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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: 2025

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of pressure points in modern power systems using transfer entropy

Power shortages disrupt daily life, economic activity, and essential services. In modern power systems, weather is an increasingly important driver of reliability: high temperatures raise demand and limit transmission capacity, and calm or cloudy periods reduce wind and solar supply. Using a data-driven analysis, this study identifies grid infrastructure whose operating patterns help predict power shortages. The results show that reliability risks often emerge from interacting stresses across generation, transmission, and demand, rather than from single bottlenecks. By clarifying how system stress propagates through the grid, this diagnostic perspective helps explain why shortages occur under specific conditions and can complement traditional planning and operational tools to support adaptive reliability strategies, targeted monitoring, and coordinated infrastructure investments.

power systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Stage Modeling With Recourse Decisions for Solving Stochastic Complementarity Problems With an Application in Energy

This paper presents a multi-stage model with recourse decisions for solving complementarity problems in a competitive electricity market under uncertainty, while also considering renewable energy technologies and battery storage utilization. The model is based on a Nash-Cournot formulation of imperfect competition among power producers. We analyze the value of variable renewable energy (VRE) and battery storage under different uncertainties, such as demand level and VRE availability. To illustrate the proposed model, we apply it to three- bus five-player model and analyze different cases varying costs, including a user-optimal perspective (with market power) and a system-optimal perspective (with central planning). We also consider the potential for congestion in the system by restricting the transmission capacity between a single interface that connects two buses. Our findings show that increasing the battery storage capacity results in a decrease in the need for perfect information about future uncertainties. Additionally, as the model allows for more uncertainty, it becomes more apparent that the stochastic mixed complementarity problem (MCP) has an advantage over a deterministic equivalent. We propose the use of the Value of the Stochastic Equilibrium Solution (VSES) as a quality metric to compare the stochastic MCP with its deterministic equivalent. Overall, expanding battery storage capacity can lower the maximum, mean, and variance values of delivered prices, but there are diminishing returns to this approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Transmission Technologies –GETs and HPCs Session 3: HPCs and Building Actions Plans to Digital Assurance Risks

The third session of the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) program, held on November 11, 2025, centered on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and the formulation of action plans to address digital assurance risks associated with Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs). This session convened experts from utilities, vendors, and government agencies to examine the technical, operational, and cybersecurity aspects of HPC deployment. Discussions highlighted the benefits of HPCs, such as their ability to rapidly increase transmission capacity using existing corridors, improve grid resilience, reduce system losses, and align with FERC Orders 2023 and 1920. Participants evaluated supply chain and digital assurance risks, including reliance on imported materials, limited domestic manufacturing capacity, workforce shortages, and traceability issues. The session also emphasized the importance of digital trust, integration-layer cybersecurity, and unified risk frameworks, introducing tools like intrusion detection systems, encryption, zero trust networking, and firmware integrity. Recaps of earlier workshops on Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs), Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC), and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO) underscored institutional barriers and integration challenges. Action plans were proposed to mitigate issues such as inconsistent cybersecurity practices, SBOM usage, supply chain visibility, operator trust, and misaligned incentives. Additionally, INL presented its supply chain risk management tools and Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles to support secure procurement and system design. The session concluded with a commitment to share key takeaways, incorporate cohort feedback into future policy development, and continue collaborative engagement through upcoming pilot activities. Session 3 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Too Much of a Good Thing? Global Trends in the Curtailment of Solar PV

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. However, PV curtailment is increasing as PV composes greater shares of grid capacity. In this paper, we present a novel synthesis of curtailment in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in these countries in 2018. We find that: Policy and grid planning practices influence where, when, and how much PV is curtailed; Some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting remote solar resources to load centers; PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. We discuss available measures to reduce PV curtailment as well as increasing PV curtailment in the contexts of evolving grids and energy technologies.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generator Interconnection Costs to the Transmission System in non-ISO Balancing Authorities [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators—including Independent System Operators (ISOs), Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), and utilities—require proposed power plants to undergo a series of interconnection studies before connecting to the grid. These studies assess what transmission upgrades or new infrastructure may be necessary and assign the associated costs to the project. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection cost data, originally for ISOs/RTOs, and now for five non-ISO Balancing Authorities: PacifiCorp, Bonneville Power Authority, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Florida. Insufficient transparency in interconnection cost data may contribute to rapidly expanding interconnection queues, with active queue capacities tripling between 2020 and 2024 in the studied BAs. Most projects withdraw after receiving high interconnection cost estimates. Interconnection costs have increased since the early 2000s, with average costs for "complete" projects reaching $194/kW between 2018 and 2024. Active queue projects and withdrawn projects incur substantially higher costs, primarily due to rising network upgrade costs. Recent interconnection costs in non-ISO balancing authorities are higher than in ISO regions, potentially due to a greater willingness to pay among developers. Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects have interconnection costs that exceed those for natural gas. However, when focusing on projects that do not withdraw from the queue, the interconnection costs for these technologies are more similar to natural gas projects. Other key findings include: (1) Larger generation projects benefit from lower proportional interconnection costs, (2) capacity transmission service (NRIS) often requires additional network investments, and (3) projects with high network upgrade costs are often clustered geographically. The dataset includes results from 2,104 interconnection studies conducted between 2000 and 2024, covering projects that are operational, withdrawn, or still progressing through the study process. The Excel file contains (a) the complete project-level interconnection cost dataset, and (b) seven additional tabs summarizing cost metrics across dimensions such as time, market structure, cost category (point of interconnection vs. broader network upgrades), fuel type, service type (ERIS vs. NRIS), generator size, and geography.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anomaly Detection and Mitigation for Wide-Area Damping Control using Machine Learning

