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NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of iconic versus F-map microburst displays

Previous studies have shown graphical presentation methods of hazardous wind shear to be superior to textual or audible warnings alone. Positional information and the strength of the hazard were observed to be and were cited by pilots as the most important factors in a display. In this experiment the use of the three different graphical presentations of hazardous wind shear are examined. Airborne predictive detectors of wind shear enable the dissemination of varying levels of information. The effectiveness of iconic and mapping display modes of different complexities are addressed through simulation and analysis. Different positional and time-varying situations are presented in a 'part-task' Boeing 767 simulator using data from actual microburst events. Experienced airline pilots fly approach profiles using both iconic and F-map wind shear alerting displays. Microburst accompanied each event is also shown to the pilot. Mapping display types are expected to be found exceptionally efficient at conveying location comparison information while iconic displays simplify the threat recognition process. Preliminary results from the simulator study are presented. Recommendations concerning the suitability of multilevel iconic and mapping displays are made. Situational problems with current display prototypes are also addressed.

Salzberger, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment

The threat of low-altitude wind shear has prompted development of aircraft-based sensors that measure winds directly on the aircraft's intended flight path. Measurements from these devices are subject to turbulence inputs and measurement error, as well as to the underlying wind profile. Stochastic estimators are developed to process on-board Doppler sensor measurements, producing optimal estimates of the winds along the path. A stochastic prediction technique is described to predict the hazard to the aircraft from the estimates as well as the level of uncertainty of the hazard prediction. The stochastic prediction technique is demonstrated in a simulated microburst wind shear environment. Use of the technique in a decision-making process is discussed.

Stratton, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Driver Identification Midyear Report

First, we create a profile for each authorized driver based on their existing driving data. We then train a machine learning model on the driving data from this profile, yielding an individualized model for each driver. Finally during a drive, we pass the Controller Area Network (CAN) data to the model and authen ticate the driver’s identity in real-time. This verification or lack thereof could be used to alert supervisors of threats to their drivers or transported materials. Deviations from their normal driving behavior could indicate high-risk situations, medical events, or even insider threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using root and soil traits to forecast woody encroachment dynamics in mesic grassland

Grasslands are a widespread and globally important biome providing key ecosystem services including C storage and regulation of the water cycle. Grasslands face multiple threats, including changes in drought intensity and woody encroachment - a process that results in increased woody plant abundance corresponding with decreased herbaceous plant abundance. The combination of reduced soil moisture and shifts in plant dominance from herbaceous to woody are likely to alter C pools in the soil profile. We currently do not have the capacity to predict either the magnitude or rates of change in these C pools. In order to predict changes in grassland vegetation structure and the associated impacts on C cycling requires greater understanding of changes in soil C pools at multiple soil depths, and the responses of these pools to changes in precipitation. To support and perform this parameterization of Land Surface Models, we performed detailed investigations of root (anatomical and physiological) and soil traits (microbial function) at varying soil depths, to capture the belowground impacts of changing dominant plant growth forms (grasses to shrubs) and the impacts of frequent drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collection And Analysis Of Telemetry For The Cyote Heuristic

CATCH CLI focuses on gathering telemetry data, storing it in the Neo4j database, querying for Mitre ATT&CK patterns, and creating STIX 2.1 reports. Key Components: Analysis Modules: Analyze data to detect attack patterns. GoSTOTS Collection Engines: Collect telemetry data. These tools can be used together or individually. Analysis modules rely on data from specific engines to identify attack patterns. Source Code Organization: Engines: CATCH/catch/cmd/collection Modules: CATCH/catch/cmd/analysis CGUI Overview CATCH Graphical User Interface (CGUI) offers a graphical shell to execute CATCH CLI, allowing easy editing of: Analysis Modules Database configurations Profiles (collection and device settings) Neo4j Overview Neo4j is a graph database using the Cypher query language, storing data in JSON. It seamlessly integrates with STIX 2.1 data for: Data Submission: CATCH Collection Engines Data Querying: Analysis Modules CATCH modifies STIX 2.1 data for Neo4j submission and reverts it back during querying. STIG Overview Structured Threat Intelligence Graph (STIG) is a tool for creating, editing, querying, analyzing, and visualizing threat intelligence using STIX 2.1 and storing data in Neo4j. Usage Tools can be run: Manually (CLI): Refer to CATCH documentation User Interface: Run ./cgui/CGUI or go run ./cgui/ Additional Information Logging System: Detailed in the config documentation Further Documentation: Available for CATCH and CGUI

