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Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

integrated demand management

Space Traffic Management with a NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Inspired Architecture

Space is becoming increasingly congested as the number of on-orbit satellites and debris objects continues to grow. Space traffic management (STM) is critical for ensuring that the expanding orbital population operates safely and efficiently, avoiding collisions and radio-frequency interference while still facilitating widespread space operations. Recent events such as the FCC approval of SpaceX’s ~12,000 satellite constellation, the signing of Space Policy Directive 3 (which moves Space Situational Awareness responsibilities away from the Department of Defense and to a civil agency), and the growth in rideshare and small launch vehicles illustrate the rapidly changing nature of this domain. This paper will describe the concept of operations (ConOps) for a civilian STM research initiative, which has been developed from previous NASA work to enable safe operation of small unmanned aircraft systems. The STM ConOps proposes an architecture to enable efficient data sharing and coordination between participants to facilitate safe spaceflight operations. It is designed to utilize and promote the emerging field of commercial STM services, as a complement to existing government-provided STM services. The concept envisions a phased evolution that would gradually integrate additional capabilities, proposing a first phase architecture and tentative plans for a broader system. Work towards developing an STM research and prototyping platform is also discussed.

UTM

Analysis of Interactions Between Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Operations and Conventional Traffic in Urban Areas: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) Study for UAM Operations

This paper presents results on potential interaction effects from UAM (Urban Air Mobility) operations integrated into current operational scenarios by evaluating if/where/how Traffic alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) alerts are triggered on-board commercial aircraft. A range of operational scenarios are evaluated with combinations of UAM vehicle route, speed, altitude, and direction along the DFW (Dallas-Fort Worth) "spine route." The effect of UAM altitude uncertainty on the above is also explored. The analysis was done for both South flow and North flow configurations of DFW. When UAM operations are deterministic, no TCAS RAs (Resolution Advisories) are issued. However, UAM altitude uncertainties point out geographic areas of concern with the associated severity of interactions.

Airspace

The Impact of Traffic Prioritization on Deep Space Network Mission Traffic

A select number of missions supported by NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) are demanding very high data rates. For example, the Kepler Mission was launched March 7, 2009 and at that time required the highest data rate of any NASA mission, with maximum rates of 4.33 Mb/s being provided via Ka band downlinks. The James Webb Space Telescope will require a maximum 28 Mb/s science downlink data rate also using Ka band links; as of this writing the launch is scheduled for a June 2014 launch. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, launched June 18, 2009, has demonstrated data rates at 100 Mb/s at lunar-Earth distances using NASA's Near Earth Network (NEN) and K-band. As further advances are made in high data rate space telecommunications, particularly with emerging optical systems, it is expected that large surges in demand on the supporting ground systems will ensue. A performance analysis of the impact of high variance in demand has been conducted using our Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) simulation tool. A comparison is made regarding the incorporation of Quality of Service (QoS) mechanisms and the resulting ground-to-ground Wide Area Network (WAN) bandwidth necessary to meet latency requirements across different user missions. It is shown that substantial reduction in WAN bandwidth may be realized through QoS techniques when low data rate users with low-latency needs are mixed with high data rate users having delay-tolerant traffic.

quality of service

Analysis of Interactions Between Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Operations and Conventional Traffic in Urban Areas: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance (TCAS) Study for UAM Operations

This paper presents a preliminary modeling and analysis of interactions between proposed UAM operations and present-day conventional traffic if UAM operations occurred along FAA- approved helicopter routes and altitude ceilings. It assesses the extent to which the UAM operations will trigger TCAS resolution advisories (RA) aboard the conventional aircraft in the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) terminal airspace. It is observed that under deterministic UAM operational conditions, no RAs will be triggered. Furthermore, the impact of UAM altitude uncertainty is also evaluated. It is observed that restricting the UAM cruise altitudes to 990 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) or below reduced the chance of triggering an RA to under five percent throughout the day, even in the presence of maximum altitude error of 30 feet.

Bulusu, Vishwanath

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)Traffic Management (UTM) (AOLUSS)Tabletop Overview

The Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project requires prototyping software to extend existing Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) software capabilities to support research in integrating drone flight activities within an emergency response airspace environment. A presentation encompassing project AOLUSS details, communications and network design will be presented at a Workshop.

