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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emerging technologies and radical collaboration to advance predictive understanding of watershed hydrobiogeochemistry

Increasing population and resource-intensive lifestyles are driving enhanced demands for clean water, food, and energy. In parallel, land-use change, climate change, and perturbations—including drought, floods, fires, and early snowmelt—are significantly reshaping interactions within watersheds throughout the world. While watersheds are the Earth's key functional unit for assessing and managing water resources, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical interactions that support terrestrial life on Earth (Kaushal, Gold, Bernal, & Tank, 2018; National Research Council, 2012). Although society is dependent upon clean water availability, tractable prediction of watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, including watershed response to perturbations, remains a challenge. Central to the challenge are complex, multiscale interactions between plants, microorganisms, organic matter, minerals, dissolved constituents, and migrating fluids, which occur within and across bedrock-to-canopy compartments and along extensive lateral gradients of a watershed. Several recent community reports have synthesized formidable challenges associated with watershed science and technology (AGU, 2018; Blöschl et al., 2019). Here, we discuss emerging technologies and collaboration modes that are critical for developing generalizable insights about and predictive understanding of complex watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, which are important for underpinning optimized natural resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term hydrological, biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed, East Tennessee, USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Abundance Estimates of Spring–Summer Snake River Chinook Salmon for Fisheries Management

Abstract The Columbia River basin is home to a run of spring–summer Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that returns to the Snake River drainage of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington in the Pacific Northwest. Historically, the run was one of the more productive throughout the Columbia River basin. However, Snake River spring–summer Chinook Salmon have experienced declines in abundance due to overfishing, habitat degradation, and dams. Several stocks are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and are supported by mitigation hatcheries funded by Idaho Power Company, the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, and the Bonneville Power Administration. To maximize tribal and state harvest of returning hatchery adults, minimize impacts on wild fish, and ensure that enough hatchery fish return to meet broodstock needs, careful fisheries management is required. Since 2008, managers have used hatchery adults, PIT-tagged as juveniles and detected at Lower Granite Dam, to generate adult abundance estimates. In season, these estimates inform state and tribal harvest shares and ensure that broodstock needs are met. Postseason, they provide smolt-to-adult survival and return rates. Since 2012, parentage-based tagging (PBT) has provided an alternative method to estimate stock- and age-specific returns at Lower Granite Dam, since returning hatchery adults sampled at Lower Granite Dam can be assigned to their parents. We compared stock-specific abundance estimates between PIT- and PBT-derived methodologies for return years 2016–2019. Across all years, PIT tag estimates accounted for 65% of the PBT-based estimates at Lower Granite Dam across all age-groups and release sites combined. This underrepresentation across all groups equated to 49,833 fish that were not accounted for in PIT tag abundance estimates. It is clear that PBT-based estimates should aide in-season harvest management and postseason run reconstruction to avoid the known bias of estimates from PIT tags, especially during years of low returns when increased accuracy is critical.

Coykendall, D. Katharine (ORCID:0000000211482397)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combination of deep neural network with attention mechanism enhances the explainability of protein contact prediction

Abstract Deep learning has emerged as a revolutionary technology for protein residue‐residue contact prediction since the 2012 CASP10 competition. Considerable advancements in the predictive power of the deep learning‐based contact predictions have been achieved since then. However, little effort has been put into interpreting the black‐box deep learning methods. Algorithms that can interpret the relationship between predicted contact maps and the internal mechanism of the deep learning architectures are needed to explore the essential components of contact inference and improve their explainability. In this study, we present an attention‐based convolutional neural network for protein contact prediction, which consists of two attention mechanism‐based modules: sequence attention and regional attention. Our benchmark results on the CASP13 free‐modeling targets demonstrate that the two attention modules added on top of existing typical deep learning models exhibit a complementary effect that contributes to prediction improvements. More importantly, the inclusion of the attention mechanism provides interpretable patterns that contain useful insights into the key fold‐determining residues in proteins. We expect the attention‐based model can provide a reliable and practically interpretable technique that helps break the current bottlenecks in explaining deep neural networks for contact prediction. The source code of our method is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/InterpretContactMap .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of properties of B$^0_\mathrm{s}\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays and search for B$^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ with the CMS experiment

