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NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Scale Computational Modeling of Two-Phased Metal Using GMC Method

A multi-scale computational model for determining plastic behavior in two-phased CMSX-4 Ni-based superalloys is developed on a finite element analysis (FEA) framework employing crystal plasticity constitutive model that can capture the microstructural scale stress field. The generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model is used for homogenizing the local field quantities. At first, GMC as stand-alone is validated by analyzing a repeating unit cell (RUC) as a two-phased sample with 72.9% volume fraction of gamma'-precipitate in the gamma-matrix phase and comparing the results with those predicted by finite element analysis (FEA) models incorporating the same crystal plasticity constitutive model. The global stress-strain behavior and the local field quantity distributions predicted by GMC demonstrated good agreement with FEA. High computational saving, at the expense of some accuracy in the components of local tensor field quantities, was obtained with GMC. Finally, the capability of the developed multi-scale model linking FEA and GMC to solve real life sized structures is demonstrated by analyzing an engine disc component and determining the microstructural scale details of the field quantities.

nickel alloys↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

OSSE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Optimization of Turbine Engine Cycle Analysis with Analytic Derivatives

A new engine cycle analysis tool, called Pycycle, was recently built using the OpenMDAO framework. This tool uses equilibrium chemistry based thermodynamics, and provides analytic derivatives. This allows for stable and efficient use of gradient-based optimization and sensitivity analysis methods on engine cycle models, without requiring the use of finite difference derivative approximation methods. To demonstrate this, a gradient-based design optimization was performed on a multi-point turbofan engine model. Results demonstrate very favorable performance compared to an optimization of an identical model using finite-difference approximated derivatives.

Turbine engine↗

NASA NTRS1992

First Results from TROLIX 1991: an Intercomparison of Tropospheric Ozone Lidars

Within the framework of the European environmental research programme EUROTRAC, lidar systems for routine measurements of vertical ozone profiles throughout the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere are currently under development. Several of these systems are now operational and an intercomparison experiment was undertaken in the period from June 10 to June 28, 1991 in Bilthoven, the Netherlands. The main scientific objectives defined for the campaign are: (1) compare the lidar measurements to in situ measurements of the ozone concentration; (2) determine how many and which wavelengths are needed for a sufficiently accurate ozone retrieval in the lower troposphere under realistic conditions; (3) assess the accuracy that can be achieved under realistic conditions; and (4) compare the performance of the participating systems.

Apituley, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Better Constraining Supercooled Clouds Could Reduce Projected Warming Spread

The increase of climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) compared to CMIP5 ESMs is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud response to climate change, referred to as cloud feedback. The ratio of supercooled liquid cloud water relative to all cloud water, termed liquid phase ratio (LPR), which has also notably increased in many recent ESMs, is thought to be a primary driver of the extratropical cloud feedback increase. Unlike the preponderance of previous studies that compare native model LPR directly with observations, here we evaluate LPR over three ESM generations against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) using an instrument simulator approach, which mimics instrument limitations and uses consistent cloud definitions and resolutions. We find that current coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) ESMs collectively simulate greater LPR than previous CMIP generations and overestimate LPR compared to observations, contrary to previous findings, likely driven by past inconsistent comparisons of ESM outputs with CALIPSO observations. We further show that greater LPR in ESM present-day climate is unexpectedly correlated with a smaller extratropical cloud feedback, attributable to a decrease of cloud amount exceeding the increase of cloud optical depth. Finally, our results suggest that improving constraints on model LPR using our evaluation framework would likely reduce the spread in CMIP6 climate sensitivities, owing to its effect on extratropical cloud feedback from supercooled clouds.

greenhouse gas concentrations↗

NASA NTRS1993

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Salby, Murry L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Discovery of Nearly Coherent Oscillations with a Frequency of approximately 567 Hz During Type I X-ray Bursts of the X-ray Transient and Eclipsing Binary X1658-298