Madsen, MichaelJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

DOE OSTI2021

How lipidomics can transform our understanding of virus infections

Traditionally, lipids have been thought of as molecules that provide structure and energy, but their functional relevance in disease mechanisms is increasingly clear, and with advancements in mass spectrometry technologies, lipidomics analyses is a tool gaining recognition. Beyond the utility of lipoprotein and fatty acid profiles in clinical diagnosis and chemotaxonomic identifications, respectively, lipidomics analysis that combines knowledge across disciplines and can resolve exact lipid structures has the potential to advance clinical diagnoses and associated treatment, differentiate pathogen types (e.g., virus vs. bacterial vs. fungal), detect natural vs lab-grown viruses, and perhaps distinguish a pathogen from a benign biological agent (i.e., threat potential). As new viruses emerge and localized outbreaks expand, lipidomics will accelerate our understanding of viral infections and aid in maximizing the discovery of novel biomarkers of pathogenicity and host response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Spacecraft Charging and the Microwave Anisotropy Probe Spacecraft

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP), a MIDEX mission built in partnership between Princeton University and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), will study the cosmic microwave background. It will be inserted into a highly elliptical earth orbit for several weeks and then use a lunar gravity assist to orbit around the second Lagrangian point (L2), 1.5 million kilometers, anti-sunward from the earth. The charging environment for the phasing loops and at L2 was evaluated. There is a limited set of data for L2; the GEOTAIL spacecraft measured relatively low spacecraft potentials (approx. 50 V maximum) near L2. The main area of concern for charging on the MAP spacecraft is the well-established threat posed by the "geosynchronous region" between 6-10 Re. The launch in the autumn of 2000 will coincide with the falling of the solar maximum, a period when the likelihood of a substorm is higher than usual. The likelihood of a substorm at that time has been roughly estimated to be on the order of 20% for a typical MAP mission profile. Because of the possibility of spacecraft charging, a requirement for conductive spacecraft surfaces was established early in the program. Subsequent NASCAP/GEO analyses for the MAP spacecraft demonstrated that a significant portion of the sunlit surface (solar cell cover glass and sunshade) could have nonconductive surfaces without significantly raising differential charging. The need for conductive materials on surfaces continually in eclipse has also been reinforced by NASCAP analyses.

Timothy, VanSant J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

BLAYER User Guide

Estimation of boundary layer edge or thickness is an essential aspect of utilizing high fidelity aerothermodynamic flow solutions. For viscous flow over a flat plate, the boundary layer thickness is usually defined as the distance from the wall at which the flow velocity (zero at the wall) has increased through some profile to 99% or 99.5% of the free stream velocity. In real gas flows over aerospace vehicles, a total enthalpy profile is employed for edge calculations. The importance of knowing boundary layer thickness and its relation to possible transition from laminar to turbulent flow is illustrated by Space Shuttle mission STS-114, when the appearance of tile gap filler protrusions on the nose was deemed serious enough that a crew member was called upon to exit the vehicle and remove the potential threat prior to its descent from orbit. The BLAYER utility used as part of post-processing Orion/MPCV flow solutions is a generalization of the earlier BLAYER_RESULTS utility developed following the STS-107 Columbia accident. BLAYER handles a variable number of gas species (not just 5), allows for more than one temperature and for optional extra flow quantities, and omits optional handling of Orbiter tile datasets.

momentum thicknes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber Conservative Operations

In an era of increasingly sophisticated and pervasive cyber threats, robust cyber resilience strategies are more critical than ever. This paper introduces the concept of Cyber Conservative Operations, a proactive approach designed to assist critical infrastructure owners and operators in managing risk and maintaining resilience in the face of imminent, yet not occurring, cyber events. By leveraging the principles of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and the energy sector’s practice of conservative operations, Cyber Conservative Operations offer a framework for planning and executing coordinated active defense and resilience-oriented actions ahead of cyber events. This approach aims to minimize the consequences of digitally-enabled hazards and ensure swift recovery from anticipated cyber threats. Cyber Conservative Operations enhance the ability of owners and operators to execute pre-planned defense and resilience actions, thereby reducing the impact of digitally-enabled hazards. These operations are crucial for addressing impacts that cannot be precisely quantified or forecasted and for preparing organizations for rapid recovery from imminent digital threats. The paper begins with a discussion of conservative operations as applied to the bulk power system (BPS), a current mechanism allowing BPS entities to enact defensive operating plans to mitigate impending grid unreliability. Building on this model, we present a concept for implementing cyber conservative operations at asset owner facilities. The paper concludes with two case studies of cyber conservative operations drawn from high-profile cyber events, illustrating the practical application and benefits of this proactive approach.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity concerns for the energy sector in the maritime domain

