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NASA NTRS2017

GES DISC Datalist Enables Easy Data Selection For Natural Phenomena Studies

In order to investigate and assess natural hazards such as tropical storms, winter storms, volcanic eruptions, floods, and drought in a timely manner, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been developing an efficient data search and access service. Called "Datalist," this service enables users to acquire their data of interest "all at once," with minimum effort. A Datalist is a virtual collection of predefined or user-defined data variables from one or more archived data sets. Datalists are more than just data. Datalists effectively provide users with a sophisticated integrated data and services package, including metadata, citation, documentation, visualization, and data-specific services (e.g., subset and OPeNDAP), all available from one-stop shopping. The predefined Datalists, created by the experienced GES DISC science support team, should save a significant amount of time that users would otherwise have to spend. The Datalist service is an extension of the new GES DISC website, which is completely data-driven. A Datalist, also known as "data bundle," is treated just as any other data set. Being a virtual collection, a Datalist requires no extra storage space.

natural hazards↗

NASA NTRS2016

GES DISC Datalist Enables Easy Data Selection for Natural Phenomena Studies

In order to investigate and assess natural hazards such as tropical storms, winter storms, volcanic eruptions, floods, and drought in a timely manner, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been developing an efficient data search and access service. Called Datalist, this service enables users to acquire their data of interest all at once, with minimum effort. A Datalistis a virtual collection of predefined or user-defined data variables from one or more archived data sets. Datalistsare more than just data. Datalistseffectively provide users with a sophisticated integrated data and services package, including metadata, citation, documentation, visualization, and data-specific services (e.g., subset and OPeNDAP), all available from one-stop shopping. The predefined Datalists, created by the experienced GES DISC science support team, should save a significant amount of time that users would otherwise have to spend. The Datalistservice is an extension of the new GES DISC website, which is completely data-driven. A Datalist, also known as data bundle, is treated just as any other data set. Being a virtual collection, a Datalistrequires no extra storage space.

Earth events↗

NASA NTRS1989

A case study of a low lightning rate storm during the Florida winter

Meteorological and cloud electrical data collected during a winter storm on January 21, 1988 at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida are presented. A pronounced transition from area-integrated convergence to divergence with associated peak electrical activity was observed, which appears to be characteristic for both the summer and the winter storms at KSC. The mesoscale precipitation region behind the squall line was substantially electrified over an area far larger than the KSC complex. It is noted that, in such a situation, the accumulated electric charge and peak lightning currents may be an order of magnitude greater than those encountered in isolated summer thunderstorms, and the lightning hazard is correspondingly greater.

Williams, Earle R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Polarization Lidar Liquid Cloud Detection Algorithm for Winter Mountain Storms

We have collected an extensive polarization lidar dataset from elevated sites in the Tushar Mountains of Utah in support of winter storm cloud seeding research and experiments. Our truck-mounted ruby lidar collected zenith, dual-polarization lidar data through a roof window equipped with a wiper system to prevent snowfall accumulation. Lidar returns were collected at a rate of one shot every 1 to 5 min during declared storm periods over the 1985 and 1987 mid-Jan. to mid-Mar. Field seasons. The mid-barrier remote sensor field site was located at 2.57 km MSL. Of chief interest to weather modification efforts are the heights of supercooled liquid water (SLW) clouds, which must be known to assess their 'seedability' (i.e., temperature and height suitability for artificially increasing snowfall). We are currently re-examining out entire dataset to determine the climatological properties of SLW clouds in winter storms using an autonomous computer algorithm.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western US. As storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, event-scale storm response to warming has not been well established. Here regional storm-resolving simulations are used to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. In mid-century under a high emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region. Increased area coverage and storm intensity explain 69% and 60% of this increase, respectively, while a robust sharpening of future storms with larger increase in storm center precipitation than increase in storm area offsets the increase by 31%. Ignoring the changing area-intensity relationship due to storm sharpening could overestimate the watershed design storms by up to 10% or 7-75mm across the western US. Future storm structural changes have broad infrastructure, hydrological, and ecological implications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Wildfires

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using IEEE 1366-2022, which defines major events as "an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system." Resilience planning is focused on major event days, and reliability planning is focused on non-major event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common resilience components identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on wildfires. Standalone reports focusing on severe storms (including hurricanes and non-winter storms) and winter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2010

