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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of silicate coordination in architected amorphous and crystalline magnesium silicates during carbon mineralization

Advancing durable solutions for carbon storage and removal at the gigaton scale to produce solid carbonates via carbon mineralization requires harnessing earth abundant magnesium silicate resources. Calibrated insights linking the structural and morphological features of earth abundant amorphous and crystalline magnesium silicate phases to their reactivity are essential for scalable deployment but remain underdeveloped. To resolve the influence of silica coordination and mass transfer on carbon mineralization behavior, magnesium silicates bearing amorphous and crystalline phases (AC Mg-silicate) are synthesized. The structural and morphological transitions starting from colloidal precursors to their final synthesized form on heating are delineated using operando ultra small/small/wide angle X-ray scattering (USAXS/SAXS/WAXS) measurements. The evolution of the silicate phases on carbon mineralization of AC Mg-silicate is contrasted with that of highly crystalline Mg-silicate (HC Mg-silicate) when reacted at 200 °C and a CO 2 partial pressure of 20 atm in water and 1 M NaHCO 3 solution in stirred and unstirred environments. These experimental conditions are analogous to those of the water–gas-shift reaction for sustainable recovery of H 2 with inherent carbon mineralization. Enhancement in the extent of carbon mineralization by 13.3–19.5% noted in the presence of NaHCO 3 compared to water in AC and HC Mg-silicate with and without stirring, is attributed to the buffering effect which aids simultaneous silicate dissolution and carbon mineralization. Enhanced extents of carbon mineralization in the presence of NaHCO 3 correspond to the formation of MgSiO 3 and SiO 2 phases from the starting Mg 2 SiO 4 precursors in AC and HC Mg-silicate. Unlocking these silicate transformations during carbon mineralization by harnessing architected Mg-silicate precursors reveals the feasibility of integrating these chemical pathways with sustainable H 2 conversion pathways with inherent carbon mineralization.

Gao, Xun [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACES-GNN: can graph neural network learn to explain activity cliffs?

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized molecular property prediction by leveraging graph-based representations, yet their opaque decision-making processes hinder broader adoption in drug discovery. This study introduces the Activity-Cliff-Explanation-Supervised GNN (ACES-GNN) framework, designed to simultaneously improve predictive accuracy and interpretability by integrating explanation supervision for activity cliffs (ACs) into GNN training. ACs, defined by structurally similar molecules with significant potency differences, pose challenges for traditional models due to their reliance on shared structural features. By aligning model attributions with chemist-friendly interpretations, the ACES-GNN framework bridges the gap between prediction and explanation. Validated across 30 pharmacological targets, ACES-GNN consistently enhances both predictive accuracy and attribution quality for ACs compared to unsupervised GNNs. Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between improved predictions and accurate explanations, offering a robust and adaptable framework to better understand and interpret ACs. This work underscores the potential of explanation-guided learning to advance interpretable artificial intelligence in molecular modeling and drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a high current density, high temperature superconducting cable for pulsed magnets

Abstract A low AC loss Rare Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) cable, based on the VIPER cable technology has been developed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems for use in high field, REBCO based tokamaks. The new cable is composed of partitioned and transposed copper ‘petals’ shaped to fit together in a circular pattern with each petal containing a REBCO tape stack and insulated from each other to reduce AC losses. A stainless steel jacket adds mechanical robustness—also serving as a vessel for solder impregnation—while a tube runs through the middle for cooling purposes. Additionally, fiber optic sensors are placed under the tape stacks for quench detection. To qualify this design, a series of experiments were conducted as part of the SPARC tokamak Central Solenoid Model Coil program—to retire the risks associated with full scale, fast ramping, high flux HTS Central Solenoid (CS) and Poloidal Field (PF) coils for tokamak fusion power plants and net energy demonstrators. These risk study and risk reduction experiments include (1) AC loss measurement and model validation in the range of ~5 T/s, (2) an IxB electromagnetic loading of over 850 kN/m at the cable level and up to 300 kN/m at the stack level, (3) a transverse compression resilience of over 350 MPa, (4) manufacturability at tokamak relevant speeds and scales, (5) cable to cable joint performance, (6) fiber optic based quench detection speed, accuracy, and feasibility, and (7) overall winding pack integration and magnet assembly. The result is a cable technology, now referred to as PIT VIPER, with AC losses that measure fifteen times lower (at ~5 T/s) than its predecessor technology; a 2% or lower degradation of critical current (Ic) at high IxB electromagnetic loads; no detectable Ic degradation up to 570 MPa of transverse compression on the cable unit cell; end to end magnet manufacturing, consistently producing Ic values within 7% of the model prediction; cable to cable joint resistances at 20 K on the order of ~15 nΩ; and fast, functional quench detection capabilities that do not involve voltage taps. This cable technology will be tested comprehensively in a Central Solenoid Model Coil to prove its readiness for compact, high field tokamak operation.

