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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Parameter estimation in a structural acoustic system with fully nonlinear coupling conditions

A methodology for estimating physical parameters in a class of structural acoustic systems is presented. The general model under consideration consists of an interior cavity which is separated from an exterior noise source by an enclosing elastic structure. Piezoceramic patches are bonded to or embedded in the structure; these can be used both as actuators and sensors in applications ranging from the control of interior noise levels to the determination of structural flaws through nondestructive evaluation techniques. The presence and excitation of patches, however, changes the geometry and material properties of the structure as well as involves unknown patch parameters, thus necessitating the development of parameter estimation techniques which are applicable in this coupled setting. In developing a framework for approximation, parameter estimation and implementation, strong consideration is given to the fact that the input operator is unbonded due to the discrete nature of the patches. Moreover, the model is weakly nonlinear. As a result of the coupling mechanism between the structural vibrations and the interior acoustic dynamics. Within this context, an illustrating model is given, well-posedness and approximations results are discussed and an applicable parameter estimation methodology is presented. The scheme is then illustrated through several numerical examples with simulations modeling a variety of commonly used structural acoustic techniques for systems excitations and data collection.

Banks, H. T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Monte Carlo Transport and Conjugate Heat Transfer for Wire-Wrapped Bundles Within the MOOSE Framework

Cardinal is an open-source application that couples OpenMC Monte Carlo transport and NekRS computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), closing neutronics and thermal-fluid gaps in conducting high-resolution multiscale and multiphysics analyses of nuclear systems. We first provide a brief introduction to Cardinal's software design, data mapping, and coupling strategy to highlight our approach to overcoming common challenges in high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. Here we then present two Cardinal simulations for hexagonal pin bundles. The first is a validation of Cardinal's conjugate heat transfer coupling of NekRS's Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes model with MOOSE's heat conduction physics for a bare seven-pin Freon-12 bundle flow experiment. Predictions for pin surface temperatures under three different heating modes agree reasonably well with experimental data and similar CFD modeling from the literature. The second simulation is a multiphysics coupling of OpenMC, NekRS, and BISON for a reduced-scale, seven-pin wire-wrapped version of an Advanced Burner Reactor bundle. Wire wraps are approximated using a momentum source model, and coupled predictions are provided for velocity, temperature, and power distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enzyme activities predicted by metabolite concentrations and solvent capacity in the cell

Experimental measurements or computational model predictions of the post-translational regulation of enzymes needed in a metabolic pathway is a difficult problem. Consequently, regulation is mostly known only for well-studied reactions of central metabolism in various model organisms. In this study, we use two approaches to predict enzyme regulation policies and investigate the hypothesis that regulation is driven by the need to maintain the solvent capacity in the cell. The first predictive method uses a statistical thermodynamics and metabolic control theory framework while the second method is performed using a hybrid optimization–reinforcement learning approach. Efficient regulation schemes were learned from experimental data that either agree with theoretical calculations or result in a higher cell fitness using maximum useful work as a metric. As previously hypothesized, regulation is herein shown to control the concentrations of both immediate and downstream product concentrations at physiological levels. Model predictions provide the following two novel general principles: (1) the regulation itself causes the reactions to be much further from equilibrium instead of the common assumption that highly non-equilibrium reactions are the targets for regulation; and (2) the minimal regulation needed to maintain metabolite levels at physiological concentrations maximizes the free energy dissipation rate instead of preserving a specific energy charge. The resulting energy dissipation rate is an emergent property of regulation which may be represented by a high value of the adenylate energy charge. In addition, the predictions demonstrate that the amount of regulation needed can be minimized if it is applied at the beginning or branch point of a pathway, in agreement with common notions. The approach is demonstrated for three pathways in the central metabolism of E. coli (gluconeogenesis, glycolysis-tricarboxylic acid (TCA) and pentose phosphate-TCA) that each require different regulation schemes. It is shown quantitatively that hexokinase, glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase and glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase, all branch points of pathways, play the largest roles in regulating central metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Active Learning for Language Modeling

