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Results for “Calculational Margin”

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NASA NTRS2003

Investigation of the Flow Physics Driving Stall-Side Flutter in Advanced Forward Swept Fan Designs

Flutter-free operation of advanced transonic fan designs continues to be a challenging task for the designers of aircraft engines. In order to meet the demands of increased performance and lighter weight, these modern fan designs usually feature low-aspect ratio shroudless rotor blade designs that make the task of achieving adequate flutter margin even more challenging for the aeroelastician. This is especially true for advanced forward swept designs that encompass an entirely new design space compared to previous experience. Fortunately, advances in unsteady computational fluid dynamic (CFD) techniques over the past decade now provide an analysis capability that can be used to quantitatively assess the aeroelastic characteristics of these next generation fans during the design cycle. For aeroelastic applications, Mississippi State University and NASA Glenn Research Center have developed the CFD code TURBO-AE. This code is a time-accurate three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes unsteady flow solver developed for axial-flow turbomachinery that can model multiple blade rows undergoing harmonic oscillations with arbitrary interblade phase angles, i.e., nodal diameter patterns. Details of the code can be found in Chen et al. (1993, 1994), Bakhle et al. (1997, 1998), and Srivastava et al. (1999). To assess aeroelastic stability, the work-per-cycle from TURBO-AE is converted to the critical damping ratio since this value is more physically meaningful, with both the unsteady normal pressure and viscous shear forces included in the work-per-cycle calculation. If the total damping (aerodynamic plus mechanical) is negative, then the blade is unstable since it extracts energy from the flow field over the vibration cycle. TURBO-AE is an integral part of an aeroelastic design system being developed at Honeywell Engines, Systems & Services for flutter and forced response predictions, with test cases from development rig and engine tests being used to validate its predictive capability. A recent experimental program (Sanders et al., 2002) was aimed at providing the necessary unsteady aerodynamic and vibratory response data needed to validate TURBO-AE for fan flutter predictions. A comparison of numerical TURBO-AE simulations with the benchmark flutter data is given in Sanders et al. (2003), with the data used to guide the validation of the code and define best practices for performing accurate unsteady simulations. The agreement between the analyses and the predictions was quite remarkable, demonstrating the ability of the analysis to accurately model the unsteady flow processes driving stall-side flutter.

Sanders, Albert J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2009

Algorithm for Detecting a Bright Spot in an Image

An algorithm processes the pixel intensities of a digitized image to detect and locate a circular bright spot, the approximate size of which is known in advance. The algorithm is used to find images of the Sun in cameras aboard the Mars Exploration Rovers. (The images are used in estimating orientations of the Rovers relative to the direction to the Sun.) The algorithm can also be adapted to tracking of circular shaped bright targets in other diverse applications. The first step in the algorithm is to calculate a dark-current ramp a correction necessitated by the scheme that governs the readout of pixel charges in the charge-coupled-device camera in the original Mars Exploration Rover application. In this scheme, the fraction of each frame period during which dark current is accumulated in a given pixel (and, hence, the dark-current contribution to the pixel image-intensity reading) is proportional to the pixel row number. For the purpose of the algorithm, the dark-current contribution to the intensity reading from each pixel is assumed to equal the average of intensity readings from all pixels in the same row, and the factor of proportionality is estimated on the basis of this assumption. Then the product of the row number and the factor of proportionality is subtracted from the reading from each pixel to obtain a dark-current-corrected intensity reading. The next step in the algorithm is to determine the best location, within the overall image, for a window of N N pixels (where N is an odd number) large enough to contain the bright spot of interest plus a small margin. (In the original application, the overall image contains 1,024 by 1,024 pixels, the image of the Sun is about 22 pixels in diameter, and N is chosen to be 29.)

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Optimization of a GO2/GH2 Impinging Injector Element

