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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-based Similarity Metrics for New Experiment Design Optimization

The nuclear data used in advanced reactor simulations requires validation. Data from nuclear criticality experiments can provide this validation. New nuclear criticality experiment design requires extensive knowledge and expert judgement such that the experimental design parameters are selected in such a way to keep the experiment subcritical. To aide in this experimental design process, professionals can utilize sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis relies on matching new application experiments with currently existing benchmark experiments. Currently, there is functionality in the Whisper 1.1 software package to calculate a similarity metric based on neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients between a new application designed by the user and existing International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. The Whisper 1.1 software package is included in Monte Carlo N-Particle ® Code Version 6.21 (MCNP ® 6.2). This work is geared toward expanding this capability to new similarity metrics based on beta-effective sensitivity coefficients and reactivity coefficient sensitivity coefficients. While the investigation of these sensitivity coefficients is presented in detail in separate works at this same conference, this work will be primarily focused on studying the similarity metrics in more detail. These similarity metrics will then be incorporated into the optimization algorithms used for experiment design in EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data), which is a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) project designed to constrain nuclear data of interest, such that adjustments can be made to possible inaccuracies. A more detailed optimization can be subsequently performed by breaking down these similarity metrics by isotope, reaction, and energy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty) is a technique for estimating the uncertainty in a model's predictions for any regression task by approximating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model's errors over the course of training. The approximated CDF, combined with a similarity search algorithm in the model's descriptor space, can then be used to estimate the likelihood that the model's predictions on any given test point will fall below a chosen threshold. LTAU-FF (LTAU in atomistic Force Fields) is the application of LTAU specifically for use with atomistic force fields.

Vita, JoshuaA↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Modeling Toolkit for Comparing AC and DC Electrical Distribution Efficiency in Buildings

Recently, there has been considerable research interest in the potential for DC distribution systems in buildings instead of the traditional AC distribution systems. Due to the need for performing power conversions between DC and AC electricity, DC distribution may provide electrical efficiency advantages in some systems. To support comparative evaluations of AC-only, DC-only, and hybrid AC/DC distribution systems in buildings, a new modeling toolkit called the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) was developed and is described in this paper. To account for harmonics in currents or voltages arising from nonlinear devices, the toolkit implements harmonic power flow, along with nonlinear device behavioral descriptions derived from empirical measurements. This paper describes the framework, network equations, device representations, and an implementation of the toolkit in an open source software package, including a component library and graphical interface for creating circuits. Simulations of electrical behavior and device and system efficiencies using the toolkit are compared with experimental measurements of a small office environment in a variety of operating and load configurations. A detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation is also provided. Key findings were that a comparison of predicted versus measured efficiencies and power losses in the validation testbed using the initial toolkit implementation predicted device- and system-level efficiencies with reasonably good accuracy under both balanced and unbalanced AC scenarios. An uncertainty analysis also revealed that the maximum estimated error for system efficiency across all scenarios was 3%, and measured and modeled system efficiency agreed within the experimental uncertainty in approximately half of the scenarios. Based on the correspondence between simulation and measurement, the toolkit is proposed by the authors as a potentially useful tool for comparing efficiency in AC, DC, and hybrid AC/DC distribution systems in buildings.

DC distribution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based economic analysis under uncertainty for PFAS treatment by granular activated carbon and ion exchange technologies

Recent drinking water regulations have imposed the need for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) remediation. In response, treatment facilities may be required to retrofit existing treatment schemes to treat PFAS below maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Adsorption technologies such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange (IX) have been demonstrated to be effective; however, there are limited techno-economic metrics available which provide guidance on technology selection and design for diverse PFAS-containing source water conditions. Process systems engineering (PSE) tools which can traditionally perform these analyses are hindered by the data availability, model validity, and understanding of treatment phenomena for emerging contaminants. This work employs published data regressions, statistical models, process models, techno-economic analyses, and other process systems tools in a model-based uncertainty framework to consider the limitations of emerging contaminant research. Through this analysis framework, economic results are provided as probabilistic distributions based on the uncertainty of the models and diverse conditions that treatment facilities experience.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state thermal hydraulic analyses. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as MITR-II. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model common fabrication parameters and other key reactor analysis uncertainties required for research and test reactor thermal hydraulic analyses. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux or departure from nucleate boiling or onset of flow instability; but additional margin is obtained by basing the limiting safety settings on avoiding onset of nucleate boiling. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one lateral stripe of a fuel element. The stripes run the length of the fuel, from the bottom to the top. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each element in the core.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. I. Inverse Lagrangian analysis

