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At least 55 records · Page 3

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

Abstract The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Programmed cell death regulator BAP2 is required for IRE1-mediated unfolded protein response in Arabidopsis

Environmental and physiological situations can challenge the balance between protein synthesis and folding capacity of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and cause ER stress, a potentially lethal condition. The unfolded protein response (UPR) restores ER homeostasis or actuates programmed cell death (PCD) when ER stress is unresolved. The cell fate determination mechanisms of the UPR are not well understood, especially in plants. Here, we integrate genetics and ER stress profiling with natural variation and quantitative trait locus analysis of 350 natural accessions of the model species Arabidopsis thaliana . Our analyses implicate a single nucleotide polymorphism to the loss of function of the general PCD regulator BON-ASSOCIATED PROTEIN2 (BAP2) in UPR outcomes. We establish that ER stress-induced BAP2 expression is antagonistically regulated by the UPR master regulator, inositol-requiring enzyme 1 (IRE1), and that BAP2 controls adaptive UPR amplitude in ER stress and ignites pro-death mechanisms in conditions of UPR insufficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable measurement error mitigation via iterative bayesian unfolding

Measurement errors are a significant obstacle to achieving scalable quantum computation. To counteract systematic readout errors, researchers have developed postprocessing techniques known as measurement error mitigation methods. However, these methods face a tradeoff between scalability and returning nonnegative probabilities. In this paper, we present a solution to overcome this challenge. Our approach focuses on iterative Bayesian unfolding, a standard mitigation technique used in high-energy physics experiments, and implements it in a scalable way. We demonstrate our method on experimental Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger state preparation on up to 127 qubits and on the Bernstein-Vazirani algorithm on up to 26 qubits. Compared to state-of-the-art methods (such as M3), our implementation guarantees valid probability distributions, returns comparable or better-mitigated results, and does so without a noticeable time and memory overhead. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Pokharel, Bibek (ORCID:0000000342841353)↗

Validation and Verification of Python based Neutron Spectrum Unfolding Software

To validate and verify the python-based code (PySL), designed to replicate the programs used by STAYSL for Beam Correction Factor (BCF) and Self-Shielding Factor (SHIELD), a series of tests were performed. To test BCF a python script was written to generate a random flux history file and both versions of the code processed the data. The test verified matching values up to at least one decimal place, approximately 10,000 tests where run and each one passed. Isotopes began to fail the tests once neutron saturation was reached. To verify this the total time of exposure was varied the isotopes that failed were compared to a list of their half-lives. The test process for SHIELD was very similar but, in this case, the code began by producing an input file with varying thickness and device type/environment for the SHIELD input. The failure condition for this test was if any of the data points for an isotope had a difference above 3%. Approximately 40 of these tests were run and there were only 3 isotopes that had reoccurring failures but only 2% of their points were above the 3% difference. A visual comparison was conducted by plotting the results from both programs. Although the test failed, the differences between their values were minuscule, and the self-shielding factor’s shape was preserved when plotted. Next steps for this project will be validating and verifying the python-based SigPhi code and then reproducing and testing the least squares unfolding performed by STAYSL.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Unfolded Protein Response Inhibition Reduces Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-Induced Acute Lung Injury

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe atypical pneumonia in infected individuals, but the underlying mechanisms of pathogenesis remain unknown. While much has been learned from the few reported autopsy cases, an in-depth understanding of the cells targeted by MERS-CoV in the human lung and their relative contribution to disease outcomes is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Rocks, water, and noble liquids: Unfolding the flavor contents of supernova neutrinos

Measuring core-collapse supernova neutrinos, both from individual supernovae within the Milky Way and from past core collapses throughout the Universe (the diffuse supernova neutrino background, or DSNB), is one of the main goals of current and next generation neutrino experiments. Detecting the heavy-lepton flavor (muon and tau types, collectively v x ) component of the flux is particularly challenging due to small statistics and large backgrounds. Further, while the next galactic neutrino burst will be observed in a plethora of neutrino channels, allowing us to measure a small number of v x events, only upper limits are anticipated for the diffuse v x flux even after decades of data taking with conventional detectors. However, paleo detectors could measure the time-integrated flux of neutrinos from galactic core-collapse supernovae via flavor-blind neutral current interactions. In this work, we show how combining a measurement of the average galactic core-collapse supernova flux with paleo detectors and measurements of the DSNB electron-type neutrino fluxes with the next-generation water Cherenkov detector Hyper-Kamiokande and the liquid noble gas detector DUNE will allow to determine the mean supernova vx flux parameters with precision of order ten percent. Realizing this potential requires both the cosmic supernova rate out to z~1 and the integrated Galactic supernova rate over the last ~1 Gyr to be established at the ~10% level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unfolding Structure Formation in the Dark Universe via Weak Gravitational Lensing: from Pixels to Cosmology in the Dark Energy Survey and Roman Space Telescope

