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Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios

A growing number of studies report the impact of climate change on the supply, demand, transport, and cost of energy. However, there is lack of comprehensive overview and understanding of climate change impacts on energy across technologies and scales. Here, we conduct a systematic assessment of results from 186 papers on potential impacts of climate change on energy. Results show that increased cooling demand and decreased heating demand is anticipated globally. Similarly, increases in bio-energy and hydro power and a possible decrease in thermal electricity supply is projected. Overall changes in heating and cooling demand, increased thermal cooling, and reduced hydropower supply in Europe, India and Latin America are projected 35 at the regional scale. Furthermore, our review revealed that studies use a wide range of inconsistent methods and data sources. To move forward, the study proposes a consistent multi-model assessment framework for a comprehensive understanding of climate impacts on energy.

Yalew, Seleshi G.↗

RELAP5-3D Capabilities for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Analysis

RELAP5-3D is the premier systems thermal-hydraulic code in the world. The code has been used significantly for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) analyses over the last 10 years, but there has not been a comprehensive summary of RELAP5-3D capabilities and methods for HTGR modeling. In this paper, we provide a guide for how novice users can build models for prismatic HTGRs. This guide includes best practices for developing heat structures and setting up radiation and conduction heat transfer. We also provide a summary of relevant validation studies. These studies are divided into three categories: separate effects tests, integral effects tests, and nuclear reactor studies. We present a comprehensive review of RELAP5-3D HTGR applications for reactor modeling over the last 10 years. These applications include work for the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor benchmark, design activities for a prismatic HTGR as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Demonstration and Test Reactor Options Study, and studies performed to design gas-cooled microreactors. Following the comprehensive literature review, we present a gap analysis highlighting capabilities of RELAP5-3D that are available and missing for a complete analysis of HTGR thermal hydraulics. We also discuss the limitations of existing code capabilities and potential improvements that could improve analyses. Current research efforts have yet to fully validate RELAP5-3D for a prismatic HTGR analysis; however, some of this is attributable to confounding factors in the available experimental data as opposed to code capabilities. In conclusion, this paper presents the most comprehensive review to date on RELAP5-3D capabilities, limitations, and applications for HTGR analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracturing in granitic rocks using active and passive seismic monitoring

SUMMARY Knowledge of the fracturing processes can be important for the optimization of pressurized fluid injection operations in the deep underground rock mass. Active and passive seismic monitoring techniques have been used in the field for tracking or mapping the propagating hydraulic fracture. Although both these monitoring techniques provide valuable information about the generated fracture network, it is difficult for either technique to comprehensibly identify the different processes associated with hydraulic fracturing. The combined active and passive monitoring has the potential for better characterization of the complex hydraulic fracturing phenomena. In this study, laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments with combined active and passive seismic monitoring were conducted on true triaxially loaded Barre granite cubes with different fluid injection rates. The seismic inelastic fracturing was detected by 16 passive acoustic emission sensors, where 3678 and 2370 seismic source events were detected for the high and low injection rate experiments, respectively. For active monitoring, strong variations in the attributes of signals were observed which were transmitted through four source–receiver pairs, placed both perpendicular and parallel to the generated hydraulic fracture. Positive velocity changes were observed for active sensor pairs with ray paths passing through the generated hydraulic fracture indicating fluid permeation, whereas isolated dry deformation was characterized by a slight but permanent velocity decrease. Compared to velocity, the energy of the active signals was 1–2 orders of magnitude more sensitive to different hydraulic fracturing processes. However, the sensitivity and signatures of the active signal attributes were found to be dependent on the frequency range and direction of ray path with respect to the location of the generated fracture network. Using the coupled evaluation of the active and passive signals we were able to systematically identify various hydraulic fracturing processes including: (1) aseismic deformation, (2) fracture initiation and fluid permeation, (3) pressure build-up, (4) fracture propagation and (5) pressure release and leak-off. The results of this study showed that combining the respective advantages of active and passive seismic techniques and using both of them to monitor the failure processes can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding and better control of the hydraulic stimulations in subsurface operations.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Cyber-Physical Dynamic System (CPDS) Modeling for Frequency Regulation and AGC Services of Distributed Energy Resources

