df,p) and ωB97XD/6–311+G(3df,2p). Highly accurate G4MP2 calculations were performed on these optimized structures to obtain high-fidelity IPs to use in ML models based on the low-fidelity IPs. Our best performing ML methods gave IPs of organic molecules within a mean absolute deviation of 0.035 eV from the G4MP2 IPs for the whole data set. This work demonstrates that ML predictions assisted by quantum chemical calculations can be used to successfully predict IPs of organic molecules for use in high throughput screening.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

OSW Consortium 2 - Validated National Offshore Wind Resource Dataset with Uncertainty Quantification (CRADA Report)

This research has led to the development of the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), which offers the latest wind resource information for offshore regions in the United States. NOW-23 supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published a decade ago and is currently a primary resource for wind resource assessments and grid integration studies in the contiguous United States. By incorporating advancements in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOW-23 delivers an updated and cutting-edge product to stakeholders. As part of this project, we also developed a summary of the uncertainty quantification in NOW-23, along with NOW-WAKES, a 1-year post-construction data set that quantifies expected offshore wake effects in the US Mid-Atlantic lease areas. Stakeholders can access the NOW-23 data set at https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2020

On negative induced polarization in frequency domain measurements

SUMMARY Induced polarization (IP) has been widely used to non-invasively characterize electrical conduction and polarization in the subsurface resulting from an applied electric field. Earth materials exhibit a lossy capacitance defined by a negative intrinsic phase in frequency-domain IP (FDIP) or a positive intrinsic chargeability in time-domain IP (TDIP). However, error-free positive apparent phase or negative apparent chargeability (i.e. negative IP effects) can occur in IP measurements over heterogeneous media. While negative IP effects in TDIP data sets have been discussed, no studies have addressed this topic in detail for FDIP measurements. We describe theory and numerical modelling to explain the origin of negative IP effects in FDIP measurements. A positive apparent phase may occur when a relatively high polarizability feature falls into negative sensitivity zones of complex resistivity measurements. The polarity of the apparent phase is determined by the distribution of subsurface intrinsic phase and resistivity, with the resistivity impacting the apparent phase polarity via its control on the sensitivity distribution. A physical explanation for the occurrence of positive apparent phase data is provided by an electric circuit model representing a four-electrode measurement. We also show that the apparent phase polarity will be frequency dependent when resistivity changes significantly with frequency (i.e. in the presence of significant IP effects). Consequently, negative IP effects manifest themselves in the shape of apparent phase spectra recorded with multifrequency (spectral IP) data sets. Our results imply that positive apparent phase measurements should be anticipated and should be retained during inversion and interpretation of single frequency and spectral IP data sets.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2019

Projecting Global Urban Area Growth Through 2100 Based on Historical Time Series Data and Future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Improved understanding of the potential growth of urban areas at the national and global levels is needed for sustainable urban development. Current panel data analysis and local scale modeling are limited in projecting global urban area growth with large spatial heterogeneities. In this study, we developed country-specific urban area growth models using the time series data set of global urban extents (1992–2013) and projected the future growth of urban areas under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results indicate the global urban area would increase roughly 40–67% under five SSPs until 2050 relative to the base year of 2013, and this trend would continue to a growth ratio of more than 200% by 2100. The growth of urban areas under relatively unsustainable development pathways (e.g., regional rivalry SSP3 and inequality SSP4) is smaller compared to other SSPs. Although developing countries would remain as leading contributors to the increase of global urban areas in the future, they may exhibit different temporal patterns, that is, plateaued or monotonically increasing trends. This variation is primarily attributed to the compounding effect of the growth in population and gross domestic product. Our urban area data set presents a first country-level urban area projection under the five SSPs, spanning from 2013 to 2100. This data set has a great potential to support various global change studies, for example, urban sprawl simulation, integrated assessment modeling for sustainable development goals, and investigation of the impact of urbanization on atmospheric emissions, air quality, and human health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