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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical understanding of stability of the oxygen electrode in a proton-conductor based solid oxide electrolysis cell

The oxygen electrode in a proton-conductor based solid oxide cells is often a triple-conducting material that enables the transport and exchange of electrons (e - ), oxygen ions (O 2- ), and protons (H + ), thus expanding active areas to enhance the oxygen electrode activity. In this work, a theoretical model was developed to understand stability of tri-conducting oxygen electrode by studying chemical potentials of neutral species (i.e., μ o 2 , μ H 2 , and μ H 2 O ) as functions of transport properties, operating parameters, and cell geometry. Our theoretical understanding shows that (1): In a conventional oxygen-ion based solid oxide cell, a high μ o 2 (thus high oxygen partial pressure) exists in the oxygen electrode during the electrolysis mode, which may lead to the formation of cracks at the electrode/electrolyte interface. Further, while in a proton-conductor based solid oxide cell, the μ o 2 is reduced significantly, suppressing the crack formation, and resulting in improved performance stability (2). In a typical proton-conductor based solid oxide electrolyzer, the dependence of μ o 2 on the Faradaic efficiency is negligible. Hence, approaches to block the electronic current can improve the electrolysis efficiency while achieving stability (3). The difference of the μ o 2 (thus p o 2 ) between the oxygen electrode and gas phase can be reduced by using higher ionic conducting components and improving electrode kinetics, which lead to further improvement of electrode stability.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital light processing of porous LLZTO scaffolds for Li-garnet solid-state batteries

Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO)-based solid-state electrolytes (SEs) are promising materials for next-generation solid-state batteries. In this work, digital light processing (DLP), an emerging additive manufacturing technology, is employed to produce porous Ta-doped LLZO (LLZTO) scaffolds. The self-standing scaffolds are 100 μm thick and have 40% porosity. The scaffolds demonstrate symmetric cell cycling stability exceeding 1,500 h at 0.1 mA/cm2 current density, with a capacity of 0.1 mAh/cm 2 (1 h for each half cycle). At higher current densities, reversible soft shorts frequently happen, while immediate hard shorts are prevented due to Li dendrite growth being hindered by the tortuous pore network. In addition to the cycling stability, the phase stability of LLZTO is investigated during the post-printing thermal process for printing resin removal. We discovered that the LLZTO partially decomposes into Li 2 Zr 2 O 7 and other impurity phases from 400°C to 800°C, but the pure LLZTO phase is restored upon the completion of resin removal beyond 800°C.

Li-metal anode↗
NASA NTRS1981

Shuttle infrared telescope facility pointing and control system

The Shuttle Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) is being designed as a 0.85 m cryogenically cooled telescope capable of a three order of magnitude improvement over currently available infrared instruments. The SIRTF requires that the image at the focal plane be stabilized to better than 0.25 arcsec with an absolute accuracy of 1.0 arcsec. Current pointing-mount performance simulations indicate that neither of these requirements can be met without additional stabilization. The SIRTF pointing and control system will utilize gyro outputs, star field position measurements from a focal plane fine guidance sensor, and a steerable secondary mirror to provide the necessary stabilization and pointing control. The charge coupled device fine guidance sensor tracks multiple stars simultaneously and, through the use of multistar processing algorithms in a high performance microcomputer, generates three-axis attitude errors and gyro-drift estimates to correct the pointing-mount gyros. A high-bandwidth feedforward loop, driven directly from the pointing-mount gyro package, controls the steering mirror in order to correct disturbances not compensated for by the pointing-mount control system. A prototype design for the SIRTF pointing and control system is described in detail. Performance analyses made using a digital simulation of the pointing and control system as well as experimental data obtained in laboratory and field test measurements are presented.

