Trajectory planning under environmental uncertainty with finite-sample safety guarantees
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Vasileios Lefkopoulos↗
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Results for “trajectory uncertainty”
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Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation
This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.
air traffic control↗
Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments
Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.
Material response↗
Effect of trajectory, guidance, and environmental parameters and uncertainties on the design optimization of the out-of-orbit Viking soft lander
Trajectory, guidance and environmental parameters and uncertainties effect on design optimization of out-of-orbit Viking soft lander
Mukhopadhyay, A. K.↗
Development of the X-33 Aerodynamic Uncertainty Model
An aerodynamic uncertainty model for the X-33 single-stage-to-orbit demonstrator aircraft has been developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The model is based on comparisons of historical flight test estimates to preflight wind-tunnel and analysis code predictions of vehicle aerodynamics documented during six lifting-body aircraft and the Space Shuttle Orbiter flight programs. The lifting-body and Orbiter data were used to define an appropriate uncertainty magnitude in the subsonic and supersonic flight regions, and the Orbiter data were used to extend the database to hypersonic Mach numbers. The uncertainty data consist of increments or percentage variations in the important aerodynamic coefficients and derivatives as a function of Mach number along a nominal trajectory. The uncertainty models will be used to perform linear analysis of the X-33 flight control system and Monte Carlo mission simulation studies. Because the X-33 aerodynamic uncertainty model was developed exclusively using historical data rather than X-33 specific characteristics, the model may be useful for other lifting-body studies.
Cobleigh, Brent R.↗
Spatial and Temporal Deconfliction of Trajectories in the Presence of Uncertainties
Demonstration of conflict-free movement for multi-agent teams in challenging scenarios is crucial in developing trust and trustworthiness in an autonomous transport system. Tolerance verification queries are explored as a mechanism to enforce spatial and temporal deconfliction for a cooperating team of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) with prescribed heterogeneous path-following performance. Obstacles in the environment are modelled as set of polyhedra, whereas each vehicle’s trajectory is represented as a sequence of polynomial curves with C2 continuity, expressed in a Bernstein basis. Each vehicle is modelled as a point mass and a safety distance, informed by the geometry of the UAS and the worst-case path-following error. This defines a tube around the trajectories where each UAS is most likely to fly through. In addition, obstacles in the environment have an associated safety buffer around them to account for the uncertainty in their location and geometric description. The tolerance verification queries explored in this paper combine the safety distance information from each UAS and environmental hazard to compute trajectories that are contained within the safe configuration space. Tolerance verification is also compared with other proximity queries to determine the suitability of each method along the different steps of the trajectory generation algorithm. This paper analyzes the fitness and performance of three proximity queries – collision, tolerance verification, and distance computations – between polyhedral and polynomial curves to ensure deconfliction between obstacles and vehicles, but also between polynomial curves to guarantee safe separation among cooperating UAS.
trajectory generation↗
Effect of trajectory, guidance, and environmental parameters and uncertainties on the design optimization of a planetary landing vehicle.
Planetary landing vehicle design optimization, considering effects of trajectory, guidance and environmental parameters under uncertainty
Mukhopadhyay, A. K.↗
Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel Reconstruction Using an Extended Kalman Filter Framework
- Problem Statement: - Magnetic Suspension Balance System (MSBS) allows operation of wind tunnels without sting effect - Small-scale MSBS system has been demonstrated; NASA is building a full-scale MSBS wind tunnel for supersonic speeds - MSBS testing can provide data that addresses mission needs; current data reconstruction methods do not combine all measurement data - Reconstruction methods for aerodynamic coefficients and their uncertainties are piecemeal, and in their infancy - Mission Need: - Enhancement of Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology during atmospheric flight is a top priority - Accurate dynamic aerodynamic coefficients are necessary for stability and control of entry vehicles - Goal: - Develop an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based framework to do reduction of MSBS data that will estimate aerodynamics, trajectory, and uncertainty information, combining data sources from the tunnel
Christopher D. Karlgaard↗
Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System
This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.
air traffic control↗
Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System
This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.
air traffic control↗
Urban Area Unmanned Aerial Systems Sensor Capabilities for Ensuring Ground Hazards Safety
Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) in urban areas can pose significant safety risks to dynamic ground objects (DGOs) such as people, pets, and bikes; especially for off-nominal emergency traverses and landings. This paper will examine a framework for evaluating the UAS safety benefits which can be achieved by classifying DGO hazards, modeling their behavior, and assigning collision costs. DGOs are assumed to be any ground objects which are either moving or capable of moving. Safety benefits will be assessed by analyzing metrics computed from UAS and DGO trajectories which take into account intent and uncertainties. This paper will establish the theoretical relationships mapping these trajectories and DGO classifications to safety levels. Sensor capabilities will be mapped to DGO trajectory uncertainties, so that safety can be directly estimated from the sensor specifications for a given UAS trajectory.
