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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Determining thyroid {sup 131}I effective half-life for the treatment planning of Graves' disease

Purpose: Thyroid {sup 131}I effective half-life (T{sub eff}) is an essential parameter in patient therapy when accurate radiation dose is desirable for producing an intended therapeutic outcome. Multiple {sup 131}I uptake measurements and resources from patients themselves and from nuclear medicine facilities are requisites for determining T{sub eff}, these being limiting factors when implementing the treatment planning of Graves' disease (GD) in radionuclide therapy. With the aim of optimizing this process, this study presents a practical, propitious, and accurate method of determining T{sub eff} for dosimetric purposes. Methods: A total of 50 patients with GD were included in this prospective study. Thyroidal {sup 131}I uptake was measured at 2-h, 6-h, 24-h, 48-h, 96-h, and 220-h postradioiodine administration. T{sub eff} was calculated by considering sets of two measured points (24-48-h, 24-96-h, and 24-220-h), sets of three (24-48-96-h, 24-48-220-h, and 24-96-220-h), and sets of four (24-48-96-220-h). Results: When considering all the measured points, the representative T{sub eff} for all the patients was 6.95 ({+-}0.81) days, whereas when using such sets of points as (24-220-h), (24-96-220-h), and (24-48-220-h), this was 6.85 ({+-}0.81), 6.90 ({+-}0.81), and 6.95 ({+-}0.81) days, respectively. According to the mean deviations 2.2 ({+-}2.4)%, 2.1 ({+-}2.0)%, and 0.04 ({+-}0.09)% found in T{sub eff}, calculated based on all the measured points in time, and with methods using the (24-220-h), (24-48-220-h), and (24-96-220-h) sets, respectively, no meaningful statistical difference was noted among the three methods (p > 0.500, t test). Conclusions: T{sub eff} obtained from only two thyroid {sup 131}I uptakes measured at 24-h and 220-h, besides proving to be sufficient, accurate enough, and easily applicable, attributes additional major cost-benefits for patients, and facilitates the application of the method for dosimetric purposes in the treatment planning of Graves' disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Computerized analysis of coronary artery disease: Performance evaluation of segmentation and tracking of coronary arteries in CT angiograms

Purpose: The authors are developing a computer-aided detection system to assist radiologists in analysis of coronary artery disease in coronary CT angiograms (cCTA). This study evaluated the accuracy of the authors’ coronary artery segmentation and tracking method which are the essential steps to define the search space for the detection of atherosclerotic plaques. Methods: The heart region in cCTA is segmented and the vascular structures are enhanced using the authors’ multiscale coronary artery response (MSCAR) method that performed 3D multiscale filtering and analysis of the eigenvalues of Hessian matrices. Starting from seed points at the origins of the left and right coronary arteries, a 3D rolling balloon region growing (RBG) method that adapts to the local vessel size segmented and tracked each of the coronary arteries and identifies the branches along the tracked vessels. The branches are queued and subsequently tracked until the queue is exhausted. With Institutional Review Board approval, 62 cCTA were collected retrospectively from the authors’ patient files. Three experienced cardiothoracic radiologists manually tracked and marked center points of the coronary arteries as reference standard following the 17-segment model that includes clinically significant coronary arteries. Two radiologists visually examined the computer-segmented vessels and marked the mistakenly tracked veins and noisy structures as false positives (FPs). For the 62 cases, the radiologists marked a total of 10191 center points on 865 visible coronary artery segments. Results: The computer-segmented vessels overlapped with 83.6% (8520/10191) of the center points. Relative to the 865 radiologist-marked segments, the sensitivity reached 91.9% (795/865) if a true positive is defined as a computer-segmented vessel that overlapped with at least 10% of the reference center points marked on the segment. When the overlap threshold is increased to 50% and 100%, the sensitivities were 86.2% and 53.4%, respectively. For the 62 test cases, a total of 55 FPs were identified by radiologist in 23 of the cases. Conclusions: The authors’ MSCAR-RBG method achieved high sensitivity for coronary artery segmentation and tracking. Studies are underway to further improve the accuracy for the arterial segments affected by motion artifacts, severe calcified and noncalcified soft plaques, and to reduce the false tracking of the veins and other noisy structures. Methods are also being developed to detect coronary artery disease along the tracked vessels.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) Virus 3C Protease Mutant L127P: Implications for FMD Vaccine Development