The substantial integration of renewable energy brings significant challenges to balance the system in real time because of the variability and intermittency of renewable power. For the reliable system operation, the frequency regulation service is used to stabilize the system frequency through automatically balancing the system generation and load. On one hand, with the substantially increasing deployment of renewable energy in electricity system, the requirement of frequency regulation (FR) services increases significantly. On the other hand, the current main resource of FR services, the controllable conventional generation, is continuously decreasing in the system generation mix. This means that in the future high renewable penetration power system, additional and alternative reliable FR services providers such as distributed energy storage (DES) resources should be explored. Although the capability of utility-scale energy storage to provide FR services has been demonstrated, the integrated control and dynamic modeling of distributed energy resource (DER) providing frequency regulation grid services has been rarely explored. There are several challenges to adopt DERs to provide reliable grid services as illustrated in FERC 755. First, the distributed installation of DES requires a comprehensive cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) modeling to fully consider the impacts of the communication latency variability on its real time FR provision capability. Unlike the conventional generators, there are two-layer communication between DERs and system operators which increase the communication delay. Second, unlike the conventional generators whose dynamic models have been comprehensively studied, the difference among individual DER components' power-dynamic characteristic brings challenges in the accurate dynamic AGC modeling of its power-frequency relationship. Third, the temporal dependent state of charge uncertainty of DERs challenges DERs' power and frequency regulation capacities scheduling in the look-ahead generation scheduling. Therefore, the aggregator should optimize the frequency regulation provision from individual DER in real time. To overcome these challenges, this project proposes a cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) model to handle the uncertainty of DERs two-layer communication latency and power dynamics. The variability of DERs' communication delay and dynamic constraints will be comprehensively modeled. The DERs' AGC model with communication delay is designed to validate DESs' frequency regulation services. Like current performance-based frequency regulation evaluation, the delivery of DERs' frequency regulation will be assessed through post-analysis of the actual AGC response with respect to the AGC control signal from system operators. Consequently, the reliability improvement with DERs providing reliable frequency regulation services can be evaluated from a comprehensive perspective considering all the dynamics of communication and power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The Linear Collider Facility (LCF) at CERN

In this paper we outline a proposal for a Linear Collider Facility as the next flagship project for CERN. It offers the opportunity for a timely, cost-effective and staged construction of a new collider that will be able to comprehensively map the Higgs boson's properties, including the Higgs field potential, thanks to a large span in centre-of-mass energies and polarised beams. A comprehensive programme to study the Higgs boson and its closest relatives with high precision requires data at centre-of-mass energies from the Z pole to at least 1 TeV. It should include measurements of the Higgs boson in both major production mechanisms, ee -> ZH and ee -> vvH, precision measurements of gauge boson interactions as well as of the W boson, Higgs boson and top-quark masses, measurement of the top-quark Yukawa coupling through ee ->ttH, measurement of the Higgs boson self-coupling through HH production, and precision measurements of the electroweak couplings of the top quark. In addition, ee collisions offer discovery potential for new particles complementary to HL-LHC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A workflow for automatic generation and efficient refinement of individual pressure-dependent networks

Manual chemical kinetic model construction often requires modelists to at least implicitly guess all possible decay pathways and their relative fluxes for all important species. We present a workflow and associated tool for automatic generation and re finement of pressure-dependent networks that should enable modelists to efficiently and comprehensively identify decay pathways and estimate respective parameters for chemical species. This tool combines the capabilities of the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software to generate possible reaction paths, determine thermochemistry, approximate rate coefficients and estimate frequencies with the capabilities of the Arkane software to use quantum chemical parameters to compute thermochemistry and pressure dependent rates. A flux-based algorithm is used to decide which isomers to add to the network. Isomers added to the network are reacted to form other channels. When enough of the flux is accounted for by the isomers and bimolecular product channels, the generation process terminates to yield a comprehensive network. Network sensitivity analysis is applied to the network to identify the most important wells and barriers that can be refined using quantum chemistry calculations. Iterative refinement can then be used to achieve accuracy. The comprehensive network can be easily reduced using energy and flux-based algorithms to the most important channels and isomers in the network.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))

Abstract Simulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

60 Years and Beyond of Reviews of Geophysics

Reviews of Geophysics is an AGU journal, first established in February 1963. It is a hybrid open access invitation-only journal that publishes comprehensive review articles across various disciplines within the Earth and Space Sciences. The selection criteria are rigorous and many submissions are declined without review. The journal is the highest ranked in the fields of Geochemistry and Geophysics, with a high Journal Impact Factor (JIF 2021 = 24.9), which is indicative of its high visibility and influence within the scientific community. The journal's published review papers, beyond a mere summary of literature, provide crucial context for current work, and establish the framework for comprehensive understanding of research progress, challenges, and interconnections between different communities, so that research may be appreciated by a broad audience. Finally, we emphasize the importance of publishing studies that provide a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the current state of knowledge in a field, especially in the case of geophysics, where knowledge is rapidly developing, increasing and becoming more specialized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Expert evaluation of LLM world models: A high-T c superconductivity case study

Large Language Models (LLMs) show great promise as a powerful tool for scientific literature exploration. However, their effectiveness in providing scientifically accurate and comprehensive answers to complex questions within specialized domains remains an active area of research. Using the field of high-temperature cuprates as an exemplar, we evaluate the ability of LLM systems to understand the literature at the level of an expert. We construct an expert-curated database of 1,726 scientific papers that covers the history of the field, and a set of 67 expert-formulated questions that probe deep understanding of the literature. We then evaluate six different LLM-based systems for answering these questions, including both commercially available closed models and a custom retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system capable of retrieving images alongside text. Experts then evaluate the answers of these systems against a rubric that assesses balanced perspectives, factual comprehensiveness, succinctness, and evidentiary support. Among the six systems, two using RAG on curated literature outperformed existing closed models across key metrics, particularly in providing comprehensive and well-supported answers. We discuss promising aspects of LLM performances as well as critical short-comings of all the models. The set of expert-formulated questions and the rubric will be valuable for assessing expert level performance of LLM based reasoning systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ECON-T and ECON-D: Endcap Concentrator ASICs for the CMS HGCAL