The world has seen a number of high-profile maritime disasters in recent months and years, and has felt the impact of them. At the same time, the world has also seen a number of high-profile cyberattacks. It has felt their impact, as well. And, likely no sector has been more affected by the maritime and cyber incidents than the energy sector, as fuel prices often spike or trough, and access to energy resources can become an instant source of concern, tension, or even conflict. As energy sectors—in all their forms—continue to rely on the maritime domain or even increase that reliance, they must be mindful that traditional maritime threats—like piracy, theft, and weather events—are not the only threats they face today. Maritime cybersecurity concerns are among the most potentially disruptive to energy-sector interests and, yet, are among the least understood and least addressed. This paper identifies nine areas in which the energy sector faces harmful cyber vulnerabilities in the maritime domain, to provide enough insight and examples to allow for action to be taken to reduce the risk of harm from these different vulnerabilities. The paper develops the example of offshore wind energy to model how to assess cyber considerations more fully. Ultimately, it concludes with a series of recommendations that offer policymakers, energy-sector actors, and security and law-enforcement professionals steps to minimize the exposure of the maritime energy sector to harmful cyberattacks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

Hu, Shaowen↗

NASA NTRS2014

Ballistic Performance Model of Crater Formation in Monolithic, Porous Thermal Protection Systems

Porous monolithic ablative systems insulate atmospheric reentry vehicles from reentry plasmas generated by atmospheric braking from orbital and exo-orbital velocities. Due to the necessity that these materials create a temperature gradient up to several thousand Kelvin over their thickness, it is important that these materials are near their pristine state prior to reentry. These materials may also be on exposed surfaces to space environment threats like orbital debris and meteoroids leaving a probability that these exposed surfaces will be below their prescribed values. Owing to the typical small size of impact craters in these materials, the local flow fields over these craters and the ablative process afford some margin in thermal protection designs for these locally reduced performance values. In this work, tests to develop ballistic performance models for thermal protection materials typical of those being used on Orion are discussed. A density profile as a function of depth of a typical monolithic ablator and substructure system is shown in Figure 1a.

Miller, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

characterization↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

Brent W. Barbee↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

Airburst↗

NASA NTRS1993

Precision slew/settle technologies for flexible spacecraft

Many spacecraft missions in the next decade will require both a high degree of agility and precision pointing. Agility includes both rotational maneuvering for retargeting and translational motion for orbit adjustment and threat avoidance. The major challenge associated with such missions is the need for control over a wide range of amplitudes and frequencies, ranging from tens of degrees at less than 1 Hz to a few micron radians at hundreds of Hz. TRW's internally funded Precision Control of Agile Spacecraft (PCAS) project is concerned with developing and validating in hardware the tools necessary to successfully complete the combined agile maneuvering/precision pointing missions. Development has been undertaken on a number of fronts for quietly slewing flexible structures. Various methods for designing slew torque profiles have been investigated. Prime candidates for slew/settle scenarios include Inverse Dynamics and Parameterized Function Space. Joint work with Processor Bayo at the University of California, Santa Barbara and Professor Flashner at the University of Southern California has led to promising torque profile design methods. Active and passive vibration suppression techniques also play a key role for rapid slew/settle mission scenarios. Active members with local control loops and passive members with high loss factor viscoelastic material have been selected for hardware verification. Progress in each of these areas produces large gains in the quiet slewing of flexible spacecraft. The main thrust of the effort to date has been the development of a modular testbed for hardware validation of the precision control concepts. The testbed is a slewing eighteen foot long flexible truss. Active and passive members can be interchanged with the baseline aluminum members to augment the inherent damping in the system. For precision control the active members utilize control laws running on a high speed digital structural control processor. Tip and midspan motions of the truss are determined using optical sensors while accelerometers can be used to monitor the motions of other points of interest. Preliminary results indicate that a mix of technologies produces the greatest benefit. For example, shaping the torque profile produces large improvements in slew/settle performance, but without added damping settling times may still be excessive. With the introduction of moderate amounts of damping, slew/settle performance is vastly improved. On the other hand, introducing damping without shaping the torque profile may not yield the desired level of performance.

Manning, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow.

Reflectivity↗