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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Interaction Between Climate Forcing and Feedbacks

A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti-correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Convective Microphysics Scheme and Its Impacts on Mean Climate in E3SM

Abstract To improve the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds and their interaction with aerosol and stratiform clouds, a two‐moment convective microphysics parameterization (CMP) scheme developed by Song and Zhang (2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014833 ) is upgraded and implemented in E3SM. The new developments include: (a) implementing a parameterization for graupel to enhance the representation of ice‐phase microphysical processes; (b) representing the impact of spatial inhomogeneity of cloud droplets in cumulus ensembles on autoconversion and accretion processes to improve the representation of warm‐rain microphysical processes; (c) implementing a comprehensive Bergeron process parameterization to better represent mixed‐phase microphysical processes; and (d) representing the interactions between ice‐phase microphysics and cloud thermodynamics. Simulations show that the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the CMP are generally in good agreement with observations. It reasonably simulates the changes in droplets effective radius related to precipitation formation in convective clouds, as identified from satellite observations. It also successfully simulates the contrast in these processes between maritime and continental clouds, demonstrating its capability to simulate the impact of aerosols on convection. Analyses of the impact of CMP on climate mean state simulation demonstrate that the CMP slightly improves the simulations of precipitation, cloud macrophysical properties, longwave cloud radiative forcing, zonal wind, and temperature. However, a degradation in shortwave cloud radiative forcing occurs.

GCM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei Facilitate Drizzle Formation in Stratocumulus—Insights From a Combined Observation‐Modeling Framework

The mechanism for initiating drizzle drop remains a gap in the current understanding of warm rain formation. One prevalent hypothesis suggests that the presence of Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei (GCCN) generates drizzle‐sized drops necessary to trigger the Collision‐Coalescence (C‐C) process. Here, in this study, this hypothesis is investigated using a novel framework that integrates in situ observations, remote sensing measurements, and idealized models. Results show that GCCN can efficiently generate drizzle drops through condensation, producing a broad Droplet Size Distribution (DSD) comparable to in situ observations. The large drizzle drop and broad DSD strongly facilitate C‐C, further accelerating drizzle initiation. To compare with observation, the model‐generated DSDs are used to generate radar Doppler spectra where radar reflectivity and Doppler skewness is estimated. The simulated radar quantities correspond well with radar observations, providing critical evidence for the GCCN‐induced drizzle initiation mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes

As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed phase (“cold”) to liquid (“warm”) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longerlived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by Earth and constitutes a negative radiative feedback. This cooling feedback is weaker in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, contributing to greater greenhouse warming. While this change is often attributed to improvements in simulated cloud phase, another model bias persists: warm clouds precipitate too readily, potentially leading to underestimated negative lifetime feedbacks. In this work, we modify a climate model to better simulate warm rain probability and find it exhibits a cloud lifetime feedback nearly three times larger than the default model. This suggests model errors in cloud-precipitation processes may bias cloud feedbacks as much as CMIP5–CMIP6 climate sensitivity differences. Reliable climate model projections therefore require improved cloud process realism guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulated aerosol–cloud interactions for deep convective clouds over Houston

Aerosol–cloud interactions remain largely uncertain with respect to predicting their impacts on weather and climate. Cloud microphysics parameterization is one of the factors leading to large uncertainty. Here, we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the convective intensity and precipitation of a thunderstorm occurring on 19 June 2013 over Houston with the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) using the Morrison two-moment bulk scheme and spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. We find that the SBM predicts a deep convective cloud that shows better agreement with observations in terms of reflectivity and precipitation compared with the Morrison bulk scheme that has been used in many weather and climate models. With the SBM scheme, we see a significant invigoration effect on convective intensity and precipitation by anthropogenic aerosols, mainly through enhanced condensation latent heating. Such an effect is absent with the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics, mainly because the saturation adjustment approach for droplet condensation and evaporation calculation limits the enhancement by aerosols in (1) condensation latent heat by removing the dependence of condensation on droplets and aerosols and (2) ice-related processes because the approach leads to stronger warm rain and weaker ice processes than the explicit supersaturation approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of dust on rainfall over the Red Sea coast based on WRF-Chem model simulations