Sanabria, Charlie (ORCID:0000000150175309)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inequality in the availability of residential air conditioning across 115 US metropolitan areas

Continued climate change is increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of populations’ high temperature exposures. Indoor cooling is a key adaptation, especially in urban areas, where heat extremes are intensified—the urban heat island effect (UHI)—making residential air conditioning (AC) availability critical to protecting human health. In the United States, the differences in residential AC prevalence from one metropolitan area to another is well understood, but its intra-urban variation is poorly characterized, obscuring neighborhood-scale variability in populations’ heat vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We address this gap by constructing empirically derived probabilities of residential AC for 45,995 census tracts across 115 metropolitan areas. Within cities, AC is unequally distributed, with census tracts in the urban “core” exhibiting systematically lower prevalence than their suburban counterparts. Moreover, this disparity correlates strongly with multiple indicators of social vulnerability and summer daytime surface UHI intensity, highlighting the challenges that vulnerable urban populations face in adapting to climate-change driven heat stress amplification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods to Track Effective Doses from Airborne Radioactive Emissions for Compliance with 40 CFR 61, SUBPART H

US Department of Energy national laboratories can play an integral role in not only the advancement of science but also in the treatment of various medical conditions through research and development activities conducted at radioisotope production facilities. Here, a project has been underway at Oak Ridge National Laboratory since 2016 whose mission is to produce and supply the radioisotope 227 Ac, which is used in a radiopharmaceutical developed to treat certain types of prostate cancer and bone metastases. Production activities result in the environmental release of airborne radioactive emissions, which are governed by Clean Air Act regulations described in 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H. Stack 3039, the source that emits radioactive effluents from 227 Ac production, is subject to additional requirements outlined in American National Standards Institute (ANSI) N13.1-1969 due to its grandfathered status. Radioactive emissions are limited to levels below those that would cause annual compliance dose standards for members of the public to be exceeded and stack 3039 to lose its grandfathered status. To allow for maximum production of 227 Ac without exceeding relevant dose limits, monthly tracking of project emissions and resulting CAP88-PC modeled effective doses to a maximally exposed individual have been implemented. Four years of tracking data were compiled and analyzed to identify additional methods that could be used to estimate project doses more frequently, potentially further optimizing 227 Ac production while maintaining compliance with applicable regulations.

atmospheric emissions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of the 230 Th( p ,2n)Pa229 and 230 Th( p ,3n)Pa228 reaction cross sections from 14.1 to 16.9 MeV

Actinium-225 is of interest for medical isotope production and there is on-going research into methods of producing Ac 225 , either directly or via the decay of its parent isotopes ( Th 229 , Pa 229 , and Ra 225 ). One method that has been suggested is the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) Pa 229 reaction. However, there is no available cross-section data for this reaction in the literature. Purpose: Measure the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) and Th 230 ( p , 3 n ) reaction cross sections in the energy range where the ( p , 2 n ) reaction is predicted to peak to determine the feasibility of Ac 225 production via the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) reaction. Methods: Targets naturally enriched in Th 230 were irradiated at the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory with energies ranging from 14.1 to 16.9 MeV. Furthermore, chemical processing was used to separate the protactinium activation products, followed by γ -ray spectroscopy to measure the activities of Pa 228 , 229 , 230 , 232 produced in the irradiation. Results: We find that excitation functions are reported for the first time in the literature for the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) and Th 230 ( p , 3 n ) reactions in this energy range. The peak measured value of the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) reaction was found to be 182 ± 12 mb at 14.4 ± 0.1 MeV. The Th 232 ( p , n ) Pa 232 reaction was used to verify the experimental conditions, the measured values are reported and are comparable to the existing literature values. From the γ -ray spectrometry data, the half-life of Pa 229 was measured as 1.5 ± 0.1 days, which is within the error of the half-life reported in the evaluated nuclear data as well as in the recent measurements, and the half-life of Pa 228 was measured as 19.5 ± 0.4 hours. Conclusions: Overall, the Th 230 ( p , 2 n ) Pa 229 reaction could reasonably be used for Ac 225 isotope production, although significant amounts of relatively isotopically pure Th 230 would be needed for significant production because the low alpha-decay branching ratio of Pa 229 and long half-life of Th 229 inhibit the in-growth of significant amounts of Ac 225 .

