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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Ransomware Security Threat Modeling for Photovoltaic Systems

Ransomware attacks are one of the most dangerous cyber-attacks which can disrupt the operation of photovoltaic (PV) systems and incur an enormous economic loss. This paper introduces a ransomware security threat modeling method that identifies potential vulnerabilities, threats, and impacts of ransomware attacks targeting a PV system. Here, the security threat modeling consists of three steps: 1) system identification, 2) threat modeling that finds existing vulnerabilities, 3) attack modeling that designs attack profiles to succeed ransomware attacks, and 4) penetration testing that performs authorized cyber-attacks and analyzes impacts of the ransomware attack profiles using a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) PV system security testbed.

attack modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Threat Reduction Research Networks: Fostering Sustainable Collaborations Through Trainings for Genomics for Biosurveillance

Scientific research communities can be represented as heterogeneous or multidimensional networks encompassing multiple types of entities and relationships. These networks might include researchers, institutions, meetings, and publications, connected by relationships like authorship, employment, and attendance. We describe a method for efficiently and flexibly capturing, storing, and extracting information from multidimensional scientific networks using a graph database. The database structure is based on an ontology that captures allowable types of entities and relationships. This allows us to construct a variety of projections of the underlying multidimensional graph through database queries to answer specific research questions. We demonstrate this process through a study of the U.S. Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP), which seeks to develop Threat Reduction Networks to build and strengthen a sustainable international community of biosecurity, biosafety, and biosurveillance experts to address shared biological threat reduction challenges. Networks like these create connectional intelligence among researchers and institutions around the world, and are central to the concept of cooperative threat reduction. Our analysis focuses on a series of seven BTRP genome sequencing training workshops, showing how they created a growing network of participants and countries over time, which is also reflected in coauthorship relationships among attendees. By capturing concept and relationship hierarchies, our ontology-based approach allows us to pose general or specific questions about networks within the same framework. This approach can be applied to other research communities or multidimensional social networks to capture, analyze, and visualize different types of interactions and how they change over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Domestic Extremism: How to Counter Threats Posed to Critical Assets

Although facilities with sensitive information, hazardous materials, critical infrastructure, or other sensitive items have security measures in place to protect those critical assets, the threat of domestic extremism (DE) has challenged those security measures in new ways. The project described in this brief report used focus groups to identify best practices, tools, or techniques relevant to preventing or countering DE and sought to identify gaps in security measures. Five focus groups with twenty-two subject matter experts from government, healthcare, and other stakeholder groups were conducted to understand how organizations protect critical assets against the DE threat. The results of the focus groups underscore the importance of organizational culture, codes of conduct, and behavior observation programs in prevention of DE events. In addition, results emphasized the value of multidisciplinary teams, employee assistance programs, and regular threat assessment as resources when responding to DE incidents. However, monitoring of social media and lack of adequate resources remain challenges when attempting to prevent or counter the DE threat.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Critical steps in preventing future pandemics. Early lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for addressing natural and deliberate biological threats.

This report summarizes a virtual workshop on early lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic as they pertain to proactively addressing future biological threats. Co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratory (Sandia) and the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) in August 2020, the discussion involved experts who at that time were leading innovative efforts in various U.S. government agencies, industry, and academia sharing observations from their ongoing pandemic response efforts. Based on the input by these expert participants, it is clear that even though the pandemic response is ongoing, the following recommendations will be important to consider for more successfully addressing biological threats in the future: Continue building on the cross-sector collaboration and agility shown in the COVID-19 response; Expand capabilities for detecting biological threats early; Prioritize ways to create and disseminate medical countermeasures even faster; Create the U.S. bio industrial base needed for rapid response to biological threats, and keep it healthy; and, Major government reorganization may not be needed if there is effective work to form coalitions, improve coordination, and expand steady-state and surge capacities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

FIC Threat Profile: Provided by Shamrock Cyber

The FIC team has engaged with PNNL’s Shamrock Cyber Team to produce this Threat Profile. The Threat Profile provides the foundation for a thorough understanding of threats for development teams and stakeholders, and users of the system. The Threat Profile can be used as is, or as content to inform other reports tailored to a specific audience. It is intended to enable decision makers at all levels to improve the security posture of the system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Nuclear Power Plant (Rev. 1)

With threats to nuclear facilities continuously evolving, the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs (ITMPs) are increasingly important. The Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA’s) developed Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Nuclear Power Plant to assist newcomers and existing nuclear power plant (NPP) operators in addressing insider threats and establishing effective response measures for insider activities.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Watching for light: An enterprise roadmap for trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW) to protect national assets

Comprehensive space force protection must include effective and trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW). Effective LTW will detect and characterize threats to space assets and thus enhance space deterrence. LTW must be trustworthy: able to categorize threats and non-threats by being both sensitive to true events and resistant to false alarms. Outside of the laboratory, the statistics and even the roles of lasers become unclear. In the chain of events leading to an attack, the laser may be the last link to be understood. Human situational awareness and informal reasoning must blend statistics with circumstantial evidence to visualize these chains before they are clear. This paper sets out an industrial model for an enterprise that will routinely produce trustworthy LTW. By incorporating psychology and economics, this enterprise can overcome the difficulties and perils of cooperation in networked defense and intelligence. This roadmap suggests how the enterprise can incentivize distracted actors with different goals to share what they know and coordinate what they do.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1972

Contamination threats to critical surfaces from handling and storage practices.

