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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This final technical report describes the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable solution to the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The technical materials contained in this final report are based on numerous technical papers, which have been previously published by the project team of the NIAC Phase 1 and 2 studies during the past three years. Those technical papers as well as a NIAC Phase 2 Executive Summary report can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗
NASA NTRS1982

Threat perception while viewing single intruder conflicts on a cockpit display of traffic information

Subjective estimates of the threat posed by a single intruder aircraft were determined by showing pilots photographs of a cockpit display of traffic information. The time the intruder was away from the point of minimum separation was found to be the major determinant of the perception of threat. When asked to choose a maneuver to reduce the conflict, pilots selected maneuvers with a bias toward those that would have kept the intruders in sight had they been visible out the cockpit window.

Ellis, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effect of perceived threat on avoidance maneuvers selected while viewing cockpit traffic displays

Ten airline pilots rated the collision danger of air traffic presented on cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) while they monitored simulated departures from Denver. They selected avoidance maneuvers when necessary for separation. Most evasive maneuvers were turns rather than vertical maneuvers. Evasive maneuvers chosen for encounters with low or moderate perceived collision danger were generally toward the intruding aircraft. This tendency lessened as the perceived threat level increased. In the highest threat situations pilots turned toward the intruder only at chance levels. Some of the implications of the pilots' turning-towards tendencies are discussed with respect to automatic collision avoidance systems and coordination of avoidance maneuvers of conflicting aircraft.

Smith, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Perceived threat and avoidance maneuvers in response to cockpit traffic displays

Airline pilots rated their perception of the danger of an air-to-air collision based on cockpit displays of traffic information while they monitored simulated departures. They selected avoidance maneuvers when necessary for separation. Most evasive maneuvers were turns rather than vertical maneuvers. Evasive maneuvers chosen for encounters with lowor moderate-collision danger were generally toward the intruding aircraft. This tendency lessened as the perceived threat level increased. In the highest threat situations, pilots turned toward the intruder only at chance levels. Intruders coming from positions in front of the pilot's ship were more frequently avoided by turns toward than when intruders approached laterally or from behind. Some of the implications of the pilot's turning-toward tendencies are discussed with respect to automatic collision avoidance systems and coordination of avoidance maneuvers of conflicting aircraft.

Smith, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Lightning threat extent of a small thunderstorm

The concern for safety of the personnel at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has caused NASA to promulgate strict safety procedures requiring either termination or substantial curtailment when ground lightning threat is believed to exist within 9.3 km of a covered operation. In cases where the threat is overestimated, in either space or time, an opportunity cost is accrued. This paper describes a small thunderstorm initiated over the KSC by terrain effects, that serves to exemplify the impact such an event may have on ground operations at the Center. Data from the Air Force Lightning Location and Protection System, the AF/NASA Launch Pad Lightning Warning System field mill network, radar, and satellite imagery are used to describe the thunderstorm and to discuss its impact.

Nicholson, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lightning threat to aircraft: Do we know all we need to know?

The problem of lightning threat to aircraft has two aspects: strike avoidance and aircraft protection. These two issues are addressed under the following topics: (1) lightning strikes, weather conditions, and natural lightning rate; (2) the engineering vs. scientific approach to aircraft protection; and (3) the additional information needed to understand lightning threat to aircraft.

Mazur, Vladislav↗
NASA NTRS1997

Lightning Threat Analysis for the Space Shuttle Launch Pad and the Payload Changeout Room Using Finite Difference Methods

This report describes finite difference computer calculations for the Space Shuttle Launch Pad which predict lightning induced electric currents and electric and magnetic fields caused by a lightning strike to the Lightning Protection System caternary wire. Description of possible lightning threats to Shuttle Payload components together with specifications for protection of these components, result from the calculation of lightning induced electric and magnetic fields inside and outside the during a lightning event. These fields also induce currents and voltages on cables and circuits which may be connected to, or a part of, shuttle payload components. These currents and voltages are also calculated. These threat levels are intended as a guide for designers of payload equipment to specify any shielding and/or lightning protection mitigation which may be required for payload components which are in the process of preparation or being transferred into the Shuttle Orbiter.

Collier, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Meteoroids and Meteor Storms: A Threat to Spacecraft

Robust system design is the best protection against meteoroid damage. Impacts by small meteoroids are common on satellite surfaces, but impacts by meteoroids large enough to damage well designed systems are very rare. Estimating the threat from the normal meteoroid environment is difficult. Estimates for the occasional "storm" are even more uncertain. Common sense precautions are in order for the 1999 Leonids, but wide-spread catastrophic damage is highly unlikely. Strong Leonid showers are also expected in 2000 and 2001, but these pose much less threat than 1999.

