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At least 55 records · Page 3

Security assessment and impact analysis of cyberattacks in integrated T&D power systems

In this paper, we examine the impact of cyberattacks in an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) power grid model with distributed energy resource (DER) integration. We adopt the OCTAVE Allegro methodology to identify critical system assets, enumerate potential threats, analyze and prioritize risks for threat scenarios. Based on the analysis, attack strategies and exploitation scenarios are identified which could lead to system compromise. Specifically, we investigate the impact of data integrity attacks in inverted-based solar PV controllers, control signal blocking attacks in protective switches and breakers, and coordinated monitoring and switching time-delay attacks. Index Terms—Cyberattacks, security assessment, impact analysis, case studies, integrated power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Smart Composite Pressure Vessels (SCPV) with Integrated Health Monitoring

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is promoting and developing more energy efficient and environmentally friendly technologies that will enable America to use less petroleum. Hydrogen fuel cells – which directly convert the chemical energy in hydrogen to electricity with only water and heat as byproducts – are a very attractive solution that can enable this to happen. To date, DOE's efforts have culminated in commercial demonstration of on-board vehicular hydrogen storage systems that can allow for a driving range of greater than 300 miles. This requires storing 5 Kgs of hydrogen onboard a light vehicle. In order to store this quantity of hydrogen, the hydrogen gas needs to be stored in a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) at a very high internal pressure. The objective of the program was to demonstrate continuous and predictable health-monitoring of composite pressure vessels. A higher confidence in the operational safety of the vessels will lead to reduced burst factor of safety imposed by regulatory standards and hence will help reduce the structural wall thickness that drives the cost of the vessel. Highly optimized Type III (metal lined) and Type IV (polymer lined) COPVs that are manufactured using filament winding process have been designed and qualified for the above mentioned application. However, the main structural component of the COPVs is carbon fiber and the high cost of carbon fiber composite in a pressure vessel is a primary challenge in reducing the cost of gaseous hydrogen storage. Continuous and remote monitoring of structural health of the COPVs as well as optimization of the strength translation of carbon fibers have the potential to allow for reduced factor of safety, thereby reduced amount of carbon and associated cost of the vessel. In the current program, the project team including Steelhead Composites (SHC), University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), Teijin Carbon America, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and LUNA designed, fabricated, and tested smart composite pressure vessels with integrated sensors. Iterative loops of design and testing using coupons, subscale STEB vessels and full size vessels proved that a new generation of high performance carbon fiber can be used for efficient design of Type 3 vessels for H2 storage. Novel analysis techniques were developed to predict the initiation and propagation of interlaminar damage inside the composite shell due to impact damage, a real threat in practical operation. Such an analysis scheme is typically not used in tank design but is an essential tool for health monitoring of composite vessels. Remote sensing of the key signatures of the tank’s operating parameters such as pressure, acceleration and humidity was demonstrated using a unique device that can wirelessly transmit and stream the data to a remote server. Fiber optic sensors were successfully integrated during fabrication of the tanks. These sensors provide a wealth of information regarding the structural health of the vessel when it is subsequently pressurized or subjected to impact damage. Excellent correlation was demonstrated between the fiber optic sensor and mechanical strain gage data, and between the measurements and analytical predictions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluating China's Road to Cyber Super Power

This report examines open source, non-classified qualitative analysis to evaluate China’s current cyber maturity. Evidence for this document draws on materials from academia, private cybersecurity companies, and national security research institutions. Private sector threat intelligence firms produce high quality analysis on Chinese APTs tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), and investigation from companies such as FireEye illuminate China’s ability to wield cyber means for its security ends. None of the materials cited in this assessment originate from classified United States or foreign government sources. Any references to United States government sources are sourced entirely to unclassified information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures

A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Workbook: End-of-Train (EoT) / Head-of-Train (HoT) Communications

This workbook presents a vulnerability (CVE-2025-1727 ) found in train applications and guides a digital risk assessment and mitigation analysis and application of Cyber-Informed Engineering principles to mitigate the potential consequences and ultimately the hazard through the engineering discipline because of exploiting this vulnerability. Workshop participants are encouraged to use the workbook to capture insights and lessons learned. The workbook guides the participant to: • Understand the HE communication vulnerability • Map digital threats to physical consequences • Use bowtie analysis to illustrate both “security” and “engineering” barriers • Apply CIE principles to ensure that even if communications are compromised, the physical engineered system still behaves safely. • Produce an actionable set of engineered and infosec controls for implementation