Review of the procedures and results of a program designed to remove the threat of sources of molecular and particulate contamination of critical optical, electrical, and mechanical elements in spacecraft. The results of recent contamination-probing thermal-vacuum tests indicate that some of the materials and practices commonly used to protect critical surfaces from molecular or particulate contamination can themselves represent significant threats. These contamination sources include clean-room and clean-tent materials, gloves, tissues, and covering or packaging materials. Mass and infrared spectral analyses of these materials and the environments and instruments exposed to them show that the contaminants are mostly plasticizers, slip or antistatic agents, and binders used in the manufacture of these products. Products of particular threat include vinyl gloves, boots, clean-tent walls, and some polyethylene sheets and bags. Techniques for reducing these threats are discussed.

Poehlmann, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Space Station crew safety alternatives study. Volume 2: Threat development

The first 15 years of accumulated space station concepts for initial operational capability (IOC) during the early 1990's were considered. Twenty-five threats to the space station are identified and selected threats addressed as impacting safety criteria, escape and rescue, and human factors safety concerns. Of the 25 threats identified, eight are discussed including strategy options for threat control: fire, biological or toxic contamination, injury/illness, explosion, loss of pressurization, radiation, meteoroid penetration, and debris.

Raasch, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Assessment of pilot workload with the introduction of an airborne threat-alert system

Simulated line operations were used to assess the value of the TCAS on the pilot's ability to avoid a collision and to determine the effects of various display configurations and information contents on the flight-crew performance and workload. The crew flew a Phase II Link/Boeing 727 simulator in a simulated ATC environment. Four levels of collision avoidance information were evaluated using the following TCAS display formats: no TCAS information, TCAS information with no traffic display information, TCAS information with threat-activated traffic display information, and TCAS information with a full-time traffic display of threat information. It was found that the use of a threat-activated TCAS display significantly reduced the first officers' workload was significantly reduced by the threat-activated TCAS display, as were the workloads of the captain and the second officer.

Battiste, Vernol↗

NASA NTRS2005

Design, Development, and Innovation of an Interactive Multimedia Training Simulator for Responding to Air Transportation Bomb Threats

This paper describes an interactive multimedia simulator for air transportation bomb threat training. The objective of this project is to improve the air transportation sector s capability to respond to bomb threats received by commercial airports and aircraft. The simulator provides realistic training on receiving and responding to a variety of bomb threats that might not otherwise be possible due to time, cost, or operational constraints. Validation analysis indicates that the use of the simulator resulted in statistically significant increases in individual ability to respond to these types of bomb threats.

Chung, Christopher A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. This FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each forest change product in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composite NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 years and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables disturbance anomaly phenology to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service maintained by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. The FCAV EWS has been used to aid multiple Federal and State agency forest management activities, including aerial disturbance detection surveys, as well as rapid response preliminary assessments of timber loss due to tornadoes, regional drought studies, and fire damage assessments. The FCAV allows end-users to assess the context of apparent forest vegetation change with respect to ancillary data, such as land cover, topography, hydrology, climate variables, and administrative boundaries. Such change products are being evaluated through case studies involving comparison with higher spatial resolution satellite, aerial, and field data. The presentation will include multiple examples in which regionally evident forest disturbances were successfully detected and monitored with the MODIS-based change products, as part of the FCAV. FCAV's MODIS forest change products enable end-users (e.g., resource managers) to monitor forest hazards at regional scales throughout the year and across the nation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Laser Remediation of Threats Posed by Small Orbital Debris

The continually increasing amount of orbital debris in near Earth space poses an increasing challenge to space situational awareness. Recent collisions of spacecraft caused abrupt increases in the density of both large and small debris in near Earth space. An especially challenging class of threats is that due to the increasing density of small (1 mm to 10 cm dimension) orbital debris. This small debris poses a serious threat since: (1) The high velocity enables even millimeter dimension debris to cause serious damage to vulnerable areas of space assets, e.g., detector windows; (2) The small size and large number of debris elements prevent adequate detection and cataloguing. We have identified solutions to this threat in the form of novel laser systems and novel ways of using these laser systems. While implementation of the solutions we identify is challenging we find approaches offering threat mitigation within time frames and at costs of practical interest. We base our analysis on the unique combination of coherent light specifically structured in both space and time and applied in novel ways entirely within the vacuum of space to deorbiting small debris. We compare and contrast laser based small debris removal strategies using ground based laser systems with strategies using space based laser systems. We find laser systems located and used entirely within space offer essential and decisive advantages over groundbased laser systems.

Fork, Richard L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

R2U2: Monitoring and Diagnosis of Security Threats for Unmanned Aerial Systems

We present R2U2, a novel framework for runtime monitoring of security properties and diagnosing of security threats on-board Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). R2U2, implemented in FPGA hardware, is a real-time, REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, UNOBTRUSIVE Unit for security threat detection. R2U2 is designed to continuously monitor inputs from the GPS and the ground control station, sensor readings, actuator outputs, and flight software status. By simultaneously monitoring and performing statistical reasoning, attack patterns and post-attack discrepancies in the UAS behavior can be detected. R2U2 uses runtime observer pairs for linear and metric temporal logics for property monitoring and Bayesian networks for diagnosis of security threats. We discuss the design and implementation that now enables R2U2 to handle security threats and present simulation results of several attack scenarios on the NASA DragonEye UAS.

Formal Methods↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A COVID-19 Study

ASRS↗