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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Hydropower Multi-Sensor Data for Inference and Age-Informed Modeling

Increased demand of operational flexibility such as faster ramp up/down in generation, and more frequent start/stops are putting hydropower plants and their associated components in unprecedented stress. Consequently, these plants are at the high risk of extended and more frequent outage to accommodate unscheduled, and unexpected maintenance. Therefore, hydropower plants are in critical need of data driven and age-informed analysis for their regular and unscheduled operation. Yet not all hydropower plants are exhaustively equipped with sensors and/or measurement streams for their respective components – demanding solutions on how to detect, identify, and locate the cause of any event from the unobservable. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) analyzed the anonymized measurements and event records from the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI) to address this issue, as part of the Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) funded one year multi-lab project. First, we investigated how time series of multiple sensor measurements can be leveraged to identify an event “root cause” as well as to develop an inference (i.e., estimate the unobservable) problem. INL also investigated how individual hydropower components’ reaction or response times vary across the pre-event, during event, and post-event conditions – enabling the hydropower dynamic models to be age-informed. Finally, the impact of clustering multi-sensor time series on short-term vibration prediction is analyzed. INL will present key findings from these analyses and recommend next steps for stakeholder adoption.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of cyber attacks on distributed compressive sensing based state estimation in power distribution grids

Modern power distribution grids suffer from multiple vulnerabilities due to the tight integration between the physical system and the cyber infrastructure. Sophisticated and malicious cyber attacks continue to adversely impact the grid operation leading to performance degradation, service interruption, and grid failure. State estimation plays an essential role in grid monitoring and advancing cyber-attack situational awareness. In this regard, this paper first proposes a distributed compressive sensing (CS) state estimation approach for an unobservable distribution grid. Further, the proposed distributed CS approach divides the distribution grid into sub-areas to perform local state estimation. Then an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) based iterative information exchange among neighboring areas is employed to complete the estimation process. In this estimation process, the impact of loss of measurement data, false data injection (FDI), replay, and neighborhood cyber-attacks is analyzed. Extensive simulations are performed on the IEEE 37-bus and IEEE 123-bus standard networks to demonstrate the algorithm’s robustness to the aforementioned cyber-attacks. A quantitative analysis of computational complexity and simulation time of the distributed CS based approach is also presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Organo‐Functionalized Lacunary Double Cubane‐Type Oxometallates: Synthesis, Structure, and Properties of [(M II Cl) 2 (V IV O) 2 {((HOCH 2 CH 2 )(H)N(CH 2 CH 2 O))(HN(CH 2 CH 2 O) 2 )} 2 ] (M=Co, Zn)

Abstract Organofunctionalized tetranuclear clusters [(M II Cl) 2 (V IV O) 2 {((HOCH 2 CH 2 )(H)N(CH 2 CH 2 O))(HN(CH 2 CH 2 O) 2 )} 2 ] (1, M=Co,2: M=Zn) containing an unprecedented oxometallacyclic {M 2 V 2 Cl 2 N 4 O 8 } (M=Co, Zn) framework have been prepared by solvothermal reactions. The new oxo‐alkoxide compounds were fully characterized by spectroscopic methods, magnetic susceptibility measurement, DFT and ab initio computational methods, and complete single‐crystal X‐ray diffraction structure analysis. The isostructural clusters are formed of edge‐sharing octahedral {VO 5 N} and trigonal bipyramidal {MO 3 NCl} units. Diethanolamine ligates the bimetallic lacunary double cubane core of1and2in an unusual two‐mode fashion, unobserved previously. In the crystalline state, the clusters of1and2are joined by hydrogen bonds to form a three‐dimensional network structure. Magnetic susceptibility data indicate weakly antiferromagnetic interactions between the vanadium centers [J iso (V IV −V IV )=−5.4(1); −3.9(2) cm −1 ], and inequivalent antiferromagnetic interactions between the cobalt and vanadium centers [J iso (V IV −Co II )=−12.6 and −7.5 cm −1 ] contained in1.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural insights into the unique recognition module between α-synuclein peptide and nanobody

Nanobodies are single-domain fragments of antibodies with comparable specificity and affinity to antibodies. They are emerging as versatile tools in biology due to their relatively small size. Here, we report the crystal structure of a specific nanobody Nbα-syn01, bound to a 14 amino acid long peptide of α-synuclein (αSyn), a 140-residue protein whose aggregation is associated with Parkinson's disease. The complex structure exhibits a unique binding pattern where the αSyn peptide replaces the N-terminal region of nanobody. Recognition is mediated principally by extended main chain interaction of the αSyn peptide and specificity of the interaction lies in the central 48–52 region of αSyn peptide. Structure-guided truncation of Nbα-syn01 shows tighter binding to αSyn peptide and improved inhibition of α-synuclein aggregation. The structure of the truncated complex was subsequently determined and was indistinguishable to full length complex as the full-length form had no visible electron density for the N-terminal end. These findings reveal the molecular basis for a previously unobserved binding mode for nanobody recognition of α-synuclein, providing an explanation for the enhanced binding, and potential for an alternate framework for structure-based protein engineering of nanobodies to develop better diagnostic and therapeutic tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of Directional Structural Superlubricity and Lévy Flights in a van der Waals Heterostructure

