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51 records · Page 3

Progressing -190 °C to +500 °C Durable SiC JFET ICs From MSI to LSI

This invited paper describes prototype SiC JFET integrated circuit (IC) and packaging technology that has produced arguably the most harsh-environment durable electronics ever demonstrated. Prototype medium-scale integration (MSI) ICs fabricated by NASA Glenn Research Center have successfully operated for over 1 year in 500 °C air-ambient, over 60 days in 460 °C and 9.3 MPa pressure caustic Venus surface environment test chamber, from -190 °C to +812 °C, and radiation exposure through 7 MRad(Si) total ionizing dose and 86 MeV-cm2/mg heavy ion strikes. Recent on-going work focused on upscaling this “go anywhere” IC capability from MSI to large-scale integration (LSI) prototype via benchmark memory ICs is described.

Integrated Circuits↗

Geostationary Satellite Observations Over Global Environmental Monitoring Sites

Globally, there are now hundreds of ground-based environmental monitoring stations routinely collecting data on a variety of earth-atmosphere interactions. Such observations are also being augmented with data from orbiting satellites. With the beginning of the EOS-era, the MODIS subset around flux towers has been frequently used for validating ecosystem models developed at flux towers and upscaling the observed flux data to regional scales. However, MODIS on the polar-orbiting satellites can observe target regions only once a day, while the Fluxnet eddy- covariance data are compiled as sub-hourly. Therefore, summarizing the sub-hourly flux data into daily statistics is necessary for the comparison between MODIS and Flux data. The new generation geostationary satellite sensors (GOES-16/17 ABI and Himawari-8/9 AHI) have capabilities similar to MODIS but collect data at 5-15 minute intervals. These high-frequency observations allow us to understand and scale diurnal fluxes. Some studies have already shown the effective utilization of time series of geostationary satellite data for ecosystem modeling. We are producing NEX Level-1G products, which are gridded Top-of-Atmosphere reflectance and brightness temperature data from geostationary satellite sensors. We cut out the NEX Level-1G data using the same file format with the MODIS subset except for the projection. The other data products (e.g., surface reflectance, land surface temperature, vegetation indices, and climate data) will be added upon their availability. Currently included networks are Fluxnet, PhenoCam, and AERONET. The NEX subset data will be provided through NASA NEX data portal.

Geostationary Satellites↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous and mountainous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

Manuel Helbig↗

Organized kinetic energy backscatter in the hurricane boundary layer from radar measurements

The fluid mechanics of hurricanes strongly depends on boundary layer energetics due to the warm-core nature of the system with peak velocities located at lower levels. One barrier that has inhibited a more complete characterization of energy transfer in the boundary layer is a lack of observations that resolve large, turbulent eddies. In particular, the occurrence and structure of upscale energy transfer (backscatter) in the hurricane boundary layer as well as the effects of backscatter on the vortex intensity are unknown. The analysis presented here of very high-resolution, three-dimensional wind observations from Hurricane Rita (2005) at peak intensity reveals large regions of organized backscatter in the boundary layer associated with coherent, turbulent eddies. Strong forwardscatter is also found next to the backscatter regions due to the interaction between adjacent eddies. Two components of the stress tensor are primarily responsible for this alternating scatter structure, as shown by large correlation coefficients between the fields: the radial–vertical component (τ13) and the azimuthal–vertical component (τ23) with average correlations of 79% and 49 %, respectively. The Leonard, Reynolds and cross-term stress components are also provided. The impact of the sub-filter-scale energy transfer is estimated by computing the kinetic energy budget for the resolved-scale and eddy-scale motions. The results show that the sub-filter-scale energy transfer term is of the same order as the other terms in the eddy-scale budgets, contributing between 16% and 40% to the local time tendency with an average contribution of approximately 30 %. These results indicate that the coherent turbulent eddies can affect the vortex dynamics through wave–wave nonlinear interactions, which can subsequently influence the wave–mean flow interactions. This is the first study to examine the full sub-filter-scale

Sydney Sroka↗

GeoNEX-SUBSETS: Cutouts of geostationary satellite data over long-term monitoring sites