Lorell, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Physics of systematic frequency variations in hydrogen masers

The frequency stability of hydrogen masers for intervals longer that 10(exp 4) seconds is limited at present by systematic processes. Researchers discuss the physics of frequency-determining mechanisms internal to the maser that are susceptible to systematic variations, and the connections between these internal mechanisms and external environmental factors. Based upon estimates of the magnitudes of systematic effects, they find that the primary internal mechanisms currently limiting long-term maser frequency stability are cavity pulling, at the level parts in 10(exp 15) per day, and wall shift variations, at the level of parts in 10(exp 16) to parts in 10(exp 15) per day. They discuss strategies for reducing systematic frequency variations.

Mattison, Edward M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energetic particle marginal stability profile for HL-2M integrated simulation based on neural network module

Abstract A critical gradient model is employed to develop a module of energetic particle (EP) marginal stability profiles in OMFIT integrated simulations for studying EP transport. Currently, each iteration of transport evolution is approximately 10 min in the integrated simulation, whereas, the EP marginal stability profile, which serves as an input in the integrated simulation could take much longer; the reason being a combination of the TGLFEP and EPtran codes is employed in our previous investigation. To reduce the simulation time, the critical gradient is predicted by a neural network instead of the TGLFEP code, and the EPtran code is revised with parallel computing, so that the running time of this module can be controlled to within 5 min. The predictions are in good agreement with previous approaches. The integrated simulation of HL-2M with Alfven eigenmodes transported by neutral beam EP profiles indicates that EP transport reduces the total pressure and current as expected, but could also under some conditions raise the safety factor in the core, which is favorable for reversed magnetic shear and high-performance plasmas.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Perovskite Solar Module: Promise and Challenges in Efficiency, Meta‐Stability, and Operational Lifetime

Abstract Perovskite photovoltaics (PVs) are an emerging solar energy generation technology that is nearing commercialization. Despite the unprecedented progress in increasing power conversion efficiency (PCE) for perovskite solar cells (PSCs), up‐scaling lab‐made cells to solar modules remains a challenge. In this work, the recent progress of making perovskite mini‐modules is reviewed. In particular, a database summarizing the module size, performance, hysteresis, and operational lifetimes reported in the literature is built. After analyzing the performance losses from scaling PSCs to mini‐modules based on the data collected from the literature, the current key to high‐performance perovskite mini‐modules is found to be the coating method optimization. If the perovskite layer quality is well reserved, a >24% mini‐module efficiency is projected by only considering the losses from lateral resistivity and laser scribing area. Next, performance characteristics are explored including hysteresis and meta‐stable power outputs that must be overcome to correctly characterize perovskite modules. Finally, current challenges associated with the long‐term stability of perovskite modules are examined and the importance of such durability for commercialization is discussed. It is hoped that the findings in this review provide a bridge for the development of perovskite modules that will lead to commercialization in the near future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the numerical stability of physics models to equilibrium variation through database comparisons on DIII-D

High fidelity kinetic equilibria are crucial for tokamak modeling and analysis. Manual workflows for constructing kinetic equilibria are time consuming and subject to user error, motivating development of automated equilibrium reconstruction tools to provide accurate and consistent reconstructions for downstream physics analysis. These automated tools also provide access to kinetic equilibria at large database scales, which enables the quantification of general uncertainties arising from equilibrium reconstruction techniques. In this paper, we compare a large database of DIII-D kinetic equilibria generated manually by physics experts to equilibria from automated kinetic reconstruction tools, assessing the impact of reconstruction method on equilibrium parameters and resulting magnetohydrodynamic stability calculations. We find agreement among scalar parameters, whereas profile quantities, such as the bootstrap current, show larger disagreements. We analyze ideal kink and classical tearing stability with DCON and STRIDE respectively, finding that the kink stability calculation is generally more robust than the tearing index Δ' calculation. We find that in 90% of cases, both kink stability classifications are unchanged between the manual expert and automated kinetic equilibria.