Water is the single most important element of life. Rainfall plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of this precious natural resource, and it has a direct impact on agricultural production, daily life activities, and human health. One of the important elements that govern rainfall formation and distribution is atmospheric aerosol, which also affects the Earth's radiation balance and climate. Therefore, understanding how dust compositions and distributions affect the regional rainfall pattern is crucial, particularly in regions with high atmospheric dust loads such as the Middle East. Although aerosol and rainfall research has garnered increasing attention as both an independent and interdisciplinary topic in the last few decades, the details of various direct and indirect pathways by which dust affects rainfall are not yet fully understood. Here, we explored the effects of dust on rainfall formation and distribution as well as the physical mechanisms that govern these phenomena, using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations (~1.5 km × 1.5 km) configured with an advanced double-moment cloud microphysics scheme coupled with a sectional eight-bin aerosol scheme. Our model-simulated results were realistic, as evaluated from multiple perspectives including vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, aerosol size distributions, vertical profiles of air temperature, diurnal wind cycles, and spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. Rainfall over the Red Sea coast is mainly caused by warm rain processes, which are typically confined within a height of ~6 km over the Sarawat mountains and exhibit a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the evening at approximately 18:00 local time under the influence of sea breezes. Numerical experiments indicated that dust could both suppress or enhance rainfall. The effect of dust on rainfall was calculated as total, indirect, and direct effects, based on 10-year August-average daily-accumulated rainfall over the study domain covering the eastern Red Sea coast. For extreme rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall of ≥ 1.33 mm), the net effect of dust on rainfall was positive or enhancement (6.05 %), with the indirect effect (4.54 %) and direct effect (1.51 %) both causing rainfall increase. At a 5 % significance level, the total and indirect effects were statistically significant whereas the direct effect was not. For normal rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall < 1.33 mm), the indirect effect enhanced rainfall (4.76 %) whereas the direct effect suppressed rainfall (-5.78 %), resulting in a negative net suppressing effect (-1.02 %), all of which were statistically significant. We investigated the possible physical mechanisms of the effects and found that the rainfall suppression by dust direct effects was mainly caused by the scattering of solar radiation by dust. The surface cooling induced by dust weakens the sea breeze circulation, which decreases the associated landward moisture transport, ultimately suppressing rainfall. For extreme rainfall events, dust causes net rainfall enhancement through indirect effects as the high dust concentration facilitates raindrops to grow when the water vapor is sufficiently available. Our results have broader scientific and environmental implications. Specifically, although dust is considered a problem from an air quality perspective, our results highlight the important role of dust on sea breeze circulation and associated rainfall over the Red Sea coastal regions. Our results also have implications for cloud seeding and water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol-deep convection interaction based on joint cell-thermal tracking in Large Eddy Simulations during the TRACER campaign

In cumulus clouds, aerosol concentrations control cloud droplet concentrations, modifying cloud radiative properties, precipitation processes, and cloud electrification. However, mechanisms of aerosol-deep convection interactions are not well understood due to complex cloud dynamics and microphysics. We investigate the interaction of aerosols with isolated deep convection using Large Eddy Simulations of two cases during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas, using a joint cell-thermal tracking algorithm. Cumulus thermals are droplet generators, since supersaturation and droplet nucleation coincide with thermal centers, where the strongest updrafts occur. Primary ice crystal formation does not take place inside thermals, but at layers where previous thermals detrained moisture. As subsequent thermals containing supercooled droplets penetrate these layers, hail and graupel form at or near these thermals. Higher aerosol concentrations result in higher droplet concentrations that suppress drizzle, delay warm rain processes, and transport more moisture aloft. This increases snow and ice amount, as well as graupel and hail, leading to more lightning. Polluted thermals initiate at slightly higher altitudes, and are slightly larger and faster, suggesting a weak invigoration. We also find more thermals per cell, but fewer isolated cells, since convection is more aggregated and intense, especially near the end of the 24 h simulation. Non-linear mesoscale feedback likely triggered by temperature and moisture responses to aerosol-thermal interactions causes the aggregation. Time-lagged aerosol-reinitialization experiments show that the mesoscale response is the predominant forcing for the invigoration. These changes happen within one day, on a smaller scale than previously suggested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method

Abstract. A key constraint of particle-based methods for modeling cloud microphysics is the conservation of total particle number, which is required for computational tractability. The process of collisional breakup poses a particular challenge to this framework, as breakup events often produce many droplet fragments of varying sizes, which would require creating new particles in the system. This work introduces a representation of collisional breakup in the so-called “superdroplet” method which conserves the total number of superdroplets in the system. This representation extends an existing stochastic collisional-coalescence scheme and samples from a fragment size distribution in an additional Monte Carlo step. This method is demonstrated in a set of idealized box model and single-column warm-rain simulations. We further discuss the effects of the breakup dynamic and fragment size distribution on the particle size distribution, hydrometeor population, and microphysical process rates. Box model experiments serve to characterize the impacts of properties such as coalescence efficiency and fragmentation function on the relative roles of collisional breakup and coalescence. The results demonstrate that this representation of collisional breakup can produce a stationary particle size distribution, in which breakup and coalescence rates are approximately equal, and that it recovers expected behavior such as a reduction in precipitate-sized particles in the column model. The breakup algorithm presented here contributes to an open-source pythonic implementation of the superdroplet method, PySDM, which will facilitate future research using particle-based microphysics.

de Jong, Emily (ORCID:0000000253104554)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mountain-induced moist baroclinic wave test case for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

