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DOE OSTI2021

A heuristic tool to assess regional impacts of renewable energy infrastructure on conservation areas

Wind and hydropower are important renewable components of national energy portfolios, but their infrastructure negatively affects biodiversity. Regional development requires identification of scenarios that minimize the cumulative impacts of multiple facilities. We introduce the cumulative impact plot (CIP) to quantify cumulative impacts of renewable energy development within a region. Summed impacts of facilities are plotted as a function of the number of facilities, with facilities ranked by increasing (the best-case scenario) or decreasing (worst-case scenario) individual impact. These curves represent lower and upper bounds to which alternative development scenarios (e.g., facilities ranked by generating capacity) can be compared. We used CIPs to assess overlap of potential wind and hydropower facilities with two types of conservation area in the United States: (1) federally protected lands and (2) critical habitats of federally threatened and endangered species. Here, we evaluated two alternative scenarios: facilities ranked by (A) decreasing generating capacity and (B) increasing distance from urban centers. Differences between the best-case and worst-case scenarios were large, thus revealing opportunities to develop facilities with limited impact on conservation areas. Alternative scenarios maximizing energy density generally resulted in conservation area overlap intermediate to best-case and worst-case scenarios. CIPs can also identify the proportion of wind versus hydropower favored under alternative scenarios. Build-out scenarios aimed at minimizing conservation area overlap favor hydropower, whereas alternative scenarios favor wind power. We conclude that CIPs can (1) complement—but should not replace—project-level environmental impact assessment, (2) integrate strategic, cumulative, and scenario-based assessments, and (3) harness rapidly growing geospatial data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring the Grid Value Potential of Offshore Wind Energy in Oregon

The grid value of Oregon's offshore wind resource is considered through the lenses of (i) resource complementarity with the hydroelectric system and other Variable Renewable Energy resources, (ii) load complementarity with the four balancing authorities with territory in Oregon, and (iii) spatial value to regional and coastal grids as represented through a Production Cost Model of the WECC system. Capacity implications of the interactions between offshore wind and the historical east-to-west power flows of the region are reviewed. The existing system is shown to accommodate 2GW of offshore wind interconnections without curtailment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential of Offshore Wind Energy Off the Coast of California

Two buoys equipped with lidars owned by US Department of Energy were deployed off the coast of California in fall of 2020 by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The buoys are scheduled to collect data for an entire annual cycle at two offshore locations proposed for offshore wind development by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. One of the buoys was deployed approximately 50 km off the coast near Morro Bay in central California in 1100 m of water. The second buoy was deployed approximately 40 km off Humboldt County in northern California in 625 m of water. The buoys provided the first-ever measurements of hub-height winds off the coast of California. The atmospheric and oceanographic characteristics of the area and estimates of annual energy production at both Morro Bay and Humboldt lease areas show that both locations have a high wind energy yield and are prime locations for future floating offshore wind turbines.

Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Impact of Near-Term Innovations on the Technical Potential of Land-Based Wind Energy

Land based wind may play a critical role in reaching emissions reductions goals and high renewable contribution scenarios with capacity expansion modeling results estimating over 1 terawatt of land-based wind by 2035 to reach 100% clean electricity. Deployment of land-based wind at this magnitude may require significant investments in transmission infrastructure and will require significant land area for new wind and transmission. Cost reductions via technological advancements in wind turbine design, construction, and maintenance will have a major role in enabling the scale of deployment required. Since 1998, the levelized cost of wind energy has fallen by over 60% due to improvements in capacity factors, advancements in turbine controls, and cost reductions in installation, operation, and maintenance. These cost reduction pathways, generally referred to as wind technology "innovations", have enabled significant increases in the capacity and electric generation share of wind power in the United States. Nevertheless, achievements of past wind innovations have not led to widespread wind deployment outside of high wind speed geographies. This study evaluates the potential of near-term innovations to expand the geographic range of economically viable land-based wind power production in the United States. Many challenges to future deployment of wind power can be associated with increasing concentration in high-wind areas. As more wind power is deployed in these same areas, it is likely that residential and regulatory resistance to further deployment will increase, access to transmission will diminish, and options for distant companies and governments with renewable energy goals will remain limited. Therefore, this analysis aims to emphasize the potential for innovations to enable land-based wind in regions with limited wind deployment and with lower wind resource and better access to transmission.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking large-scale weather patterns to observed and modeled turbine hub-height winds offshore of the US West Coast