An injector optimization methodology, method i, is used to investigate optimal design points for a gaseous oxygen/gaseous hydrogen (GO2/GH2) impinging injector element. The unlike impinging element, a fuel-oxidizer- fuel (F-O-F) triplet, is optimized in terms of design variables such as fuel pressure drop, (Delta)P(sub f), oxidizer pressure drop, (Delta)P(sub o), combustor length, L(sub comb), and impingement half-angle, alpha, for a given mixture ratio and chamber pressure. Dependent variables such as energy release efficiency, ERE, wall heat flux, Q(sub w), injector heat flux, Q(sub inj), relative combustor weight, W(sub rel), and relative injector cost, C(sub rel), are calculated and then correlated with the design variables. An empirical design methodology is used to generate these responses for 163 combinations of input variables. Method i is then used to generate response surfaces for each dependent variable. Desirability functions based on dependent variable constraints are created and used to facilitate development of composite response surfaces representing some, or all, of the five dependent variables in terms of the input variables. Three examples illustrating the utility and flexibility of method i are discussed in detail. First, joint response surfaces are constructed by sequentially adding dependent variables. Optimum designs are identified after addition of each variable and the effect each variable has on the design is shown. This stepwise demonstration also highlights the importance of including variables such as weight and cost early in the design process. Secondly, using the composite response surface which includes all five dependent variables, unequal weights are assigned to emphasize certain variables relative to others. Here, method i is used to enable objective trade studies on design issues such as component life and thrust to weight ratio. Finally, specific variable weights are further increased to illustrate the high marginal cost of realizing the last increment of injector performance and thruster weight.

Tucker, P. Kevin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars 2020 Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments and Design Margins

The Mars 2020 aeroshell's thermal protection system was nearly identical to the Mars Science Laboratory system that successfully completed its mission for the Curiosity rover's landing in 2012. It was predicted that, like Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 heatshield would experience boundary layer transition and that the thermal protection system would provide sufficient material thickness margins against the aerothermal environments, even after adding radiative heating that was not included for Mars Science Laboratory. The Mars 2020 flight instrumentation suite included heatshield sensors similar to Mars Science Laboratory and new backshell measurements. A full set of surface pressure and in-depth temperature data were collected during atmospheric entry. This paper provides an initial analysis of the flight data and focuses on the reconstructed total surface heat flux inferred from the measured temperatures. Turbulent boundary layer conditions again were observed on the Mars 2020 heatshield, and the temperatures at all eleven heatshield and six backshell thermocouple in-depth sensor locations were well within system capabilities due to favorable entry conditions and conservative uncertainties. New computational fluid dynamics results on the reconstructed entry trajectory are compared to the measured surface pressures and reconstructed total heat fluxes. The predicted heatshield surface pressures at six locations match the data qualitatively and quantitatively well, as expected. Smooth-wall laminar heating predictions prior to boundary layer transition fall above the reconstructed heating on the heatshield. After the observed boundary layer transition time, total heat flux based on algebraic turbulence model calculations generally match the heat flux trends relative to one another. The convective heat flux was predicted to constitute the majority of the total heating. On the backshell, smooth-wall laminar total heat flux predictions generally exceed the reconstructed total heating at six locations. At each of these locations, it is estimated that radiative heating provided almost all of the total heating. The Mars 2020 as-flown aerothermal environments were well below the design levels for all measurement locations due to conservative design assumptions and a stressing design trajectory.

Mars 2020↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars 2020 Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments and Design Margins

Mars 2020↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Use of Raman Spectroscopy and Delta Volume Growth from Void Collapse to Assess Overwrap Stress Gradients Compromising the Reliability of Large Kevlar/Epoxy COPVs

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are frequently used for storing pressurized gases aboard spacecraft and aircraft when weight saving is desirable compared to all-metal versions. Failure mechanisms in fibrous COPVs and variability in lifetime can be very different from their metallic counterparts; in the former, catastrophic stress-rupture can occur with virtually no warning, whereas in latter, a leak before burst design philosophy can be implemented. Qualification and certification typically requires only one burst test on a production sample (possibly after several pressure cycles) and the vessel need only meet a design burst strength (the maximum operating pressure divided by a knockdown factor). Typically there is no requirement to assess variability in burst strength or lifetime, much less determine production and materials processing parameters important to control of such variability. Characterizing such variability and its source is crucial to models for calculating required reliability over a given lifetime (e.g. R = 0.9999 for 15 years). In this paper we present a case study of how lack of control of certain process parameters in COPV manufacturing can result in variations among vessels and between production runs that can greatly increase uncertainty and reduce reliability. The vessels considered are 40-inch ( NASA Glenn Research center, Cleveland, OH, 44135 29,500 in3 ) spherical COPVs with a 0.74 in. thick Kevlar49/epoxy overwrap and with a titanium liner of which 34 were originally produced. Two burst tests were eventually performed that unexpectedly differed by almost 5%, and were 10% lower than anticipated from burst tests on 26-inch sister vessels similar in every detail. A major observation from measurements made during proof testing (autofrettage) of the 40-inch vessels was that permanent volume growth from liner yielding varied by a factor of more than two (150 in3 to 360 in3 ), which suggests large differences in the residual stress gradient through their overwraps. This resulted in large uncertainty in true fiber stress ratio (fiber stress at operating pressure divided by fiber stress at burst) which governs lifetime. The vessels were originally designed with tight safety margins, so it became crucial to develop a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state of each vessel, and to identify those vessels at highest risk of having poor reliability. This paper describes a Raman Spectroscopy technique for measuring certain patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface (where all but one wrap is exposed at certain locations) that are shown to directly correlate to increased fiber stress ratios and reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Best-Fit Conic Approximation of Spacecraft Trajectory

