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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Four Years of Type Ia Supernovae Observed by TESS: Early-time Light-curve Shapes and Constraints on Companion Interaction Models

Abstract We present 307 type Ia supernova (SN) light curves from the first 4 yr of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission. We use this sample to characterize the shapes of the early-time light curves, measure the rise times from first light to peak, and search for companion star interactions. Using simulations, we show that light curves must have noise <10% of the peak flux to avoid biases in the early-time light-curve shape, restricting our quantitative analysis to 74 light curves. We find that the mean power-law index t β 1 of the early-time light curves isβ 1 = 1.93 ± 0.57, and the mean rise time to peak is 15.7 ± 3.5 days. The underlying population distribution forβ 1 may instead consist of a Gaussian component with mean 2.29, width 0.34, and a long tail extending to values less than 1.0. We find that the data can rarely distinguish between models with and without companion interaction models. Nevertheless, we find three high-quality light curves that tentatively prefer the addition of a companion interaction model, but the statistical evidence for the companion interactions is not robust. We also find two SNe that disfavor the addition of a companion interaction model to a curved power-law model. Taking the 74 SNe together, we calculate 3σupper limits on the presence of companion signatures to control for orientation effects that can hide companions in individual light curves. Our results rule out common progenitor systems with companions having Roche lobe radii >31R ⊙ (separations >5.7 × 10 12 cm, 99.9% confidence level) and disfavor companions having Roche lobe radii >10R ⊙ (separations >1.9 × 10 12 cm, 95% confidence level). Lastly, we discuss the implications of our results for the intrinsic fraction of single degenerate progenitor systems.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on the Correlation of IceCube Neutrinos with a Tracer of Nearby Large-scale Structure

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed extragalactic astrophysical neutrinos with an apparently isotropic distribution. Only a small fraction of the observed astrophysical neutrinos can be explained by known sources. Neutrino production is thought to occur in energetic environments that are ultimately powered by the gravitational collapse of dense regions of the large-scale mass distribution in the universe. Whatever their identity, neutrino sources likely trace this large-scale mass distribution. The clustering of neutrinos with a tracer of the large-scale structure may provide insight into the distribution of neutrino sources with respect to redshift and the identity of neutrino sources. We implement a two-point angular cross correlation of the Northern sky track events with an infrared galaxy catalog derived from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) source catalogs, which trace the nearby large-scale structure. No statistically significant correlation is found between the neutrinos and this infrared galaxy catalog. We find that ≤54% of the diffuse muon neutrino flux can be attributed to sources correlated with the galaxy catalog with 90% confidence. Additionally, when assuming that the neutrino source comoving density evolves following a power law in redshift, dN s /dV ∝ (1 + z) k , we find that sources with negative evolution, in particular k < −1.75, are disfavored at the 90% confidence level.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗
DOE OSTI2023

DELVE 6: An Ancient, Ultra-faint Star Cluster on the Outskirts of the Magellanic Clouds

Abstract We present the discovery of DELVE 6, an ultra-faint stellar system identified in the second data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey. Based on a maximum-likelihood fit to its structure and stellar population, we find that DELVE 6 is an old ( τ > 9.8 Gyr at 95% confidence) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] < −1.17 dex at 95% confidence) stellar system with an absolute magnitude of M V = − 1.5 − 0.6 + 0.4 mag and an azimuthally averaged half-light radius of r 1 / 2 = 10 − 3 + 4 pc. These properties are consistent with the population of ultra-faint star clusters uncovered by recent surveys. Interestingly, DELVE 6 is located at an angular separation of ∼10° from the center of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), corresponding to a 3D physical separation of ∼20 kpc given the system’s observed distance ( D ⊙ = 80 kpc). This also places the system ∼35 kpc from the center of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), lying within recent constraints on the size of the LMC’s dark matter halo. We tentatively measure the proper motion of DELVE 6 using data from Gaia, which we find supports a potential association between the system and the LMC/SMC. Although future kinematic measurements will be necessary to determine its origins, we highlight that DELVE 6 may represent only the second or third ancient ( τ > 9 Gyr) star cluster associated with the SMC, or one of fewer than two dozen ancient clusters associated with the LMC. Nonetheless, we cannot currently rule out the possibility that the system is a distant Milky Way halo star cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the largest source of uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming consistent with the observational record. The effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERFaci) is dominated by liquid clouds and is composed of two terms: the change in cloud albedo due to redistributing liquid over a larger number of cloud droplets (Nd) and the change in cloud macrophysical properties due to changes in cloud microphysics. These terms are, respectively, referred to as the radiative forcing due to ACI (RFaci) and aerosol–cloud adjustments. While the magnitude of RFaci is uncertain, its sign is confidently negative and results in a cooling in the historical record. In contrast, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP) to enhanced Nd and associated radiative forcing is uncertain in sign. Increased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with precipitation suppression, while decreased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with enhanced evaporation from cloud top. Observational constraints of these processes are poor in part because of causal ambiguity in the relationship between Nd and LWP. To better understand this relationship, precipitation (P), Nd, and LWP surface observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory are combined with the output from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). This allows for causal interpretation of observed covariability. Observations of precipitation and cloud from ENA constrain the range of possible LWP aerosol–cloud adjustments relative to the prior from the PPE by 15 %, resulting in a global value that is confidently positive (a historical cooling) ranging from 2.1 to 6.9 g m−2. It is found that observed covariability between Nd and LWP is dominated by coalescence scavenging and that this observed covariability is not strongly related to aerosol–cloud adjustments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classifying thermodynamic cloud phase using machine learning models

