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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure of Offshore Low-Level Jet Turbulence and Implications to Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling

This paper explores realistic nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence arising from nonstationarity at the mesoscale, particularly within offshore low-level jets with implications to offshore wind farms, using high-fidelity multiscale large-eddy simulations (LES). To this end, we analyzed the single-point turbulence statistical structure of a North-Atlantic offshore LLJ event simulated using high-resolution LES (AMR-Wind). The nonstationary LLJ is simulated using a mesoscale-to-microscale coupled (MMC) simulation procedure involving data assimilation of mesoscale velocity and temperature data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike the assimilation of mesoscale velocity data into the LES, the direct assimilation of temperature profiles had a strong impact on turbulence stratification, thereby causing erroneous predictions of turbulence both above and within the jet layer. Various approaches to mitigate this effect have resulted in multiple (four) variants of this MMC strategy. Outcomes from this work clearly show that the turbulence within the low-level jet is a strong function of the MMC approach as the turbulence structure within the low-level jet is dependent on the flux of residual turbulence from outside the jet, which in turn depends on the temperature forcing history. Additionally, the turbulence predicted by all these different methods (as well as the observation data) show similar deviations from equilibrium as evidenced by comparisons with idealized atmospheric turbulence structure obtained using the same numerical method. In general, we observe that the predicted LLJ turbulence tends to differ from canonical ABL turbulence with comparable shear. Particularly, the combination of shear and turbulence observed in such nonstationary low-level turbulence cannot be matched using equilibrium settings and therefore, represents a critical use-case for both testing and leveraging meso–micro coupling strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau 1998 Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies

This work follows up on the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiments, a community effort highlighting the spring land surface temperature anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a useful source for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of summer precipitation in global hot spot regions, particularly in East Asia and North America. This paper extends the investigation to both the US Rocky Mountain (RM) region and the TP, considering the 1998 summer drought/flood event in North America/East Asia, respectively, as a case study. A previously developed initialization method for land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) is used in the NCEP Global Forecast System, coupled with a land model, SSiB2 (GFS/SSiB2), to produce observed RM cold May temperature anomaly. Forward simulation yields June precipitation anomalies at five remote locations. Likewise, the TP warm May temperature anomaly also produces June precipitation anomalies at these five locations. The effects of RM (cold) and TP (warm) temperature anomalies are consistent in the US South Coastal regions and the south Yangtze River Basin, yielding 49% (42%) of observed drought and 34% (44%) of observed flood, respectively. These LST/SUBT effects in RM and TP induce a global large-scale wave train linking North America with the TP, affecting the subtropical westerly jet and thereby modulating summer precipitation. Global SST effect is examined for comparison but does not yield statistically significant June precipitation anomalies in GFS/SSiB2. Furthermore, this study adds to evidence that high-mountain LST effects in the RM and TP are first-order sources of S2S precipitation predictability in summer months.

Nayak, Hara Prasad [University of California, Los ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Driven, Site-Specific Weather Forecasting for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Preprint

Emerging grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have great potential to provide much-needed demand flexibility to electric grids while fulfilling their own control targets by co-optimizing smart appliances, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage at buildings. To enable the optimal operation of GEBs, site-specific weather information—such as temperature, solar irradiance, relative humidity, and wind speed—is crucial; however, this information is generally unavailable or expensive to obtain. This paper develops advanced machine learning methods to provide precise weather forecasts for individual building sites using readily available weather station data. Support vector regression and artificial neural networks have been employed to learn the spatiotemporal correlations between the weather conditions at nearby weather stations and the individual building site. The proposed site-specific weather forecasting methods have been validated using 1-year actual weather measurement data collected in the Denver metro area. Results show that the developed machine-learning-driven methods can accurately forecast the temperature at the target building site 1 hour ahead with mean absolute error less than 0.72°C and a 48% improvement over the persistence method. Site-specific weather forecasts will improve the understanding of the microclimate effect and its impact on building energy consumption. This information will drive efficiency upgrades and adjustments of building control strategies to improve energy savings and increase flexibility in building loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power system load flexibility forecasting

The example embodiments are directed to a system and method for forecasting load flexibility of a power grid. In one example, the method includes receiving temperature values associated with temperature set points of a plurality of loads that are included on a power grid, forecasting a flexibility of the plurality of loads using a polynomial-time mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) optimization based on the received temperature values for the plurality of loads, and outputting information about the forecasted flexibility for display to a display device. The MINLP optimization performs the forecasting of the load flexibility on a fine-grained basis in comparison to conventional methods and is still fast enough that it can be computed in real-time.