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Trade-off Analysis of Operational Technologies to Advance Cyber Resilience through Automated and Autonomous Response to Threats

The advancement of cyber resilience requires a preliminary stage of characterizing the trade-off space of mitigation options and how these might affect the stability and determinism of an operational technology (OT). This first step will set the stage for the proper cyber-secure and cyber-resilient design and confirm the affects that can be considered and approved by the OT and the security groups. To provide a baseline for this discussion, this paper provides a consideration of the cyberphysical interactions, possible mitigation steps against certain attacks and their corresponding affects that lend to the security design planning and evaluation process. As an integral part of the proposed scheme this work introduces the concept of systemwide fuzzer, i.e., a tool that manipulates the system state in an effort to determine mitigation response sequences that minimize detriments and maximize benefit in accordance with specified operational requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Notional Chemical Facility PathTrace Modeling Study

This SAND report provides system effectiveness analysis results for notional chemical facilities. Two facilities were analyzed in total, evaluating the effectiveness of the unique security systems in place at each location. Each analysis looked at a range of threat and response capabilities, specific target configurations, and task times to acquire target material in both theft and release scenarios. This report details results for both facilities.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

Health Analysis and Research for Public Events (HARPE) Tool (Final CRADA Report)

Based on its experience in building assessment tools, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) has demonstrated expertise in developing comparative methodologies and question sets that provide both a physical and cyber-based risk assessment for the commercial facilities sector. A high-level risk assessment tool can be beneficial for venues and organizations that fall under a wide array of facility characterizations, ultimately accommodating the evolving landscape of threats specific to these facilities. The Health Analysis and Research for Public Events (HARPE) Tool is an assessment that seeks to help facility managers assess and mitigate aspects of safety, security, and emergency management within their venues. With the pandemic featuring prominently in today’s landscape, we have adapted and extended the scope of the HARPE tool so that it offers users the ability to integrate assessments of their preparation for, response to, and recovery from threats faced at the venue arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional threats and hazards remain prevalent in today’s landscape, and the best defense is a proactive approach to preventing and mitigating these threats. At the very core of prevention and mitigation is the first step of conducting a risk assessment—this is the gap that HARPE fills. While it is obvious that the response to COVID-19 is health and sanitation driven, leaders within the commercial facilities sector must also know where to best extend their efforts in mitigating future threats arising from the pandemic. Public events and mass gatherings are directly impacted by COVID-19; however, with the help of HARPE, leaders can focus their attention on core impact areas related to the safety and security of returning to a new normal, as they assess their risks using the Argonne-developed tool. HARPE provides an important solution to the COVID-19 situation by assisting venue managers and health officials in identifying their risks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In anticipation of improved energy performance and cost savings, cities and building owners are increasingly considering “smart lighting initiatives” that aim to convert their collection of simple luminaires (i.e., lighting fixtures) into an intelligent connected lighting system (CLS) capable of remotely monitoring energy consumption and fault conditions, and possibly implementing adaptive lighting schemes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set an national goal of tripling the energy efficiency and demand flexibility of the buildings sector by 2030, relative to 2020 levels 1. It is forecast that connected lighting systems can contribute to that goal by delivering 125 TWh of annual energy savings by 2035 2, equivalent to the annual output of 50 typical (500 MW) power plants. However, these energy savings and the DOE goal are put at significant risk if connected technologies are not adopted due to real or perceived cybersecurity concerns. Connected IoT devices such as these have historically been rife with vulnerabilities which sometimes put security considerations secondary to functionality and operability. What are the cybersecurity threats that will impact these systems, as formerly banal luminaires transition into intelligent connected devices that collect information about themselves, their surrounding environment, and possibly us? In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement. Fifty-seven threats were identified. Among our key findings: (1) 65% (37/57) of the threats did not involve the luminaires, but rather the other components needed to communicate with and manage them; (2) 63% (36/57) of the threats could have been mitigated through manufacturer-implemented defensive techniques or “controls”; and (3) 23% (13/57) of the threats were dependent on the network configuration. Recommendations based on the results of this work are made to key stakeholder groups. Notably, lighting technology developers are advised to address all threats that can be reasonably controlled with baked-in technology solutions (e.g., encryption or authentication controls), and employ some form of secure supply chain management and tracking where other parts (e.g., sensors, microprocessors) of a luminaire must also be built and manufactured with the proper security controls in place. Developers should also review threats involving assets not developed in-house to understand how connectivity with other devices will affect their product during system operation and determine if a compensating control for a defense-in-depth strategy will be needed. Finally, those interested in deploying CLS should compare the differences between cloud and on-premise models to determine which is more suitable for their needs and the abilities of their security team.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Outages Using an Interaction Graph Addressing Transient Stability