Abstract Structural superlubricity is a special frictionless contact in which two crystals are in incommensurate arrangement such that relative in‐plane translation is associated with vanishing energy barrier crossing. So far, it has been realized in multilayer graphene and other van der Waals (2D crystals with hexagonal or triangular crystalline symmetries, leading to isotropic frictionless contacts. Directional structural superlubricity, to date unrealized in 2D systems, is possible when the reciprocal lattices of the two crystals coincide in one direction only. Here, directional structural superlubricity a α‐bismuthene/graphite van der Waals system is evidenced, manifested by spontaneous hopping of the islands over hundreds of nanometers at room temperature, resolved by low‐energy electron microscopy and supported by registry simulations. Statistical analysis of individual and collective α‐bismuthene islands populations reveal a heavy‐tailed distribution of the hopping lengths and sticking times indicative of Lévy flight dynamics, largely unobserved in condensed‐matter systems.

Le Ster, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2025

The no boundary density matrix

We discuss a no-boundary proposal for a subregion of the universe. In the classical approximation, this density matrix involves finding a specific classical solution of the equations of motion with no boundary. Beyond the usual no boundary condition at early times, we also have another no boundary condition in the region we trace out. We can find the prescription by starting from the usual Hartle-Hawking proposal for the wavefunction on a full slice and tracing out the unobserved region in the classical approximation. We discuss some specific subregions and compute the corresponding solutions. These geometries lead to phenomenologically unacceptable probabilities, as expected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity to dark sector scales from gravitational wave signatures

We consider gravitational sound wave signals produced by a first-order phase transition in a theory with a generic renormalizable thermal effective potential of power law form. We find the frequency and amplitude of the gravitational wave signal can be related in a straightforward manner to the parameters of the thermal effective potential. This leads to a general conclusion; if the mass of the dark Higgs is less than 1% of the dark Higgs vacuum expectation value, then the gravitational wave signal will be unobservable at all upcoming and planned gravitational wave observatories. Although the understanding of gravitational wave production at cosmological phase transitions is still evolving, we expect this result to be robust.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interaction between the emerging components of online shopping and in-person activities: insights from a behavioral survey

The rise of technological advancements has led to the commonplace practice of online shopping for retail, grocery, and food. However, little research has been conducted on the interplay of these components in burdened communities (BCs) that face issues of marginalization and limited access to digital resources. Here, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of travel behavior changes by analyzing the interconnectedness of the emerging components of online shopping (retail, grocery, and food) and in-person activities in both BCs and non-BCs. A unique household-level database is created by linking the 2021 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey and the US Department of Transportation’s burdened community databases, and a conditional mixed process model is estimated to account for unobserved endogeneity. The findings suggest households living in BCs are less likely to order online retail goods and groceries compared to non-BC households. Additionally, the probability of making more restaurant trips decreases for households living in BCs. The study highlights the digital divide that exists in BCs and the differences in online and in-person shopping activities across socioeconomic levels. Policymakers may address these disparities to promote better access to goods and services for all. Besides, planners may need to improve the travel demand models by accounting for the emerging components of online shopping and the trip frequencies by purpose in BCs.

Digital Divide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-modal characterization of the B2 phase in the Ta-Re binary system

The energy and transportation industries demand materials that retain their mechanical property at high temperatures. Refractory complex concentrated alloys (RCCAs) with a BCC + B2 microstructure offer a potential solution, where maintaining the high temperature mechanical properties can be achieved by precipitation strengthening. This depends on the B2 phase in RCCAs being thermodynamically stable with a high solvus temperature. Recently, we predicted the high temperature stability of the B2 structure in the Ta-Re binary system, using density functional theory. Here, in this study, we provide experimental evidence for the existence of this phase for the first time, using a Ta 65 Re 35 alloy. Despite Ta-Re binary phase diagrams predicting a single-phase BCC microstructure for Ta 65 Re 35 , we show that a high Z nanoscale secondary phase appears after heat treatment at 1550 °C and 1100 °C. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) revealed that this phase has a cubic structure and is equiatomic TaRe though B2 superlattice reflections were absent in fast Fourier transforms (FFT) and diffraction patterns (DPs). DP simulations indicate that the B2 TaRe superlattice reflections are up to two orders of magnitude weaker than their fundamental reflections, making their detection challenging via electron microscopy. Neutron diffraction confirmed the second phase had a B2 structure. This study identified a previously unobserved high temperature stable B2 phase in the Ta-Re system, enabling the development of new high temperature BCC + B2 RCCAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the economic value of hydropeaking externalities in regulated rivers