Absolute measurements of solid-material compressibility by magnetically driven shockless dynamic compression experiments to multi-megabar pressures have the potential to greatly improve the accuracy and precision of pressure calibration standards for use in diamond anvil cell experiments. Here, to this end, we apply characteristics-based inverse Lagrangian analysis (ILA) to 11 sets of ramp-compression data on pure platinum (Pt) metal and then reduce the resulting weighted-mean stress–strain curve to the principal isentrope and room-temperature isotherm using simple models for yield stress and Grüneisen parameter. We introduce several improvements to methods for ILA and quasi-isentrope reduction, the latter including calculation of corrections in wave speed instead of stress and pressure to render results largely independent of initial yield stress while enforcing thermodynamic consistency near zero pressure. More importantly, we quantify in detail the propagation of experimental uncertainty through ILA and model uncertainty through quasi-isentrope reduction, considering all potential sources of error except the electrode and window material models used in ILA. Compared to previous approaches, we find larger uncertainty in longitudinal stress. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that uncertainty in the yield-stress model constitutes by far the largest contribution to uncertainty in quasi-isentrope reduction corrections. We present a new room-temperature isotherm for Pt up to 444 GPa, with 1-sigma uncertainty at that pressure of just under ±1.2%; the latter is about a factor of three smaller than uncertainty previously reported for multi-megabar ramp-compression experiments on Pt. The result is well represented by a Vinet-form compression curve with (isothermal) bulk modulus K 0 = 270.3 ± 3.8 GPa, pressure derivative K$^{'}_{0}$= 5.66 ± 0.10, and correlation coefficient $R_{K_{0},K^{'}_{0}}$= –0.843.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Effect of Surface Platinum–Tin Alloys on Propane Dehydrogenation on Platinum–Tin Catalysts

Uncertainty analysis, reported experimental literature data, and density functional theory were synthesized to model the effect of surface tin coverage on platinum-based catalysts for nonoxidative propane dehydrogenation to propylene. Here, this study tests four different platinum–tin skin surface models as potential catalytic sites, Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100), PtSn/Pt(100), Pt 3 Sn/Pt(111), and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211), and compares them to the corresponding pure Pt surface sites using an uncertainty analysis methodology that uses BEEF-vdW with its ensembles (BMwE) to generate the uncertainty for the energies of the intermediates and transition states. One experimental data set with two experimental observations, selectivity to propylene and turnover frequency of propylene, was used as a calibration data set to evaluate the impact of the experimental data on informing the models. This study finds that the prior model for Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100) is the most active and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) is the most selective toward propylene. Active sites on the (100) facet have the highest probability of being responsible for C 1 and C 2 product formations (C–C bond cleavage). Increasing the Sn coverage on the (100) surface facet to a PtSn/Pt(100) active site leads to a significantly reduced rate and might explain the experimentally observed higher selectivity of Sn-doped catalysts relative to pure Pt catalysts. Next, this study finds that for all surfaces, except PtSn/Pt(100), the rate-controlling steps are the initial dehydrogenation steps alongside some partially rate-controlling second dehydrogenation steps. For PtSn/Pt(100), only the initial terminal dehydrogenation step to CH 3 CH 2 CH 2 * and second dehydrogenation steps are rate-controlling. Next, the calibrated models for all surfaces were found to be selective toward propylene production and model the reported turnover frequency successfully. Nevertheless, Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) emerges as the active site with some (minor) evidence as the main active site based on Jeffreys’ scale interpretation of Bayes factors. This observation agrees with prior studies that also found step sites to be most likely the most relevant active sites for pure Pt catalysts. Overall, the results indicate that tin, in addition to affecting the binding strength of the adsorbed species, prevents deeper dehydrogenation (reducing coking) and cracking reactions through increasing activation barriers for unwanted side reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗
DOE OSTI2022

SCALE Sensitivity Tutorial [Slides]

In sensitivity analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which fundamental data (i.e., nuclear data) influence a system’s response. In uncertainty analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which uncertainty in fundamental data contributes to uncertainty in a system’s response. In SCALE, the TSUNAMI suite provides tools for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, similarity analysis, and nuclear data and covariance adjustment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