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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A High-Voltage High-Reliability Scalable Architecture for Electric Vehicle Power Electronics (Final Report)

This project developed and demonstrated new composite converter technologies that lead to high power density (> 20 kW/L) at power levels of 10s of kW, 100s of kW, or possibly higher, with fundamental advances in converter efficiency and Q that lead to substantial increases in mean time to failure (MTTF). These advantages were realized through development of new composite converter topologies that perform buck, boost, or other conversion functions and that are scalable to higher voltage and power levels through sharing of voltage and current stresses among multiple dissimilar partial-power converter modules. The project led to experimental demonstration of a125 kW multifunction electric vehicle power conversion system having in-creased dc bus voltage (950 V nominal, 1200 V peak) that interfaces a 200 V to 400 V battery pack, and that includes integrated level 2 wired charging and wireless charging functions. The project incorporated SiC MOSFET modules having switching frequencies in excess of 100 kHz, planar magnetics, a hierarchical control architecture that enables scaling to higher voltages and powers with additional converter modules, and a high-power density in excess of 20 kW/L. The research demonstrated how a more complex converter approach can increase mean-time-to-failure, even though the number of elements is increased. This is achieved through significant reduction of temperature rise through fundamentally superior converter circuit topologies. The research also demonstrated new high power planar magnetics that increase power density. The technology is appropriate to a variety of applications including EV power trains, EV charging, PV inverters, battery storage, and similar areas. These systems potentially can be manufactured in the U.S.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability-Informed Life-Cycle Warranty Cost Analysis: A Case Study on a Transmission in Agricultural Equipment

In agricultural and industrial equipment, both new and remanufactured systems are often available for warranty coverage. In such cases, it may be challenging for equipment manufacturers to properly trade-off between the system reliability and the cost associated with a replacement option (e.g., replace with a new or remanufactured system). To address this problem, we present a reliability-informed life-cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis framework that enables equipment manufacturers to evaluate different warranty policies. These warranty policies differ in whether a new or remanufactured system is used for replacement in the case of product failure. The novelty of this LCWC analysis framework lies in its ability to incorporate real-world field reliability data into warranty policy assessment using probabilistic warranty cost models that consider multiple life cycles. First, the reliability functions for the new and remanufactured systems are built as the time-to-failure distributions that provide the best-fit to the field reliability data. Then, these reliability functions and their corresponding warranty policies are used to build the LCWC models according to the specific warranty terms. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate the time-to-failure uncertainty of each system, modeled by its reliability function, through each LCWC model to produce a probability distribution of the LCWC. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability-informed LCWC analysis framework is demonstrated with a real-world case study on a transmission used in some agricultural equipment.

agricultural equipment↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic nonlinear analysis of unidirectional fiber composites using image-based microstructural uncertainty quantification

Here, we present a data-driven nonlinear uncertainty quantification and propagation framework to study the microstructure-induced stochastic performance of unidirectional (UD) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. The proposed approach integrates (1) microscopic image characterization, (2) stochastic microstructure reconstruction, and (3) efficient multiscale finite element simulations enabled by self-consistent clustering (SCA) analysis. To model the complex microstructural variability, the proposed UQ methods take the non-Gaussian uncertainty sources into account through a distribution-free sampling approach leveraging nonparametric and asymptotic statistical tools. A hierarchical conditional sampling strategy enables the simultaneous sampling of multiple sources of uncertainties. Our approach provides insights into the impact of microstructural variabilities, which are shown to have an increasing impact on the nonlinear responses of UD CFRP parts under progressive compression loading and ultimately on the failure rate over time. We discover that before CFRP parts start to fail, a characteristic time period emerges with distinctive uncertainty distributions specific to the microstructure variability and the probability of failure. Identifying the failure time period is crucial to the reliability prediction, which is an essential component of CFRP design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Relaxation Cracking in 347H Stainless Steel Arc Welds: Susceptibility Evaluation of Heat-Affected Zone

