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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion power spectra as a window into dynamic materials architecture

Chemical recycling of commodity and specialty polymers presents a multifaceted challenge for industrial societies. On one hand, macromolecular architectures must be engineered to yield durable products that, on the other hand, rapidly deconstruct to recyclable monomers under pre-determined conditions. Polymer deconstruction is a chemical process that requires deep understanding of molecular reactivity in heterogeneous media, where porous material architectures evolve in both space and time. To build this understanding, we develop herein experimental and analytical methods describing sets of diffusive eigenmodes that exist within time-varying, non-Euclidean boundary conditions, a situation commonly encountered in the reactive deconstruction of polymers where chain fragments splay, alter their local dynamics, and evolve in their confinement of reacting media. Diffusion power spectra, discerned experimentally by NMR, yield polymer and solvent frequency-domain velocity autocorrelation functions that are analyzed in the context of physical models for chemical reactions parameterized with fractal mathematics. The results connect local motion in polymers to chemical reactivity during acidolysis of circular elastomers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2025

BEAST

The Bilinear Ensemble Actuation Synthesis Toolkit (BEAST) is a computational platform that optimizes time-varying control signals to achieve a specified transfer of states governed by bilinear ensemble systems in which model parameters are subject to uncertainty.

Zlotnik, anatoly↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Materials Packaging, Transportation, and Systems Analysis Group Software Quality Assurance Plan: ANSYS Mechanical Finite Element Analysis Software Version 2023R1

ANSYS Inc. develops and markets engineering simulation software and services used in the aerospace, automotive, manufacturing, electronics, biomedical, energy, defense, and many other industries. ANSYS is dedicated to engineering simulation and is the world’s leading software provider. ANSYS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. ANSYS provides an engineering analysis tool combining structural, thermal, computational fluid dynamics, acoustic, and electromagnetic simulation capabilities. ANSYS has two main programs, which use the same solvers: (1) Mechanical APDL (ANSYS Design Parametric Language), a Fortran-based coding platform, and (2) ANSYS Workbench, which uses a graphical user interface to aid in finite element analysis implementation. This plan covers both APDL and Workbench. The ANSYS computer program is a large-scale, multipurpose finite element program that can be used to solve several classes of engineering analyses. The analysis capabilities of ANSYS include the ability to solve static and dynamic structural analyses, steady-state and transient heat transfer problems, mode-frequency and buckling eigenvalue problems, static or time-varying magnetic analyses, and various types of field and coupled-field applications. The program contains many special features that allow nonlinearities or secondary effects such as plasticity, large strain, hyperelasticity, creep, swelling, large deflections, contact, stress stiffening, temperature dependency, material anisotropy, and radiation to be included in the solution. As ANSYS has been developed, other special capabilities such as substructuring, submodeling, random vibration, kinetostatics, kinetodynamics, free convection fluid analysis, acoustics, magnetics, piezoelectrics, coupled-field analysis, and design optimization have been added to the program. These capabilities contribute further to making ANSYS a multipurpose analysis tool for varied engineering disciplines. The ANSYS program has been in commercial use for over 50 years and has been used extensively in the aerospace, automotive, construction, electronic, energy services, manufacturing, nuclear, plastics, oil, and steel industries. Additionally, many consulting firms and hundreds of universities have used ANSYS for analysis, research, and educational purposes. ANSYS is recognized worldwide as one of the most widely used and capable programs of its type. Ansys design analysis software is the first created within a quality system with ISO 9001 certification, the internationally accepted quality standard. Product development, testing, maintenance and support processes also meet the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's quality requirements, as they have for nearly four decades. The Quality Assurance Service Agreement is suitable for the customers working in the nuclear industry who need to meet specific federal regulations including 10CRF50 Appendix B and provisions of 10CFR21. ANSYS has retained its original International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 9001 accreditation certificate since1995-05-04, It’s current certificate is valid until 2027-05-29.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast Adaptive Neural Control of Resonant Extraction at Fermilab

We present the development of a machine learning (ML) based regulation system for third-order resonant beam extraction in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Classical and ML-based controllers have been optimized using semi-analytic simulations and evaluated in terms of regulation performance and training efficiency. We compare several controller architectures and discuss the integration of neural control into an adaptive framework. We also present progress on surrogate models that predict the controller response given a spill intensity and controller action history. To enable real-time deployment, we report progress on implementing low-latency, edge-based inference suitable for hardware-constrained environments. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of ML-based control in managing complex, time-varying physical systems, with broader implications for accelerator operations and other domains requiring fast, adaptive regulation.

