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NASA NTRS2012

An Icy Kuiper Belt Around the Young Solar-type Star HD 181327

Context. HD 181327 is a young main sequence F5/F6 V star belonging to the Beta Pictoris moving group (age approx.. 12 Myr). It harbors an optically thin belt of circumstellar material at radius approx.. 90 AU, presumed to result from collisions in a population of unseen planetesimals. Aims. We aim to study the dust properties in the belt in details, and to constrain the gas-to-dust ratio. Methods. We obtained far-infrared photometric observations of HD 181327 with the PACS instrument onboard the Herschel Space Observatory, complemented by new 3.2 mm observations carried with the ATCA array. The geometry of the belt is constrained with newly reduced HST/NICMOS scattered light images that allow the degeneracy between the disk geometry and the dust properties to be broken. We then use the radiative transfer code GRaTeR to compute a large grid of models, and we identify the grain models that best reproduce the spectral energy distribution (SED) through a Bayesian analysis. We attempt to detect the oxygen and ionized carbon fine-structure lines with Herschel/PACS spectroscopy, providing observables to our photochemical code ProDiMo. Results. The HST observations confirm that the dust is confined in a narrow belt. The continuum is detected with Herschel/PACS completing nicely the SED in the far-infrared. The disk is marginally resolved with both PACS and ATCA. A medium integration of the gas spectral lines only provides upper limits on the [OI] and [CII] line fluxes.We show that the HD 181327 dust disk consists of micron-sized grains of porous amorphous silicates and carbonaceous material surrounded by an important layer of ice, for a total dust mass of approx.. 0.05 Solar Mass (in grains up to 1 mm). We discuss evidences that the grains consists of fluffy aggregates. The upper limits on the gas atomic lines do not provide unambiguous constraints: only if the PAH abundance is high, the gas mass must be lower than approx. 17 Solar Mass. Conclusions. Despite the weak constraints on the gas disk, the age of HD 181327 and the properties of the dust disk suggest that it has passed the stage of gaseous planets formation. The dust reveals a population of icy planetesimals, similar to the primitive Edgeworth-Kuiper belt, that may be a source for the future delivery of water and volatiles onto forming terrestrial planets.

HD 181327↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

D$e^+e^-$ffusion: Capturing the Beam-Beam Physics of $e^+e^-$ Collisions with Diffusion Models

Beam-induced backgrounds at high-luminosity $e^+e^-$ colliders, such as the FCC-ee, are dominated by incoherent pair creation (IPC), and require computationally expensive simulations with dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) event generators. Reliable detector and machine-detector interface studies necessitate event samples that are several orders of magnitude larger than what is practically attainable with existing MC. To alleviate this bottleneck, we present D$e^+e^-$ffusion, a denoising diffusion probabilistic model that operates as a permutation-equivariant, set-valued surrogate for fast IPC simulation. Trained on a small GuineaPig++ sample, D$e^+e^-$ffusion faithfully reproduces the marginal and joint kinematic, angular, and positional distributions of all three IPC production processes. In addition, we assess the fidelity at the detector level by propagating both Geant4 and D$e^+e^-$ffusion events through a Geant4 simulation of the CLD vertex detector and by training a transformer-based two-sample classifier; the classifier achieves an area under the ROC curve of $0.553 \pm 0.016$. The trained model generates events nearly four orders of magnitude faster than Geant4, paving the way for a fast-simulation surrogate for FCC-ee design studies.

Chahine, Antonio [Imperial Coll., London]↗

DOE OSTI2025

ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1982

Thick accretion disks - Self-similar, supercritical models

Self-similar models, characterized by near-equilibrium between gravity, centrifugal force and radiation pressure, are generated for geometrically thick, supercritical accretion disks analyzing their structure and stability. The assumption that hydrodynamic quantities scale as power laws in radius allows for computation of disk structure as a function of the angle from the rotation axis, given a viscosity law model to which the structure of the interior of the disk is sensitive. The behaviors of other hydrodynamic quantities near the surface depend on the viscosity law, but not on the degree of pressure support on the equator. All models are found to be unstable to local axisymmetric perturbations at high latitudes noting the role of convection in bringing the disk to marginal stability. It is recommended that future thick accretion disk models take into account both their convective nature and the dependence of their structure on the viscosity law.