Stress relaxation cracking (SRC) is considered one of the major failure mechanisms for 347H stainless steel welds at elevated service temperatures or during post weld heat treatment (PWHT), especially within the heat-affected zone (HAZ). This work focuses on the characterization of SRC susceptibility within 347H physically simulated arc welded HAZ at elevated temperatures. A four-step SRC thermomechanical test in combination with finite element modeling (FEM) of the welding and testing processes is developed to establish a susceptibility map for HAZ. The test first runs a thermal cycle with three different peak temperatures (1335, 1275, and 1150 °C) to duplicate representative HAZ subzone microstructures, followed by time-to-failure examination under a variety of pre-stress (260–600 MPa) and pre-strain conditions (0.03–0.19) as a function of reheat temperatures between 750 and 1050 °C. With the aid of FEM, SRC susceptibility maps are generated to identify the threshold stress, plastic strain, and creep strain as a function of test temperature. It was found out that HAZ subzone with a lower peak temperature (1150 °C) appears to be slightly less susceptible to SRC than the other two subzones that experienced higher peak temperatures. Generally, time-to-fracture reduces with increasing initially applied stress and strain for all test temperatures. The pre-stress thresholds decrease from about 500 to 330 MPa as the testing temperature increases from 800 to 1050 °C, while the corresponding initial plastic strain thresholds reduces from 0.15 to 0.06. The SRC susceptibility was also evaluated through the Larson–Miller Parameter (LMP) analysis as a function of plastic strain, initial stress and starting stress upon reaching the testing temperature, respectively. The 1050 °C test with a high pre-applied strain (0.1) exhibits an extremely short time to failure (t = 3 s) that lies outside the general trend in LMP analysis. Additionally, it was identified that a plastic strain above 0.07 is identified to significantly reduce the bulk creep strain tolerance to fracture and therefore increases SRC susceptibility. Hardness measurement and fractography analysis indicated that the strain aging of niobium carbonitrides and other potential phases in conjunction with intergranular precipitates contributes to an increase in microhardness and increased intergranular cracking susceptibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of pond reliability on the techno-economic and life cycle environmental impacts of algal biofuels

Despite extensive research on algal bioproducts, there is limited understanding of how pond contamination affects their economics and environmental impacts. This work compared the costs and environmental impacts of algal biofuels across different pond failure scenarios. Pond failure was simulated by a reliability model based on pond mean-time-to-failure (MTTF). The reliability model was integrated with a process model to analyze the impacts of pond failure on the operations of algal farms and biorefineries. Process model outputs were used for techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment to determine the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), global warming potential (GWP), and freshwater consumption impacts of algal biofuels for five MTTF scenarios of 20, 54, 80,120, and 350 days, assuming an average mean-time-to-reset of 7 days. Results show that higher MTTFs reduce the cost and environmental impact of algal biofuels, but with diminishing returns. The average MFSPs for the 20-day, 54-day, and 350-day MTTF scenarios were $\$3.52$, $\$2.54$, and $\$2.10$ per liter of gasoline equivalent, respectively. The GWP for the same scenarios were 131, 96, and 83 g CO 2eq MJ –1 , respectively. This study highlights the significant impact of larger seed trains, required under low MTTFs, on the costs and greenhouse gas emissions of algal biofuels. Moreover, the work shows that algal biofuels fail to be cost-competitive with conventional fuels, even when productivities are increased from 17 to 35 g m –2 d –1 . Furthermore, this work is the first to explore the implications of pond failure on the sustainability of algal biofuels and provides valuable insights to algae farmers on how to reduce the costs and financial risks of algal cultivation through process design and pond management strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processed Lab Data for Neural Network-Based Shear Stress Level Prediction

Machine learning can be used to predict fault properties such as shear stress, friction, and time to failure using continuous records of fault zone acoustic emissions. The files are extracted features and labels from lab data (experiment p4679). The features are extracted with a non-overlapping window from the original acoustic data. The first column is the time of the window. The second and third columns are the mean and the variance of the acoustic data in this window, respectively. The 4th-11th column is the the power spectrum density ranging from low to high frequency. And the last column is the corresponding label (shear stress level). The name of the file means which driving velocity the sequence is generated from. Data were generated from laboratory friction experiments conducted with a biaxial shear apparatus. Experiments were conducted in the double direct shear configuration in which two fault zones are sheared between three rigid forcing blocks. Our samples consisted of two 5-mm-thick layers of simulated fault gouge with a nominal contact area of 10 by 10 cm^2. Gouge material consisted of soda-lime glass beads with initial particle size between 105 and 149 micrometers. Prior to shearing, we impose a constant fault normal stress of 2 MPa using a servo-controlled load-feedback mechanism and allow the sample to compact. Once the sample has reached a constant layer thickness, the central block is driven down at constant rate of 10 micrometers per second. In tandem, we collect an AE signal continuously at 4 MHz from a piezoceramic sensor embedded in a steel forcing block about 22 mm from the gouge layer The data from this experiment can be used with the deep learning algorithm to train it for future fault property prediction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers Year 1 Continuation Report