Berlioz, Jose Rene [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing the predictive capabilities of subjective crackle metrics using leave-one-out cross validation

Leave-one-out cross validation was used to show the capability to predict crackling sound quality based on the use of the standard deviation of the time-varying sharpness and the skewness of the derivative of the pressure waveform. The predictive output of this method implies that the more sophisticated fits used to describe this data were not overfit, but instead exhibited substantial predictive value.

Swift, Stephen Hales [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2026

Delivery Ring Spill Characterization and Impulse Study

High-intensity particle physics experiments require uniform beam extraction to prevent instantaneous rate spikes from overwhelming detector systems. By analyzing accelerator parameters and extracted beam dynamics, we directly inform spill regulation systems that make real-time adjustments to minimize non-uniformity. This Department of Energy Visiting Faculty Program project transitioned from characterizing Main Injector half-integer slow extraction for SpinQuest to Delivery Ring third-integer slow extraction for Mu2e. Working alongside the Fast Adaptive Neural Control (FANC) group, we developed an automated pipeline that aligns asynchronous instrument channels, embeds quality metrics, and isolates clean spill populations. Analyzing baseline spills alongside a dedicated quadrupole impulse study allowed us to quantify noise structures while mapping time-varying beam response and transit-delay dynamics. These empirical measurements directly ground digital twin models, supporting FANC’s deployment of real-time, FPGA-based neural network controllers in the Mu2e Spill Regulation System.

Dolen, James William [Purdue U., West Lafayette] (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of magnetic field monitoring system for the MAGIS-100 experiment

The MAGIS-100 collaboration is building a long-baseline atom interferometer designed to investigate dark matter, novel forces, gravitational waves, and quantum science. A major design challenge is external, time-varying magnetic fields, the effect of which can mimic gravitational waves or expected dark matter signals. Several mitigations will be enacted, including mu-metal shielding and a suite of magnetometers. This presentation will discuss the development of a magnetic field monitoring system based on commercial magneto-inductive sensors to be installed at several points along the interferometer.

Arce, Edwin [Unlisted; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-analytical Model for Stellar Evolution in AGN Disks

Disks of gas accreting onto supermassive black holes may host numerous stellar-mass objects, formed within the disk or captured from a nuclear star cluster. We present a simplified model of stellar evolution in these dense environments, which exhibits exceptional agreement with full stellar evolution calculations at a minuscule fraction of the cost. Although the model presented here is limited to stars burning hydrogen in their cores, it is sufficient to determine the evolutionary fate of disk-embedded stars: whether they proceed to later stages of nuclear burning and leave behind a compact remnant, reach a quasi-steady state where mass loss and accretion balance one another, or whether accretion proceeds faster than stellar structure can adjust, causing a runaway. We highlight how various disk parameters and phenomena such as gap opening affect stellar evolution outcomes. We also highlight how our model can accommodate time-varying conditions, such as those experienced by a star on an eccentric orbit, and can couple to N -body integrations. This model will enable more detailed studies of stellar populations and their interaction with accretion disks than have previously been possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Score-based deterministic density sampling

We propose a deterministic sampling framework using Score-Based Transport Modeling for sampling an unnormalized target density π given only its score ∇ log π. Our method approximates the Wasserstein gradient flow on KL($f_t$∥π) by learning the time-varying score ∇ log $f_t$ on the fly using score matching. While having the same marginal distribution as Langevin dynamics, our method produces smooth deterministic trajectories, resulting in monotone noise-free convergence. We prove that our method dissipates relative entropy at the same rate as the exact gradient flow, provided sufficient training. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings: our method converges at the optimal rate, has smooth trajectories, and is often more sample efficient than its stochastic counterpart. Experiments on high-dimensional image data show that our method produces high-quality generations in as few as 15 steps and exhibits natural exploratory behavior. The memory and runtime scale linearly in the sample size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Instant Folded Strings, Dark Energy and a Cyclic Bouncing Universe