Satellite remote sensing data are important tool for extrapolating the knowledge obtained at the Fluxnet towers. We introduce our GEO-NEX geostationary satellite subset products, which make it easy to compare between ground observation and Geo-NEX products. The MODIS subset has been frequently used for validating ecosystem models developed at flux towers and upscaling the observed flux data to regional scales. However, MODIS on the polar orbiting satellites can observe target regions only once a day, while the Fluxnet eddy-covariance data are compiled as sub-hourly datasets. As a results, summarizing the sub-hourly flux data into daily statistics is necessary for the comparison between MODIS and Flux data. Here, the new generation geostationary satellite sensors (GOES-16/17 ABI and Himawari-8/9 AHI) has the high-frequent observation feature (10 minutes) in addition to similar spectral band and spatial resolution with MODIS. The high frequent observation allows us to compare the flux diurnal cycle with geostationary satellite sensor data. Some studies have already shown the effective utilization of time series of geostationary satellite data for ecosystem modeling. We are producing NEX Level-1G products, which is the gridded Top-of-Atmosphere reflectance and brightness temperature data of geostationary satellite sensors. We cut out the NEX Level-1G data using the same file format with the MODIS subset except for the projection. The other data products (e.g., surface reflectance, land surface temperature, vegetation indices and climate data) will be also added upon their availability. We selected the ground observation sites from Fluxnet, Phenocam, and AERONET networks. The NEX subset data will be provided through NASA NEX data portal.

GeoNEX↗

Research for Climate Adaptation

Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues to transform ambition to action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, and accelerate learning through practice.

Climate-change adaptation↗

Discrete anisotropic radiative transfer modelling of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Structural impacts in geometrically explicit vegetation canopies

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is a subtle but informative optical signal of vegetation photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF integrates environmental, physiological and structural changes that alter photosynthesis at leaf, plant and canopy scales. Radiative transfer models are ideally suited to investigate the complex sources of variability in the SIF signal to guide the interpretation of SIF retrievals from airborne and space-borne platforms. Here, we coupled the Fluspect-Cx model of leaf optical properties and chlorophyll-a fluorescence with the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to upscale SIF from individual leaves to three-dimensional (3D) structurally explicit canopies. For one-dimensional homogeneous (turbid-like) canopies, DART-SIF was nearly identical to SIF simulated in two existing models, SCOPE and mSCOPE (RMSE <0.221 W./sq.m.μm.sr). DART simulations in geometrically explicit 3D canopies offered four important insights regarding the influence of vegetation structure on the multi-angular top-of-canopy SIF signal. First, changes in the 3D canopy architecture of maize crops, represented by leaf density (leaf area index), and plant clumping (canopy closure) had a larger impact on SIF than the modelled photosynthetic efficiency distinction between sun-adapted and shade-adapted foliage. Second, clumping of leaves at the crop and stand levels was identified as one of the key driving factors of multi-angular anisotropy of red and far-red SIF (686 and 740 nm) for both maize and eucalyptus canopies. Third, non-photosynthetic woody material had a significant impact on top-of-canopy SIF in modelled 3D forest stands. Wood shadowing decreased the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green leaves, and consequently the SIF emissions, by 10% in sparse and 17% in dense eucalyptus stands. The wood obstruction (blocking) effect, quantified as a relative difference of SIF escape probabilities from canopies with and without wood in the nadir viewing direction, decreased far-red SIF by 4–6% but it had a smaller and sometimes positive influence (by less than 2%) on red SIF. Fourth, DART 3D radiative budget profiles revealed that the majority of the SIF signal from a dense eucalyptus stand originated from the top 25% of the simulated canopy. Interestingly, the introduction of bark-covered woody elements did not alter the simulated balance and omnidirectional escape factor of red SIF in this upper canopy part but did raise significantly both of them in case of far-red SIF. These results demonstrate the importance of 3D radiative transfer and radiative budget simulations for investigating SIF interactions in structurally complex plant canopies and for a better understanding of spatiotemporal and multi-angular remote sensing SIF observations.

