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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive analysis of transient pressure and rate data from CO 2 storage projects in a depleted pinnacle reef oil field complex, Michigan, USA

Pressure and rate data are commonly recorded as part of a basic monitoring program in CCS projects. This paper discusses the application of multiple analytical techniques to interpret pressure and rate transient data from CO 2 injection and storage operations. The techniques of interest, i.e., injection-falloff analysis, injectivity/productivity index analysis and pressure pulse arrival time analysis, are commonly used in the oil and gas industry to assess reservoir properties, but not well known in the CCS literature (especially the last two). Injection-falloff analysis involves log-log pressure derivative plotting for the falloff data and history-matching of the entire injection-falloff sequence to determine permeability. In the injectivity/productivity index analysis, rate-normalized pressure buildup is plotted against material balance time or ratio of cumulative injection to injection rate to determine the injectivity index (ratio of injection rate to stabilized pressure buildup) which can be related to the permeability-thickness product. The arrival time analysis identifies the arrival of a pressure disturbance (~0.1 psi change from ambient) to determine the hydraulic diffusivity from which permeability can be estimated. The applicability of these techniques is demonstrated via illustrative examples from multiple wells in different pinnacle carbonate reefs undergoing CO 2 -EOR in Northern Michigan. The paper ends with a discussion of the relative merits of each interpretive technique, as well as recommendations that could be useful for other field projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Wrapper to Use a Machine-Learning-Based Algorithm for Earthquake Monitoring

Seismology is one of the main sciences used to monitor volcanic activity worldwide. Fast, efficient, and accurate seismicity detectors are crucial to assess the activity level of a volcano in near–real time and to issue timely warnings. Traditional real–time seismic processing software uses phase onset pickers followed by a phase association algorithm to declare an event and estimate its location. The pickers typically do not identify whether the detected phase is a P or S arrival, which can have a negative impact on hypocentral location quality and complicates phase association. We implemented the deep–neural–network–based method PhaseNet to identify in real time P and S seismic waves on data from one– and three–component seismometers. We tuned the Earthworm binder_ew associator module to use the phase identification from PhaseNet to detect and locate the events, which we archive in a SeisComP3 database. We assessed the performance of the algorithm by comparing the results with existing catalogs built to monitor seismic and volcanic activity in Mayotte and the Lesser Antilles region. Our algorithm, which we refer to as PhaseWorm, showed promising results in both contexts and clearly outperformed the previous automatic method implemented in Mayotte. As a result, this innovative real–time processing system is now operational for seismicity monitoring in Mayotte and Martinique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b

We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Intent and Social Influence Networks and Their Significance in Detecting COVID-19 Disinformation Actors on Social Media

Online disinformation actors are those individuals or bots who disseminate false or misleading information over social media, with the intent to sway public opinion in the information domain towards harmful social outcomes. Quantification of the degree to which users post or respond intentionally versus under social influence, remains a challenge, as individuals or organizations operating the profile are foreshadowed by their online persona. However, social influence has been shown to be measurable in the paradigm of information theory. In this paper, we introduce an information theoretic measure to quantify social media user intent, and then investigate the corroboration of intent with evolution of the social network and detection of disinformation actors related to COVID-19 discussions on Twitter. Our measurement of user intent utilizes an existing time series analysis technique for estimation of social influence using transfer entropy among the considered users. We have analyzed 4.7 million tweets originating from several countries of interest, during a 5 month period when the arrival of the first dose of COVID vaccinations were announced. Our key findings include evidence that: (i) a significant correspondence between intent and social influence; (ii) ranking over users by intent and social influence is unstable over time with evidence of shifts in the hierarchical structure; and (iii) both user intent and social influence are important when distinguishing disinformation actors from non-disinformation actors.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fill tube dynamics in inertial confinement fusion implosions with high density carbon ablators

Plasma jets, such as γ-ray burst jets, Herbig–Haro jets, μ-quasar jets, and active galactic nuclei jets, are found throughout the universe [S. Mendoza et al., Rev. Mex. Astron. Astrofis. 41, 453 (2005)]. Plasma jets are also present in indirect drive inertial confinement fusion experiments originating from the capsule's fill tube and occasionally from divots and voids in the capsules, particles on the exterior of the capsule, or from the tent holding the capsule in the target. This paper looks at two different gas-filled capsule implosions containing a plasma jet resulting from a capsule fill tube and fill channel, both of which utilized high density carbon ablators. Two models were developed, a drag and a snowplow model, which use the time-dependent motion of the injected mass through the hotspot to estimate the mass injected into the hotspot from the fill tube and channel, arriving at an average injected mass of ~84.5 ± 25.5 ng for the first experiment and 91 ± 20 ng for the second experiment. Furthermore, unlike previous methods to estimate fill tube injected mass, these techniques do not assume that the mixed mass is in thermal equilibrium with the hotspot or that the x-ray emission is only coming from within the hotspot itself. This paper also discusses the features seen in these experiments which include limb brightening in the shell for undoped ablators and flattening in the ablator from shadowing by the fill tube.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conformational Dynamics of Bacteriochlorophyll c in Chlorosomes from the bchQ Mutant of Chlorobaculum tepidum