We report the discovery of nearly coherent oscillations with a frequency of approximately 567 Hz during type I X-ray bursts from the X-ray transient and eclipsing binary X1658-298. If these oscillations are directly related to the neutron star rotation, then the spin period of the neutron star in X1658-298 is approximately 1.8 ms. The oscillations can be present during the rise or decay phase of the bursts. Oscillations during the decay phase of the bursts show an increase in frequency of approximately 0.5-1 Hz. However, in one particular burst the oscillations reappear at the end of the decay phase at about 571.5 Hz. This represents an increase in oscillation frequency of about 5 Hz, which is the largest frequency change seen so far in a burst oscillation. It is unclear if such a large change can be accommodated by present models used to explain the frequency evolution of the oscillations. The oscillations at 571.5 Hz are unusually soft compared to the oscillations found at 567 Hz. We also observed several bursts during which the oscillations are detected at much lower significance or not at all. Most of these bursts happen during periods of X-ray dipping behavior, suggesting that the X-ray dipping might decrease the amplitude of the oscillations (although several complications exist with this simple picture). We discuss our discovery in the framework of the neutron star spin interpretation.

Wijnands, Rudy↗

NASA NTRS2009

Application of CFE/POST2 for Simulation of Launch Vehicle Stage Separation

The constraint force equation (CFE) methodology provides a framework for modeling constraint forces and moments acting at joints that connect multiple vehicles. With implementation in Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST 2), the CFE provides a capability to simulate end-to-end trajectories of launch vehicles, including stage separation. In this paper, the CFE/POST2 methodology is applied to the Shuttle-SRB separation problem as a test and validation case. The CFE/POST2 results are compared with STS-1 flight test data.

Pamadi, Bandu N.↗

NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

NASA NTRS1989

Deuterium and He-3 in cosmic rays

Observation of a large flux of antiprotons in cosmic rays prompted many to postulate new ideas relating to the origin and propagation of cosmic rays in the Galaxy, within the framework of the secondary hypothesis. Under this hypothesis, cosmic rays traverse a large amount of matter either in the source region or in the interstellar space. As a result, large amounts of deuterium and He-3 are also produced as a consequence of spallation of helium and heavier nuclei. In this paper, the spectra of these isotopes are derived, using various models for the propagation of cosmic rays and compare with the existing observations.

Stephens, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Ra: The Sun for Science and Humanity

To guide the development of the Ra Strategic Framework, we defined scientific and applications objectives. For our primary areas of scientific interest, we choose the corona, the solar wind, the Sun's effect on the Earth, and solar theory and model development. For secondary areas of scientific interest, we selected sunspots, the solar constant, the Sun's gravitational field, helioseismology and the galactic cosmic rays. We stress the importance of stereoscopic imaging, observations at high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, as well as of long duration measurements. Further exploration of the Sun's polar regions is also important, as shown already by the Ulysses mission. From an applications perspective, we adopted three broad objectives that would derive complementary inputs for the Strategic Framework. These were to identify and investigate: possible application spin-offs from science missions, possible solar-terrestrial missions dedicated to a particular application, and possible future applications that require technology development. The Sun can be viewed as both a source of resources and of threats. Our principal applications focus was that of threat mitigation, by examining ways to improve solar threat monitoring and early warning systems. We compared these objectives to the mission objectives of past, current, and planned international solar missions. Past missions (1962-1980) seem to have been focused on improvement of scientific knowledge, using multiple instrument spacecraft. A ten year gap followed this period, during which the results from previous missions were analyzed and solar study programmes were prepared in international organizations. Current missions (1990-1996) focus on particular topics such as the corona, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. In planned missions, Sun/Earth interactions and environmental effects of solar activity are becoming more important. The corona is the centre of interest of almost all planned missions. It seems that no international long-term strategy has yet been adopted. For these plans the number of necessary future missions can be reduced and the onboard instrumentation can be optimized by performing a comparative analysis. The study of the corona must be done from different observing locations, orbits closer to the Sun, and by different means. The Cluster mission replacement is in progress; however, if the replacement is not implemented, the ISTP programme will fade after 1998. Furthermore, the physics of the Sun's interior should be emphasized more in the Mid- and Far-Term programmes. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on monitoring space weather and forecasting Sun/Earth interactions.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗

NASA NTRS2022

Boulder County Disasters: Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment and Wildfire