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals' preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO 2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions exceed the disutility caused by increased CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Universal method for the optimization of HDC coating uniformity on non-planar, non-stationary substrates for inertial confinement fusion targets

The thickness uniformity of chemical vapor deposited (CVD) diamond coatings on non-planar, non-stationary substrates depends on both the intrinsic instantaneous coating thickness distribution (ICTD) of the coating conditions used and, if applicable, on the frequency of substrate reorientation. While important for many CVD diamond applications, the relative impact of the ICTD and substrate reorientation on the coating thickness uniformity has not been studied. In this work, we systematically investigate the effect of these factors for microwave-plasma chemical vapor deposition (MPCVD) of diamond (referred to as high density carbon (HDC) in the inertial confinement fusion (ICF) community) coatings on spherical, rolling substrates. This coating technique is used to fabricate capsules for ICF experiments, which require extreme coating uniformity with <0.3 % thickness variation (so-called Mode 1 or M1) to ensure symmetric compression of imploding targets. To extract the otherwise unobservable reorientation timescale (Δt), Monte Carlo simulations were performed using experimental ICTD data as input. This combined approach confirms scaling relationships between the substrate reorientation timescale as well as coating thickness and coating uniformity, as expected from a 3D random walk. Simulations confirm that M1 is Rayleigh-distributed and scales as (Δt) 1/2 , consistent with the randomization of two angles that determine orientation of a sphere. We also demonstrate that, under the conditions studied, Δt is the dominant factor in determining thickness uniformity while the intrinsic ICTD has minimal impact. Finally, experiments show that Δt can be affected by total batch size under constant agitation conditions due to space constraints that limit the capsule reorientation kinetics. In conclusion, this study highlights the utility of a combined experiment-simulation approach as a general methodology for understanding and improving coating uniformity on non-planar, non-stationary substrates.

Capsule↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised probabilistic models for sequential Electronic Health Records

We develop an unsupervised probabilistic model for heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Utilizing a mixture model formulation, our approach directly models sequences of arbitrary length, such as medications and laboratory results. This allows for subgrouping and incorporation of the dynamics underlying heterogeneous data types. The model consists of a layered set of latent variables that encode underlying structure in the data. These variables represent subject subgroups at the top layer, and unobserved states for sequences in the second layer. We train this model on episodic data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The resulting properties of the trained model generate novel insight from these complex and multifaceted data. In addition, we show how the model can be used to analyze sequences that contribute to assessment of mortality likelihood.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Benefits in Remapping the Special Flood Hazard Area: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

A typical U.S. homebuyer's understanding of whether a property faces flood risk is based on whether the property is located inside the National Flood Insurance Program's (NFIP) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). The SFHA boundary, however, may bias homebuyers’ perceptions of flood risk relative to unobserved true risk because the SFHA is an incomplete, and sometimes inaccurate, representation of flood hazards. Using a national dataset of property transactions, flood hazard data from the First Street Foundation, state-level measures of flood disclosure laws, and a spatially restricted triple-difference design, we distinguish capitalization effects of policy-driven (SFHA) versus quasi-objective (First Street) indicators of flood hazard. We identify these effects by assessing thousands of local spatial interactions between property SFHA designations, measures of quasi-objective flood hazard, and being in a state that mandates flood history disclosures. Being inside the SFHA generates a risk discount, but the signal is muted relative to underlying hazard exposure. Further, the SFHA signal can result in inefficient discounts for properties erroneously mapped in the SFHA. Disclosure requirements about flood history accentuate price effects for hazardous properties and result in more adequate risk internalization. In the absence of disclosures, however, we find either no or a weak risk signal for houses outside the SFHA that face flood hazard. Our results highlight potential benefits of updating SFHA boundaries to include all houses that may experience flooding, and argue in favor of requiring flood-related disclosures from sellers to improve the market's ability to internalize flood risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase transformations and thermal expansion coefficients of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) measured via neutron diffraction

This work characterizes the crystallographic evolution of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) while cooling from equilibration, single phase γ-U-Zr, at 900 °C to ambient temperature using time-of-flight neutron diffraction. The β-U phase was unobserved during cooling at 1 °C/min in all alloys. All alloys followed the phase transformation pathway of γ-U-Zr→γ-U-Zr+α-U→α-U +δ-UZr2 with an observed miscibility gap in γ-U-Zr. The α-U and δ-UZr2 transformation took place simultaneously in the U-30 wt.% Zr sample. These findings strengthen the need to re-approach the U-Zr phase diagram in entirety. Bulk volumetric CTEs agree well with published data, strengthening the quantification of lattice-specific CTEs reported in this study. A compositionally dependent discontinuity in thermal expansion, increasing in magnitude with decreasing U content, occurs during the γ-U-Zr→α-U+δ-UZr2 transformation. The γ-U-Zr lattice parameter was measured to have a compositional dependency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