Idealized test cases for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models are informative tools to assess the accuracy of the numerical designs and investigate the general characteristics of atmospheric motions. A new test case is introduced that is built upon a baroclinically unstable base state with an added orographic barrier. The topography is analytically prescribed and acts as a trigger of both baroclinic Rossby waves and inertia–gravity waves on a rotating, regular-sized planet. Both dry and idealized moist configurations are suggested. The latter utilizes the Kessler warm-rain precipitation scheme. The test case enhances the complexity of the existing test suite hierarchy and focuses on the impacts of two midlatitudinal mountain ridges on the circulation. Selected simulation examples from four dynamical cores are shown. These are the Spectral Element and Finite Volume dynamical cores, which are part of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM), versions 2.1.3 and 2.2, and the Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume dynamical cores, which is new to CESM version 2.2. In addition, the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is tested. The overall flow patterns agree well in the four dynamical cores, but the details can vary greatly. The examples highlight the broad palette of use cases for the test case and reveal physics–dynamics coupling issues.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distortions of the Rain Distribution With Warming, With and Without Self-Aggregation

We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative-convective equilibrium states in a cloud-resolving model. For a given Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20%–30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative- and surface-flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non-trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius-Clapeyron and super-Clausius-Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges. The potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However, these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self-aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics, and turbulence schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

Abstract The East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend

Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.

Zhuang, Haoyu (Richard) [Department of Atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microphysics Dominates Sub‐Cloud Rain Evaporation in Trade Cumuli Over Barbados

This study investigates the microphysical and thermodynamic influences on North Atlantic trade-cumulus rain evaporation in the sub-cloud layer over Barbados from January to November 2020. Using radar observations and a 1-D model, the results reveal that microphysical properties, namely geometric mean diameter (D g ) and raindrop concentration, primarily control evaporation processes under conditions of limited thermodynamic variability. Thermodynamic factors like cloud base height and relative humidity exert a smaller influence due to their narrow observed ranges. Small D g leads to rapid increases in rain evaporation fraction (REF), as small drops evaporate completely, while larger D g yields slower, more gradual REF changes. Frequent weak-rain cases reduce the mean evaporation flux, whereas infrequent intense-rain events substantially enhance it. These findings highlight the pivotal role of microphysical variability in shaping sub-cloud evaporation in this trade cumulus regime, while thermodynamic effects may be more important in other environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dampening of the Precipitation Response to Aerosol Pollution From Turbulence in Cumulus Clouds

Using aircraft observations and a cloud model with particle‐based microphysics, it is shown that the enhancement of drop collision‐coalescence from turbulence in clouds not only leads to earlier onset of rain in warm cumulus clouds as past studies have suggested, but also significantly dampens the precipitation susceptibility to aerosol loading. Enhanced drop coalescence from turbulence substantially increases the production of drizzle embryos just above cloud base, which in turn act as seeds that accelerate rain drop growth at mid and upper cloud levels even in highly polluted conditions. In contrast, pollution aerosols strongly inhibit rainfall when the commonly assumed gravitational‐only collision kernel is used and turbulent coalescence is neglected. Overall, turbulence‐enhanced drop coalescence strongly influences the response of warm cumulus clouds and precipitation to aerosol loading, suggesting that the effects of turbulent coalescence should be included in Earth system model representations of aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions and aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant [NSF National Center for At↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are turbulence effects on droplet collision–coalescence a key to understanding observed rain formation in clouds?

Rain formation is a critical factor governing the lifecycle and radiative forcing of clouds and therefore it is a key element of weather and climate. Cloud microphysics–turbulence interactions occur across a wide range of scales and are challenging to represent in atmospheric models with limited resolution. Based on past experiments and idealized numerical simulations, it has been postulated that cloud turbulence accelerates rain formation by enhancing drop collision–coalescence. We provide substantial evidence for significant impacts of turbulence on the evolution of cloud droplet size distributions and rain formation by comparing high-resolution observations of cumulus congestus clouds with state-of-the-art large-eddy simulations coupled with a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics scheme. Turbulent coalescence must be included in the model to accurately represent the observed drop size distributions, especially for drizzle drop sizes at lower heights in the cloud. Turbulence causes earlier rain formation and greater rain accumulation compared to simulations with gravitational coalescence only. The observed rain size distribution tail just above cloud base follows a power law scaling that deviates from theoretical scalings considering either a purely gravitation collision kernel or a turbulent kernel neglecting droplet inertial effects, providing additional evidence for turbulent coalescence in clouds. In contrast, large aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (“giant CCN”) do not significantly impact rain formation owing to their long timescale to reach equilibrium wet size relative to the lifetime of rising cumulus thermals. Overall, turbulent drop coalescence exerts a dominant influence on rain initiation in warm cumulus clouds, with limited impacts of giant CCN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