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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Deep Learning-Based Workflow for Fast Prediction of 3D State Variables in Geological Carbon Storage: A Dimension Reduction Approach

In this study, we used deep learning techniques, which are a form of artificial intelligence, to create fast and effective models for predicting how fluids flow in underground geological formations. This is important for managing geological carbon storage, a method used to fight climate change by storing carbon dioxide underground. The challenge lies in the complex nature of these underground spaces and the large amount of data needed to accurately simulate them. To overcome these issues, we developed a new workflow that reduces the data’s complexity before training the deep learning model and then reconstructs the predicted results in their original form. We also proposed a unique approach to handle the specific complexities found in 3D saturation fields, a crucial aspect of fluid flow prediction. We tested our method using real-world data from the Gulf of Mexico. Our results show that our approach not only accurately predicts fluid behavior but also significantly reduces computation time. This will greatly improve real-time decision-making and risk assessment in large-scale geological carbon storage operations.

Wang, Hongsheng↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable, Learnable, Regionalized Process-Based Models With Multiphysical Outputs can Approach State-Of-The-Art Hydrologic Prediction Accuracy

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, δ models can obtain a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial development of a high temperature life prediction method directly accounting for variability in material properties

This report presents the initial development of a life prediction method that accounts for the variability of the material properties in Grade 91 steel. We account for material variability by both fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to the rupture data of the material and by quantifying the effect that the creep deformation properties have on stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure a reasonable time frame when applying Monte Carlo to the creep stress, we propose a methodology that models the material as an extremely viscous Stokes flow with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the problem in a single step. We use the final probabilistic model for structural failure developed in this document to evaluate a Flat Head Vessel designed with the Section III, Division 5 ASME Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code rules with a 100,000h design life and assess its probability of premature failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Generator Predictions of Single Transverse Variables in Neutrino-Argon Scattering [Poster]

Precise modeling of neutrino-argon scattering is a crucial requirement for the DUNE and SBN neutrino oscillation programs. Single transverse variables provide a powerful handle on theoretically-challenging nuclear effects in neutrino-carbon scattering, but they remain unmeasured for argon. The MicroBooNE experiment has the opportunity to achieve the first measurement of STVs in a LArTPC. The first detailed study of generator predictions for STVs in vμ-Ar scattering, reported in this poster, reveals substantial opportunities for model discrimination: Relative contributions of CCQE vs. 2p-2h interactions; and,Treatment of nucleon pair initial state. We encourage MicroBooNE to pursue a measurement of this kind. Many more generator comparisons from our study are available.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delineating Variabilities of Groundwater Level Prediction Across the Agriculturally Intensive Transboundary Aquifers of South Asia

We report the groundwater depletion in South Asia’s Himalayan, transboundary Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (IGBM) rivers basin is among the highest globally. Given the high irrigation demand and population, groundwater sustainability requires an improved understanding of groundwater systems for the accurate prediction of groundwater levels (GWLs). However, the prediction of groundwater system behaviors is a significant challenge since it is dominated by spatiotemporal and subsurface depth-dependent drivers. Earlier studies that address the challenges are mainly based on the short spatial and temporal extent and/or do not separate the renewable (i.e., shallow) vs nonrenewable (i.e., deeper) groundwater signals. Here, we first identified the variable importance of spatial and depth-dependent drivers on GWL in the IGBM basin. Our results indicate a greater influence of anthropogenic factors (i.e., widespread pumping and increased population) in most parts of the IGBM basin, except in the precipitation-dominated basin of the Brahmaputra. Our next purpose was to delineate a multifactorial approach for GWL prediction using the two most used machine learning models (i.e., support vector machine and feed-forward neural network) in the literature. In general, the machine learning model outputs show a good match in comparison to the GWL from the observation wells (n = 2303 distributed across India and Bangladesh) with some limitations in areas with increased groundwater irrigation. We separately compared the results from shallow (<35 m) and deep (>35 m) observation wells, emphasizing the significance of deep groundwater pumping. Our approach highlights the importance of spatiotemporal to multidepth factors in GWL prediction and can be adopted in other parts of the globe to predict GWLs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic data fusion and physics-informed machine learning: A new paradigm for modeling under uncertainty, and its application to accelerating the discovery of new materials

In this report we summarize the work conducted by PI Perdikaris and his group under this Early Career project DE–SC0019116 during the period of 09/01/2018 – 08/31/2023. The central aim of the work was to introduce a new paradigm for scientific data analysis that can seamlessly synthesize rigorous mathematical modeling with data of variable fidelity (e.g., measurements at multiple scales/resolutions or predictions of variable fidelity models) and multiple modalities (e.g., images, time–series, or scattered measurements). The setting we are interested in involves complex systems that are partially observed and whose dynamical behavior could be hard to model or totally unknown. The inherent uncertainty associated with this setting necessitates a departure from the classical deterministic realm of modeling and scientific computation, and, consequently, our main building blocks can no longer be crisp deterministic numbers and governing laws, but instead we must operate with probabilistic models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Energy Yield Estimates via a Metocean Reference Site