Begelman, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Field and data analysis studies related to the atmospheric environment

This report summarizes work on a broad array of projects including: (1) applications of meteorological and/or oceanographic satellites; (2) improvement of the current set of NASA/USAF lightning related launch commit criteria rules; (3) the design, building, testing and deployment of a set of cylindrical field mills for aircraft use; (4) the study of marginal electrification storm conditions in relationship to the current launch commit rules for the space shuttle and various other launch vehicles using an instrumented aircraft; (5) support of the DC-8 and ER-2 lightning instrument package as part of both the Tropical Ocean - Global Atmospheric/Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment and the Convection and Moisture Experiment; (6) design of electronic circuitry and microprocessor firmware for the NASA Advanced Ground Based Field Mill; (7) design and testing of electronic and computer instrumentation for atmospheric electricity measurements; (8) simulating observations from a lightning imaging sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring satellite; and (9) supporting scientific visualization and the development of computer software tools.

Kidder, Stanley↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Computational Framework to Control Verification and Robustness Analysis

This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the robustness of a controller based on its ability to satisfy the design requirements. The framework proposed is generic since it allows for high-fidelity models, arbitrary control structures and arbitrary functional dependencies between the requirements and the uncertain parameters. The cornerstone of this contribution is the ability to bound the region of the uncertain parameter space where the degradation in closed-loop performance remains acceptable. The size of this bounding set, whose geometry can be prescribed according to deterministic or probabilistic uncertainty models, is a measure of robustness. The robustness metrics proposed herein are the parametric safety margin, the reliability index, the failure probability and upper bounds to this probability. The performance observed at the control verification setting, where the assumptions and approximations used for control design may no longer hold, will fully determine the proposed control assessment.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The influence of sweep on the aerodynamic loading of an oscillating NACA 0012 airfoil. Volume 1: Technical report

Aerodynamic experiments were performed on an oscillating NACA 0012 airfoil utilizing a tunnel-spanning wing in both unswept and 30 degree swept configurations. The airfoil was tested in steady state and in oscillatory pitch about the quarter chord. The unsteady aerodynamic loading was measured using pressure transducers along the chord. Numerical integrations of the unsteady pressure transducer responses were used to compute the normal force, chord force, and moment components of the induced loading. The effects of sweep on the induced aerodynamic load response was examined. For the range of parameters tested, it was found that sweeping the airfoil tends to delay the onset of dynamic stall. Sweeping was also found to reduce the magnitude of the unsteady load variation about the mean response. It was determined that at mean incidence angles greater than 9 degrees, sweep tends to reduce the stability margin of the NACA 0012 airfoil; however, for all cases tested, the airfoil was found to be stable in pure pitch. Turbulent eddies were found to convect downstream above the upper surface and generate forward-moving acoustic waves at the trailing edge which move upstream along the lower surface.

St.hilaire, A. O.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data

Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.

dose-response model↗

DOE OSTI2024

STAT7 v1.2 User Guide: The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for thermal hydraulics analyses of research and test reactors. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to the fit functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one latera stripe of a fuel element. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) Report

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY23

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Two Axis Pointing System (TAPS) attitude acquisition, determination, and control

The Two Axis Pointing System (TAPS) is a 2 axis gimbal system designed to provide fine pointing of Space Transportation System (STS) borne instruments. It features center-of-mass instrument mounting and will accommodate instruments of up to 1134 kg (2500 pounds) which fit within a 1.0 by 1.0 by 4.2 meter (40 by 40 by 166 inch) envelope. The TAPS system is controlled by a microcomputer based Control Electronics Assembly (CEA), a Power Distribution Unit (PDU), and a Servo Control Unit (SCU). A DRIRU-II inertial reference unit is used to provide incremental angles for attitude propagation. A Ball Brothers STRAP star tracker is used for attitude acquisition and update. The theory of the TAPS attitude determination and error computation for the Broad Band X-ray Telescope (BBXRT) are described. The attitude acquisition is based upon a 2 star geometric solution. The acquisition theory and quaternion algebra are presented. The attitude control combines classical position, integral and derivative (PID) control with techniques to compensate for coulomb friction (bias torque) and the cable harness crossing the gimbals (spring torque). Also presented is a technique for an adaptive bias torque compensation which adjusts to an ever changing frictional torque environment. The control stability margins are detailed, with the predicted pointing performance, based upon simulation studies. The TAPS user interface, which provides high level operations commands to facilitate science observations, is outlined.