The US West Coast holds great potential for wind power generation, although its potential varies due to the complex coastal climate. Characterizing and modeling turbine hub-height winds under different weather conditions are vital for wind resource assessment and management. This study uses a two-stage machine learning algorithm to identify five large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs): post-trough, post-ridge, pre-ridge, pre-trough, and California high. The LSMPs are linked to offshore wind patterns, specifically at lidar buoy locations within lease areas for future wind farm development off Humboldt and Morro Bay. While each LSMP is associated with characteristic large-scale atmospheric conditions and corresponding differences in wind direction, diurnal variation, and jet features at the two lidar sites, substantial variability in wind speeds can still occur within each LSMP. Wind speeds at Humboldt increase during the post-trough, pre-ridge, and California-high LSMPs and decrease during the remaining LSMPs. Morro Bay has smaller responses in mean speeds, showing increased wind speed during the post-trough and California-high LSMPs. Besides the LSMPs, local factors, including the land–sea thermal contrast and topography, also modify mean winds and diurnal variation. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model analysis does a good job of capturing the mean and variation at Humboldt but produces large biases at Morro Bay, particularly during the pre-ridge and California-high LSMPs. The findings are anticipated to guide the selection of cases for studying the influence of specific large-scale and local factors on California offshore winds and to contribute to refining numerical weather prediction models, thereby enhancing the efficiency and reliability of offshore wind energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The transmission ramifications of social and environmental siting considerations on wind energy deployment

Increasing the capacity of wind power is critical to achieving climate goals, however its continued deployment faces environmental and social siting challenges. For example, the United States government is increasingly emphasizing the importance of a just energy transition by considering the social impacts of energy and environmental justice (EEJ). In this study, we investigate the impact of considering available EEJ metrics and environmental impacts into siting wind power and transmission by applying SimWIND PRO . SimWIND PRO is an infrastructure optimization tool that can site wind energy technologies and transmission by concurrently considering wind resource potential, transmission costs, EEJ, and environmental impacts. We demonstrate the impacts of considering EEJ and environmental factors in the context of Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) western region, which includes some of the best wind energy potential in the United States. We show that prioritizing EEJ and environmental considerations in wind deployment can result in exponentially more transmission deployment for the same amount of wind power delivered, and results in selecting different wind farm sites. Our results also show that, depending on how it is considered, it is possible that constraining sites based on EEJ and environmental factors can reduce the available capacity of wind energy enough that energy transition capacity targets cannot be met.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the exposure of three diving bird species to offshore wind areas on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf using satellite telemetry

Abstract Aim The United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) has considerable offshore wind energy potential. Capturing that resource is part of a broader effort to reduce CO 2 emissions. While few turbines have been constructed in U.S. waters, over a dozen currently planned offshore wind projects have the potential to displace marine birds, potentially leading to effective habitat loss. We focused on three diving birds identified in Europe to be vulnerable to displacement. Our research aimed to determine their potential exposure to areas designated or proposed for offshore wind development along the Atlantic OCS. Methods Satellite tracking technology was used to determine the spatial and temporal use and movement patterns of Surf Scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ), Red‐throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) and Northern Gannets ( Morus bassanus ), and calculate their exposure to each offshore wind area. We tagged 236 adults in 2012–2015 on the Atlantic OCS from New Jersey to North Carolina; an additional 147 birds tagged in previous tracking studies were integrated into our analyses. Tracking data were analysed in two‐week intervals using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to develop composite spatial utilization distributions. For each species, these distributions were then used to calculate the spatio‐temporal exposure to each offshore wind area. Results Surf Scoters and Red‐throated Loons were exposed to offshore wind areas almost exclusively during migration because these species were distributed among coastal and inshore waters during winter months. In contrast, Northern Gannets ranged over a much larger area, reaching farther offshore and south in winter, thus exhibited the greatest exposure to extant offshore wind areas. Conclusions Results of this study provide better understanding of how diving birds use current and potential future offshore wind areas on the Atlantic OCS, and can inform permitting, risk assessment and pre‐ and post‐construction impact assessments of offshore energy infrastructure.

Stenhouse, Iain J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power and Wind Shear Implications of Large Wind Turbine Scenarios in the US Central Plains

Continued growth of wind turbine physical dimensions is examined in terms of the implications for wind speed, power and shear across the rotor plane. High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to generate statistics of wind speed profiles for scenarios of current and future wind turbines. The nine-month simulations, focused on the eastern Central Plains, show that the power scales broadly as expected with the increase in rotor diameter (D) and wind speeds at hub-height (H). Increasing wind turbine dimensions from current values (approximately H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to those of the new International Energy Agency reference wind turbine (H = 150 m, D = 240 m), the power across the rotor plane increases 7.1 times. The mean domain-wide wind shear exponent (α) decreases from 0.21 (H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to 0.19 for the largest wind turbine scenario considered (H = 168 m, D = 248 m) and the frequency of extreme positive shear (α > 0.2) declines from 48% to 38% of 10-min periods. Thus, deployment of larger wind turbines potentially yields considerable net benefits for both the wind resource and reductions in fatigue loading related to vertical shear.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systems engineering vision for floating offshore wind cost optimization