Results are reported for the $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$ branching fraction and effective lifetime and from a search for the decay B$^{0}$→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$. The analysis uses a data sample of proton-proton collisions accumulated by the CMS experiment in 2011, 2012, and 2016, with center-of-mass energies (integrated luminosities) of 7 TeV (5 fb$^{−1}$), 8 TeV (20 fb$^{−1}$), and 13 TeV (36 fb$^{−1}$). The branching fractions are determined by measuring event yields relative to B$^{+}$→ J/ψK$^{+}$ decays (with J/ψ → μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$), which results in the reduction of many of the systematic uncertainties. The decay $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$ is observed with a significance of 5.6 standard deviations. The branching fraction is measured to be $ \mathrm{\mathcal{B}}\left({\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0\to {\upmu}^{+}{\upmu}^{-}\right)=\left[2.9\pm 0.7\left(\exp \right)\pm 0.2\left(\mathrm{frag}\right)\right]\times {10}^{-9} $, where the first uncertainty combines the experimental statistical and systematic contributions, and the second is due to the uncertainty in the ratio of the $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $ and the B$^{+}$ fragmentation functions. No significant excess is observed for the decay B$^{0}$→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$, and an upper limit of ℬ(B$^{0}$ → μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$) < 3.6 × 10$^{−10}$ is obtained at 95% confidence level. The $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ+μ− effective lifetime is measured to be $ {\tau}_{\upmu^{+}{\upmu}^{-}}={1.70}_{-0.44}^{+0.61} $ ps. These results are consistent with standard model predictions.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amplitude analysis of the $D^+$ → $π^-π^+π^+$ decay and measurement of the $π^-π^+$ S-wave amplitude

An amplitude analysis of the $D^+$ → $π^-π^+π^+$ decay is performed with a sample corresponding to 1.5 fb -1 of integrated luminosity of $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV collected by the LHCb detector in 2012. The sample contains approximately six hundred thousand candidates with a signal purity of 95%. The resonant structure is studied through a fit to the Dalitz plot where the $π^-π^+$ S-wave amplitude is extracted as a function of $π^-π^+$ mass, and spin-1 and spin-2 resonances are included coherently through an isobar model. The S-wave component is found to be dominant, followed by the $ρ(770)^0π^+$ and $f_2(1270)π^+$ components. A small contribution from the $ω$(782) → $π^-π^+$ decay is seen for the first time in the $D^+$ → $π^-π^+π^+$ decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Isolated vesicles in submarine pumice: insights from the 2019 Volcano F eruption, Kingdom of Tonga

No reliable method can distinguish between subaerial and submarine pumice, but recent work shows that highly vesicular (total porosity, φ > 65%) submarine pumice from the 2012 Havre and 2021 Fukutoku Oka-no-Ba eruptions contains abundant isolated porosity (connectivity, C < 0.6). This differs from textural measurements of subaerial pumice with similarly high vesicularities, where high connectivities (C > 0.8) are often measured. To investigate the implications of this under-studied texture for bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence dynamics at submarine eruptions, we analyze the textural characteristics of rafted pumice clasts from the 2019 submarine eruption of Volcano F, located along the Tonga-Kermadec Arc. We examined clasts collected while floating near the vent (50–200 km) and distally on the shores of Fiji (900 km). Using helium pycnometry and X-ray tomography (XRT), we quantified porosity and connectivity in 45 pumice lapilli, classifying them by vesicle macrotexture and edge morphology. Microvesicular clasts, the majority of which have breadcrust and cauliflower textures, exhibit the lowest connectivities (C = 0.61 ± 0.2), while macrovesicular clasts have high connectivities with C ~ 1. We propose that isolated porosity abundance varies according to clast location in the eruption column post-fragmentation. Microvesicular clasts erupted on the edges of the column and experienced high levels of seawater ingestion and subsequent quenching of the entire clast. Macrovesicular clasts, in contrast, erupted in the center of the eruption column and were thus thermally insulated, allowing magmatic bubbles in the molten pumice to nucleate, grow, and coalesce for longer. Our results and interpretation imply that low connectivity, microvesicular clasts preserve pre and syn-eruptive bubble processes at the 2019 Volcano F eruption.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Aquatic Metabolism and Net Ecosystem CO2 Balance in Short- and Long-Hydroperiod Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract How aquatic primary productivity influences the carbon (C) sequestering capacity of wetlands is uncertain. We evaluated the magnitude and variability in aquatic C dynamics and compared them to net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration ( R eco ) rates within calcareous freshwater wetlands in Everglades National Park. We continuously recorded 30-min measurements of dissolved oxygen (DO), water level, water temperature ( T water ), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). These measurements were coupled with ecosystem CO 2 fluxes over 5 years (2012–2016) in a long-hydroperiod peat-rich, freshwater marsh and a short-hydroperiod, freshwater marl prairie. Daily net aquatic primary productivity (NAPP) rates indicated both wetlands were generally net heterotrophic. Gross aquatic primary productivity (GAPP) ranged from 0 to − 6.3 g C m −2 day −1 and aquatic respiration ( R Aq ) from 0 to 6.13 g C m −2 day −1 . Nonlinear interactions between water level, T water , and GAPP and R Aq resulted in high variability in NAPP that contributed to NEE. Net aquatic primary productivity accounted for 4–5% of the deviance explained in NEE rates. With respect to the flux magnitude, daily NAPP was a greater proportion of daily NEE at the long-hydroperiod site (mean = 95%) compared to the short-hydroperiod site (mean = 64%). Although we have confirmed the significant contribution of NAPP to NEE in both long- and short-hydroperiod freshwater wetlands, the decoupling of the aquatic and ecosystem fluxes could largely depend on emergent vegetation, the carbonate cycle, and the lateral C flux.