Foreign disinformation campaigns undermine national security. Various supervised language modeling techniques in NLP can help to understand and dismantle these campaigns, but they rely heavily on large, labeled (often by humans) datasets. This work provides a solution to this problem in the form of an active learning (AL) framework, which is used to generate labeled datasets and leverage human input for detecting disinformation. The developed AL framework utilizes task adaptive pretraining to fully leverage the unlabeled data and boost the performance of the classifier used for labeling. A disinformation rhetoric metric was developed to measure the presence of common rhetorical techniques used in text that are meant to deceive, for both the classifier and human to use in the task of identifying disinformation. This metric was combined with an uncertainty criterion to create a hybrid acquisition method for AL, and this hybrid method was tested alongside other acquisition functions. A sophisticated and robust stopping strategy was developed to signal the AL process should terminate, saving human time from being wasted on iterations that would not significantly benefit classifier performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydro-mechanical coupled modeling of hydraulic fracturing using the mesh fragmentation technique

The inclusion of special interface elements between standard finite elements is becoming a common technique to model discontinuities in porous media using the finite element method (FEM). Recently, it was proved that high aspect ratio (HAR) elements can reproduce very satisfactorily the main features of behavior observed in a single hydraulically-induced fracture. In this paper, the mesh fragmentation technique (MFT) is proposed to extend the application of HAR elements to simulate more general problems involving the formation of hydraulic fractures in rocks by introducing this type of element in-between the standard FE of a typical mesh. The proposed framework makes use of standard FE techniques. Therefore, it is relatively easy to upgrade an existing FE program for continuous porous media to deal with evolving discontinuities. The proposed approach is verified and validated against available analytical and numerical solutions. The crack patterns predicted by the MFT are also compared with the ones observed in the laboratory. The formation of multiple fractures is also analyzed. In all cases, the proposed technique was able to properly capture the main features of rock behavior subjected to hydraulic fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - I : Theory

This paper discusses two cross section interpolation methods commonly found in popular nodal codes; the partial derivatives and multiple tables models. The motivation for choosing a model, and thus a case matrix structure, is a trade off between accuracy and computational cost. Due to decades of experience, there are default structures that are sufficient for current light water reactor analysis. However, this is not necessarily the case for advanced reactor designs. Therefore, it is advantageous to understand the sources of error in cross section interpolation models so that the quality of a case matrix may be improved. A mathematical framework for these models is presented in this work that provides a more rigorous connection between the nuclear engineering field's cross section interpolation methods and the broader mathematical field of function approximation. The two cross section models examined in this paper were found to utilize Lagrange interpolation and are a subset of Lagrange tensor products. Classical results of Lagrange polynomial error analysis were then applied to the partial derivative and multiple tables models to derive expressions for the total point-wise error. The analytical results classify the total error into two parts: the model form error and interpolation error. Finally, based on our observations, a better foundation for improving the quality of a case matrix is proposed. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

Wenig, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2014

Antarctic Analog for Dilational Bands on Europa

Europa's surface shows signs of extension, which is revealed as lithospheric dilation expressed along ridges, dilational bands and ridged bands. Ridges, the most common tectonic feature on Europa, comprise a central crack flanked by two raised banks a few hundred meters high on each side. Together these three classes may represent a continuum of formation. In Tufts' Dilational Model ridge formation is dominated by daily tidal cycling of a crack, which can be superimposed with regional secular dilation. The two sources of dilation can combine to form the various band morphologies observed. New GPS data along a rift on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica is a suitable Earth analog to test the framework of Tufts' Dilational Model. As predicted by Tufts' Dilational Model, tensile failures in the Ross Ice Shelf exhibit secular dilation, upon which a tidal signal can be seen. From this analog we conclude that Tufts' Dilational Model for Europan ridges and bands may be credible and that the secular dilation is most likely from a regional source and not tidally driven.

Tectonics↗

NASA NTRS2022

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable and Memory-Efficient Algorithms for Controlling Networked Epidemic Processes Using Multiplicative Weights Update Method

We study the problem of designing scalable algorithms to find effective intervention strategies for controlling stochastic epidemic processes on networks. This is a common problem arising in agent based models for epidemic spread. Previous approaches to this problem focus on either heuristics with no guarantees or approximation algorithms that scale only to networks corresponding to county-sized populations, typically, with less than a million nodes. In particular, the mathematical-programming based approaches need to solve the Linear Program (LP) relaxation of the problem using an LP solver, which restricts the scalability of this approach. In this work, we overcome this restriction by designing an algorithm that adapts the multiplicative weights update (MWU) framework, along with the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, to approximately solve the linear program (LP) relaxation for the problem. To scale this approach further, we provide a memory-efficient algorithm that enables scaling to large networks, corresponding to country-size populations, with over 300 million nodes and 30 billion edges. Furthermore, we show that this approach provides near-optimal solutions to the LP in practice.