STEReO software

Airborne Use of Traffic Intent Information in a Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management Concept: Experiment Design and Preliminary Results

A predominant research focus in the free flight community has been on the type of information required on the flight deck to enable pilots to "autonomously" maintain separation from other aircraft. At issue are the relative utility and requirement for information exchange between aircraft regarding the current "state" and/or the "intent" of each aircraft. This paper presents the experimental design and some initial findings of an experimental research study designed to provide insight into the issue of intent information exchange in constrained en-route operations and its effect on pilot decision making and flight performance. Two operational modes for autonomous operations were compared in a piloted simulation. The tactical mode was characterized primarily by the use of state information for conflict detection and resolution and an open-loop means for the pilot to meet operational constraints. The strategic mode involved the combined use of state and intent information, provided the pilot an additional level of alerting, and allowed a closed-loop approach to meeting operational constraints. Potential operational benefits of both modes are illustrated through several scenario case studies. Subjective data results are presented that generally indicate pilot consensus in favor of the strategic mode.

Wing, David J.

Strobe Traffic Lights Warn of Approaching Emergency Vehicles

Strobe-enhanced traffic signals have been developed to aid in the preemption of road intersections for emergency vehicles. The strobe-enhanced traffic signals can be incorporated into both new and pre-existing traffic-control systems in which the traffic-signal heads are of a relatively new type based on arrays of light-emitting diodes (LEDs). The strobe-enhanced traffic signals offer a less expensive, less complex alternative to a recently developed system of LED-based warning signs placed next to traffic signals. Because of its visual complexity, the combination of traffic signals and warning signs is potentially confusing to motorists. The strobe-enhanced traffic signals present less visual clutter. In a given traffic-signal head, the strobe-enhanced traffic signal is embedded in the red LED array of the stop signal. Two strobe LED strips one horizontal and one vertical are made capable of operating separately from the rest of the red LED matrix. When no emergency vehicle is approaching, the red LED array functions as a normal stop signal: all the red LEDs are turned on and off together. When the intersection is to be preempted for an approaching emergency vehicle, only the LEDs in one of the strobe strips are lit, and are turned on in a sequence that indicates the direction of approach. For example (see figure), if an emergency vehicle approaches from the right, the strobe LEDs are lit in a sequence moving from right to left. Important to the success of strobe-enhanced traffic signals is conformance to city ordinances and close relation to pre-existing traffic standards. For instance, one key restriction is that new icons must not include arrows, so that motorists will not confuse new icons with conventional arrows that indicate allowed directions of movement. It is also critical that new displays like strobe-enhanced traffic signals be similar to displays used in traffic-control systems in large cities. For example, Charleston, South Carolina uses horizontal strobes on red traffic lights to alert motorists and thereby help motorists not to miss red lights. The one significant potential disadvantage of strobe-enhanced traffic lights is initial unfamiliarity on the part of motorists.

Bachelder, Aaron

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks

Traffic Prediction for Uncommunicative Aircraft in Terminal Airspace: Development Framework and Performance Evaluations

This paper presents an air traffic prediction algorithm that takes observations of an aircraft and classifies aircraft type, estimates the aircraft's intent to and method of joining an airport traffic pattern, and predicts the aircaft's future trajectory. To develop algorithms that enable autonomous aircraft to safely insert into un-towered traffic patterns, several challenges need to be addressed. These challenges range from traffic detection to sensor fusion to own-ship trajectory replanning. Critical to a trajectory replanning algorithm is information regarding the future behavior of all traffic aircraft in the operational environment. The presented traffic prediction algorithm generates this information using regular measurements of traffic aircraft position and velocity to classify the aircraft by speed-class, estimate how the aircraft will approach the runway, and construct a predicted trajectory to the runway including future positions and velocities at specific times. The predictions of the presented algorithm are the necessary inputs for any downstream traffic pattern sequencing and own-ship trajectory planning routines. The presented algorithm is benchmarked using approximately 300 randomized traffic trajectories, spanning four vehicle weight classes and eight traffic entry types. While the algorithm can process multiple traffic vehicles in the terminal area, there is no prediction of traffic-on-traffic interaction. Each traffic vehicle is processed separately.

