CO2 Rock Physics Code with Compliant Porosity and CO2 Weakening
An NRAP funded code development for CO2 storage. This code converts reservoir simulations to seismic properties for underground CO2 storage.
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An NRAP funded code development for CO2 storage. This code converts reservoir simulations to seismic properties for underground CO2 storage.
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Stress concentration in bent thin isotropic plate having hole of arbitrary shape
Bending and stability of rectangular plates with cuts determined by displacement function
The influence of preheating on the initiation of fracture in rocks subjected to the impingement of a continuous water jet is studied. Preheating the rock is assumed to degrade its mechanical properties and strength in accordance with existing experimental data. The water jet is assumed to place a quasi-static loading on the surface of the rock. The loading is approximated by elementary functions which permit analytic computation of the induced stresses in a rock half-space. The resulting stresses are subsequently coupled with the Griffith criteria for tensile failure to estimate the change, due to heating, in the critical stagnation pressure and velocity of the water jet required to cause failure in the rock.
Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of ten- uous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.
We have carried out an extensive X-ray spectral study of the bare Seyfert-1 galaxy MCG –02–58–22to ascertain the nature of the X-ray reprocessing media, using observations from Suzaku(2009) and simultaneous observations from XMM-Newton and NuSTAR(2016) . The most significant results of our investigation are: 1. The primary X-ray emission from the corona is constant in these observations, both in terms of the power law slope (Γ = 1.80) and luminosity (L2−10 keV= 2.55×1044erg s−1). 2.The soft excess flux decreased by a factor of two in 2016, the Compton hump weakened/vanished in2016, and the narrow FeKαemission line became marginally broad (σ= 0.35±0.08 keV) and its flux doubled in 2016. 3. From physical model fits we find that the normalization of the narrow component of the FeKαline does not change in the two epochs, although the Compton hump vanishes in the same time span. Since the primary X-ray continuum does not change, we presume that any changes in there processed emission must arise due to changes in the reprocessing media. Our primary conclusions are: A. The vanishing of the Compton hump in 2016 can probably be explained by a dynamic clumpytorus which is infalling/outflowing, or by a polar torus wind. B. The torus in this AGN possibly has two structures: an equatorial toroidal disk (producing the narrow FeKαemission) and a polar component(producing the variable Compton hump), C. The reduction of the soft-excess flux by half and increase in the FeKαflux by a factor of two in the same period cannot be adequately explained by ionized disk reflection model alone.
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The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.
Previous work using land-based lightning detection networks and lightning imagers in low Earth orbit has established that lighting is a useful predictor of TC intensification. Increases in the number of lightning flashes in both the inner core and outer rainbands of hurricanes are linked to hurricane intensification. Sometimes, however, lightning outbreaks can occur in storms that weaken during or after the outbreak. Environmental conditions such as vertical wind shear and land interaction or inner-core structural changes such as secondary eyewall formation can account for some of this discrepancy. Hurricane Dorian (2019), however, exhibited a distinct inner-core lightning outbreak in a low-shear environment with minimal land interaction. The lightning flashes during this outbreak were located on the inner edge of the eyewall, which is not the expected location of enhanced convection during secondary eyewall formation. Regardless, Dorian weakened during and after this lightning outbreak. This presentation will analyze Dorian’s lightning evolution using data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite. GLM provides continuous observations of not only the number and polarity of lightning flashes, but also the size and optical energy of the flashes. Here we show marked differences in the distributions of average flash area and total optical energy between the two most pronounced lightning outbreaks in Dorian’s lifetime: one while the storm was rapidly intensifying and another while the storm began to weaken. During intensification, lightning flashes were fewer but larger and more energetic, whereas during weakening, lightning flashes were much more numerous, but were smaller and less energetic. We present evidence that barotropic mixing between the eye and eyewall could have contributed to both the increase in inner-core lightning and the weakening of Dorian’s storm-scale maximum wind speed. These results suggest that average flash area and total optical energy could help to distinguish between lightning outbreaks that correspond to intensification and outbreaks that correspond to weakening.
Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.