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel State-Constrained Primary Control for Grid-Forming Inverters

The problem of operating an AC microgrid with purely inverter-based generating units is considered, and a novel vector control for the constrained grid-forming (GFM) inverters is proposed. The design aims to achieve the primary control objectives of the GFM inverters: voltage establishment, synchronization, and voltage/frequency regulation. It is novel that the proposed control also ensures all operational variables constrained both real-time and for all the time except for low voltage during the period of grid forming. The constraints include frequency, output AC voltage, input DC power, and active/reactive power injections to the grid. Here, in this paper, outcomes of a detailed simulation are presented to demonstrated that the above design objectives are met and that the overall performance is superior due to its unique ability of simultaneously controlling the whole vectors of the inverter state and output.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harmonics and Stability Evaluation of Converter-Interfaced Combined Heat and Power Units

Grid integration of medium-sized combined heat and power (CHP) units is challenging due to strict grid codes and conventional generators lack of control flexibility to meet these grid codes. Adding a two-stage ac-dc-ac power electronics interface between the generator and the utility grid will accelerate the interconnection process of CHP units. For the dc-ac stage, a voltage source converter (VSC) has been widely used as a grid-tied inverter because of its fast control and low total harmonics distortion (THD). In this paper, several topologies of generator-side rectifiers for ac-dc power conversion are explored and analyzed. The harmonics impact of various rectifiers on the CHP generator are evaluated. The overall cost of the electrical system, when using various types of rectifiers, is assessed and the VSC back-to-back converter interface configuration is found to be optimal. The overall system stability is also examined using small-signal impedance analysis to assess potential instability issues at the system level.

CHP, Harmonics, Generator Rectifier Unit, DC Imped↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control Design of Series-connected PV-powered Grid-forming Converters via Singular Perturbation

We report modular architectures that consist of several series-connected dc-ac converters have been a focal point of recent innovations in transformerless medium-voltage applications. In this paper, we consider an architecture consisting of dc-ac modules containing a quadruple active bridge dc-dc converter, which generates three floating dc links that feed grid-side dc-ac inverters. Practical implementation of such a converter module in PV systems requires a variety of controllers that collectively achieve maximum power point tracking, dc-link regulation, and ac-side power control. Design of such multi-loop systems is generally quite challenging due to the potential for destabilizing interactions among loops. Here we propose a design approach where singular perturbation theory is used to decompose the timescales at which each control loop operates and provides a systematic framework for parametric selection. Our approach also ensures system stability of multiple modules with identical controls connected in series across a grid. The paper concludes with experimental results of three 1000 W series-connected converter modules across a stiff grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design, Control, and Protection of a 13.2 kV, 1 MVA Solid State Transformer for Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Station

In this article, a medium-voltage (MV) ac-dc solid state transformer (SST) for electric vehicle (EV) extreme fast charging (XFC) station is proposed. The SST adopts a cascaded H-bridge (CHB)-based structure where the active front end (AFE) power stages are connected in input-series followed by dual active bridge (DAB) converters connected in an output-parallel configuration providing galvanic isolation through a high-frequency transformer (HFT). The SST is rated for 1 MVA and connects directly to a three-phase 13.2 kV MV ac grid through ac switchgear and outputs 750-V dc. At the dc bus, several dc/dc converters are connected, each of which can charge an EV based on its battery capacity. A novel decentralized control architecture of the SST is adopted in this work which simplifies the MV dc link voltage and module-level power balancing. In addition, the local and central protection designs of the SST are presented which identify and respond to the internal fault of the system. Finally, the experimental validations of the SST hardware prototype are presented up to the rated voltage. Furthermore, this article details the design and implementation of the MV SST addressing the challenges of an isolated MV class power converter for connecting directly to the MV ac grid with unique controller architecture, distributed protection framework, and SST constructional features.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