CAKE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Technology Maturation of the Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics

The supersonic and transonic dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles currently poses large risks in all of NASA’s ongoing entry missions (MSR SRL, MSR EES, and Dragonfly). These projects have allocated millions of dollars to testing and modeling efforts to buy down risk by using the current state-of-the-art (SoA) facilities at NASA’s disposal. While these facilities have heritage in supplying dynamics data to reentry missions, their availability is severely limited – particularly with the high number of concur-rent projects requesting simultaneous testing– and are costly when considering the science density per dollar. None of the current SoA facility methodologies allow the test model to have the dynamics fully develop through a flight relevant free-stream profile and as such require extrapolations with resultant high uncertainties in order to relate the test dynamics to flight expectations. SPEED is a NASA Ames Center Innovation Fund (CIF) project that is developing a highly tailorable and cost-effective test methodology to better assess the dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles via a stratospheric balloon flight. This is accomplished by dropping a suite of instrumented capsules from a stratospheric balloon to gain a statistically relevant dataset of scaled reentry vehicles in mission relevant free-flight conditions. This presentation will walk through how the test methodology is being implemented specifically for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) geometry in an awarded Flight Opportunities Program (FOP) test flight in early CY24. SPEED Application to MSR: SPEED consists of three main mechanical systems: the Drop Platform, the Projectile, and the test Capsule. SPEED is being developed as a set of guidelines and recommendations for how to test with the proposed Concept of Operations (Conops) since the specific design parameters will vary depending on the specific project’s reference trajectory and entry vehicle design. As such, this presentation will walk through the development time-line as shown in Fig. 2. This is meant to serve as a blueprint for further missions as desired. Mechanical and Avionics Design. The SPEED test platform designed for the MSR-EES capsule geometry with nominal entry parameters has the ability to carry 10 Capsules to altitude instrumented with: 1. 3-Axis Accelerometer 2. IMU 3. Gyroscope 4. Magnetometer 5. Pressure Transducer cruciform 6. Uplook and Horizon Cameras To package the avionics/instrumentation suite, the capsule is approximately 1’ in diameter with the Outer Mold Line (OML) centroid-scaled from the full EES design. The internal volume is gutted and custom-shaped to fit the desired instrumentation suite, as well as to allow for the positioning of ballast mass such that the Center of Gravity is analogous to the flight vehicle. All structural components in the Capsule and Projectile are 3D printed, which significantly reduces the cost of each flight unit to around $1500 including all instrumentation, avionics, and structural components. Flight Conops. The test Capsule is accelerated to the desired altitude and Mach number while stowed in the Projectile, a missile-like vehicle consisting of steel ballast in the nose, a low-drag OML, and an Ejection Mechanism to reliably release the Capsule into the free-flow supersonic conditions. For the MSR-EES design, the capsule employs ~3kg of ballast mass at the nose to accelerate the 1.25kg test Capsule to ~Mach 1.7 at 23km altitude. This requires an initial release altitude of 40km, the quoted limit of a 80kg payload by the FOP-contracted balloon provider. Once the Ejection Mechanism avionics detect the proper conditions, the spring-loaded Ejection Mechanism will release and – guided by the sabot – expose the test Capsule to the desired test conditions for ~5 seconds of free-flight in the supersonic/transonic regimes. Dynamics in the subsonic regime will also be captured with the instrumentation suite with post-flight recovery operations aimed at recovering the high-G-load capable SD cards after the planned hard impact landings. Testing and Development: In the few months the SPEED project has worked the development of MSR-EES flight test, the team has performed lab and drone based testing which this presentation will overview. After the first design phase, the team fabricated Engineering Demonstration Units (EDUs) of all subsystems to perform validation testing shown in Fig. 5. After validation was completed on the subsystem level, a drone-drop test was performed at the recreational flight ceiling of 400ft altitude to assess the SPEED systems in a flight environment. Parameters such as in-flight stability, hard impact landing performance, and avionics performance were quantified and qualified. The FY23 CIF will culminate in a helicopter drop test aboard an Air National Guard Blackhawk. This will prepare the team for the CY24 FOP stratospheric balloon flight that should provide the final verification to begin offering the test platform for mission support. Focus of Presentation: This presentation will outline the technology maturation path of the SPEED implementation to the MSR-EES capsule baseline as well as the details regarding the mechanical system, avionics and instrumentation, and flight operations. Note that a complementary presentation is being submitted for a methodology overview of the SPEED test platform, introducing the testing technique and benefits as well as the full application space of the technology.