This report describes the first year of work on a project to develop the methods, tools, and data required to analyze high temperature ceramic Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) components. This first year focused on developing the methods and data required for a time-independent assessment of potential components, focusing in particular on ceramic solar receivers. The report describes both model development and testing work focused on accomplishing this goal. Our overall conclusion is that high temperature ceramic CSP components are viable and could provide a means to overcome the expected low reliability and short service life for equivalent components constructed from Ni-based superalloys. Based on the results reported here, we recommend the project continue to Phase II which will develop more sophisticated, realistic models for time-dependent failure of ceramics operating in expected CSP component conditions and develop the time-dependent ceramic test data needed to parameterize these models, using commercial SiC as a reference material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Embedded sensors integrated into critical components for in situ health monitoring of steam turbines

Operational flexibility is desired in today’s coal-fired power plants to balance power grids by compensating for the variable electricity supply from renewable energy sources and distributed gensets. This demanding requirement accelerates materials degradation and makes in-situ health monitoring essential. Life monitoring of components and subsystems is thus seen as essential in assessing material and mechanical behavior to estimate system reliability, move to a conditionbased maintenance strategy and determine time to failure of the units in their actual operating conditions. Vibration monitoring can be exploited for blade tip timing to measure blade vibration amplitude and tip clearance to detect any deterioration taking place in the condition of steam turbine blades. A failure of a rotating blade can lead to severe turbine damage followed by extensive repairs and loss of power production. A blade vibration monitoring system can help early detection of abnormal blade vibration behavior. In conjunction with a health monitoring system, the vibration characteristics can be analyzed to support a pro-active maintenance and inspection schedule. While the feasibility of this inspection technique has been amply demonstrated, there is a need to install induction probes to magnetize the blade for signal output. Siemens, in partnership with Raytheon Technologies Research Corporation (RTRC), proposes a holistic approach to develop embedded sensors to utilize radio frequency for not only coupling to sensors, but as the sensing modality. The goal of this project is to “embed” the novel sensing approach by using either additively manufactured or extruded waveguides on rotating blades for recording, evaluation and monitoring of blade vibrations in Low Pressure turbines, with applications extending to aero engines

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT): A review from a statistical perspective

Despite its use in one form or another for at least four decades, HALT and related techniques [e.g., highly accelerated-stress screening (HASS) and stress audits (HASA)] are not well understood within the statistical community and remain controversial. This largely reflects a conflict in motivation between engineers, testing under harsh conditions to discover and eliminate failure modes, and statisticians, taking a more cautious approach to develop quantitative estimates of parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF). Here, this review article will clarify HALT concepts and methods and explain where it fits within the universe of methods that involve the application of accelerating factors to compress the time required to evaluate or enhance product reliability. A major distinction is between methods such as HALT, a high-stress test-analyze-fix-test iterative process directed at improving reliability by discovering and fixing weak points in a design, and quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT), whose goal is the estimation of product life for a fixed design. We discuss methods such as physics of failure that offer some hope of bridging the gap between the qualitative nature of HALT, and purely quantitative statistical methods. We present a variety of engineering applications of HALT including metal fatigue, piping and pressure vessels, structural damage, radiation damage, and rotating machinery. We also discuss potential synergies between HALT and QALT, such as rapid identification, through HALT, of failure modes requiring quantitative analysis. For further study, extensive references to the applicable literature are provided as well as an appendix that describes related methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fuel performance analysis of Cr-coated Zircaloy-4 cladding during a prototypical LOCA event using BISON

Here, deformation and failure of chromium (Cr) coated Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) were studied in loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions using the BISON fuel performance code. The BISON validation model simulating Halden research reactor experiments was extended to include Cr coatings and higher rod internal pressures to simulate high-burnup fuel. The transient simulations show Cr coatings help relieve stress in the Zry-4 substrate during the transient, delaying the onset of high-temperature creep, which leads to ballooning and bursting of the cladding. A nominal Cr coating thickness of 30 µm delays clad failure by 26 seconds and increases the clad burst temperature by 40 K. A parametric study showed that time to failure and burst temperature both increase with coating thickness, and Cr-coated cladding offers burst resistance under a wide range of rod internal pressures simulating high-burnup fuel. Results indicate that a thin Cr coating provides resistance against ballooning and bursting of cladding during LOCA events.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