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud-phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Thermodynamic Cloud Phase (THERMOCLDPHASE) value-added product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify the thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave-radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured pixels are classified as ice, snow, mixed phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with 1 year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1 score, and mean intersection over union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows that ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential data streams for ML thermodynamic cloud-phase predictions. Lidar measurements exhibit lower feature importance due to rapid signal attenuation caused by the frequent presence of persistent low-level clouds at the NSA site. The ML models' generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. The models demonstrated similar performance to that observed at the NSA site. Finally, we evaluate the ML models' response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation and show that a CNN U-Net model trained with input channel dropouts performs better when input fields are missing.

ARM Aerial Facility↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of international collaboration in the United States geologic disposal research program

Abstract. More than a decade ago, the United States disposal program discontinued all research activities focused on the unsaturated fractured tuff formation at Yucca Mountain as the geologic disposal site for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. A new research and development (R&D) program was initiated to provide a sound technical basis for alternative disposal options across clay, crystalline, and salt rocks. The goals of this broad program were (and still are) to (1) increase confidence in the robustness of generic disposal concepts, (2) develop the science and engineering tools needed to support disposal concept implementation, and (3) conduct R&D on the direct disposal of existing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters. Recognizing the benefits of international collaboration toward the common goal of safely and efficiently managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the program emphasized international cooperation as an effective strategy for sharing information and knowledge. In a multi-laboratory effort coordinated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) program established formal and informal cooperation partnerships with several international initiatives and institutions and developed a number of collaborative R&D activities in important research areas, such as engineered barrier integrity, near-field perturbations, radionuclide transport, performance assessment, and methods for characterization and monitoring of engineered and natural barriers. This presentation gives an overview of these R&D activities, with a specific focus on activities that improve our current understanding of the coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical (THMC) processes occurring in engineered and natural barriers. We start with a brief review of selected international collaboration initiatives and then describe a few specific collaboration projects. We focus specifically on such studies that use experimental data sets provided by international research cooperation for joint modeling work to increase confidence in performance-relevant predictions of coupled processes. Overall, the focus on international collaboration has allowed deep engagement of US researchers with the international waste management R&D community in terms of best practices, new scientific advances, state-of-the-art simulation tools, new monitoring and performance confirmation approaches, and lessons learned. The joint R&D with international researchers, worldwide sharing of knowledge and experience, and access to relevant data and experiments from a variety of host rocks have helped our researchers to significantly improve their understanding of the current technical basis for disposal in a range of potential host rock environments. International collaboration also provides ample opportunity for training and educating junior staff that are well suited to move the United States disposal research program forward into the next decades, a promising avenue for developing a next-generation workforce of disposal scientists.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic Cloud Phase Classifications Using Machine Learning at NSA and ANX

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) THERMOCLDPHASE Value-Added Product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured voxels are classified as ice, snow, mixed-phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with one year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1-score, and mean Intersection over Union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential datastreams for ML thermodynamic cloud phase predictions. The ML models’ generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. Finally, we evaluate the ML models’ response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-driven insights into super protein complexes for outer membrane protein biogenesis in bacteria

To reach their final destinations, outer membrane proteins (OMPs) of gram-negative bacteria undertake an eventful journey beginning in the cytosol. Multiple molecular machines, chaperones, proteases, and other enzymes facilitate the translocation and assembly of OMPs. These helpers usually associate, often transiently, forming large protein assemblies. They are not well understood due to experimental challenges in capturing and characterizing protein-protein interactions (PPIs), especially transient ones. Using AF2Complex, we introduce a high-throughput, deep learning pipeline to identify PPIs within the Escherichia coli cell envelope and apply it to several proteins from an OMP biogenesis pathway. Among the top confident hits obtained from screening ~1500 envelope proteins, we find not only expected interactions but also unexpected ones with profound implications. Subsequently, we predict atomic structures for these protein complexes. These structures, typically of high confidence, explain experimental observations and lead to mechanistic hypotheses for how a chaperone assists a nascent, precursor OMP emerging from a translocon, how another chaperone prevents it from aggregating and docks to a β-barrel assembly port, and how a protease performs quality control. This work presents a general strategy for investigating biological pathways by using structural insights gained from deep learning-based predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of methods for SARS-CoV-2 variant detection and abundance estimation within mixed population samples