pitch damping coefficient↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ternary Phosphides Ba M 2 P 2 : Tailoring Crystal and Electronic Structures Enables Highly Efficient HER Electrocatalysis

Binary transition metal phosphides and their solid solutions have emerged as promising hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) catalysts. Although many research endeavors have adopted strategies to vary compositions to optimize catalytic performance, they mainly focus on binary structures, which represent only a small fraction of the abundant phase space of structure types among transition metal phosphides. Here, the largely unexplored class of ternary and multinary ordered phosphides in catalysis comprises two or more metals with quite different chemical nature, concealing the structure–property relationships essential for advancing catalyst design. Here, we explored phosphides crystallizing in one of the most abundant ordered intermetallic structure types, —the ThCr 2 Si 2 type, —where square nets of 3d transition metal M and P atoms are separated by layers of electropositive Ba cations. Four ternary BaM 2 P 2 (M = Fe, Fe/Cu, Fe/Ni, Ni) catalysts were synthesized and characterized. BaNi 2 P 2 showed high HER activity in acidic electrolyte, which required an overpotential, η 10 , of only 62 mV to drive current density j = –10 mA/cm 2 and high stability with a potential drop rate of 0.25 mV/h. BaNi 2 P 2 outperformed other Ni-based catalysts, such as Ni 2 P and Ni 5 P 4 . Notably, at current densities above –170 mA/cm 2 , BaNi 2 P 2 outperformed the standard Pt electrode measured under identical conditions. Electronic structure analysis revealed a volcano-type activity trend among the four BaM 2 P 2 catalysts based on their d-band center positions, highlighting the role of electropositive Ba cations in shifting the Ni-3d orbitals into an optimal position.

BaNi2P2↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of a Single-Ion Conducting Polymer Electrolyte for Sodium-Ion Batteries

Here, a sodium bis(fluoroallyl)malonato borate salt (NaBFMB) is synthesized. Using a Click thiol-ene reaction, NaBFMB can be photo-crosslinked with a tri-thiol (trimethylolpropane tris(3-mercapto propionate), TMPT) to create a single-ion conducting electrolyte (NaSIE), with all negative charges residing on the borate moieties and anions immobilized through the 3-D crosslinked network. The NaSIE can be prepared either as a free-standing film or through a drop-cast method followed by a photo crosslinking method for an in-situ formation on top of the electrodes. The free-standing film of NaSIE has a high ionic conductivity of 2 × 10 –3 S cm –1 at 30 °C, and a high transference number (t Na + ) of 0.91 as measured through the Bruce-Vincent method. The electrochemical stability of NaSIE polymer electrolyte is demonstrated via cyclic voltammetry (CV) to be stable up to 5 V vs Na/Na + . When tested inside a symmetrical Na//Na cell, the NaSIE shows a critical current density (CCD) of 0.4 mA cm –2 . The stability of NaSIE is further demonstrated via a long cycling of the stripping/plating test with a current density of 0.1 mA cm –2 at five-minute intervals for over 10,000 min. Using the in-situ method, NaSIE is used as the electrolyte for a sodium metal battery using P2 (Na resides at prismatic sites with with ABBAAB stacking)-cathode of Na 0.67 Ni 0.33 Mn 0.67 O 2 (NNMO) and is cycled between the cut-off voltages of 2.0–4.0 V. A high initial specific capacity (85.7 mAh g –1 ) with a capacity retention of 86.79% after 150 cycles is obtained.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio simulations on the pure Cr lattice stability at 0K: Verification with the Fe-Cr and Ni-Cr binary systems