Weak gravitational lensing (deflection of light from distant galaxies due to the gravitational potential of intervening mass) is one of the most exciting probes in cosmology as it is sensitive both to the growth of the large-scale structure and the expansion history of the Universe. We can measure the coherent distortion of galaxy shapes (which we call cosmic shear) and infer the matter distribution. With next-generation imaging surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin LSST) and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope (Roman), there is immense new promise in understanding the fundamental nature of dark matter and dark energy. With datasets from current experiments like the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we see apparent cosmological tensions between experiments that may either be real and indicate new physics or new systematics we do not yet understand. LSST and Roman will increase the number of galaxies we have observed by an order of magnitude, leading to improved constraints on our cosmological model by up to 300%. These experiments will have the potential to prove if these cosmological tensions are real. However, our control of systematic uncertainties must also improve by similar levels to achieve the promise of what these missions can deliver. To achieve these scientific outcomes, the challenges of determining galaxy shapes and redshifts and modeling the impact of astrophysical effects must be solved. My PhD has focused on enabling weak lensing science in DES and Roman. I co-led the shear analysis teams in DES to produce the largest weak lensing galaxy sample, as well as the final DES cosmological analysis of cosmic shear. For Roman, I have led two papers characterizing and mitigating shear-related systematics with image simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Flux Wire Selection on Neutron Spectrum Adjustment

In reactor dosimetry, spectrum unfolding methods are used to assess the energy-dependent neutron flux following the irradiation of flux wires or foils. For some spectrum unfolding methods, an a priori, or initial guess, spectrum is necessary. However, if the a priori spectrum is not representative of the irradiation spectrum experienced by the flux wires, the spectrum unfolding method may fail or create a nonphysical adjusted spectrum. The unfolded spectrum is dependent on flux wire reaction rates, and therefore cross section. As a result, each selection or combination of flux wires will have a different sensitivity to the group-wise fluence difference between the a priori spectrum and the irradiation spectrum. Therefore, a selection of flux wires that are insensitive to errors in the a priori spectrum would be considered robust choices for reactor dosimetry. In this work, flux wire reaction rates are calculated using a simulated neutron spectrum from the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and spectrum unfolding methods are used in each flux wire combinations. The flux wire combinations are compared against a traditional flux wire set of Ti, Fe, and Co, with a summary table of the deemed “good” wire combinations that are insensitive to number of a priori neutron energy groups, group-wise difference between the a priori and irradiation, and magnitude of difference.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Optimising Foil Selection for Neutron Activation Systems

Abstract Neutron spectrum unfolding using activation foils is currently the primary technique planned for measuring the neutron energy spectrum at the first wall of power-generating fusion reactors. Room for improvement in the effectiveness of current foil selection was identified, and a program produced to select foils procedurally in order to maximise the accuracy of the unfolding procedure. Using Kullback–Leibler Divergence to quantify the accuracy, the spectrum unfolded by the procedurally selected set of foils is found to be more accurate than the spectrum unfolded by a set of foils used in the literature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Introduction, Investigation, and Experimental Validation of a Novel Passive Neutron Spectrometer

Unfolding neutron energy spectra are instrumental for determining personal health effects and calculating dose received. This area of study is heavily researched, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is investigating a passive neutron spectrometer for the purpose of acquiring the information needed to determine personnel dose in the event of a criticality accident. A part of this investigation is presented in this article through the examination of four experimental detector responses (DRs). These four DRs were acquired in the presence of 252 Cf, AmBe, GODIVA, and National Ignition Facility (NIF) neutron sources. An algorithm developed at LLNL was used to unfold the neutron fluence from each of the four DRs, and subsequently, fluence-to-dose conversion factors provided by the American National Standards Institute were used to calculate dose. Additionally, a multistep unfolding process was developed and employed to calculate the effects of both direct (from the source) and indirect (from room return) neutrons. The average error when unfolding the direct DR was less than 8%. The dose from 252 Cf was predicted with only 8% error. The multistep approach allowed for the identification of the low-energy neutrons in the 252 Cf, AmBe, and NIF DRs.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