Azzolini, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Utilization of an agility assessment module in analysis and optimization of preliminary fighter configuration

A study has been conducted to develop and to analyze a FORTRAN computer code for performing agility analysis on fighter aircraft configurations. This program is one of the modules of the NASA Ames ACSYNT (AirCraft SYNThesis) design code. The background of the agility research in the aircraft industry and a survey of a few agility metrics are discussed. The methodology, techniques, and models developed for the code are presented. The validity of the existing code was evaluated by comparing with existing flight test data. A FORTRAN program was developed for a specific metric, PM (Pointing Margin), as part of the agility module. Example trade studies using the agility module along with ACSYNT were conducted using a McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet aircraft model. Tile sensitivity of thrust loading, wing loading, and thrust vectoring on agility criteria were investigated. The module can compare the agility potential between different configurations and has capability to optimize agility performance in the preliminary design process. This research provides a new and useful design tool for analyzing fighter performance during air combat engagements in the preliminary design.

Ngan, Angelen↗

NASA NTRS2005

Large Engine Technology Program. Task 22: Variable Geometry Concepts for Rich-Quench-Lean Combustors

The objective of the task reported herein was to define, evaluate, and optimize variable geometry concepts suitable for use with a Rich-Quench-Lean (RQL) combustor. The specific intent was to identify approaches that would satisfy High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) cycle operational requirements with regard to fuel-air ratio turndown capability, ignition, and stability margin without compromising the stringent emissions, performance, and reliability goals that this combustor would have to achieve. Four potential configurations were identified and three of these were refined and tested in a high-pressure modular RQL combustor rig. The tools used in the evolution of these concepts included models built with rapid fabrication techniques that were tested for airflow characteristics to confirm sizing and airflow management capability, spray patternation, and atomization characterization tests of these models and studies that were supported by Computational Fluid Dynamics analyses. Combustion tests were performed with each of the concepts at supersonic cruise conditions and at other critical conditions in the flight envelope, including the transition points of the variable geometry system, to identify performance, emissions, and operability impacts. Based upon the cold flow characterization, emissions results, acoustic behavior observed during the tests and consideration of mechanical, reliability, and implementation issues, the tri-swirler configuration was selected as the best variable geometry concept for incorporation in the RQL combustor evolution efforts for the HSCT.

Tacina, Robert R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

MASCOT - MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox

MASCOT software was created to provide the conceptual aircraft designer accurate predictions of air vehicle stability and control characteristics. The code takes as input mass property data in the form of an inertia tensor, aerodynamic loading data, and propulsion (i.e. thrust) loading data. Using fundamental non-linear equations of motion, MASCOT then calculates vehicle trim and static stability data for any desired flight condition. Common predefined flight conditions are included. The predefined flight conditions include six horizontal and six landing rotation conditions with varying options for engine out, crosswind and sideslip, plus three takeoff rotation conditions. Results are displayed through a unique graphical interface developed to provide stability and control information to the conceptual design engineers using a qualitative scale indicating whether the vehicle has acceptable, marginal, or unacceptable static stability characteristics. This software allows the user to prescribe the vehicle s CG location, mass, and inertia tensor so that any loading configuration between empty weight and maximum take-off weight can be analyzed. The required geometric and aerodynamic data as well as mass and inertia properties may be entered directly, passed through data files, or come from external programs such as Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP). The current version of MASCOT has been tested with VSP used to compute the required data, which is then passed directly into the program. In VSP, the vehicle geometry is created and manipulated. The aerodynamic coefficients, stability and control derivatives, are calculated using VorLax, which is now available directly within VSP. MASCOT has been written exclusively using the technical computing language MATLAB . This innovation is able to bridge the gap between low-fidelity conceptual design and higher-fidelity stability and control analysis. This new tool enables the conceptual design engineer to include detailed static stability and trim constraints in the conceptual design loop. The unique graphical interface developed for this tool presents the stability data in a format that is understandable by the conceptual designer, yet also provides the detailed quantitative results if desired.

Kenny, Sean↗