COHORT: Coordination of Heterogeneous Thermostatically Controlled Loads for Demand Flexibility

Demand flexibility is increasingly important for power grids. Careful coordination of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) can modulate energy demand, decrease operating costs, and increase grid resiliency. We propose a novel distributed control framework for the Coordination Of HeterOgeneous Residential Thermostatically controlled loads (COHORT). COHORT is a practical, scalable, and versatile solution that coordinates a population of TCLs to jointly optimize a grid-level objective, while satisfying each TCL’s end-use requirements and operational constraints. To achieve that, we decompose the grid-scale problem into subproblems and coordi- nate their solutions to find the global optimum using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The TCLs’ local problems are distributed to and computed in parallel at each TCL, making COHORT highly scalable and privacy-preserving. While each TCL poses combinatorial and non-convex constraints, we characterize these constraints as a convex set through relaxation, thereby making COHORT computationally viable over long planning horizons. After coordination, each TCL is responsible for its own control and tracks the agreed-upon power trajectory with its preferred strategy. In this work, we translate continuous power back to discrete on/off actuation, using pulse width modulation. COHORT is generalizable to a wide range of grid objectives, which we demonstrate through three distinct use cases: generation following, minimizing ramping, and peak load curtailment. In a notable experiment, we validated our approach through a hardware-in-the-loop simulation, including a real-world air conditioner (AC) controlled via a smart thermostat, and simulated instances of ACs modeled after real-world data traces. During the 15-day experimental period, COHORT reduced daily peak loads by an average of 12.5% and maintained comfortable temperatures.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of a modeling toolkit for the design of building electrical distribution systems

The deployment of building equipment (e.g., lighting, security) and miscellaneous electrical loads that fundamentally require DC power for operation is increasing. Powering these DC loads has traditionally required an AC/DC converter, but the installation of photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems that primarily produce DC power eliminates the need for AC/DC converters at each end-device. However, analyzing system energy efficiency and cost for different electrical distribution architectures can be challenging as software tools that support this are not readily available. This paper presents preliminary results from a laboratory verification of the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit that was developed to address this gap. Three different eight-luminaire lighting systems comprised of market-available products were designed and modeled: one that used traditional AC distribution, a second that used a hybrid AC -to- centralized DC electrical distribution architecture, and a third that used a hybrid AC -to- distributed DC architecture. Notably, AC/DC conversions are required in all three systems. BEEAM models for LED drivers as well as Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) switches were created using laboratory characterization data. The lighting systems were simulated in Modelica, and the results were compared with each other and physics-based expectations. Simulation results show that PoE system energy efficiency is highly dependent on both device specification (e.g., LED driver and PoE switch efficiency) and system architecture (e.g., PoE switch loading) choices, as expected. For the products and system architectures selected for this study, the two DC systems were found to be less efficient than the AC system over the course of typical operation. In future work, simulation results will be compared with laboratory measurements to validate the usefulness of this software for design, and lighting systems with integrated PV and battery energy storage will be simulated to quantify the energy performance improvements that result from the elimination of some AC/DC converters.

Waghale, Anay S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Cumulonimbus Clouds. Part I: Description and Validation of Model

In this two-part paper, influences from environmental factors on lightning in a convective storm are assessed with a model. In Part I, an electrical component is described and applied in the Aerosol–Cloud model (AC). AC treats many types of secondary (e.g., breakup in ice–ice collisions, raindrop-freezing fragmentation, rime splintering) and primary (heterogeneous, homogeneous freezing) ice initiation. AC represents lightning flashes with a statistical treatment of branching from a fractal law constrained by video imagery. The storm simulated is from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS; 19/20 June 2000). The simulation was validated microphysically [e.g., ice/droplet concentrations and mean sizes, liquid water content (LWC), reflectivity, surface precipitation] and dynamically (e.g., ascent) in our 2017 paper. Predicted ice concentrations (~10 L -1 ) agreed—to within a factor of about 2—with aircraft data at flight levels (-10° to -15°C). Here, electrical statistics of the same simulation are compared with observations. Flash rates (to within a factor of 2), triggering altitudes and polarity of flashes, and electric fields, all agree with the coincident STEPS observations. The “normal” tripole of charge structure observed during an electrical balloon sounding is reproduced by AC. It is related to reversal of polarity of noninductive charging in ice–ice collisions seen in laboratory experiments when temperature or LWC are varied. Positively charged graupel and negatively charged snow at most midlevels, charged away from the fastest updrafts, is predicted to cause the normal tripole. Total charge separated in the simulated storm is dominated by collisions involving secondary ice from fragmentation in graupel–snow collisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships between Immersion Freezing and Crystal Habit for Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds—A Numerical Study