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) afflicts livestock in more than 80 countries, limiting food production and global trade. Production of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccines requires cytosolic expression of the FMDV 3C protease to cleave the P1 polyprotein into mature capsid proteins, but the FMDV 3C protease is toxic to host cells. To identify less-toxic isoforms of the FMDV 3C protease, we screened 3C mutants for increased transgene output in comparison to wild-type 3C using a Gaussia luciferase reporter system. The novel point mutation 3C(L127P) increased yields of recombinant FMDV subunit proteins in mammalian and bacterial cells expressing P1-3C transgenes and retained the ability to process P1 polyproteins from multiple FMDV serotypes. The 3C(L127P) mutant produced crystalline arrays of FMDV-like particles in mammalian and bacterial cells, potentially providing a practical method of rapid, inexpensive FMD vaccine production in bacteria.

translational interrupter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous and Staggered Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Coinfection of Cattle

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) field studies have suggested the occurrence of simultaneous infection of individual hosts by multiple virus strains; however, the pathogenesis of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) coinfections is largely unknown. In the current study, cattle were experimentally exposed to two FMDV strains of different serotypes (O and A). One cohort was simultaneously infected with both viruses, while additional cohorts were initially infected with FMDV A and subsequently superinfected with FMDV O after 21 or 35 days. Coinfections were confirmed during acute infection, with both viruses concurrently detected in blood, lesions, and secretions. Staggered exposures resulted in overlapping infections as convalescent animals with persistent subclinical FMDV infection were superinfected with a heterologous virus. Staggering virus exposure by 21 days conferred clinical protection in six of eight cattle, which were subclinically infected following the heterologous virus exposure. This effect was transient, as all animals superinfected at 35 days post-initial infection developed fulminant FMD. The majority of cattle maintained persistent infection with one of the two viruses while clearing the other. Analysis of viral genomes confirmed interserotypic recombination events within 10 days in the upper respiratory tract of five superinfected animals from which the dominant genomes contained the capsid coding regions of the O virus and nonstructural coding regions of the A virus. In contrast, there were no dominant recombinant genomes detected in samples from simultaneously coinfected cattle. These findings inculpate persistently infected carriers as potential FMDV mixing vessels in which novel strains may rapidly emerge through superinfection and recombination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

First PET Imaging Studies With 63 Zn-Zinc Citrate in Healthy Human Participants and Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Abnormalities in zinc homeostasis are indicated in many human diseases, including Alzheimer disease (AD). 63 Zn-zinc citrate was developed as a positron emission tomography (PET) imaging probe of zinc transport and used in a first-in-human study in 6 healthy elderly individuals and 6 patients with clinically confirmed AD. A dynamic PET imaging of the brain was performed for 30 minutes following intravenous administration of 63 Zn-zinc citrate (~330 MBq). Subsequently, body PET images were acquired. Urine and venous blood were analyzed to give information on urinary excretion and pharmacokinetics. Regional cerebral 63 Zn clearances were compared with 11 C-Pittsburgh Compound B ( 11 C-PiB) and 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 F-FDG) imaging data. 63 Zn-zinc citrate was well tolerated in human participants with no adverse events monitored. Tissues of highest uptake were liver, pancreas, and kidney, with moderate uptake being seen in intestines, prostate (in males), thyroid, spleen, stomach, pituitary, and salivary glands. Moderate brain uptake was observed, and regional dependencies were observed in 63 Zn clearance kinetics in relationship with regions of high amyloid-β plaque burden ( 11 C-PiB) and 18 F-FDG hypometabolism. In conclusion, zinc transport was successfully imaged in human participants using the PET probe 63 Zn-zinc citrate. Primary sites of uptake in the digestive system accent the role of zinc in gastrointestinal function. Preliminary information on zinc kinetics in patients with AD evidenced regional differences in clearance rates in correspondence with regional amyloid-β pathology, warranting further imaging studies of zinc homeostasis in patients with AD.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of kidney function on Alzheimer’s disease blood biomarkers: implications for predicting amyloid-β positivity