With over 6 million channels, the High Granularity Calorimeter (HGCAL) for the CMS HL-LHC Upgrade presents a unique data challenge. The ECON ASICs provide critical on-detector data reduction for the 40 MHz trigger path (ECON-T) and 750 kHz data acquisition path (ECON-D) of the HGCAL. The ASICs, fabricated in 65 nm CMOS, are rad-tolerant (600 Mrad) with low power consumption (<2.5 mW/channel). This presentation is the first comprehensive description of the ECON designs, first functionality and radiation tests for the ECON-T ASIC, and first results from the full production of 75k ECON-D and ECON-T ASICs.

Bergamin, G. [CERN] (ORCID:0000000285758704)↗

Mid-latitude clouds contribute to Arctic amplification via interactions with other climate feedbacks

Abstract Traditional feedback analyses, which assume that individual climate feedback mechanisms act independently and add linearly, suggest that clouds do not contribute to Arctic amplification. However, feedback locking experiments, in which the cloud feedback is disabled, suggest that clouds, particularly outside of the Arctic, do contribute to Arctic amplification. Here, we reconcile these two perspectives by introducing a framework that quantifies the interactions between radiative feedbacks, radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, and atmospheric heat transport. We show that including the cloud feedback in a comprehensive climate model can result in Arctic amplification because of interactions with other radiative feedbacks. The surface temperature change associated with including the cloud feedback is amplified in the Arctic by the surface-albedo, Planck, and lapse-rate feedbacks. A moist energy balance model with a locked cloud feedback exhibits similar behavior as the comprehensive climate model with a disabled cloud feedback and further indicates that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes to Arctic amplification via feedback interactions. Feedback locking in the moist energy balance model also suggests that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification across comprehensive climate models. These results imply that constraining the mid-latitude cloud feedback will greatly reduce the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. Furthermore, these results highlight a previously unrecognized non-local pathway for Arctic amplification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A High-Speed High-Power-Density Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Permanent Magnet Traction Motor

There has been a global push for higher torque density and lower cost traction motors. The use of non-heavy rare-earth (non-HRE) permanent magnet materials in traction motors are being investigated for the sustainability, profitability and affordability of electric vehicles and to broaden their adoption. A 20,000-rpm permanent magnet traction motor using non-HRE magnet materials is proposed. A dual three-phase winding configuration driven by a segmented dual three-phase drive is proposed to reduce the current ripple, and as a result, the DC Link capacitor, as well as to ease the voltage constraint at high speed and eliminate any risk of uncontrolled regeneration. Furthermore, the dual winding configuration enables a fault tolerant design which is useful for reliability. The paper presents comprehensive electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical designs and analyses using an integrated approach. The results have shown that the design is robust against demagnetization and confirmed its thermal and mechanical viability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Experimental Characterization Test of a Grid-Forming Inverter for Microgrid Applications

Standardized experimental testing protocols for grid forming (GFM) inverters to ensure expected operation under both normal and contingency conditions do not exist. Such protocols increase the confidence of system owner/operators that an inverter deployed in a proposed system will engage in typical behaviors to ensure interoperability with other units and ancillary equipment (e.g. protection equipment). This paper presents systematic and comprehensive test protocols to evaluate the performance of GFM inverters under the following operational configurations: islanded operation, heterogeneous islanded operation (parallel with a synchronous generator), grid-connected operation, and transition operation. A commercial GFM inverter is used to verify the test protocols and to understand the inverter's performance and functionalities. In particular, required configuration and tuning of the inverter will be explained in the full paper to enrich the testing protocol.

black start↗

Grid Strength Assessment for High Levels of Inverter-based Resources in the Puerto Rico Power

A system-wide assessment of the Puerto Rico power system grid strength is studied when considering high levels of inverter-based resource penetration. This study is carried out in PSSE and assesses the impact of inverter-based resource (IBR) contributions in response to three-phase ground faults. A hypothetical 100% inverter-based generation scenario is created to assess the extreme impact on short circuit levels and a realistic scenario is considered to assess the impact to short circuit ratios. The overall conclusion is that short circuit capacity and current will drastically decrease in a high IBR scenario, an effect that is quantified in this paper. The short circuit ratio metric is typically used to assess the impact of IBR but generally overestimates grid strength due to not accounting for the impact from multiple IBRs. Other methods such as equivalent circuit based short circuit ratio and weighted short circuit ratio offer a more comprehensive consideration for multiple IBRs and can better account for their mutual interactions. The work presented in this paper is part of the PR100 study.

inverter based resources, PR100, grid strength↗

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper presents the analysis which help visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient grid operations.

behind-the-meter↗