Bouyssounouse, Xavier↗
Space Trajectory Error Analysis Program (STEAP) for halo orbit missions. Volume 2: Programmer's manual
The six month effort was responsible for the development, test, conversion, and documentation of computer software for the mission analysis of missions to halo orbits about libration points in the earth-sun system. The software consisting of two programs called NOMNAL and ERRAN is part of the Space Trajectories Error Analysis Programs. The program NOMNAL targets a transfer trajectory from earth on a given launch date to a specified halo orbit on a required arrival date. Either impulsive or finite thrust insertion maneuvers into halo orbit are permitted by the program. The transfer trajectory is consistent with a realistic launch profile input by the user. The second program ERRAN conducts error analyses of the targeted transfer trajectory. Measurements including range, doppler, star-planet angles, and apparent planet diameter are processed in a Kalman-Schmidt filter to determine the trajectory knowledge uncertainty.
Byrnes, D. V.↗
Design of a Multi-mode Flight Deck Decision Support System for Airborne Conflict Management
NASA Langley has developed a multi-mode decision support system for pilots operating in a Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) environment. An Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP) assists pilots in performing separation assurance functions, including conflict detection, prevention, and resolution. Ongoing AOP design has been based on a comprehensive human factors analysis and evaluation results from previous human-in-the-loop experiments with airline pilot test subjects. AOP considers complex flight mode interactions and provides flight guidance to pilots consistent with the current aircraft control state. Pilots communicate goals to AOP by setting system preferences and actively probing potential trajectories for conflicts. To minimize training requirements and improve operational use, AOP design leverages existing alerting philosophies, displays, and crew interfaces common on commercial aircraft. Future work will consider trajectory prediction uncertainties, integration with the TCAS collision avoidance system, and will incorporate enhancements based on an upcoming air-ground coordination experiment.
Barhydt, Richard↗
Radar reconnaissance of potentially hazardous asteroids and comets
Groundbased radar is uniquely able to reduce uncertainty in trajectories and physical properties of near-earth objects. Radar can prevent the loss of a newly discovered object caused by the normal decay of orbit knowledge prior to the next optical observing opportunity, can add decades or centuries to the interval over which close Earth approaches can accurately be predicted, can significantly refine collision probability estimates that are based on optical astrometry alone.
asteroids radar↗
Creation of a Rapid High-Fidelity Aerodynamics Module for a Multidisciplinary Design Environment
In the traditional aerospace vehicle design process, each successive design phase is accompanied by an increment in the modeling fidelity of the disciplinary analyses being performed. This trend follows a corresponding shrinking of the design space as more and more design decisions are locked in. The correlated increase in knowledge about the design and decrease in design freedom occurs partly because increases in modeling fidelity are usually accompanied by significant increases in the computational expense of performing the analyses. When running high fidelity analyses, it is not usually feasible to explore a large number of variations, and so design space exploration is reserved for conceptual design, and higher fidelity analyses are run only once a specific point design has been selected to carry forward. The designs produced by this traditional process have been recognized as being limited by the uncertainty that is present early on due to the use of lower fidelity analyses. For example, uncertainty in aerodynamics predictions produces uncertainty in trajectory optimization, which can impact overall vehicle sizing. This effect can become more significant when trajectories are being shaped by active constraints. For example, if an optimal trajectory is running up against a normal load factor constraint, inaccuracies in the aerodynamic coefficient predictions can cause a feasible trajectory to be considered infeasible, or vice versa. For this reason, a trade must always be performed between the desired fidelity and the resources available. Apart from this trade between fidelity and computational expense, it is very desirable to use higher fidelity analyses earlier in the design process. A large body of work has been performed to this end, led by efforts in the area of surrogate modeling. In surrogate modeling, an up-front investment is made by running a high fidelity code over a Design of Experiments (DOE); once completed, the DOE data is used to create a surrogate model, which captures the relationships between input variables and responses into regression equations. Depending on the dimensionality of the problem and the fidelity of the code for which a surrogate model is being created, the initial DOE can itself be computationally prohibitive to run. Cokriging, a modeling approach from the field of geostatistics, provides a desirable compromise between computational expense and fidelity. To do this, cokriging leverages a large body of data generated by a low fidelity analysis, combines it with a smaller set of data from a higher fidelity analysis, and creates a kriging surrogate model with prediction fidelity approaching that of the higher fidelity analysis. When integrated into a multidisciplinary environment, a disciplinary analysis module employing cokriging can raise the analysis fidelity without drastically impacting the expense of design iterations. This is demonstrated through the creation of an aerodynamics analysis module in NASA’s OpenMDAO framework. Aerodynamic analyses including Missile DATCOM, APAS, and USM3D are leveraged to create high fidelity aerodynamics decks for parametric vehicle geometries, which are created in NASA’s Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP). Several trade studies are performed to examine the achieved level of model fidelity, and the overall impact to vehicle design is quantified.
Aerodynamic Properties↗
Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals
Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.
continous descent arrivals↗
Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System
In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.
EDL↗
Sizing and Margin Methodology for Dual-Layer Thermal Protection Systems
This presentation introduces a new sizing and margin methodology for dual-layer Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The methodology has been tailored for application to a dual-layer 3D-woven TPS called Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET). Sizing is performed for a reference Saturn probe mission to show how uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal modelling and TPS response impact the sizing of each layer.
Sizing↗