Malone, Sparkle L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Aliased Noise in the Advanced ACTPol Receiver

Advanced ACTPol is the second-generation polarization-sensitive upgrade to the 6m aperture Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), which increased detector count and frequency coverage compared to the previous ACTPol receiver. Advanced ACTPol utilizes a new two-stage time-division multiplexing readout architecture based on superconducting quantum interference devices to achieve a multiplexing factor as high as 64 (rows), fielding a 2012 detector camera at 150/220 GHz and two 90/150 GHz cameras containing 1716 detectors each. In a time-domain system, aliasing introduces noise to the readout. Here in this work we present a figure of merit to measure this noise contribution and present measurements of the aliased noise fraction of the Advanced ACTPol receiver as deployed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deployment of plug-in electric vehicles in China and the USA: issues and opportunities, foreword

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have been promoted globally for their emission reductions and energy conservation. In addition to financial incentives for PEVs in many countries (Stephens et al. 2018), emission and energy regulatory systems provide additional incentives for PEVs in the USA, Europe, and China (European Union 2014; Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation 2019; U.S. EPA and NHTSA 2012). These incentives, together with PEV technology advances and cost reductions, have caused PEV sales to grow exponentially in many countries and global regions; PEV stocks totaled more than 5 million by the end of 2018 (Fig. 1). The International Energy Agency (2019) projects that PEV sales will grow even more quickly through 2030 to reach a total global PEV stock of 130 million to 250 million.

China↗
DOE OSTI2022

A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Here, we propose a supervised learning approach using publicly available panel data to statistically quantify the specific manifestations of human impacts of an extreme event, such as changes number of suicides, substance abuse, excess mortality, and unemployment. This allows us to conceptually focus our framework on human impacts and how by attributing them to disaster events along widely accepted psychological, economic, and social dimensions. Our modified treatment-effect model allows counterfactual baseline conditions to be posited for each manifestation from which an aggregated quantitative multi-faceted measure of human impacts can be determined. The developed statistical methodology could be beneficial to policymakers who must allocate scarce resources to those communities in greater need. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using annual and monthly panel data from 2012 to 2018 encompassing the 2017 Hurricane Maria event across various municipalities in Puerto Rico. Our statistical modeling methodology stands apart since (i) it explicitly and more realistically captures the effect of different human-oriented manifestations of an actual event and (ii) it is flexible enough to accommodate individual preferences of various stakeholders in how they assign importance to multiple manifestations of human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model

For this study, a high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Collaborative Research Activities of the Arase and Van Allen Probes

This paper presents the highlights of joint observations of the inner magnetosphere by the Arase spacecraft, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, and ground-based experiments integrated into spacecraft programs. The concurrent operation of the two missions in 2017–2019 facilitated the separation of the spatial and temporal structures of dynamic phenomena occurring in the inner magnetosphere. Because the orbital inclination angle of Arase is larger than that of Van Allen Probes, Arase collected observations at higher L-shells up to L ~ 10. After March 2017, similar variations in plasma and waves were detected by Van Allen Probes and Arase. We describe plasma wave observations at longitudinally separated locations in space and geomagnetically-conjugate locations in space and on the ground. The results of instrument intercalibrations between the two missions are also presented. Arase continued its normal operation after the scientific operation of Van Allen Probes completed in October 2019. The combined Van Allen Probes (2012-2019) and Arase (2017-present) observations will cover a full solar cycle. This will be the first comprehensive long-term observation of the inner magnetosphere and radiation belts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