In contrast to the common viewpoint that bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) motion is largely absent within the chlorosome assembly, physics-based modeling points to a crucial role of the nanoscale librational motion of the macrocycle for the transfer of excitons. To elucidate this motion experimentally, compositional uniformity and high sensitivity are required. We focused on uniformly 13 C labeled chlorosome preparations from the bchQ mutant Chlorobaculum tepidum with significantly enhanced structural homogeneity. The librational motion is characterized using Rotational Echo DOuble Resonance (REDOR), and in addition, the impact of temperature on specific functionalities within BChl molecules is studied with 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional dipolar and scalar-based MAS NMR measurements. Results show the gradual freezing of the tails and side chains of the BChls with decreasing temperature. However, the librational motion analyzed by measuring the 5C–H dipolar coupling strength obtained from REDOR data sets persists at different temperatures. REDOR simulations show a close match to the experimental dephasing frequency of oscillation for a dipolar coupling strength of 17.5 ± 0.5 kHz which is considerably less than the dipolar coupling strength of 22.7 kHz in the rigid limit. Following a two-site jump model, we arrive at an estimate for BChl libration sampling at an angle of θ = 48 ± 4°, corroborating that the macrocycle indeed experiences significant librational motion on a time scale that is short compared to the NMR measurement time. This finding is in full quantitative support of the dominant rotational motion exhibited by the BChl macrocycle estimated from early MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design of an epithermal neutron velocity selection system for the Penn State Breazeale Reactor

A series of mechanical neutron choppers to operate as a velocity selection system have been developed for the Pennsylvania State Breazeal Reactor (PSBR). This chopper system will provide pulsed epithermal neutrons in the energy range of 0.5–40 eV with 2% or better energy resolution, and with a transmission of 1E-6 or better. Four different chopper geometries have been evaluated for their utility as mechanical neutron choppers. Specifically, Fermi, ring, piston, and disc choppers have been evaluated to assess their potential neutronics performance and mechanical constructability. A series of high-speed disc choppers were selected for the final design, and optimization work was performed to maximize the neutron pulse intensity. It is estimated that the optimized system will produce an epithermal neutron intensity of approximately 96 n/s. This system can also be operated in a time of flight (TOF) configuration such that the neutrons arriving at the source have a white spectrum. This operation can be accomplished by leaving the second stage of choppers in the open position, or by removing it from the beam completely. Such unique source of epithermal neutrons produced by this chopper system will have applications in both prompt and delayed epithermal neutron activation analysis (ENAA), as well as in neutron resonance transmission analysis (NRTA).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismotectonic evidence for subduction beneath the Eastern Greater Caucasus

SUMMARY We generated high-resolution 3-D seismic velocity models as well as a relocated earthquake catalogue across the eastern Greater Caucasus and Kura basins. This work was done using data from the recently upgraded Republic Seismological Survey Center's (RSSC) seismic network. We generated our tomographic images of crustal velocity structure in Azerbaijan using double-difference inversions (i.e. tomoDD and hypoDD). Earthquake catalogues from the RSSC between 2011 and 2016 were used; these catalogues include absolute arrival times of 103 288 P- and 120 952 S-wave traveltime picks for 7574 events recorded at 35 stations in Azerbaijan. Beginning with a layered, 1-D velocity model that was estimated using VELEST, we inverted simultaneously for relative location, Vp and Vs on a 3-D grid with dimensions 670 × 445 × 45 km, with a uniform grid spacing of 55 × 55 × 5 km for all of Azerbaijan. We observe that the relocated hypocentres cluster into two depth ranges, at the surface and at depth, that appear to correspond to major fault zones and the top of a subducting plate. Additionally, we note intermediate depth seismicity (∼50–60 km) beneath the Kura Basin, and a northward deepening of earthquake depths. Seismic velocities vary significantly throughout the study region; we observe very slow velocities throughout the Kura Basin between 5 and 15 km, and elevated velocities at 20–35 km. The wholesale velocity structure and seismic structure of Kura Basin strongly mirrors that of the Caspian Sea, which suggests that the geodynamics of the Caspian continue westwards into Azerbaijan. The key results of this study suggest that the northward subduction observed in the Caspian Sea continues beneath the Eastern Greater Caucasus, as well as provides evidence for active faulting along the southern margin of the mountain range.