Sambaturu, Prathyush↗

NASA NTRS1987

Commonality analysis as a knowledge acquisition problem

Commonality analysis is a systematic attempt to reduce costs in a large scale engineering project by discontinuing development of certain components during the design phase. Each discontinued component is replaced by another component that has sufficient functionality to be considered an appropriate substitute. The replacement strategy is driven by economic considerations. The System Commonality Analysis Tool (SCAT) is based on an oversimplified model of the problem and incorporates no knowledge acquisition component. In fact, the process of arriving at a compromise between functionality and economy is quite complex, with many opportunities for the application of expert knowledge. Such knowledge is of two types: general knowledge expressible as heuristics or mathematical laws potentially applicable to any set of components, and specific knowledge about the way in which elements of a given set of components interrelate. Examples of both types of knowledge are presented, and a framework is proposed for integrating the knowledge into a more general and useable tool.

Yeager, Dorian P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Influence of Disorder in the Synthesis, Characterization and Applications of a Modifiable Two-Dimensional Covalent Organic Framework

Two-dimensional covalent organic frameworks (2D-COFs) have been of increasing interest in the past decade due to their porous structures that ideally can be highly ordered. One of the most common routes to these polymers relies on Schiff-base chemistry, i.e., the condensation reaction between a carbonyl and an amine. In this report, we elaborate on the condensation of 3,6-dibromobenzene-1,2,4,5-tetraamine with hexaketocyclohexane (HKH) and the subsequent carbonylation of the resulting COF, along with the possibility that the condensation reaction on HKH can result in a trans configuration resulting in the formation of a disordered 2D-COF. This strategy enables modification of COFs via bromine substitution reactions to place functional groups within the pores of the materials. Ion-sieving measurements using membranes from this COF, reaction of small molecules with unreacted keto groups along with modeling studies indicate disorder in the COF polymerization process. We also present a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrates the influence of even small amounts of disorder upon both the 2D and 3D structure of the resulting COF.

carboxylated pores↗

DOE OSTI2023

One-Parameter Analytical Derivation in Modified Budyko Framework for Unsteady-State Streamflow Elasticity in Humid Catchments

The changes in climate and catchment properties have altered the hydrological processes significantly at different spatiotemporal scales around the world. In particular for finer time scales, changes in water storage, which has been commonly neglected for long-term temporal scales, may play an important role on hydrological processes. Nevertheless, few studies addressed this question in modifying the Budyko framework, with most of them remaining a steady-state assumption on catchment characteristics. Here, in this work, we derive new analytical formulas of unsteady-state streamflow elasticity in a modified Budyko framework, incorporating both storage change and one specific parameter for catchment properties. We study 78 humid catchments in the USA with simulation data of daily hydrological processes from a probability-distribution-based hydrological model (the modified HyMOD). As indicated by results, the annual storage change ratio is linearly correlated with the annual aridity index, and this relationship can be used to estimate elasticity coefficients with our formulas. The estimated elasticity coefficients perform well in simulating the annual streamflow with the power-law model. For different catchments, variability of the unsteady-state elasticity is higher than that of the steady-state elasticity. Unsteady-state streamflow coefficients show significant linear correlation with catchment properties, such as the average slope, average elevation, and catchment area. This study provides a new analytical approach to investigate the interannual stability of catchments with varying climate and catchment properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding EV Charging Pain Points Through Deep Learning Analysis

Current and potential electric vehicle (EV) owners express concerns about the charging infrastructure, mentioning non-functional chargers, prolonged charging times, inconvenient charger locations, long wait times, and high costs as major barriers. Addressing these issues often requires analyzing actual vehicle charging data, which is typically proprietary and inconsistent due to diverse standards and protocols. To understand and improve the EV charging experience, customer reviews are typically used to identify common customer pain points (CPPs). However, there is not a comprehensive method to map customer reviews to a standardized set of CPPs. In collaboration with the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium, this study bridges these gaps by proposing a Systematic Categorization and Analysis of Large-scale EV-charging Reviews (SCALER) framework. SCALER is an integrated, deep learning framework that segments, actively labels, analyzes, and classifies EV charging customer reviews into six CPP categories. To test its effectiveness, we used SCALER to analyze over 72,000 reviews from customers charging various EV models on different networks across the United States. SCALER achieves a classification accuracy of 92.5%, with an F1 score exceeding 85.7%. By demonstrating real-world applications of SCALER, we enhance the industry’s ability to understand and address CPPs to improve the EV charging experience.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