Abstract The number concentration of ice particles in Arctic mixed-phase clouds is a major controlling factor of cloud lifetime. The relationships between ice nucleation mode and ice crystal habit development are not yet constrained by observations. This study uses a habit-predicting microphysical scheme within a 3D large-eddy simulation model to evaluate the relationship between immersion freezing and ice habit in a simulated Arctic mixed-phase cloud case. Three immersion freezing parameterizations are considered: a volume-dependent freezing scheme (VF), a parameterization limited to activated droplets (C-AC), and a parameterization limited to coarse aerosol particles (C-CM). Both C-AC and C-CM are based on classical nucleation theory. The freezing rate with VF is found to be greater in downdraft regions than in updraft regions due to the downdraft having a higher number concentration of large droplets. The C-AC cases show active freezing of small droplets near cloud top, whereas in the C-CM cases, mainly the 8–32- μ m-sized droplets freeze in updraft regions near the cloud base. Because the initial crystal size is assumed to affect the axis ratio of hexagonal plates, the VF cases produce crystals with larger axis ratios, resulting in smaller mode radii than the C-AC cases. In all cases, irregular polycrystals dominate near cloud top and a band-like structure develops within the cloud, which qualitatively agrees with previous observations. In the VF and C-CM cases, unactivated large droplets arising from coarse-mode aerosol particles contributed significantly to the freezing rate, producing an important influence on crystal habit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects from Time Dependence of Ice Nucleus Activity for Contrasting Cloud Types

Abstract The role of time-dependent freezing of ice nucleating particles (INPs) is evaluated with the “Aerosol–Cloud” (AC) model in 1) deep convection observed over Oklahoma during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E), 2) orographic clouds observed over North California during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX), and 3) supercooled, stratiform clouds over the United Kingdom, observed during the Aerosol Properties, Processes And Influences on the Earth’s climate (APPRAISE) campaign. AC uses the dynamical core of the WRF Model and has hybrid bin–bulk microphysics and a 3D mesoscale domain. AC is validated against coincident aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations for all three cases. Filtered concentrations of ice (>0.1–0.2 mm) agree with those observed at all sampled levels. AC predicts the INP activity of various types of aerosol particles with an empirical parameterization (EP), which follows a singular approach (no time dependence). Here, the EP is modified to represent time-dependent INP activity by a purely empirical approach, using our published laboratory observations of time-dependent INP activity. In all simulated clouds, the inclusion of time dependence increases the predicted INP activity of mineral dust particles by 0.5–1 order of magnitude. However, there is little impact on the cloud glaciation because the total ice is mostly (80%–90%) from secondary ice production (SIP) at levels warmer than about −36°C. The Hallett–Mossop process and fragmentation in ice–ice collisions together initiate about 70% of the total ice, whereas fragmentation during both raindrop freezing and sublimation contributes <10%. Overall, total ice concentrations and SIP are unaffected by time-dependent INP activity. In the simulated APPRAISE case, the main causes of persistence of long-lived clouds and precipitation are predicted to be SIP in weak embedded convection and reactivation following recirculation of dust particles in supercooled layer cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Instantiation of HCML Demonstrating Bayesian Predictive Modeling for Attentional Control

The research team developed models of Attentional Control (AC) that are unique to existing modeling approaches in the literature. The goal was to enable the research team to (1) make predictions about AC and human performance in real-world scenarios and (2) to make predictions about individual characteristics based on human data. First, the team developed a proof-of-concept approach for representing an experimental design and human subjects data in a Bayesian model, then demonstrated an ability to draw inferences about conditions of interest relevant to real-world scenarios. Ultimately, this effort was successful, and we were able to make reasonable (meaning supported by behavioral data) inferences about conditions of interest to develop a risk model for AC (where risk is defined as a mismatch between AC and attentional demand). The team additionally defined a path forward for a human-constrained machine learning (HCML) approach to make predictions about an individual's state based on performance data. The effort represents a successful first step in both modeling efforts and serves as a basis for future work activities. Numerous opportunities for future work have been defined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