In recent years, record-breaking wildfire activities in the western US illustrate the need for fire mitigation efforts, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change while fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI, SRTM, Sentinel-2 MSI, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from measurements from plots on the ground. Results indicate that the correlations are R2=0.76 for aboveground live carbon, R2=0.44 for standing carbon, and R2=0.43 for aboveground dead carbon (R2=0.43), and R2=0.35 for total carbon (R2=0.35). Additionally, 38.5% of total carbon was stored in dead carbon and 14.4% was stored in live carbon. We next compared the post-fire pools between treated and untreated areas. Our analysis suggests fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish the post-fire carbon in the treated and untreated areas. However, our final carbon maps still provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remotely sensed data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

NASA NTRS1974

Nonproportional loading limit for structures

The design of most structures involves ensuring integrity for several independent loading conditions. Often, it is rational to design these, exploiting the ductility of the materials to reduce structural costs. Then, ensuring integrity evokes the need for nonmonotonic limit analyses. A groundwork is laid for implementing these analyses. An alternate limit load characterization to that of Greenberg is provided, a mathematical statement of the problem leading to both monotonic (proportional) and nonmonotonic limit loads values is formulated, a direct limit load analysis procedure for analysis within a finite-element framework is described, and limit loads for sets of simple structures are evaluated. A direct limit analysis process is described, and monotonic limit loads are characterized. The process furnishes 'exact' values of limit loads with increasing efficiency as the number of structural elements and force redundancy decreases. Tests show that the accuracy of predicting nonmonotonic limit loads is very sensitive to the number of degrees of freedom in the analysis compared with the total number in the model.

Melosh, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The moon's permanent magnetic field - A cratered-shell model

The possibility is considered that the properties of the larger-scale lunar magnetic field may depend in a rather straightforward manner on the geometrical properties of the distribution of larger craters. The relevant effects of cratering are analyzed in the framework of a model of a spherically symmetric shell magnetized to some specific intensity by a concentric dipolar magnetic field. The remanent dipole moment of the model is determined by calculating the dipole moment of the material removed to form craters and them computing the remanent dipole moment for three mutually orthogonal orientations of the magnetizing dipole. The resulting absolute values for the remanent dipole moment are found to be comparable to the upper limit of 10 to the -19th power G-cu cm estimated from Apollo subsatellite measurements. It is concluded that for a crust with an empirically reasonable mean magnetization, the craters can account for a dipole moment as great as that indicated by the estimated upper limit.

Weiss, H.↗

NASA NTRS1978

On the propagation of cosmic rays in the Galaxy

Cosmic ray propagation in the Galaxy is examined within the framework of the leaky-box model, whereby phenomenological aspects of diffusion and propagation are related to the physical properties of the interstellar medium. The model is parameterized by data on composition, spectra, spectral change as a function of energy, and cosmic ray particle lifetime. It is assumed that electrons and nucleons have a common source within the Galaxy (probably associated with supernova remnants). Lifetime data and leakage length are compared with radio synchrotron and gamma-ray data to establish a place of origin for cosmic rays observed at earth, i.e., at a radius of 0.5-1.0 kpc from earth. It is noted that if the escape length becomes energy independent, all nuclear spectra will flatten, while the electron spectrum remains unchanged.

Ormes, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Deficiency of ''Thin'' Stellar Bars in Seyfert Host Galaxies

Using all available major samples of Seyfert galaxies and their corresponding control samples of closely matched non-active galaxies, we find that the bar ellipticities (or axial ratios) in Seyfert galaxies are systematically different from those in non-active galaxies. Overall, there is a deficiency of bars with large ellipticities (i.e., 'fat' or 'weak' bars) in Seyferts, compared to non-active galaxies. Accompanied with a large dispersion due to small number statistics, this effect is strictly speaking at the 2 sigma level. To obtain this result, the active galaxy samples of near-infrared surface photometry were matched to those of normal galaxies in type, host galaxy ellipticity, absolute magnitude, and, to some extent, in redshift. We discuss possible theoretical explanations of this phenomenon within the framework of galactic evolution, and, in particular, of radial gas redistribution in barred galaxies. Our conclusions provide further evidence that Seyfert hosts differ systematically from their non-active counterparts on scales of a few kpc.

Shlosman, Isaac↗