The U.S. offshore wind resource potential is immense, and often in close proximity to densely-populated coastal load centers. In many U.S. coastal areas, water depths favor the deployment of floating over fixed-bottom offshore wind technology. Floating offshore wind plants have the potential to be cost-competitive with fixed-bottom installations, but because the technology has not yet been deployed at commercial scale, it is not clear when and with what configurations this potential cost parity can be achieved. This article first reviews the state of floating offshore wind technology and deployments to identify key gaps that must be addressed to bring down the overall cost of energy produced. The article then puts forth a long-term vision for a research program and design methodology that may be able to push floating wind plants toward a lower levelized cost of energy than fixed-bottom offshore wind. The method involves a fully integrated systems-engineering and techno-economic design approach to capture the complex interactions between the physics, manufacturing, installation, and operation of floating wind turbines to achieve transformational cost reductions. The approach also envisions multifidelity and uncertainty management strategies to examine the most robust and viable concepts in the design trade-space. To better focus the computational resources, engineering lessons learned from existing offshore wind systems and concept studies are used to develop a set of criteria that can be applied to prefilter candidate technology building blocks that have the greatest cost reduction potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contextualizing Wind Turbine Blade Waste: Comparison to Other Global Waste Streams

Worldwide wind energy generation capacity has grown rapidly over the past several decades, and wind turbines installed at the beginning of this wave of growth are approaching the end of their design lifetimes. As an increasing number of wind power plants reach their end of life, both decommissioning and repowering (i.e., dismantling or refurbishing existing turbines and commissioning new ones) will produce waste material from the retired wind turbines, foundations, and balance of plant. However, the amount and type of waste, particularly for wind blades, is often mischaracterized. Although wind turbine components are largely recyclable, the blades are typically made of fiberglass composites, which can present challenges for material recovery and reuse. Within the USA, the accumulation of wind turbine blades in landfills has raised questions about whether the continued expansion of wind energy is sustainable if it results in substantial future waste. This study compares the mass and volume of potential global wind blade waste to other waste streams. It also discusses the materials used to manufacture wind turbine blades and summarizes current options for material redesign, recycling (recovery and reuse), repurposing, and disposal of used blades. The analysis indicates that, although wind turbine blades could represent 14% of the composite market by 2027, the potential future mass and volume of wind turbine blade waste is relatively small compared to other industries. These findings suggest that although the development of scalable, economically viable, and environmentally sustainable methods for wind turbine manufacturing, repurposing, and recycling is important, it may make sense to take advantage of synergies among multiple industries in recycling composite waste, rather than focusing solely on wind turbine blades. From a global perspective, larger sustainability, recycling, and waste stream reduction impacts can be made in other industries, such as transportation and construction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proto-neutron star convection and the neutrino-driven wind: implications for the r-process

The neutrino-driven wind from proto-neutron stars is a proposed site for r-process nucleosynthesis, although most previous work has found that a wind heated only by neutrinos cannot produce the third r-process peak. However, several groups have noted that introducing a secondary heating source within the wind can change the hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently for a strong r-process to proceed. One possible secondary heating source is gravito-acoustic waves, generated by convection inside the proto-neutron star. As these waves propagate into the wind, they can both accelerate the wind and shock and deposit energy into the wind. Additionally, the acceleration of the wind by these waves can reduce the total number of neutrino captures and thereby reduce the final electron fraction of the wind. In neutron rich conditions, all of these effects can make conditions more favourable for r-process nucleosynthesis. Here, we present a systematic investigation of the impact of these convection-generated gravito-acoustic waves within the wind on potential nucleosynthesis. We find that wave effects in the wind can generate conditions favourable for a strong r-process, even when the energy flux in the waves is a factor of 10 –4 smaller than the total neutrino energy flux and the wind is marginally neutron rich. Nevertheless, this depends strongly on the radius at which the waves become non-linear and form shocks. We also find that both entropy production after shock formation and the acceleration of the wind due to stresses produced by the waves prior to shock formation impact the structure and nucleosynthesis of these winds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uplifting winds: The surprisingly positive community-wide impact of wind energy installations on property values

A primary concern of stakeholders when considering a new wind project is the potential negative effects wind turbines may have on home values. Yet, what has been surprisingly overlooked in the literature and general discourse around wind energy is that the well-researched positive economic development and fiscal and amenity benefits of wind energy (e.g., increased tax base, tax revenue, better public services and employment gains) might positively affect jurisdiction-wide housing values. With a focus on school districts in the United States, we compare home values in school districts with wind energy installations, before and after a wind energy installation becomes operational, to home values in other school districts located in the same county but without a wind energy installation to provide some of the first causal evidence on the relationship between wind energy projects and district-wide property values. We find that wind projects lead to economically meaningful increases in district-wide housing values of approximately 3 %, when those values are compared to similar homes located in school districts in same-county without wind energy. The effect is strongly correlated with wind project size. The mechanisms, our research suggests, are likely related to relatively large increases in school district per-pupil revenues and expenditures, which are also correlated with wind project size. We suggest other possible mechanisms for the increased values as well.

Attitudes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