Genc, Sahika↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A First Principles Approach to Spectral Phonon Transport in Heterostructures

Understanding thermal transport across interfaces which give rise to a thermal resistance (also known as Kapitza resistance) is a critical issue affecting the development of nanotechnologies. Much modern and emergent nanotechnology consist of adjacent materials, and phonon mediated heat transfer governs thermal behavior across internal interfaces in these devices. The physics of thermal transport in solids are governed both by phenomena occurring at the atomic scale and interactions with the material's microstructure. The forecasting of fundamental quantities such as temperature, heat flux and thermal conductivity typically employs the semi-classical Boltzmann transport equation to predict the macroscopic behavior of materials in terms of the microscopic dynamics of its heat carriers. Kapitza resistance was first discovered in liquid helium experiments and has led to a fundamental research thrust in micro and nano-scale heat transport, the behavior of thermal carriers across internal interfaces. Thermal interfacial resistance (TIR) is a widely studied phenomenon, first engaged by Swartz and Pohl through their development of the acoustic and diffuse mismatch methods, then continued through myriad efforts with varying methods and approaches in an attempt to resolve carrier behavior at thermal interfaces. Many of the fundamental approaches to TIR have been at the nanoscale, and research is conducted with molecular dynamics (MD) and density functional theory (DFT) methods. The limitations of these methods is system size; atomistic methods tend to be limited to system sizes of 100,000 atoms or less. Larger length-scale methods have also been pursued, based on the principles of acoustic or diffuse mismatch, but not all include simulation of TIR using a full phonon band spectrum, or temperature dependent methods. Our approach to enabling phonon transport in layered materials draws upon our previous work of demonstrating spectrally coupled phonon transport in homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. We use a semi-analytical approach in which the Bose-Einstein (B-E) statistics set the strength of the phonon radiance in a frequency group, but the B-E statistics are informed with information from the transport system. The B-E statistics in a single frequency group feels the influence of all the groups through the spatial temperature. We also include a new field term which is an indicator of the amount of non-equilibrium behavior of the phonon spectrum---this is added to the phonon source term in all groups to ensure closure and conservation of energy, as the phonon groups in the transport system and the analytical systems are coupled. This work builds upon our previous approach by adding a phonon coupling term at an internal interface, using the principles of the DMM through transmission and reflection coefficients. In this work, the coefficients are determined through computing a common temperature at the interface, influenced by the phonon band structure of both materials, in effect, providing mixing between the two material systems and using the common temperature to set the strength of the phonon radiance at the boundaries on either side of the interface. Our approach uses material properties computed along various crystallographic orientations, and while some isotropy is built into the interface condition, the material properties weight the phonon distributions in the proper crystalline direction. Greater resolution of phonon behavior in proximity to an interface, and more accurate predictions of TIR are obtained. While it is true the assumption of diffuse mismatch can yield inconsistent results compared to experiment especially at low temperatures, this work focuses on room temperature and beyond effects, for future applications in nuclear fuel, or thermoelectric devices; a modified mismatch approach may be feasible if applied properly. Additionally, our methods focus on bridging mesoscale to engineering scale

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Rangeland Plant Production in the California Annual Grassland

Seasonal precipitation and temperature directly affect total plant production in the California Annual Grassland (CAG). Technological advances have resulted in skillful seasonal climate forecasts (i.e., significant correlations between actual and forecasted climate), which could be input into plant production models to inform stocking and other rangeland management decisions. This study presents a procedure for forecasting plant production in the CAG ecosystem to predict annual plant production for grazing, restoration, or other rangeland management practices using a combination of historical gridMET climate data and seasonal hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble program). Further, the results of this study first confirmed high forecast skill, throughout the growing season at all sites. We also identified skillful plant production forecasts across most of the growing season at two sites and in three of the seven forecasting months at one study site. Forecasting climate and end-of-year plant production across the growing season at three CAG sites allowed us to identify the places and times in the growing season when forecasting might be most helpful in informing management decisions. Integrating plant production forecasting into rangeland management practices could significantly improve rangeland management outcomes. These procedures provide a user guide for creating plant production forecasts for any given area of interest and may be applicable across a wide range of other agricultural and rangeland management systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forte: An Interactive Visual Analytic Tool for Trust-Augmented Net-Load Forecasting

Accurate net-load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net-load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net-load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of data assimilation in the Polar WRF with 3DVAR on the prediction of radiation, heat flux, cloud, and near surface atmospheric variables over Svalbard

Although the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model has been developed for polar environments, simulations of atmospheric states in the polar region still have large uncertainties. Therefore, the effects of data assimilation (DA) to improve forecasts in the polar region were investigated for September 2017 using PWRF and the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA method. The experiments without DA and those with DA assimilating only conventional observations and both conventional observations and satellite radiance data were performed. The forecasts from all experiments both without and with DA underestimated (overestimated) the downward longwave (shortwave) radiation flux due to the underestimation of the amount of Arctic clouds. When satellite radiance data (i.e., the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS)) were assimilated in addition to conventional observations in the PWRF, the distribution and amount of water vapor became closer to observations, which improves cloud liquid water forecasts. Therefore, when both conventional observations and radiance data were assimilated, the 25–30 h forecast errors of the downward longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes and sensible and latent heat fluxes decreased by 12.7%, 8.1%, 3.2%, and 7.8% with the WSM5 scheme and by 17.1%, 4.7%, 2.5%, and 3.1% with the 2-moment Morrison scheme, respectively, compared to those in the experiments without DA. The forecast errors of the 10 m wind and 2 m temperature with DA were smaller than those without DA at most observation stations. Therefore, the uncertainties of the Arctic forecasts in the PWRF decreased when using DA. To further improve Arctic forecasts, the assimilation of various additional satellite data is necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