We present a wholly self-consistent, complete cyclic bouncing cosmology based on components drawn from string theory and constructed in a way that is under perturbative control throughout (e.g., with temperature much less than the string scale and string coupling $g_s \ll 1$ at all times). The cyclic evolution is governed by standard dilaton-gravity in $(3+1)$-dimensions with a perturbatively generated potential and a coupling between the dilaton and a second field that becomes massless at $ϕ= ϕ_{ESP}$, resulting in an enhanced symmetry point (ESP) that prevents the dilaton from running all the way to zero coupling. A central role is played by instant folded strings (IFSs) - fundamental strings with the unusual property of being much lighter than the string mass while extending far beyond the string length, and violating the Null Energy Condition (NEC). IFSs are produced classically when the string coupling grows with time, which occurs at two critical points in each cycle. In turn, they fulfill a dual function: enabling cosmological bounces and initiating transient epochs of dark-energy domination that naturally transition into slow contraction. The resulting cosmology eliminates the cosmic singularity and multiverse problems of big bang inflationary models and robustly predicts time-varying IFS-induced dark energy and the absence of primordial B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Marine Hydrokinetic Tidal Turbine

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset is part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with other energy technologies. This dataset contains inputs and outputs from simulations of a floating marine hydrokinetic turbine over approximately half a tidal cycle (~6.6 hours). Inflow conditions were derived from field measurements in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and represent a tidal environment in which the current speed ramps from near 0 m/s to a peak of 3 m/s and back. The original acoustic doppler current profiler dataset is publicly available on the Marine and Hydrokinetic Data Repository. In a full tidal cycle, the flow reverses and the rotor would reorient; this reversal was not modeled. In the Cook Inlet campaign , turbulence intensity was similar in both directions. Two inflow cases are included. In the first case, labeled “raw” in the files, the measured current time series was used directly in the InflowWind module of OpenFAST. Speed and direction were applied as a function of time and elevation, uniformly in the horizontal direction. With full spatial coherence, this approach captures high turbulent variability and results in pronounced power fluctuations, so it is considered a conservative, near-worst-case representation of loading. In the second case, labeled “average” in the files, a 30-minute moving average was applied to extract the slowly varying mean speed. The residual fluctuations about this mean were used to generate spatially varying, full-field turbulence inputs with TurbSim, giving a more physically realistic representation of the inflow across the rotor disk. Two random realizations were used to produce distinct inflow conditions for two OpenFAST simulations representing a two-turbine array. The same turbulence intensity is applied across the full time series, producing larger fluctuations at the start and end, where the mean speed is low. The second case is the more appropriate framework for performance and power assessment but overpredicts turbulence at lower flow speeds and underpredicts it at higher speeds. As the floating platform moves and the rotor changes its x-position, Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis used by InflowWind assumes a constant rather than a time-varying mean velocity, introducing some inaccuracy in the velocity plane sampling. The turbine modeled is the 500-kW Reference Model 1, a horizontal-axis two-bladed hydrokinetic turbine on a four-column floating semisubmersible substructure . Simulations were performed using OpenFAST v4.1 with the Reference Open Source Controller (ROSCO) v2.10. All input files required to reproduce the simulations are included. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel . This unit supports up to 2.5 MW, but NLR has only a single 1.25-MW stack. The datasets report hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. The system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operating current of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The simulated tidal turbine time series data was translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz. Each zip file represents a single tidal electrolysis experiment and is named: {technology}_{inflow method}_{number of 500 kW tidal turbines connected} For instance, “tidal-500kW-RM1_average_2.zip” is a 6-hour experiment using the 500-kW tidal reference model, scaled by 2x (1-MW) to better match the electrolyzer maximum of 1.25MW, fed with the 30-minute moving average current case. Each zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file of raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. A .csv file combines all tidal profiles as "combined_tidal_experiments.csv." A separate experiment, “characterization_200.zip,” shows the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps over 5 hours and is accessible with this entry.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2026

CTRL-STEER: Closed-Loop Neuron Activation Control in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable test-time behavioral steering via neuron-level interventions, but existing methods use fixed strengths and operate in open loop. This static modulation fails under evolving task dynamics, leading to overcorrection, oscillations, and reduced task success—especially for temporal attributes like speed. We propose CTRL-STEER, a control-theoretic framework that casts activation steering as closed-loop feedback with adaptive, time-varying interventions. Instead of assuming neurons encode temporal concepts, we steer along motion-aligned residual directions and regulate intervention magnitude via feedback. We instantiate this with both PID and reinforcement learning controllers that jointly optimize concept adherence and task success. Experiments on fine-tuned OpenVLA policies across four LIBERO suites show improved stability and a better steering–success trade-off over fixed-coefficient baselines, without retraining the base model.

Babu, Abhijith [Florida International University, ↗