A computer program calculates a best conic fit of a given spacecraft trajectory. Spacecraft trajectories are often propagated as conics onboard. The conic-section parameters as a result of the best-conic-fit are uplinked to computers aboard the spacecraft for use in updating predictions of the spacecraft trajectory for operational purposes. In the initial application for which this program was written, there is a requirement to fit a single conic section (necessitated by onboard memory constraints) accurate within 200 microradians to a sequence of positions measured over a 4.7-hour interval. The present program supplants a prior one that could not cover the interval with fewer than four successive conic sections. The present program is based on formulating the best-fit conic problem as a parameter-optimization problem and solving the problem numerically, on the ground, by use of a modified steepest-descent algorithm. For the purpose of this algorithm, optimization is defined as minimization of the maximum directional propagation error across the fit interval. In the specific initial application, the program generates a single 4.7-hour conic, the directional propagation of which is accurate to within 34 microradians easily exceeding the mission constraints by a wide margin.

Singh, Gurkipal↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Rate Constant for NH 2 +HO 2 and Third-Body Collision Efficiencies for NH 2 +H(+M) and NH 2 +NH 2 (+M)

In low-temperature flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 mixtures, the NH 2 consumption rate and the product distribution is controlled by the reactions NH 2 + HO 2 → products (R1), NH 2 + H (+M) → NH 3 (+M) (R2), and NH 2 + NH 2 (+M) → N 2 H 4 (+M) (R3). In the present work, published flash photolysis experiments by, among others, Cheskis and co-workers, are re-interpreted using recent direct measurements of NH 2 + H (+N 2 ) and NH 2 + NH 2 (+N 2 ) from Altinay and Macdonald. To facilitate analysis of the FP data, relative third-body collision efficiencies compared to N 2 for R2 and R3 were calculated for O 2 and NH 3 as well as for other selected molecules. We report results were in good agreement with the limited experimental data. Based on reported NH 2 decay rates in flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 , a rate constant for NH 2 + HO 2 → NH 3 + O 2 (R1a) of $k_{1\text{a}}$ = 1.5(±0.5) × 10 14 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K was derived. This value is higher than earlier determinations based on the FP results but in good agreement with recent theoretical work. Kinetic modeling of reported N 2 O yields indicates that NH 2 + HO 2 → H 2 NO + O (R1c) is competing with R1a, but perturbation experiments with addition of CH4 indicate that it is not a dominating channel. Measured HNO profiles indicate that this component is formed directly by NH 2 + HO 2 → HNO + H 2 O (R1b), but theoretical work indicates that R1b is only a minor channel. Based on this analysis, we estimate $k_{1\text{c}}$ = 2.5 × 10 13 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 and $k_{1\text{b}}$ = 2.5 × 10 12 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K, with significant uncertainty margins.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of U-net-based Image Segmentation Model to Digital Mammography

Detecting suspicious lesions in medical imaging is the important first step in computer-aided detection (CAD) systems. However, detecting abnormalities in breast tissue is difficult due to the lesion's varying size, shape, margin, and contrast with the background tissue. We focused on mass segmentation, a method that provides notable morphological features by outlining contours of masses. Accurate segmentation is crucial for correct diagnosis. Recent advancements in deep learning have improved object detection and segmentation, and these techniques are also being applied to medical imaging studies. We focused on U-net, which is a recently developed mass segmentation algorithm based on a fully convolutional network. The U-net architecture consists of (1) a contracting path to increase the resolution of the output and (2) a symmetric expanding path to better locate the region of interest. The performance of a U-net model was tested with 63 digital mammograms from INbreast, a publicly available database. We trained the model with images resized to 40x40 pixels and conducted 10-fold cross-validation to prevent overfitting. The model's performance with respect to breast density and the lesion's BI-RADS rating was also investigated. Dice coefficients (DC) were used as a performance measure to compare the predicted segmentation of the model with the ground truth. Logistic regression and an analysis of variance were performed to determine the significance of the DCs with regards to breast density and lesion behavior and to calculate the 95% confidence interval. The average DC was 0.80. The difference between DCs for BI-RADS 2 and 4c and for BI-RADS 2 and 5 were significant, suggesting that the model has more difficulty in segmenting benign lesions.