Cascading outages of power systems pose great threats to system security and reliability, potentially leading to large-scale blackouts. For analysis and mitigation of cascading outages, this paper proposes a transient stability-incorporated interaction graph. This graph statistically quantifies the interactions among line outages and instabilities of generators, which can model propagation paths and patterns of cascading outages. Compared with an interaction graph that only models line outages, this new interaction graph provides important insights on how transient instability occurs along with cascading outages. It also offers more effective strategies for mitigating outage propagation. The proposed interaction graph can be constructed from datasets of historical or simulated cascading events. It is demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bus system with mitigation strategies.

Guo, Zhenping↗

The effect of ambient ozone exposure on three types of diabetes: a meta-analysis

Background: Ozone as an air pollutant is gradually becoming a threat to people's health. However, the effect of ozone exposure on risk of developing diabetes, a fast-growing global metabolic disease, remains controversial. Objective: To evaluate the impact of ambient ozone exposure on the incidence rate of type 1, type 2 and gestational diabetes mellitus. Method: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases before July 9, 2022, to determine relevant literature. Data were extracted after quality evaluation according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and the agency for healthcare research and quality (AHRQ) standards, and a meta-analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between ozone exposure and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The heterogeneity test, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were performed using Stata 16.0. Results: Our search identified 667 studies from three databases, 19 of which were included in our analysis after removing duplicate and ineligible studies. Among the remaining studies, three were on T1D, five were on T2D, and eleven were on GDM. The result showed that ozone exposure was positively correlated with T2D [effect size (ES) = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11] and GDM [pooled odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03]. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that ozone exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy might raise the risk of GDM. However, no significant association was observed between ozone exposure and T1D. Conclusion: Long-term exposure to ozone may increase the risk of T2D, and daily ozone exposure during pregnancy was a hazard factor for developing GDM. Decreasing ambient ozone pollution may reduce the burden of both diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evidence-based Graph Adversary Mapping (EGRAM) [Poster]

Cybersecurity companies such as CrowdStrike, Dragos, Microsoft and Unit 42 categorize Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) using their own naming schemes. As a result, these APTs are mapped to different malware sources and campaigns, all from differing sources, leading to inconsistent mapping. Inconsistent mapping causes confusion and adds further obscurity around these groups, making it difficult to track and mitigate APT cyberattacks. The Evidence-based Graph Adversary Mapping (EGRAM) tool remediates the mapping challenge by collecting, updating and converting adversary data and their sources into a valid, codified STIX v2.1 bundle which is then stored in a Neo4j graph database. It utilizes graph traversal methods and centrality analysis to generate actionable information as a Structured Threat Intelligence Graph (STIG), based on user queries. EGRAM exists as Python code and a Jupyter Notebook that acts as a searchable, evidence-based, source of intelligence for APT groups’ artifacts and cyber campaigns.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

ARCADE Analysis Methods & Validation Pathway

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) provides an automated analysis system which supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of nuclear control systems. Every possible cyber threat which could lead to consequence is identified by simulating the unsafe control action sequences which transform digital harm into physical harm. Eliminating the simulation of complex digital cyber attack chains cuts out unnecessary computational overhead and focuses directly on the physics of cyber-physical attacks. This focus enables designers to make informed decisions which can entirely eliminate categories of cyber threats against advanced reactors through the physical nature of the plant design. This narrowing of cyber threat against nuclear power plants through the physics of the system is intended to make any remaining threat management and cost efficient. This is the goal of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands of the rigorous analysis required in Tier 1 of the TCA, which forms the foundation of the TCA process. Currently, ARCADE is still under development, but has made significant leaps in capability. A pilot analysis on the opensource Asherah simulator was performed which demonstrated key functionality goals. The next stage of ARCADE development involves improvements to the applications which support the analysis system, and enabling the analysis system to utilize the full suite of unsafe control action simulations. Since the analysis method’s core functions are complete, validation of the analysis method will be started concurrent to the next development stages. The automated analysis ARCADE will provide can radically change the cybersecurity design process for advanced reactors, reducing the cost of security implementation while enhancing cyber resilience. The pathway for ARCADE’s development to this goal has become much clearer. The majority of technical hurdles have been cleared, and the remaining development needs have been solidified. ARCADE is now capable of assisting the advanced reactor design process and directly support advanced reactor industry RIPB practices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