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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Fall and Rise of the Global Climate Model

Abstract Global models are an essential tool for climate projections, but conventional coarse‐resolution atmospheric general circulation models suffer from errors both in their parameterized cloud physics and in their representation of climatically important circulation features. A notable recent study by Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) documents a global model capable of reproducing the regime‐based effect of aerosols on cloud liquid water path expected from observational evidence. This may represent a significant advance in cloud process fidelity in global models. Such models can be expected to give a better estimate of the effective radiative forcing of the climate. If this advance in cloud process representation can be matched by advances in the representation of circulation features such as monsoons, then such models may also be able to navigate the complex tangle between spatially heterogeneous aerosol–cloud interactions and regional circulation patterns. This tight link between aerosol and circulation results in anthropogenic perturbations of climate variables of societal importance, such as regional rainfall distributions. Upcoming global models with km‐scale resolution may improve the regional circulation and be able to take advantage of the Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) improvement in cloud physics. If so, an era of significantly improved regional climate projection capabilities may soon dawn. If not, then the improvement in cloud physics might spur intensified efforts on problems in model dynamics. Either way, based on the rapid changes in aerosol emissions in the near future, learning to make reliable projections based on biased models is a skill that will not go out of style.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model

Abstract. Hector is an open-source reduced-complexity climate–carbon cycle model that models critical Earth system processes on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3.2.0 (hereafter Hector V3), and document its new features, implementation of new science, and performance. Significant new features include permafrost thaw, a reworked energy balance submodel, and updated parameterizations throughout. Hector V3 results are in good general agreement with historical observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global mean surface temperature, and the future temperature projections from Hector V3 are consistent with more complex Earth system model output data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that Hector V3 is a flexible, performant, robust, and fully open-source simulator of global climate changes. We also note its limitations and discuss future areas for improvement and research with respect to the model's scientific, stakeholder, and educational priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields

Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected and downscaled climate information, making it important to quantify potential biases of this approach. Here, we use a multi-model ensemble of statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models, as well as the corresponding parent models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to drive a statistical panel model of U.S. maize yields that incorporates season-wide measures of temperature and precipitation. We analyze uncertainty in annual yield hindcasts, finding that the CMIP5 models considerably overestimate historical yield variability while the bias-corrected and downscaled versions underestimate the largest weather-induced yield declines. We also find large differences in projected yields and other decision-relevant metrics throughout this century, leaving stakeholders with modeling choices that require navigating trade-offs in resolution, historical accuracy, and projection confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm –1 at 8 nm and 1 cm –1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effect of nonlinear diffusive heat transport in a simple climate model

The effects of nonlinear diffusive heat transport in North's (1975) model is reexamined. By inserting the nonlinearity into the original energy balance equation rather than the spectrally transformed linear algebraic equations, and including one more mode in the spectral expansion, it is found that nonlinear diffusion does give a significantly different sensitivity for states near the current climate. For linear diffusion, an increase of 0.1% of the solar constant from the present value is sufficient to melt all the ice on the earth, whereas an increase of about five times as large is required for nonlinear diffusion. This difference in sensitivity shows the importance of dynamical modeling in simple climate models.

Lin, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Phillips, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Design for and efficient dynamic climate model with realistic geography

The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Suarez, M. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME): Ocean and Sea-Ice Processes

The primary goal of this project was to understand the role of the ocean and sea-ice components in the evolution of the climate in both a high-resolution fully-coupled 1850 preindustrial control and present day transient climate simulations run using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), formerly known as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). Two distinct approaches to the initialization of the present day transients were tested: in the first, an ensemble of three transients used atmospheric reanalysis forced 0.1-degree ocean/sea-ice states, while a fourth transient was branched off the preindustrial control. Biases from the control were inherited by its successor transient, in particular, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at high latitudes were too warm and too much northward meridional heat transport occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic meridional heat transport increased in the transients initialized from the ocean/sea-ice simulation over a 40-50 year period to largely resemble the transient branched off the control simulation. Excessive absorbed solar radiation (ASR) is considered to be responsible for the SST biases as well as the formation of mode waters in lighter density classes than in reality both in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre. These mode waters ventilate the thermocline waters to the north of their formation sites explaining the excessive Atlantic meridional heat transport and some of the warming in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean after multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Metamodeling of Droplet Activation for Global Climate Models

The nucleation of cloud droplets from the ambient aerosol is a critical physical process that must be resolved for global models to faithfully predict aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects on climate. To better represent droplet nucleation from a complex, multimodal, and multicomponent aerosol population within the context of a global model, a new metamodeling framework is applied to derive an efficient and accurate activation parameterization. The framework applies polynomial chaos expansion to a detailed parcel model in order to derive an emulator that maps thermodynamic and aerosol parameters to the supersaturation maximum achieved in an adiabatically ascending parcel and can be used to diagnose droplet number from a single lognormal aerosol mode. The emulator requires much less computational time to build, store, and evaluate than a high-dimensional lookup table. Compared to large sample sets from the detailed parcel model, the relative error in the predicted supersaturation maximum and activated droplet number computed with the best emulator is and (one standard deviation), respectively. On average, the emulators constructed here are as accurate and between 10 and 17 times faster than a leading physically based activation parameterization. Because the underlying parcel model being emulated resolves size-dependent droplet growth factors, the emulator captures kinetic limitations on activation. Furthermore, the results discussed in this work suggest that this metamodeling framework can be extended to accurately account for the detailed activation of a complex aerosol population in an arbitrary coupled global aerosol–climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Frei, Allan↗
NASA NTRS1991