Cho, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS1995

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of the tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiements were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiements. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. With few exceptions the error estimated generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter ouput and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimaes. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.

Miller, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of total emitted solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF in estimating photosynthesis

We report many studies have shown that solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) has a good potential to predict gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation. What we measured by remote sensing or near-surface platforms is top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF (SIF toc ), which is not necessarily equal or proportional to total emitted SIF (SIF tot ) from the entire canopy due to the (re)absorption and scattering effects. However, photosynthesis, the process that plants use to fix carbon from the atmosphere, occurs at the entire vertical canopy. Here, by using the recollision theory, we calculated SIF tot at 760 nm from the measured SIF toc , hyperspectral reflectance (R), canopy interception (i) and leaf albedo (ω l ). Among them, both SIF toc and R can be obtained from concurrent TOC spectral measurements; i and ω l in the near-infrared region can be estimated from the open access datasets with a good accuracy. Our result confirms that the measured SIF toc only accounts for a small fraction of SIF tot : the above-the-canopy sensor can only “see” on average 22.9% of SIF tot at Harvard Forest. SIF tot has the following advantages over SIF toc in estimating GPP: (1) SIF tot improves the diurnal estimate of canopy GPP, especially capable to capture the midday depression of photosynthesis which may cause the large discrepancies between SIF toc and GPP on a diurnal basis, (2) SIF tot produces a stronger correlation with GPP from plants with complex canopy structure or under sky conditions with more diffuse irradiance, and (3) the SIF tot -GPP relationship shows a stronger resilience to environmental stresses. The fluorescence escape ratio (f esc ), the ratio between SIF toc multiplied by π and SIF tot , is mostly determined by the sun-canopy-sensor geometry and leaf inclination distribution. The effect of LAI and the leaf chlorophyll concentration on f esc is marginal at the 760 nm wavelength. Our results suggest that converting SIF toc into SIF tot provides a better tool to understand and estimate GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war↗

NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018-2020 Period Phase 2

Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company (LM), working in conjunction with General Electric Global Research (GE GR) and Stanford University, executed a 19 month program responsive to the NASA sponsored "N+2 Supersonic Validation: Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018-2020 Period" contract. The key technical objective of this effort was to validate integrated airframe and propulsion technologies and design methodologies necessary to realize a supersonic vehicle capable of meeting the N+2 environmental and performance goals. The N+2 program is aligned with NASA's Supersonic Project and is focused on providing system level solutions capable of overcoming the efficiency, environmental, and performance barriers to practical supersonic flight. The N+2 environmental and performance goals are outlined in the technical paper, AIAA-2014-2138 (Ref. 1) along with the validated N+2 Phase 2 results. Our Phase 2 efforts built upon our Phase 1 studies (Ref. 2) and successfully demonstrated the ability to design and test realistic configurations capable of shaped sonic booms over the width of the sonic boom carpet. Developing a shaped boom configuration capable of meeting the N+2 shaped boom targets is a key goal for the N+2 program. During the LM Phase 1 effort, LM successfully designed and tested a shaped boom trijet configuration (1021) capable of achieving 85 PLdB under track (forward and aft shock) and up to 28 deg off-track at Mach 1.6. In Phase 2 we developed a refined configuration (1044-2) that extended the under 85 PLdB sonic boom level over the entire carpet of 52 deg off-track at a cruise Mach number of 1.7. Further, the loudness level of the configuration throughout operational conditions calculates to an average of 79 PLdB. These calculations rely on propagation employing Burger's (sBOOM) rounding methodology, and there are indications that the configuration average loudness would actually be 75 PLdB. We also added significant fidelity to the design of the configuration in this phase by performing a low speed wind tunnel test at our LTWT facility in Palmdale, by more complete modelling of propulsion effects in our sonic boom analysis, and by refining our configuration packaging and performance assessments. Working with General Electric, LM performed an assessment of the impact of inlet and nozzle effects on the sonic boom signature of the LM N+2 configurations. Our results indicate that inlet/exhaust streamtube boundary conditions are adequate for conceptual design studies, but realistic propulsion modeling at similar stream-tube conditions does have a small but measurable impact on the sonic boom signature. Previous supersonic transport studies have identified aeroelastic effects as one of the major challenges associated with the long, slender vehicles particularly common with shaped boom aircraft (Ref. 3). Under the Phase 2 effort, we have developed a detailed structural analysis model to evaluate the impact of flexibility and structural considerations on the feasibility of future quiet supersonic transports. We looked in particular at dynamic structural modes and flutter as a failure that must be avoided. We found that for our N+2 design in particular, adequate flutter margin existed. Our flutter margin is large enough to cover uncertainties like large increases in engine weight and the margin is relatively easy to increase with additional stiffening mass. The lack of major aeroelastic problems probably derives somewhat from an early design bias. While shaped boom aircraft require long length, they are not required to be thin. We intentionally developed our structural depths to avoid major flexibility problems. So at the end of Phase 2, we have validated that aeroelastic problems are not necessarily endemic to shaped boom designs. Experimental validation of sonic boom design and analysis techniques was the primary objective of the N+2 Supersonic Validations contract; and in this Phase, LM participated in four high speed wind tunnel tests. The first so-called Parametric Test in the Ames 9x7 tunnel did an exhaustive look at variation effects of the parameters: humidity, total pressure, sample time, spatial averaging distance and number of measurement locations, and more. From the results we learned to obtain data faster and more accurately, and made test condition tolerances easy to meet (eliminating earlier 60 percent wasted time when condition tolerances could not be held). The next two tests used different tunnels. The Ames 11 ft tunnel was used to test lower Mach numbers of 1.2 and 1.4. There were several difficulties using this tunnel for the first time for sonic boom including having to shift the measurement Mach numbers to 1.15 and 1.3 to avoid flow problems. It is believed that the 11 ft could be used successfully to measure sonic boom but there are likely to be a number of test condition restrictions. The Glenn 8x6 ft tunnel was used next and the tunnel has a number of desirable features for sonic boom measurement. While the Ames 9x7 can only test Mach 1.55 to 2.55 and the 11 ft can only test Mach 1.3 and lower, the Glenn 8x6 can test continuously from Mach 0.3 to 2.0. Unfortunately test measurement accuracy was compromised by a reference pressure drift. Post-test analysis revealed that the drift occurred when Mach number drifted slightly. Test measurements indicated that if Mach number drift is eliminated, results from the 8x6 would be more accurate, especially at longer distances, than results from the 9x7. The fourth test in the 9x7, called LM4, used everything we learned to comprehensively and accurately measure our new 1044-02 configuration with a full-carpet shaped signature design. Productivity was 8 times greater than our Phase 1 LM3 test. Measurement accuracy and repeatability was excellent out to 42 in. However, measurements at greater distances require the rail in the aft position and become substantially less accurate. Further signature processing or measurement improvements are needed for beyond near-field signature validation.

Morgenstern, John↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flow Physics at a Large Rotor Tip Gap in a Multi-Stage Axial Compressor

The flow physics in a large rotor tip gap in a 1.5-stage axial compressor is investigated in the current study. The flow structure in the rotor tip region is complex with several dominant vortical structures of opposite rotation, resulting in inhomogeneous and highly anisotropic turbulence. Earlier measurements show that eddy viscosity is negative over large parts of the tip region and eddy viscosity varies among stress/strain components. The present study aims to understand how the complex nature of rotor tip leakage flow affects compressor performance when the tip gap size is greater than 4–5% of the rotor span, which is typical of advanced small core engines. Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques are applied to study flow physics in a large rotor tip gap (5.5% of rotor span) in a 1.5-stage axial compressor. Calculated flow fields from the two different approaches are compared with available measurements and examined in detail. LES calculates the pressure rise in the present compressor fairly well, while URANS with a standard two-equation turbulence closure underpredicts the pressure rise by 15-20% of the measured values. The current study shows that URANS with the current turbulence closure produces much higher all-positive eddy viscosity in the tip-gap region compared to measurements and LES. The distribution of eddy viscosity in the URANS simulation is also wrong. Consequently, the flow in the tip region is highly damped with significantly larger blockage generation, which results in the tip leakage vortex (TLV) staying closer to the blade suction side compared to the measurement. When the TLV stays closer to the blade, both flow turning and the pressure rise across the compressor are reduced compared to the measurements. It appears that this effect is amplified by a large rotor tip gap.

tip gap↗