The offshore wind industry is burgeoning in the coastal waters of the United States, specifically along the Atlantic. For wind energy to be successful, reliable observations and model simulations are needed for resource assessment and forecasting. While many of these activities have already begun, there is currently an absence of observations at hub-height in these waters, with the closest available hub-height measurements usually taken onshore. Deployment of floating lidars has occurred through various federally funded projects, but only encapsulates time periods of a couple of years at best. Private industry is also beginning to leverage floating lidars, but this data is often proprietary, and not shared with the general public. In this work, we make the case for a metocean reference site for long-term offshore wind energy. Specifically, we quantify the impact of having a metocean reference site compared to other methods of determining hub-height winds and energy production. We use an offshore floating lidar to directly measure the wind resource, and compare these measurements to predictions derived from other widely-available surface meteorological variables. These prediction methods (vertical extrapolation, machine learning, and NWP output) produce a variety of vertical wind speed profiles, of which produce different energy yield estimates for a reference offshore turbine (Figure 1). While some methods perform reasonably well against the lidar, the uncertainty in these energy yield estimates has financial implications, further illustrating the need for long-term measurements in coastal waters.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Weather Systems Connecting Modes of Climate Variability to Regional Hydroclimate Extremes

Abstract Weather system clustering provides a high‐level summary of regional meteorological conditions. Most quantitative clustering schemes focus on precipitation alone, which does not sufficiently describe the meteorological conditions driving hydroclimate variability. This study presents the Weather Anomaly Clustering (WAC‐hydro), which extends the existing capability of predicting weather systems to predicting hydroclimate variability. Focusing on both precipitation and temperature predictions, WAC‐hydro identifies 12 clusters of daily weather anomaly modes in the US Pacific Northwest Puget Sound region during 1981–2020. The influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on regional precipitation can be well approximated by their modulation on the weather clusters. Within each weather cluster, local factors such as topography only play a secondary role in the hydrologic variability. The weather clusters highlight two types of flood‐inducing regional weather conditions, one causing floods by inducing positive precipitation anomalies and the other causing floods through combined precipitation and temperature‐induced rain‐on‐snow effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single-pion contribution to the Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn sum rule and related integrals

Phenomenological amplitudes obtained in partial-wave analyses (PWA) of single-pion photoproduction are used to evaluate the contribution of this process to the Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn (GDH), Baldin and Gell-Mann-Goldberger-Thirring (GGT) sum rules, by integrating up to 2 GeV in photon energy. Here, our study confirms that the single-pion contribution to all these sum rules converges even before the highest considered photon energy, but the levels of saturation are very different in the three cases. Single-pion production almost saturates the GDH sum rule for the proton, while a large fraction is missing in the neutron case. The Baldin integrals for the proton and the neutron are both saturated to about four fifths of the predicted total strength. For the GGT sum rule, the wide variability in predictions precludes any definitive statement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability: Supporting Data and Code

This repository contains R code and associated datasets for reproducing the analysis described in the manuscript titled “Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability” (DOI: 10.1029/2024JG008604). The provided scripts facilitate a comprehensive analysis of snow depth variability influenced by microtopography and vegetation distribution in a subarctic watershed. Included datasets are high-resolution spatial maps of snow depth, terrain elevation, vegetation height, and distance from shrubs taller than 1 meter, all formatted as text files (.txt). These data are fully describe in doi:10.15485/2316038. Users can adapt the provided R scripts to accommodate different data formats or larger spatial domains, noting that some output files may require modification due to their size.The code includes implementations for boosted regression tree analysis adapted from methods outlined in Elith et al. (2008). Users interested in understanding or modeling landscape-scale snow distribution patterns, particularly in Arctic or subarctic ecosystems, will find this package useful. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tencoder: tensor-product encoder-decoder architecture for predicting solutions of PDEs with variable boundary data

It is widely hoped that artificial intelligence will boost data-driven surrogate models in science and engineering. However, fundamental spatial aspects of AI surrogate models remain under-studied. We investigate the ability of neural-network surrogate models to predict solutions to PDEs under variable boundary values. We do not wish to retrain the model when the boundary values change but to make them inputs to the model and infer the solution of the PDE under those boundary conditions. Such a capability is essential to making AI-based surrogate models practically useful. While simple feedforward networks are used for one-dimensional (1D) Poisson equation, an encoder-decoder architecture with a tensor-product layer is developed for the two-dimensional Poisson equation posed on a rectangular domain. We show that it is indeed possible to infer solutions to PDEs from variable boundary data using neural networks in this relatively simple setting, and point to future directions.

Kashi, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings

Building demand flexibility (DF) research has recently gained attention. To unlock building DF as a predictable grid resource, we must establish a quantitative understanding of the resource size, performance variability, and predictability based on large empirical datasets. Researchers have proposed various sets of theoretical metrics to measure this performance. Some metrics have been applied to simulation results, but most fall short of exploring the complexities in real building applications. There are practical metrics used in individual demand response field studies but they alone cannot fulfil the job of DF benchmarking across a diverse group of buildings. The electrical grid's geographically diverse and changing nature presents challenges to comparing building DF performance measured under different conditions (i.e., benchmarking DF). To address this challenge, a novel DF benchmarking framework focused on load shedding and shifting is presented; the foundation is a set of simple, proven single-event metrics with attributes describing event conditions. These enable benchmarking and visualization in different dimensions for identifying trends that represent how these attributes influence DF. To test its feasibility and scalability, the DF framework was applied to two case studies of 11 office buildings and 121 big-box retail buildings with demand response participation data. Furthermore, these examples provided a pathway for using both building level benchmarking and aggregation to extract insights into building DF about magnitude, consistency, and influential factors. Potential applications of the framework and real-world values have been identified for grid and building stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