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At least 55 records · Page 3

STS-114: Discovery L-2 Countdown Status Briefing

George Diller of NASA Public Affairs hosted this briefing. Pete Nickolenko, NASA Test Director; Scott Higgenbotham, STS-114 Payload-Mission Manager; Cathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer were present. Pete reports his team has completed the avionics system check ups, servicing of the cryogenic tanks will take about seven hours that day, and will perform engine system checks and pad close outs come evening. Pete also summarized other standard close out activities: check ups of the Orbiter and ground communications network, rotary service, structure retraction, and external tank load (ETL). Pete reported that the mission will be 12 days with two weather contingency days, and end of mission landing scheduled at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) at approximately 11:00 in the morning, Eastern time on July 25th. Scott briefly reported that all hardware is on board Discovery, closed out, and ready to fly. Cathy reported that hurricane Dennis moved to the North and looking forward to launch. She mentioned of a new hurricane looming and will be named Emily, spotted some crosswinds which will migrate to the west, there is 30% probability weather prohibiting launch. Cathy further gave current weather forecast supported with charts: the Launch Forecast, Tanking Forecast, SRB (Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) Forecast, CONUS and TAL Launch Sites Forecast, and with 24 hours and 48 hours turn around plan. Launch constraints, weather, crosswinds, cloud cover, ground imagery system, launch countdown, launch crews, mission management simulations, launch team simulations were topics covered with the News Media.

Source record↗

STS-121/Discovery L-3 Countdown Status Briefing

The briefing started with opening remarks from George Diller (NASA Public Affairs). Jeff Spaulding (NASA Test Director) discussed the Shuttle launch status and the return to the International Space Station 12 day mission. Debbie Hahn (STS-121 Payload Manager) discussed the installation of mid-decks on ISS and the 2 tons of cargo (mainly crew supplies and food) and the oxygen regeneration system. Kathy Winters (Shuttle Weather Officer) discussed the weather forecast for the launch. The team also answered questions from the press.

Source record↗

Winter Storm Zones on Mars

Preferred regions of weather activity in Mars' winter middle latitudes-so called 'storm zones' are found in a general circulation model of Mars' atmospheric circulation. During northern winter, these storm zones occur in middle latitudes in the major planitia (low-relief regions) of the western and eastern hemisphere. In contrast, the highlands of the eastern hemisphere are mostly quiescent. Compared to Earth's storm zones where diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrasts is crucial, orography on Mars is fundamental to the regionalization of weather activity. Future spacecraft missions aimed at assessing Mars' climate and its variability need to include such regions in observation strategies.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗

Thermally unstable roosts influence winter torpor patterns in a threatened bat species

Abstract Many hibernating bats in thermally stable, subterranean roosts have experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS). However, some WNS-affected species also use thermally unstable roosts during winter that may impact their torpor patterns and WNS susceptibility. From November to March 2017–19, we used temperature-sensitive transmitters to document winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) using thermally unstable roosts in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. Daily mean roost temperature was 12.9 ± 4.9°C SD in bridges and 11.0 ± 4.6°C in accessible cavities with daily fluctuations of 4.8 ± 2°C in bridges and 4.0 ± 1.9°C in accessible cavities and maximum fluctuations of 13.8 and 10.5°C, respectively. Mean torpor bout duration was 2.7 ± 2.8 days and was negatively related to ambient temperature and positively related to precipitation. Bats maintained non-random arousal patterns focused near dusk and were active on 33.6% of tracked days. Fifty-one percent of arousals contained passive rewarming. Normothermic bout duration, general activity and activity away from the roost were positively related to ambient temperature, and activity away from the roost was negatively related to barometric pressure. Our results suggest ambient weather conditions influence winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats using thermally unstable roosts. Short torpor bout durations and potential nighttime foraging during winter by tricolored bats in thermally unstable roosts contrasts with behaviors of tricolored bats in thermally stable roosts. Therefore, tricolored bat using thermally unstable roosts may be less susceptible to WNS. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of understanding the effect of roost thermal stability on winter torpor patterns and the physiological flexibility of broadly distributed hibernating species.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

Enhancing thermal resilience of US residential homes in hot humid climates during extreme temperature events

Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heat waves due to climate change pose enormous safety and health-related risks to people, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities. In this study, we investigate some of the most promising retrofittable and weatherization methods to keep the living zone of residential buildings within an acceptable safety level. We use hours of safety as the resilience metric, which is defined as the time taken by the building's indoor environment to reach a safety threshold temperature. We first identify various passive measures, such as adding extra insulation, improving air sealing, and integrating phase-change materials, which can operate without any external power during winter-storm and heat-wave events. We then employ a whole-building simulation tool to examine the impact of various combinations of retrofit measures and conduct a parametric study to determine the optimal solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

solar wind magnetospheres GPS ionosphere atmospher↗

Monitor weather conditions for cloud seeding control

The author has identified the following significant results. The near real-time DCS platform data transfer to the time-share compare is a working reality. Six stations are now being automatically monitored and displayed with a system delay of 3 to 8 hours from time of data transmission to time of data accessibility on the computer. The DCS platform system has proven itself a valuable tool for near real-time monitoring of mountain precipitation. Data from Wolf Creek Pass were an important input in making the decision when to suspend seeding operations to avoid exceeding suspension criteria in that area. The DCS platforms, as deployed in this investigation, have proven themselves to be reliable weather resistant systems for winter mountain environments in the southern Colorado mountains.

Kahan, A. M.↗

Application of Advanced Earth Observations and Model Simulations to Improve Air Quality Monitoring in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region

Air pollution is a serious environmental health concern in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of south-central Asia, as rapid industrialization and population growth have led to increased anthropogenic emissions from transportation, residential, industrial, energy, and biomass burning sources. Natural emissions from dust and forest fires are additional sources of air pollutants that can exacerbate air quality in the region. The combination of the complex pollutant mixtures and atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon can visibility reductions and hazardous air quality from persistent haze episodes. The Kathmandu Valley is especially vulnerable to extreme haze issues due to the surrounding mountains that restrict air movement and retains pollutants in the atmosphere. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with ground-based networks to provide a comprehensive data toolkit for advancing air quality monitoring and forecasting decisions in the HKH region. The toolkit includes new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager, which provide high spatiotemporal information on NO2, HCHO, SO2, O3, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) are derived from the satellite-retrieved AOD using ground-based observations and forecast model data. The satellite observations are also used to initialize and constrain forecast model systems designed for the HKH region. This talk will highlight the performance of the air quality toolkit for enhancing decision-making processes during exceptional air quality events in the region. Note: Presentation includes additional attachment of full presentation with sound and animation (best when viewed as slide show) with runtime of 15 min 32 secs

Aaron Naeger↗

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), formaldehyde (CH2O), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O 3 ), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Value-added products [e.g., Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5)] are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Air Quality↗

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone, and aerosol optical depth. Value-added products, such as level 4 PM2.5 products, are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Forecasting↗

Assessing the Usefulness of AIRS Radiance Observations in a 4D-Var Assimilation Scheme Using the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) and a Stand Alone Radiative Transfer Algorithm (SARTA)

Short-term precipitation forecast skill remains poor despite further advances in numerical modeling and data analysis. Utilizing indirect observations, such as the radiance observations obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), in a 4D-Var assimilation scheme may lead to a rapid improvement in the skill of 12-h QPF. In order to investigate the usefulness of AIRS observations, the adjoint code of a radiative transfer model (SARTA) is developed and linked to MM5 4D-Var system. A statistical comparison of the AIRS radiances with those calculated using the linked MMS-SARTA model is carried out to assess errors in the radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data, and to develop a quality control scheme. Outliers and any bias that may exist in radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data are identified. An adjoint sensitivity study, utilizing the SARTA adjoint model, is then done to identify the relative sensitivities of each spectral channel to such parameters as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio. Another sensitivity study is done using the MM5 alone to determine the sensitivity of the 12-h QPF to model parameters such as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio under various weather regimes (i.e. summertime convection, winter snowfall). Results from these two types of adjoint sensitivity studies are used to determine which AIRS channels contribute most to 12-h QPF under differing weather regimes. This information is useful when conducting 4D-Var experiments using a subset of the 2378 AIRS spectral channels. Finally, 4D-Var experiments are done to analyze the impact of the AIRS observations on the quality of the 12-h QPF results. This project falls under the data assimilation general session topic as specified by the conference organizers.

Carrier, M.↗

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment −PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

forecasting↗

Volcanic winters

The impact of volcanic eruptions on weather and climate is considered. The data from nineteenth-century eruptions is examined, showing the importance of sulfur volatiles for climate change. Information obtained from ice cores is discussed, and the contrasts between the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and El Chichon are pointed out. The atmospheric effects of the greatest historic eruptions are recalled. The potential for the occurrence of 'volcanic winters' and the possible role of volcanism in mass extinctions are considered.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