Anderson, B. Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the MPS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the BEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the NMS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the hEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Potential of VIIRS Data for Regional Monitoring of Gypsy Moth Defoliation: Implications for Forest Threat Early Warning System

A NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment was conducted to assess the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) data for monitoring non-native gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) defoliation of forests. This experiment compares defoliation detection products computed from simulated VIIRS and from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) time series products as potential inputs to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) being developed for the USFS (USDA Forest Service). Gypsy moth causes extensive defoliation of broadleaved forests in the United States and is specifically identified in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003. The HFRA mandates development of a national forest threat EWS. This system is being built by the USFS and NASA is aiding integration of needed satellite data products into this system, including MODIS products. This RPC experiment enabled the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, to be evaluated as a data source for EWS forest monitoring products. The experiment included 1) assessment of MODIS-simulated VIIRS NDVI products, and 2) evaluation of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from MODIS-simulated VIIRS and from MODIS NDVI time series data. This experiment employed MODIS data collected over the approximately 15 million acre mid-Appalachian Highlands during the annual peak defoliation time frame (approximately June 10 through July 27) during 2000-2006. NASA Stennis Application Research Toolbox software was used to produce MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and NASA Stennis Time Series Product Tool software was employed to process MODIS and MODIS-simulated VIIRS time series data scaled to planetary reflectance. MODIS-simulated VIIRS data was assessed through comparison to Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data using data collected during gypsy moth defoliation. Hyperion-simulated MODIS data showed a high correlation with actual MODIS data (NDVI R2 of 0.877 and RMSE of 0.023). MODIS-simulated VIIRS data for the same date showed moderately high correlation with Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data (NDVI R2 of 0.62 and RMSE of 0.035), even though the datasets were collected about a half an hour apart during changing weather conditions. MODIS products (MOD02, MOD09, and MOD13) and MOD02-simulated VIIRS time series data were used to generate defoliation mapping products based on image classification and image differencing change detection techniques. Accuracy of final defoliation mapping products was assessed by image interpreting over 170 randomly sampled locations found on Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS. The MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) to the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (86.71 percent with 0.71 Kappa). In addition, the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDVI showed good user and producer accuracies for the defoliated forest class (70 percent) and acceptable Kappa values (0.66). MOD02 and MOD02-simulated VIIRS data both showed promise as data sources for regional monitoring of forest disturbance due to insect defoliation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be developed. The USFS (USDA Forest Service) is currently building this EWS. NASA is helping the USFS to integrate remotely sensed data into the EWS, including MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for contribution to the EWS. In doing so, the RPC project employed multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria despar). Gypsy moth is an invasive species threatening eastern U.S. hardwood forests. It is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including carbon management, ecological forecasting, coastal management, and disaster management

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

Winters, Katherine A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of CSIRT/SOC Incidents and Continuous Monitoring of Threats

Security Operations Centers (SOC) contain a wealth of data which, if properly classified and tagged upfront, can yield a wealth of real-time information about your organizations IT Security posture, risks, and threats. These include answers to relevant and actionable questions such as: What are our biggest threats? Who is attacking us and what do they want? What controls are working or not working? How effective was the new technology we just implemented? What is our ROI?

Wang, John↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

U.S. forests occupy approx. 751 million acres (approx. 1/3 of total land). These forests are exposed to multiple biotic and abiotic threats that collectively damage extensive acreages each year. Hazardous forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest monitoring products are needed to aid forest management and decision making by the US Forest Service and its state and private partners. Daily MODIS data products provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis. In response, we began work in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat early warning system (EWS)

Spruce, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2015

Overview of Threats and Failure Models for Safety-Relevant Computer-Based Systems

This document presents a high-level overview of the threats to safety-relevant computer-based systems, including (1) a description of the introduction and activation of physical and logical faults; (2) the propagation of their effects; and (3) function-level and component-level error and failure mode models. These models can be used in the definition of fault hypotheses (i.e., assumptions) for threat-risk mitigation strategies. This document is a contribution to a guide currently under development that is intended to provide a general technical foundation for designers and evaluators of safety-relevant systems.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗
NASA NTRS2014

Cyber Threat Assessment of Uplink and Commanding System for Mission Operation

Most of today's Mission Operations Systems (MOS) rely on Ground Data System (GDS) segment to mitigate cyber security risks. Unfortunately, IT security design is done separately from the design of GDS' mission operational capabilities. This incoherent practice leaves many security vulnerabilities in the system without any notice. This paper describes a new way to system engineering MOS, to include cyber threat risk assessments throughout the MOS development cycle, without this, it is impossible to design a dependable and reliable MOS to meet today's rapid changing cyber threat environment.

ground data↗