DSD Characteristics of a Mid-Winter Tornadic Storm Using C-Band Polarimetric Radar and Two 2D-Video Disdrometers

Drop size distributions in an evolving tornadic storm are examined using C-band polarimetric radar observations and two 2D-video disdrometers. The E-F2 storm occurred in mid-winter (21 January 2010) in northern Alabama, USA, and caused widespread damage. The evolution of the storm occurred within the C-band radar coverage and moreover, several minutes prior to touch down, the storm passed over a site where several disdrometers including two 2D video disdrometers (2DVD) had been installed. One of the 2DVDs is a low profile unit and the other is a new next generation compact unit currently undergoing performance evaluation. Analyses of the radar data indicate that the main region of precipitation should be treated as a "big-drop" regime case. Even the measured differential reflectivity values (i.e. without attenuation correction) were as high as 6-7 dB within regions of high reflectivity. Standard attenuation-correction methods using differential propagation phase have been "fine tuned" to be applicable to the "big drop" regime. The corrected reflectivity and differential reflectivity data are combined with the co-polar correlation coefficient and specific differential phase to determine the mass-weighted mean diameter, Dm, and the width of the mass spectrum, (sigma)M, as well as the intercept parameter , Nw. Significant areas of high Dm (3-4 mm) were retrieved within the main precipitation areas of the tornadic storm. The "big drop" regime assumption is substantiated by the two sets of 2DVD measurements. The Dm values calculated from 1-minute drop size distributions reached nearly 4 mm, whilst the maximum drop diameters were over 6 mm. The fall velocity measurements from the 2DVD indicate almost all hydrometeors to be fully melted at ground level. Drop shapes for this event are also being investigated from the 2DVD camera data.

Thurai, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Latent Energy and Snow Fall Speed on a Wintertime Midlatitude Cyclone

This study aimed to understand the impacts of latent energy as well as snow fall speeds on precipitation properties and synoptic-scale storm characteristics of a wintertime midlatitude cyclone. Simulations of a potent winter storm that impacted the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of the United States in February 2017 were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with latent heating or cooling from individual microphysical processes systematically turned off and fall speeds adjusted by ±50%. Results indicated substantial impacts on the microphysical characteristics of the simulated storm to fall speed, cooling from sublimation, and warming from deposition. The impacts of cooling and warming were manifested as differences in accumulated snowfall. Increased (decreased) fall speeds led to smaller (larger) ice crystals and total mass, resulting in offsetting effects on the precipitation flux, and thus minimal impacts on snowfall and large-scale characteristics of the storm. Warming and cooling associated with deposition and sublimation, respectively, impacted the synoptic-scale dynamics, whereby removing warming from deposition resulted in an increased meridional temperature gradient near the jet stream, thus increasing the jet strength and causing it to be more westerly with less curvature aloft. This in turn limited upper-level divergence, creating a weaker surface low and shifting the precipitation shield southward. The opposite occurred with the removal of latent cooling due to sublimation. This study highlights the potential importance of latent energy associated with ice sublimation and deposition and fall speeds in the larger-scale characteristics of winter storms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

FACT is a software program that provides important information about winter weather operations to airline dispatchers and airport personnel. FACT has a "quad" design and shows various maps, text, and tabular information. It also has a team messaging capability. It is meant to be used by airline dispatchers and airport personnel to manage winter storms. This presentation is for a meeting with Boeing. COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT; AIRLINE OPERATIONS; STORMS COMPUTER PROGRAMS; AIRLINE OPERATIONS; WEATHER FORECASTING; MESSAGE PROCESSING; AIRCRAFT COMMUNICATION; WINTER; STORMS (METEOROLOGY); COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