Zbyněk Malenovský↗

Mapping tree canopy cover and canopy height with L-band SAR using LiDAR data and Random Forests

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data can provide direct measurements of vegetation structures but are limited by the sparse spatial coverage. Polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can perform large-scale high-resolution mapping without weather constraints but the information about vegetation and ground subsurface are mixed in the backscatter data. In this paper, we adopted the Random Forests algorithm to train an upscaling function using tree canopy cover (TCC) and canopy height model (CHM) derived from Goddard’s LiDAR, Hyperspectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) data. The regression model is then applied to the L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) data acquired during the 2017 Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) airborne campaign to map the TCC and CHM over the Delta Junction area in interior Alaska.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

Simulation of Radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem Global Model: Emissions, Seasonality, and Convective Transport

Radon-222 (Rn-222) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surfaces and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate Rn-222 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve our understanding of Rn-222 emissions and surface concentration seasonality and characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP). We evaluate four global Rn-222 emission scenarios by comparing model results with observations at 51 surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with surface observations globally (68.9 % of data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of winter surface Rn-222 concentrations at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of Rn-222 emission fluxes (1 atom cm−2 s−1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global Rn-222 emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and demonstrate its potential to improve simulated surface Rn-222 concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors in determining Rn-222 emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface Rn-222 concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional Rn-222 emissions. We therefore propose a conservative upscaling factor of 1.2 for Rn-222 emission fluxes in China, which was also constrained by observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (a progeny of Rn-222). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with observations in Europe and North America (> 80 % of data within a factor of 2) and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70 %). Further constraints on Rn-222 emissions would require additional concentration and emission flux observations in the central United States, Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed Rn-222 vertical profiles in northern midlatitude summer and from three short-term airborne campaigns. While simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of Rn-222 concentrations in the lower troposphere (0–4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared with GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of Rn-222, which is partially compensated for by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of Rn-222 concentrations between the two simulations. This has important implications for using chemical transport models to interpret the transport of other trace species when these GEOS products are used as driving meteorology.

Bo Zhang↗

Historically inconsistent productivity and respiration fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle

The terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Its dominant fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP), and respiration (in particular soil respiration, RS), are typically estimated from independent satellite-driven models and upscaled in situ measurements, respectively. We combine carbon-cycle flux estimates and partitioning coefficients to show that historical estimates of global GPP and RS are irreconcilable. When we estimate GPP based on RS measurements and some assumptions about RS:GPP ratios, we found the resulted global GPP values (bootstrap mean 149^(+29)_(−23) Pg C/yr) are significantly higher than most GPP estimates reported in the literature (113^(+18)_(−18) Pg C/yr). Similarly, historical GPP estimates imply a soil respiration flux (Rs(_GPP), bootstrap mean of 68^(+10)_(−8) Pg C/yr) statistically inconsistent with most published RS values (87^(+9)_(−8) Pg C/yr), although recent, higher, GPP estimates are narrowing this gap. Furthermore, global R_(S):GPP ratios are inconsistent with spatial averages of this ratio calculated from individual sites as well as CMIP6 model results. This discrepancy has implications for our understanding of carbon turnover times and the terrestrial sensitivity to climate change. Future efforts should reconcile the discrepancies associated with calculations for GPP and Rs to improve estimates of the global carbon budget.

Jinshi Jian↗

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗

Progress Towards SiC ASICs for Extreme Temperature and Radiation Environments

This presentation describes development and demonstrations of semiconductor integrated circuits (ICs) and ceramic packaging that are arguably the most environmentally durable transistor electronics ever demonstrated. Silicon carbide (SiC) junction field effect transistor-resistor (JFET-R) ICs fabricated by NASA Glenn Research Center with two-level interconnect have successfully operated for over 1 year in 500 °C air-ambient, 60 days in 460 °C and 9.3 MPa pressure caustic Venus surface environment test chamber, and radiation exposure through 7 Mrad(Si) total ionizing dose (TID) and 86 MeV-cm2/mg heavy ion strikes. Furthermore, these ICs have also demonstrated operation from -190 °C to +812 °C (over 1000 °C temperature span) without significant change in signal (input /output) or power supply voltages. While the operating frequency and functional complexity is far below silicon-based ICs, these SiC application specific ICs (ASICs) are nevertheless becoming capable of providing unique and advantageous harsh-environment circuit functionality without cooling/sheltering overhead. With modest adjustments, the SiC JFET-R fabrication process is compatible with semiconductor mass-production tools and materials. As an initial step towards manufacture, a majority of processing steps to realize the next SiC JFET-R IC prototype wafer run have been outsourced to commercial foundry. It is expected that further upscaling combined with technology transfer to commercial production will lower investment and risk barriers to useful application deployment.

high temperature↗

Multiscale Modeling of Fracture Strength in Fibrous Thermal Protection System Materials

This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.

Jaehyun Cho↗

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed.

upscaling↗