Impaired kidney function has a potential confounding effect on blood biomarker levels, including biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Given the imminent use of certain blood biomarkers in the routine diagnostic work-up of patients with suspected AD, knowledge on the potential impact of comorbidities on the utility of blood biomarkers is important. We aimed to evaluate the association between kidney function, assessed through estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated from plasma creatinine and AD blood biomarkers, as well as their influence over predicting Aβ-positivity. We included 242 participants from the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) cohort, comprising cognitively unimpaired individuals (CU; n = 124), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 58), AD dementia (n = 34), and non-AD dementia (n = 26) patients all characterized by [ 18 F] AZD-4694. Plasma samples were analyzed for Aβ42, Aβ40, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181), 217 (p-tau217), 231 (p-tau231) and N-terminal containing tau fragments (NTA-tau) using Simoa technology. Kidney function was assessed by eGFR in mL/min/1.73 m 2 , based on plasma creatinine levels, age, and sex. Participants were also stratified according to their eGFR-indexed stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We evaluated the association between eGFR and blood biomarker levels with linear models and assessed whether eGFR provided added predictive value to determine Aβ-positivity with logistic regression models. Biomarker concentrations were highest in individuals with CKD stage 3, followed by stages 2 and 1, but differences were only significant for NfL, Aβ42, and Aβ40 (not Aβ42/Aβ40). All investigated biomarkers showed significant associations with eGFR except plasma NTA-tau, with stronger relationships observed for Aβ40 and NfL. However, after adjusting for either age, sex or Aβ-PET SUVr, the association with eGFR was no longer significant for all biomarkers except Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. When evaluating whether accounting for kidney function could lead to improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, we observed no improvements in model fit (Akaike Information Criterion, AIC) or in discriminative performance (AUC) by adding eGFR to a base model including each plasma biomarker, age, and sex. While covariates like age and sex improved model fit, eGFR contributed minimally, and there were no significant differences in clinical discrimination based on AUC values. We found that kidney function seems to be associated with AD blood biomarker concentrations. However, these associations did not remain significant after adjusting for age and sex, except for Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. While covariates such as age and sex improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, including eGFR in the models did not lead to improved prediction for any biomarker. Our findings indicate that renal function, within the normal to mild impairment range, does not seem to have a clinically relevant impact when using highly accurate blood biomarkers, such as p-tau217, in a biomarker-supported diagnosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Poleward Expansion of the White-Footed Mouse ( Peromyscus leucopus ) under Climate Change: Implications for the Spread of Lyme Disease

The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Oronasal Transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease Agent from White-Tailed Deer to Suffolk Sheep

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease of cervids. We examined host range of CWD by oronasally inoculating Suffolk sheep with brain homogenate from a CWD-positive white-tailed deer. Sixty months after inoculation, 1/7 sheep had immunoreactivity against the misfolded form of prion protein in lymphoid tissue. Results were confirmed by mouse bioassay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increased Attack Rates and Decreased Incubation Periods in Raccoons with Chronic Wasting Disease Passaged through Meadow Voles

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a naturally-occurring neurodegenerative disease of cervids. Raccoons (Procyon lotor) and meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) have previously been shown to be susceptible to the CWD agent. To investigate the potential for transmission of the agent of CWD from white-tailed deer to voles and subsequently to raccoons, we intracranially inoculated raccoons with brain homogenate from a CWD-affected white-tailed deer (CWD Wtd ) or derivatives of this isolate after it had been passaged through voles 1 or 5 times. We found that passage of the CWDWtd isolate through voles led to a change in the biologic behavior of the CWD agent, including increased attack rates and decreased incubation periods in raccoons. A better understanding of the dynamics of cross-species transmission of CWD prions can provide insights into how these infectious proteins evolve in new hosts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nature and Consequences of Biological Reductionism for the Immunological Study of Infectious Diseases

Evolution has conserved “economic” systems that perform many functions, faster or better, with less. For example, three to five leukocyte types protect from thousands of pathogens. In order to achieve so much with so little, biological systems combine their limited elements, creating complex structures. Yet, the prevalent research paradigm is reductionist. Focusing on infectious diseases, reductionist and non-reductionist views are here described. Furthermore, the literature indicates that reductionism is associated with information loss and errors, while non-reductionist operations can extract more information from the same data. When designed to capture one-to-many/many-to-one interactions—including the use of arrows that connect pairs of consecutive observations—non-reductionist (spatial–temporal) constructs eliminate data variability from all dimensions, except along one line, while arrows describe the directionality of temporal changes that occur along the line. To validate the patterns detected by non-reductionist operations, reductionist procedures are needed. Integrated (non-reductionist and reductionist) methods can (i) distinguish data subsets that differ immunologically and statistically; (ii) differentiate false-negative from -positive errors; (iii) discriminate disease stages; (iv) capture in vivo, multilevel interactions that consider the patient, the microbe, and antibiotic-mediated responses; and (v) assess dynamics. Integrated methods provide repeatable and biologically interpretable information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Toward Personalized Network Biomarkers in Alzheimer's Disease: Computing Individualized Genomic and Protein Crosstalk Maps

We call for the AD field to move beyond discrete biomarkers and utilize the full power of informatics and big data approaches to build and test personalized markers at a pathway and network level. While we have chosen AD as an example, the issues we propose are also highly relevant to other neurodegenerative disorders, such as vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies, where even less is known about how various biomarkers interact. Indeed, the availability of rich biomarker data across a range of neurodegenerative disorders would enable more accurate pathology-based classification of such conditions (as opposed to the current predominantly clinical classifications). We further hypothesize that building dynamic network biomarkers and pathway crosstalk reference maps using the combined power of several protein/gene-level knowledge priors could accelerate discovery of disease-specific mechanisms and novel drug targets by enrichment with patient specific genetic information. Application of this methodology to large public AD datasets is needed to test our hypotheses and refine the methods. Subsequent replication in independent datasets and population studies as well as functional validation of mechanisms in laboratory models will be the next steps. Ultimately, it is our hope that such novel methods may yield further insights into both disease mechanisms as well as novel targets for biomarker development and drug discovery.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Time to Amyloid Positivity and Preclinical Changes in Brain Metabolism, Atrophy, and Cognition: Evidence for Emerging Amyloid Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease

Background: Aβ pathology is associated with longitudinal changes of brain metabolism, atrophy, and cognition, in cognitively healthy elders. However, Aβ information is usually measured cross-sectionally and dichotomized to classify subjects as Aβ-positive or Aβ-negative, making it difficult to evaluate when brain and cognitive changes occur with respect to emerging Aβ pathology. In this study, we use longitudinal Aβ information to combine the level and rate of change of Aβ to estimate the time to Aβ-positivity for each subject and test this temporal proximity to significant Aβ pathology for associations with brain structure, metabolism, and cognition. Methods: In 89 cognitively healthy elders with up to 10 years of follow-up, we estimated the points at which rates of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, MRI, and cognitive and functional decline begin to accelerate with respect to the time to Aβ-positivity. Points of initial acceleration in rates of decline were estimated using mixed-effects models with penalized regression splines. Results: Acceleration of rates of FDG PET were observed to occur 20+ years before the conventional threshold for Aβ-positivity. Subtle signs of cognitive dysfunction were observed 10+ years before Aβ-positivity. Conclusions: Aβ may have subtle associations with other hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease before Aβ biomarkers reach conventional thresholds for Aβ-positivity. Therefore, we propose that emerging Aβ pathology occurs many years before cognitively healthy elders reach the current threshold for Aβ positivity (preclinical AD). To allow prevention in the earliest disease stages, AD clinical trials may be designed to also include subjects with Aβ biomarkers in the sub-threshold range.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative Research and Infectious Disease Surveillance: A 2021 Epilogue

As the world looks forward to turning a corner in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes increasingly evident that international research cooperation and dialogue is necessary to end this global catastrophe. Last year, we initiated a research topic: “Infectious Disease Surveillance: Cooperative Research in Response to Recent Outbreaks, Including COVID-19,” which aimed at featuring manuscripts focused on the essential link between surveillance and cooperative research for emerging and endemic diseases, and highlighting scientific partnerships in countries under-represented in the scientific literature. Here we recognize the body of work published from our manuscript call that resulted in over 50 published papers. This current analysis describes articles and authors from a variety of funded and unfunded international sources. The work exemplifies successful research and publications which are frequently cooperative, and may serve as a basis to model further global scientific engagements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Lack of Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus From Persistently Infected Cattle to Naïve Cattle Under Field Conditions in Vietnam

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), caused by FMD virus (FMDV; Aphthovirus, Picornaviridae), is a highly contagious and economically important disease of clovenhoofed domestic livestock and wildlife species worldwide. Subsequent to the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of FMDV-infected ruminants become persistently infected carriers, defined by detection of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples 28 days or more post-infection. The goal of this prospective study was to characterize the FMD carrier state in cattle subsequent to natural infection under typical husbandry practices in Vietnam. Ten persistently infected cattle on eight farms in the Long An province in southern Vietnam were monitored by monthly screening of serum and oropharyngeal fluid samples for 12 months. To assess transmission from FMDV carriers, 16 naïve cattle were intentionally brought into direct contact with the persistently infected animals for 6 months, and were monitored by clinical and laboratory methods. The restricted mean duration of the FMD carrier state was 27.7 months, and the rate of decrease of the proportion of carrier animals was 0.03 per month. There was no evidence of transmission to naïve animals throughout the study period. Additionally, there was no detection of FMDV infection or seroconversion in three calves born to carrier animals during the study. The force of infection for carrier-to-contact transmission was 0 per month, with upper 95% confidence limit of 0.064 per month. Phylogenetic analysis of viral protein 1 (VP1) coding sequences obtained from carriers indicated that all viruses recovered in this study belonged to the O/ME-SA/PanAsia lineage, and grouped phylogenetically with temporally and geographically related viruses. Analysis of within-host evolution of FMDV, based upon full-length open reading frame sequences recovered from consecutive samples from one animal, indicated that most of the nonsynonymous changes occurred in Lpro, VP2, and VP3 protein coding regions. This study suggests that the duration of FMDV persistent infection in cattle may be longer than previously recognized, but the risk of transmission is low. Additional novel insights are provided into within-host viral evolution under natural conditions in an endemic setting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions

Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