airline dispatchers↗

NASA NTRS1992

Deuterium in North Atlantic storm tops

During the ERICA project in 1989, ice crystals were collected from the tops of two winter storms and one broad cirrus cloud. Deuterium concentration in the storm ice samples, together with a model of isotope fractionation, are used to determine the temperature where the ice was formed. Knowledge of the ice formation temperature allows us to determine whether the ice has fallen or been lofted to the altitude of collection. In both storms, the estimated fall distance decreases upward. In the 21 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at the cloud top. In the 23 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at a point 2 km below the cloud top and appears to become negative above, indicating lofted ice. Cloud particle data from the cloud tops show an ice-to-vapor ratio greater than one and indicate the presence of particles with small terminal velocities; both observations support the idea of ice lofting. The satellite-derived cloud tops lie well below the actual cloud top (e.g., 2.5 km below on 23 January), indicating that the lofted ice in winter storms may not be detectable from space using IR radiance techniques. A comparison of deuterium in cloud-top ice and clear-air vapor suggests that even in winter, when vertical air motions are relatively weak, lofted ice crystals are the dominant source of water vapor in the upper troposphere.

Smith, Ronald B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2006

Design and Development of a Scanning Airborne Direct Detection Doppler Lidar System

In the fall of 2005 we began developing an airborne scanning direct detection molecular Doppler lidar. The instrument is being built as part of the Tropospheric Wind Lidar Technology Experiment (TWiLiTE), a three year project selected by the NASA Earth Sun Technology Office under the Instrument Incubator Program. The TWiLiTE project is a collaboration involving scientists and engineers from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA ESRL, Utah State University Space Dynamics Lab, Michigan Aerospace Corporation and Sigma Space Corporation. The TWiLiTE instrument will leverage significant research and development investments made by NASA Goddard and it's partners in the past several years in key lidar technologies and sub-systems (lasers, telescopes, scanning systems, detectors and receivers) required to enable spaceborne global wind lidar measurement. These sub-systems will be integrated into a complete molecular direct detection Doppler wind lidar system designed for autonomous operation on a high altitude aircraft, such as the NASA WB57. The WB57 flies at an altitude of 18 km and from this vantage point the nadir viewing Doppler lidar will be able to profile winds through the full troposphere. The TWiLiTE integrated airborne Doppler lidar instrument will be the first demonstration of a airborne scanning direct detection Doppler lidar and will serve as a critical milestone on the path to a future spaceborne tropospheric wind system. In addition to being a technology testbed for space based tropospheric wind lidar, when completed the TWiLiTE high altitude airborne lidar will be used for studying mesoscale dynamics and storm research (e.g. winter storms, hurricanes) and could be used for calibration and validation of satellite based wind systems such as ESA's Aeolus Atmospheric Dynamics Mission. The TWiLiTE Doppler lidar will have the capability to profile winds in clear air from the aircraft altitude of 18 km to the surface with 250 m vertical resolution and < 2mls velocity accuracy.

Gentry, Bruce↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing thermal resilience of US residential homes in hot humid climates during extreme temperature events

Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heat waves due to climate change pose enormous safety and health-related risks to people, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities. In this study, we investigate some of the most promising retrofittable and weatherization methods to keep the living zone of residential buildings within an acceptable safety level. We use hours of safety as the resilience metric, which is defined as the time taken by the building's indoor environment to reach a safety threshold temperature. We first identify various passive measures, such as adding extra insulation, improving air sealing, and integrating phase-change materials, which can operate without any external power during winter-storm and heat-wave events. We then employ a whole-building simulation tool to examine the impact of various combinations of retrofit measures and conduct a parametric study to determine the optimal solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of the 2019 Midwest US Flooding Using NASA Data

In the wake of Winter Storm Ulmer, an intense "bomb cyclone" that set preliminary low-pressure records, historic flooding occurred in 41 locations across the Midwest United States, causing many streams and rivers - including the Platte, Missouri, and Elkhorn Rivers - to rise to all-time record flood levels in Nebraska. Warm and dry conditions, along with 4-8 inches of snowfall, and over 1" of rain caused over 3-5" of storm water runoff from rapid melting.A rare confluence of circumstances produced the flooding, including extreme cold earlier in the winter that preserved a significant amount of snowfall, a thick layer of ice on waterways, and the large downpour of rain from Winter Storm Ulmer. Unusually warm air caused the snow and ice to rapidly melt, producing record amounts of runoff within a short period of time. This poster presents several data sets from NASA and the USGS (our partner agency) that can be used in analyzing floods and flood areas, including soil moisture, snowfall, floodwater areas, vicinity of urban areas and impervious surfaces, and proximity of strategic or critical infrastructure.

DAAC↗