Significant discrepancies have been observed and discussed on the lattice stability of Cr between the predictions from the ab initio calculations and the CALPHAD approach. In the current work, we carefully examined the possible structures for pure Cr and reviewed the history back from how Kaufman originally determined the Gibbs energy of FCC-Cr in the 1970s. The reliability of Cr lattice stability derived by the CALPHAD and ab initio approaches was systematically discussed. It is concluded that the Cr lattice stability based on the CALPHAD approach has large uncertainty. Meanwhile, we cannot claim that the ab initio H FCC-Cr is error-free as FCC-Cr is an unstable phase under ambient conditions. The present work shows that the ab initio HFCC-Cr can be a viable scientific approach. As both approaches have their limitations, the present work propose to integrate the ab initio results into the CALPHAD platform for the development of the next generation CALPHAD database. As a result, the Fe-Cr and Ni-Cr binary systems were chosen as two case studies demonstrating the capability to adopt the ab initio Cr lattice stability directly into the current CALPHAD database framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical Prediction and Experimental Verification of IrO x Supported on Titanium Nitride for Acidic Oxygen Evolution Reaction

Reducing iridium (Ir) catalyst loading for acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is a critical strategy for large-scale hydrogen production via proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis. However, simultaneously achieving high activity, long-term stability, and reduced material cost remains challenging. To address this challenge, we develop a frame-work by combining density functional theory (DFT) prediction using model surfaces and proof-of-concept experimental ver-ification using thin films and nanoparticles. DFT results predict that oxidized Ir monolayers over titanium nitride (IrO x /TiN) should display higher OER activity than IrO x while reducing Ir loading. Further, this prediction is verified by depositing Ir monolayers over TiN thin films via physical vapor deposition. The promising thin film results are then extended to commercially viable powder IrO x /TiN catalysts, which demonstrate a lower overpotential and higher mass activity than commercial IrO 2 , and a long-term stability of 250 hours to maintain a current density of 10 mA cm -2 . The superior OER performance of IrO x /TiN is further confirmed using proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE), which shows a lower cell voltage than commercial IrO 2 to achieve a current density of 1 A cm -2 . Both DFT and in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy reveal that the high OER performance of IrO x /TiN strongly depends on the IrO x - TiN interaction via direct Ir-Ti bonding. This study highlights the importance of close interaction between theoretical prediction based on mechanistic understanding and experimental verification based on thin film model catalysts to facilitate the development of more practical powder IrO x /TiN catalysts with high activity and stability for acidic OER.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1998

Thermal Stability of the AVIRIS On-Board Calibrator

The AVIRIS On-Board Calibrator (OBC) provides essential data for refining the calibration of each AVIRIS data run. Annual improvement to the AVIRIS sensor and laboratory calibration accuracy has resulted in increasingly high demands on the stability of the OBC. Since the 1995 flight season, the OBC could track the stability of the spectrometer alignment to the 2% level, a significant improvement over previous years. The major contributor to this 2% stability was the conversion from a constant-current bulb power supply to an intensity-based active feedback power supply. Given the high sensor signal-to-noise ratio, improving the OBC to track 1% or 0.5% changes was highly desirable. Achieving stability better than 2% required an examination of the mechanisms affecting stability.