Gunnels, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pulse-shape discrimination against low-energy Ar-39 beta decays in liquid argon with 4.5 tonne-years of DEAP-3600 data

The DEAP-3600 detector searches for the scintillation signal from dark matter particles scattering on a 3.3 tonne liquid argon target. The largest background comes from 39 Ar beta decays and is suppressed using pulse-shape discrimination (PSD). We use two types of PSD estimator: the prompt-fraction, which considers the fraction of the scintillation signal in a narrow and a wide time window around the event peak, and the log-likelihood-ratio, which compares the observed photon arrival times to a signal and a background model. We furthermore use two algorithms to determine the number of photons detected at a given time: (1) simply dividing the charge of each PMT pulse by the mean single-photoelectron charge, and (2) a likelihood analysis that considers the probability to detect a certain number of photons at a given time, based on a model for the scintillation pulse shape and for afterpulsing in the light detectors. The prompt-fraction performs approximately as well as the log-likelihood-ratio PSD algorithm if the photon detection times are not biased by detector effects. We explain this result using a model for the information carried by scintillation photons as a function of the time when they are detected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022

Background: Sweden reached the UNAIDS 90–90–90 target in 2015. It is important to reassess the HIV epi- demiological situation due to ever-changing migration patterns, the roll-out of PrEP and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: We aimed to assess the pro- gress towards the UNAIDS 95–95–95 targets in Sweden by estimating the proportion of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWHIV) and HIV incidence trends. Methods: We used routine laboratory data to inform a biomarker model of time since infection. When available, we used previous negative test dates, arrival dates for PWHIV from abroad and transmission modes to inform our incidence model. We also used data collected from the Swedish InfCareHIV register on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Results: The yearly incidence of HIV in Sweden decreased after 2014. In part, this was because the fraction of undiagnosed PWHIV had decreased almost twofold since 2006. After 2015, three of four PWHIV in Sweden were diagnosed within 1.9 and 3.2 years after infection among men who have sex with men and in heterosexual groups, respectively. While 80% of new PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV before immigration, they make up 50% of the current PWHIV in Sweden. By 2022, 96% of all PWHIV in Sweden had been diag- nosed, and 99% of them were on ART, with 98% virally suppressed. Conclusions: By 2022, about half of all PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV abroad. Using our new biomarker model, we assess that Sweden has reached the UNAIDS goal at 96–99–98.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utah FORGE - Development of a Reservoir Seismic Velocity Model and Seismic Resolution Study

This is data from and a final report on the development of a 3D velocity model for the larger FORGE area and on the seismic resolution in the stimulated fracture volume at the bottom of well 16A-32. The velocity model was developed using RMS velocities of the seismic reflection survey and seismic velocity logs from borehole measurements as an input model. To improve the accuracy of the model in the shallow subsurface, travel times phase arrivals of the direct propagating P-waves were determined from the seismic reflection data, using PhaseNet, a deep-neural-network-based seismic arrival time picking method. The travel times were subsequently inverted using the input velocity model. The seismic resolution study used borehole and surface seismic sensors as well as the seismicity observed during the April 2022 stimulation experiment to estimate the seismic resolution in the activated fracture reservoir. The data contain a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model for the larger FORGE area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-Based Reconstruction for Collimated Beam Ultrasound Systems

Collimated beam ultrasound systems are a novel technology for imaging inside multi-layered structures such as geothermal wells. Such systems include a transmitter and multiple receivers to capture reflected signals. Common algorithms for ultrasound reconstruction use delay-and-sum (DAS) approaches; these have low computational complexity but produce inaccurate images in the presence of complex structures and specialized geometries such as collimated beams.In this paper, we propose a multi-layer, ultrasonic, model-based iterative reconstruction algorithm designed for collimated beam systems. We introduce a physics-based forward model to accurately ac-count for the propagation of a collimated ultrasonic beam in multi-layer media and describe an efficient implementation using binary search. We model direct arrival signals, detector noise, and a spatially varying image prior, then cast the reconstruction as a maximum a posteriori estimation problem. Using simulated and experimental data we obtain significantly fewer artifacts relative to DAS while running in near real time using commodity compute resources.

Alanazi, Abdulrahman M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal Characterization and Filtering of Sensor Data to Support Anomaly Detection

Here, we present an approach for characterizing complex temporal behavior in the sensor measurements of a system in order to support detection of anomalies in that system. We first characterize typical behavior by extending a hidden Markov model-based approach to time series alignment. We then use a trace of that learned behavior to develop a particle filter that enables efficient estimation of the filtering distribution on the state space. This produces filtered residuals that can then be used in an anomaly detection framework. Our motivating example is the daily behavior of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, using sensor measurements that arrive every minute and induce a state space with 15,120 states. We provide an end-to-end demonstration of our approach showing improved performance of anomaly detection after application of alignment and filtering compared to the unaligned data. The proposed model is implemented as a computationally efficient R package alignts (align time series) built with R and Fortran 95 with OpenMP support.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calculation of rf-induced temporal jitter in ultrafast electron diffraction

A significant contribution to the temporal resolution of an ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) instrument is arrival time jitter caused by amplitude and phase variation of radio-frequency (rf) cavities. In this paper, we present a semianalytical approach for calculating rf-induced temporal jitter from klystron and rf cavity parameters. Our approach allows fast estimation of temporal jitter for MeV-UED beamlines and can serve as a virtual timing tool when shot-to-shot measurements of rf amplitude and phase jitters are available. A simulation study for the SLAC MeV-UED instrument is presented, and the temporal resolution of several beamline configurations is compared.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