The accurate identification of SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) variants and estimation of their abundance in mixed population samples (e.g., air or wastewater) is imperative for successful surveillance of community level trends. Assessing the performance of SC2 variant composition estimators (VCEs) should improve our confidence in public health decision making. Here, we introduce a linear regression based VCE and compare its performance to four other VCEs: two re-purposed DNA sequence read classifiers (Kallisto and Kraken2), a maximum-likelihood based method (Lineage deComposition for Sars-Cov-2 pooled samples (LCS)), and a regression based method (Freyja). We simulated DNA sequence datasets of known variant composition from both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) platforms and assessed the performance of each VCE. We also evaluated VCEs performance using publicly available empirical wastewater samples collected for SC2 surveillance efforts. Bioinformatic analyses were performed with a custom NextFlow workflow (C-WAP, CFSAN Wastewater Analysis Pipeline). Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) was used as a measure of performance with respect to the known abundance and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to measure agreement between pairs of estimators. Based on our results from simulated data, Kallisto was the most accurate estimator as it had the lowest RRMSE, followed by Freyja. Kallisto and Freyja had the most similar predictions, reflected by the highest CCC metrics. We also found that accuracy was platform and amplicon panel dependent. For example, the accuracy of Freyja was significantly higher with Illumina data compared to ONT data; performance of Kallisto was best with ARTICv4. However, when analyzing empirical data there was poor agreement among methods and variations in the number of variants detected (e.g., Freyja ARTICv4 had a mean of 2.2 variants while Kallisto ARTICv4 had a mean of 10.1 variants). This work provides an understanding of the differences in performance of a number of VCEs and how accurate they are in capturing the relative abundance of SC2 variants within a mixed sample (e.g., wastewater). Such information should help officials gauge the confidence they can have in such data for informing public health decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1966

Design reliability goal developed from small sample

Sampling distributions, constructed by Monte Carlo simulation are used in hardware development to establish a design reliability goal, to place a confidence coefficient on reliability estimates, and to determine whether sample stress/strength data demonstrate a specified reliability at a specified confidence level.

Burrows, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Aerodynamic parameters of the Navion airplane extracted from flight

An iterative method, which is characterized as a maximum-likelihood minimum-variance technique, was used to extract the aerodynamic parameters of a Navion airplane from flight data. The purposes were to compare the results with parameters obtained from wind-tunnel tests and with results obtained by analog matching the same data, and to develop techniques for application of the parameter extraction program. Results from the study showed that the parameter-extraction program can produce aerodynamic parameters which will permit close estimation of the aircraft time histories used in the extraction process. The program determined an estimate of the standard deviations of the states and parameters. These estimates were used to indicate how well the calculated states fit the flight data and the confidence in the values of the estimated parameters. The study also showed that the values of the parameters were affected by the data and mathematical model used during the extraction process. Because of the lack of confidence in the parameters extracted by use of some of the sets of data, several parameters were estimated by other methods. By using a combination of methods, a set of parameters which gave a fit to the data was obtained.

Suit, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Keller, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Studies of cluster X-ray sources, energy spectra for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters

Final Uhuru X-ray differential-energy spectra are presented for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters. Power-law and isothermal bremsstrahlung model spectra with low-energy cutoffs are given, and the energy-dependent Gaunt factor is calculated for the bremsstrahlung. The spectra, which are best fits to the Uhuru data between 2 and 10 keV, are compared with previous observations of these sources in the energy range from 0.1 to 100 keV. The problem of parameter estimation is discussed, error bars with 68% confidence are given for the independently determined slope and cutoff parameters, and the 68% confidence limits are plotted for the fitted spectral functions. The data for Perseus above 20 keV marginally favor the bremsstrahlung fit, those for Virgo between 0.25 and 1.0 keV clearly favor that curve, and those for Coma indicate a low-energy turnover or cutoff. Implications of such a cutoff are briefly discussed.

Kellogg, E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A review of the state-of-the-art of the non-destructive testing of flight pressure vessels

The design of flight vessels is based on a nominal stress requirement and a fracture mechanics approach, and optimization of the weight of the vessel is based on the smallest size defect that can be detected with a high degree of confidence. The wide variety of metals used for fabrication, and the different defects that may be present in them at every stage, up to completion of the vessel, is described. Techniques currently being used for NDT are described along with their advantages, limitations and limits of detectability at high levels of confidence. Techniques considered for use in the future to improve the limits of the minimum flaw size that can currently be detected include the Delta Scan and Acoustic Emission techniques. The construction of space vessels for use in the future has been modified to reduce the presence of critical defects and so to improve the cost effectiveness of projected NDT requirements.

Noronha, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Volume Fraction Determination in Cast Superalloys and DS Eutectic Alloys by a New Practice for Manual Point Counting

Volume fraction of a constituent or phase was estimated in six specimens of conventional and DS-eutectic superalloys, using ASTM E562-76, a new standard recommended practice for determining volume fraction by systematic manual point count. Volume fractions determined ranged from 0.086 to 0.36, and with one exception, the 95 percent relative confidence limits were approximately 10 percent of the determined volume fractions. Since the confidence-limit goal of 10 percent, which had been arbitrarily chosen previously, was achieved in all but one case, this application of the new practice was considered successful.

Andrews, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