Springtime soil moisture, natural climatic variability, and North American drought as simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model 1

Previous results concerning the role that summertime soil moisture reductions can play in amplifying or maintaining North American droughts are extended to include the role of springtime soil moisture reductions and the role that natural climatic variability, as expressed in soil moisture, can play. General circulation model (GCM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate Model have been made with initial desert-like soil moisture anomalies imposed on 1 May and on 1 March. The May simulation maintained the imposed anomaly throughout the summer, while in the March simulation the anomaly was ameliorated within one month. Thus, the timing of soil moisture reductions may be crucial. A 10-year model control integration with prescribed sea surface temperatures yielded 1 year with late spring and summer soil moisture values similar to those of the 1 May anomaly simulation. This suggests that occasional widespread North American droughts may be an inherent feature of at least the GCM employed for this study. The results also demonstrate the important role played by moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico in modulating or ameliorating drought conditions for much of the south-central United States, a topic that requires considerable further investigation.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigating Mars South Residual CO2 Cap with a Global Climate Model

The CO2 cycle is one of the three controlling climate cycles on Mars. One aspect of the CO2 cycle that is not yet fully understood is the existence of a residual CO2 ice cap that is offset from the south pole. Previous investigations suggest that the atmosphere may control the placement of the south residual cap (e.g., Colaprete et al., 2005). These investigations show that topographically forced stationary eddies in the south during southern hemisphere winter produce colder atmospheric temperatures and increased CO2 snowfall over the hemisphere where the residual cap resides. Since precipitated CO2 ice produces higher surface albedos than directly deposited CO2 ice, it is plausible that CO2 snowfall resulting from the zonally asymmetric atmospheric circulation produces surface ice albedos high enough to maintain a residual cap only in one hemisphere. The goal of the current work is to further evaluate Colaprete et al.'s hypothesis by investigating model-predicted seasonally varying snowfall patterns in the southern polar region and the atmospheric circulation components that control them.

CO2 cycle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Update and Status of the Mars Climate Modeling Center at NASA Ames Research Center

NASA Ames Research Center has a long-established history in the study and numerical modeling of Mars’ atmosphere and climate. Such studies began with the late Jim Pollack and have continued under the leaderships of Bob Haberle, Jeff Hollingsworth, and now Melinda Kahre. Our group has grown to more than 10 members, including civil servants, research scientists, postdocs, and students. While we still prioritize science and the model development that supports it, we have recently enhanced efforts to make our codes and output publicly available and boost community engagement through the hosting of modeling tutorials, etc. Here our goal is to present the status of the Ames Mars GCM, our ongoing science projects, the tools we have recently made publicly available, and our plans for releases and continued community engagement.

M. A. Kahre↗
NASA NTRS1980

Latitude-dependent sensitivity to stationary perturbations in simple climate models

The steady-state zonally averaged climate is perturbed by adding a latitude-dependent heat source to an energy balance equation of the simplified Budyko-Sellers type. The latitude of the ice edge, which is attached to an isotherm, becomes dependent on the strength of the perturbation. This dependence is given in terms of the well-known iceline-solar constant relation, and the latitude dependence of the perturbed temperature field is then uniquely determined. The exact analytical solution is linearized and expressed in terms of a superposition of line sources at various latitudes. The main features are: (1) The total temperature response is a sum of the direct effect of the perturbation and an indirect ice-albedo effect proportional to the solar ice-edge sensitivity; and (2) the indirect feedback effect produces an enhanced response in polar latitudes.

Salmun, H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Stevenson, Samantha↗
DOE OSTI2020

Response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

We compare the response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time–slice simulations for present–day, doubled, and quadrupled CO 2 climates. No consistency was found among the models for the QBO period response, with the period decreasing by 8 months in some models and lengthening by up to 13 months in others in the doubled CO 2 simulations. In the quadrupled CO 2 simulations, a reduction in QBO period of 14 months was found in some models, whereas in several others the tropical oscillation no longer resembled the present–day QBO, although it could still be identified in the deseasonalized zonal mean zonal wind timeseries. In contrast, all the models projected a decrease in the QBO amplitude in a warmer climate with the largest relative decrease near 60 hPa. In simulations with doubled and quadrupled CO 2 , the multi–model mean QBO amplitudes decreased by 36 and 51%, respectively. Across the models the differences in the QBO period response were most strongly related to how the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity responded to the increases in CO 2 amounts. Likewise it was found that the robust decrease in QBO amplitudes was correlated across the models to changes in vertical residual velocity, parametrized gravity wave momentum fluxes, and to some degree the resolved upward wave flux. Here, we argue that uncertainty in the representation of the parameterized gravity waves is the most likely cause of the spread among the eleven models in the QBO's response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