In an interconnected multi-area power system, wide-area measurement based damping controllers are used to damp out inter-area oscillations, which jeopardize grid stability and constrain the power flows below to their transmission capacity. The effect of wide-area damping control (WADC) significantly depends on both power and cyber systems. At the cyber system layer, an adversary can inflict the WADC process by compromising either measurement signals, control signals or both. Stealthy and coordinated cyber-attacks may bypass the conventional cybersecurity measures to disrupt the seamless operation of WADC. This paper proposes an anomaly detection (AD) algorithm using supervised Machine Learning and a model-based logic for mitigation. The proposed AD algorithm considers measurement signals (input of WADC) and control signals (output of WADC) as input to evaluate the type of activity such as normal, perturbation (small or large signal faults), attack and perturbation-and-attack. Upon anomaly detection, the mitigation module tunes the WADC signal and sets the control status mode as either wide-area mode or local mode. The proposed anomaly detection and mitigation (ADM) module works inline with the WADC at the control center for attack detection on both measurement and control signals and eliminates the need for ADMs at the geographically distributed actuators. Here, we consider coordinated and primitive data-integrity attack vectors such as pulse, ramp, relay-trip and replay attacks. The performance of the proposed ADM algorithms was evaluated under these attack vector scenarios on a testbed environment for 2-area 4-machine power system. The ADM module shows effective performance with 96:5% accuracy to detect anomalies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of curtailment at The Geysers geothermal Field, California

Geothermal energy has traditionally been viewed as a baseload energy source, but the rapid growth of intermittent renewable energy has led to a need for more flexibility in power generation to avoid mandatory curtailment imposed by grid operators. This study of curtailment at The Geysers provides insights into the magnitude, duration, frequency, temporal and spatial distribution, and potential causes of curtailment events between 2013 and 2018. Annual levels of curtailment range during this period from 9 to 47 GW h, representing 0.15 to 0.81 % of the net generation. Most curtailments occurred at the power plants connected to a lower capacity transmission line and may result from transmission constriction. There is a clear link between negative pricing and economic curtailment, especially when solar production is higher. Economic curtailment events tend to be only a few hours and vary in magnitude up to almost 300 MW, whereas transmission-related curtailment events can be up to several weeks in duration. It is likely that curtailment of geothermal power will be an increasing concern, and could be mitigated by flexible generation strategies and increases in energy storage. It is critical to know the nature of curtailment events so that flexible generation options can be assessed properly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Modular Integration Design of LCL Circuit Featuring Field Enhancement and Misalignment Tolerance for Wireless EV Charging

One of the major challenges of high-order wireless charging circuit is to reduce the system volume and cost induced by its additional components. Based on an LCL-S circuit, this paper proposes a modular integration design, in which an identical compensation inductor and transmitter are closely coupled. A new compensation method is derived to enable zero phase angle (ZPA) and constant current (CC) output. Identical currents are fed into the same reference terminals of both inductors to enable transmission field enhancement and to eliminate reactive power flow between the inductors. A misalignment tolerant coil is used to improve the output power stability under random parking imperfection. The proposed integration design achieves enhanced transmission capacity. Experiments are carried out to verify the proposed design.

Zhang, Pengcheng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-Simulation Model for Optimal Wind-Hydro Coordination Using Wind Farm Control Dynamics

The growing share of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRES) in power systems presents challenges for regula- tors, grid operators and energy producers. The VRES’ operation has limited flexibility in their operations, as they are highly dependent on ambient environments. To address these challenges, decision-makers must consider multiple objectives, among these are revenue, power system services and mechanical load on wind turbines. Coordinated operation of power plants and different wind farm control strategies are examples of measures that can benefit these objectives. This study proposes a Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to simulate the optimum operation of wind and hydropower plants that share limited transmission capacity. Further, wind farm control dynamics are included to obtain realistic output power and accumulated damage. From this, a case study based on a relevant location in Norway is presented to analyze the improved effect of wind- hydro coordination and wind farm control in achieving the objectives of accumulated wind turbine damage and total revenue of the hybrid power system. In addition, the study considers the potential advantages of adding a variable-speed pump to the hydropower plant. The results demonstrate that by considering multiple objectives in the optimization, one may achieve better overall performance of the objectives. By utilizing the flexibility of hydro storage, the decision maker may adjust to obtain the most desired outcome. Moreover, the added flexibility of utilizing a pump for hydro storage shows great improvements for the combined revenue of the power plants and reduced curtailment of the wind farm. However, less impact is observed from using a variable speed pump compared to a fixed speed pump.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamics of signal transduction systems and fluctuation theorem in a signal cascade

Biochemical chain reactions are signal transduction cascades that can transmit biological information about the intracellular environment. In this study, we modelled a chain reaction as a code string for applying information theory. Herein, we assumed that cell signal transduction selects a strategy to maximize the transduced signal per signal event duration. To investigate the same, we calculated the information transmission capacity of the reaction chain by maximizing the average entropy production rate per reaction time, indicating the idea of the entropy coding method. Moreover, we defined a signal cascade trajectory. Subsequently, we found that the logarithm of the forward and reverse transition ratio per reaction time is equal to the entropy production rate, which derives the form of the fluctuation theorem in signal transduction. Our findings suggest the application of information entropy theory for analysing signal transduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