Faust, Jessica↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial-intelligence-based prediction and control of combustion instabilities in spark-ignition engines

In recent years, as engine control strategies have grown increasingly sophisticated in a continued drive for increasing efficiency and reducing emissions, engine operation has been pushed into regimes that are limited by combustion instabilities. These instabilities produce undesirable abnormal combustion events, which pose barriers to further improvement in engine efficiency. Many of the phenomena involved are difficult to model or control using traditional, purely physics-based models and reactive control approaches. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques offer some promise for achieving more effective combustion stability control, especially when appropriately applied within a physics-informed framework. This chapter illustrates the current state-of-the-art in applying AI to combustion stability control and examines three case studies with application to the dilute stability limit in spark-ignition engines to illustrate the utility and limitations of AI in these applications.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS1952

Wind-tunnel Investigation of the Contribution of a Vertical Tail to the Directional Stability of a Fighter-type Airplane

Contributions of vertical tail and fuselage to directional stability are determined from pressure distributions measured over wide ranges of angle of attack and angle of yaw with stabilizer in each of three vertical positions, with stabilizer removed and with both stabilizer and vertical tail removed. Results point out inadequacies of current design methods and show that more accurate methods must treat separately contributions of vertical tail, fuselage area above stabilizer, and fuselage area below stabilizer.

LOADS, STEADY - TAIL↗
NASA NTRS2011

Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR

A room temperature sapphire acoustics resonator incorporated into an oscillator represents a possible opportunity to improve on quartz ultrastable oscillator (USO) performance, which has been a staple for NASA missions since the inception of spaceflight. Where quartz technology is very mature and shows a performance improvement of perhaps 1 dB/decade, these sapphire acoustic resonators when integrated with matured quartz electronics could achieve a frequency stability improvement of 10 dB or more. As quartz oscillators are an essential element of nearly all types of frequency standards and reference systems, the success of MSAR would advance the development of frequency standards and systems for both groundbased and flight-based projects. Current quartz oscillator technology is limited by quartz mechanical Q. With a possible improvement of more than x 10 Q with sapphire acoustic modes, the stability limit of current quartz oscillators may be improved tenfold, to 10(exp -14) at 1 second. The electromagnetic modes of sapphire that were previously developed at JPL require cryogenic temperatures to achieve the high Q levels needed to achieve this stability level. However sapphire fs acoustic modes, which have not been used before in a high-stability oscillator, indicate the required Q values (as high as Q = 10(exp 8)) may be achieved at room temperature in the kHz range. Even though sapphire is not piezoelectric, such a high Q should allow electrostatic excitation of the acoustic modes with a combination of DC and AC voltages across a small sapphire disk (approximately equal to l mm thick). The first evaluations under this task will test predictions of an estimated input impedance of 10 kilohms at Q = 10(exp 8), and explore the Q values that can be realized in a smaller resonator, which has not been previously tested for acoustic modes. This initial Q measurement and excitation demonstration can be viewed similar to a transducer converting electrical energy to mechanical energy and back. Such an electrostatic tweeter type excitation of a mechanical resonator will be tested at 5 MHz. Finite element calculation will be applied to resonator design for the desired resonator frequency and optimum configuration. The experiment consists of the sapphire resonator sandwiched between parallel electrodes. A DC+AC voltage can be applied to generate a force to act on a sapphire resonator. With the frequency of the AC voltage tuned to the sapphire resonator frequency, a resonant condition occurs and the sapphire Q can be measured with a high-frequency impedance analyzer. To achieve high Q values, many experimental factors such as vacuum seal, gas damping effects, charge buildup on the sapphire surface, heat dissipation, sapphire anchoring, and the sapphire mounting configuration will need attention. The effects of these parameters will be calculated and folded into the resonator design. It is envisioned that the initial test configuration would allow for movable electrodes to check gap spacing dependency and verify the input impedance prediction. Quartz oscillators are key components in nearly all ground- and space-based communication, tracking, and radio science applications. They play a key role as local oscillators for atomic frequency standards and serve as flywheel oscillators or to improve phase noise in high performance frequency and timing distribution systems. With ultra-stable performance from one to three seconds, an Earth-orbit or moon-based MSAR can enhance available performance options for spacecraft due to elimination of atmospheric path degradation.

Wang, Rabi T.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Ambiguous Stability of Glaciers at Bed Peaks

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.

ice dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