John D McMinn

Developing an Automated Microscopic Traffic Simulation Scenario Generation Tool

Traffic simulation is an effective tool for urban planners, traffic engineers, and researchers to study traffic. In particular, microscopic traffic simulation, which simulates individual vehicles’ movements within a transportation network, has demonstrated its importance in analyzing and managing transportation systems. However, integrating data from various sources, generating traffic scenarios, and importing information into traffic simulators to conduct microscopic simulations have always been a challenge. This paper presents a solution to overcome this challenge: RealTwin, a comprehensive tool for automated scenario generation for microscopic traffic simulation. Following a streamlined scenario generation and calibration workflow, RealTwin effectively bridges gaps between traffic data from various sources and traffic simulators, making microscopic traffic simulation more accessible for researchers and engineers across various levels of expertise. Using RealTwin to generate a real-world traffic scenario in Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO), VISSIM, and AIMSUN, RealTwin’s ability is demonstrated in the construction of realistic and consistent traffic scenarios in different simulators. Furthermore, this paper introduces and illustrates RealTwin’s capability for technology (e.g., autonomous vehicle) scenario generation. This feature can contribute to more comprehensive microscopic simulations, facilitating the analysis of potential effects of various technological innovations on mobility, energy efficiency, and safety. Finally, RealTwin is used to calibrate a simulation in SUMO. In conclusion, the calibration module enhances RealTwin’s ability to generate consistent simulations across different platforms and more realistic simulations that reflect real-world traffic operations.

autonomous vehicle

Dynamic Density: An Air Traffic Management Metric

The definition of a metric of air traffic controller workload based on air traffic characteristics is essential to the development of both air traffic management automation and air traffic procedures. Dynamic density is a proposed concept for a metric that includes both traffic density (a count of aircraft in a volume of airspace) and traffic complexity (a measure of the complexity of the air traffic in a volume of airspace). It was hypothesized that a metric that includes terms that capture air traffic complexity will be a better measure of air traffic controller workload than current measures based only on traffic density. A weighted linear dynamic density function was developed and validated operationally. The proposed dynamic density function includes a traffic density term and eight traffic complexity terms. A unit-weighted dynamic density function was able to account for an average of 22% of the variance in observed controller activity not accounted for by traffic density alone. A comparative analysis of unit weights, subjective weights, and regression weights for the terms in the dynamic density equation was conducted. The best predictor of controller activity was the dynamic density equation with regression-weighted complexity terms.

Laudeman, I. V.

An Evaluation Methodology for Traffic Awareness Displays

An evaluation methodology for traffic awareness displays for helicopters and other vertical/short takeoff aircraft was developed. Pilots of vertical/short takeoff aircraft wil1 require more traffic information than would pilots of conventional aircraft to avoid both other vertical/short takeoff traffic and conventional traffic. The BF Goodrich Skywatch traffic advisory display was used as a candidate display to develop a procedure for evaluating the usefulness of such displays. Four high-time helicopter pilots participated in a 16-hour flight evaluation. They flew a closed circuit in the San Francisco Bay Area. In one-half of the flights the evaluation pilot had the traffic advisory display as an aid in detecting and locating traffic. In the other half of the flights the traffic advisory display was not available to the evaluation pilot. Data examined include measures of traffic advisory display performance and pilot performance in detecting traffic, as well as subjective workload and situation awareness data. The traffic advisory system did not help the pilots to detect more traffic. The importance of detection to traffic awareness is discussed.

DeMaio, Joe

Near real-time traffic routing

A near real-time physical transportation network routing system comprising: a traffic simulation computing grid and a dynamic traffic routing service computing grid. The traffic simulator produces traffic network travel time predictions for a physical transportation network using a traffic simulation model and common input data. The physical transportation network is divided into a multiple sections. Each section has a primary zone and a buffer zone. The traffic simulation computing grid includes multiple of traffic simulation computing nodes. The common input data includes static network characteristics, an origin-destination data table, dynamic traffic information data and historical traffic data. The dynamic traffic routing service computing grid includes multiple dynamic traffic routing computing nodes and generates traffic route(s) using the traffic network travel time predictions.

Yang, Chaowei