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Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

WholeTraveler Anonymized Data Phase 1

Phase 1 of the WholeTraveler Study data collection consisted of an online-only survey. This survey captured data on three categories of observable variation in the population relevant to transportation decisions. First, the survey collected traditional demographic data such as age, gender, income, and education level. Second, it collected data across personality, psychological, and preference categories. This included: 1. The "Big Five" inventory personality traits: openness to new experience, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism; 2. Risk and time preferences; and 3. Environmental preferences. Third, the survey collected data on historical behavior patterns including: 1. Adoption of (as well as interest in) new technologies or innovations (e.g., smartphones, PEVs, solar panels, adaptive cruise control [ACC]); 2. Car ownership history and current car ownership status; 3. Recent mode use across different time scales (e.g., previous week, previous month, previous year); and 4. Timing of major life events such as starting a family as well as overall lifecycle trajectory patterns. Data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 are linked by a unique respondent identifier. Anonymized versions of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 data are both available on Livewire.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A dataset for understanding self-reported patterns influencing residential energy decisions

Household occupant behavior and decision-making dynamics substantially impact technology uptake and residential building energy performance. Although significant research underscores the importance of social science in energy studies, few public data with representative samples on household energy decision-making patterns are available. The dataset (UPGRADE-E: Understanding Patterns Guiding Residential Adoption and Decisions about Energy Efficiency) presents 9,919 responses from U.S. residents of single-family and small multifamily homes. Derived from a national-scale internet survey, the dataset contains 391 variables: demographics, building characteristics, home modifications, willingness to adopt new technologies, motivations for making changes, barriers, program participation, trusted information sources, and energy scenarios. Responses were validated via internal consistency checks and comparison with other U.S. national scale datasets. UPGRADE-E advances knowledge of household energy related decision-making, tying demographics, home modifications, and self-reported cognitive drivers together at a scale and breadth that has not been previously achieved. Policymakers and researchers at local, regional, and national levels may leverage this dataset to understand drivers influencing the adoption of key technologies in U.S. homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Human Subjects in Energy Technology and Policy Research (Symposium Report)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has a unique and wide-ranging research portfolio. One focus of the department’s research mission is to develop and promote the adoption of technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and result in renewable and clean energy for the country. This research encompasses a surprisingly diverse array of studies, many of which involve the inclusion of human participants that go beyond traditional biomedical investigations. For example, individuals play an important role in DOE research on clean energy sources, development and testing of new energy-efficient technologies, and partnerships with local communities for equitable climate solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NSTTF Voucher Program RPPR-1 (Final Report)

Sandia issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from industry, academia, research laboratories, government agencies, and individuals on the use of the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) to increase CSP technology market adoption across the United States. The voucher funds will be used to cover the cost of NSTTF test facilities usage and technical staff support for analysis, design and test planning and execution. Sandia will collect submitted proposals, coordinate their review through DOE SETO, and work in partnership or under contract with the applicants to complete the funded research. Through this program, participants will be supported in their use of the world class facilities and expertise available at the NSTTF at Sandia in Albuquerque, NM to accelerate the advancement of CST technologies toward meeting 2030 SETO goals for CSP. The goals of this semi-annual reporting period were to complete all administrative tasks and contracting, begin testing on three of the vouchers, and report on initial findings. The fourth voucher (University of Michigan) is predicated on the results of an ongoing heat exchanger test that is expected to conclude by the end of FY22.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

T-Type Modular DC Circuit Breaker (T-Breaker) for Future DC Networks

The developed T-Type Modular DC Circuit Breaker (T-Breaker) technology offers an all-in-one solution to challenges in DC networks. This includes swift fault detection and protection, power transient stability, and power quality improvement, achieved through the utilization of wide bandgap (WBG) power semiconductors and energy storage devices. The T-Breaker not only facilitates rapid fault current detection and interruption but also implements fault current limiting through active insertion of storage devices or by operating WBG devices in the saturation region. Additionally, with the assistance of energy storage devices, potential overvoltage issues on power devices induced by control signal misalignment can be mitigated. The T-Breaker can be regulated to perform shunt current injection/absorption using the vertical arm and series voltage insertion via the horizontal arm, thereby enhancing DC system stability during voltage or load power fluctuation transients. The OSU team and Raytheon team actively worked together on designing, fabricating, assembling, and testing of two T-Breaker prototypes. The first prototype is rated at 1 kV, 500 A with half-bridge (unipolar) structure to validate the T-Breaker concept. The second prototype is rated at 20 kV, 50 A with full-bridge (bipolar) topology which can reach an efficiency of 99.977%, realize a power density of 60.2 MW/m3, and eliminate the 500-A fault current with a fault response time of around 20 µs. The prototypes show great feasibility of adopting this technology in multiple applications including electrified aircraft, super charging stations, data centers, etc.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of additive manufacturing side channels for nuclear nonproliferation applications

The nuclear industry is continuing to grow and adopt new technologies to manufacture components. One of the technologies under consideration is additive manufacturing (AM). AM could make production of components at lower cost and could lessen lead times significantly. However, AM could be prone to proliferation risks. AM machines give off signatures during the manufacturing process, and these signatures offer an alternative means of observing the component. Correlations between these signatures and the geometry being manufactured could be developed; enabling proliferators as they could take advantage of these correlations to steal AM manufacturing instructions relating to nuclear technology. This work pertains to preliminary work exploring the feasibility of tapping into AM side channels to predict geometries being manufactured on AM machines. The feasibility of utilizing vibration to draw geometric correlations will be assessed on an Ultimaker 2 + thermoplastic 3D printer.

Additive manufacturing↗

Integrated soft snake robot for gamma spectroscopy of radiologically contaminated ducting

Anticipated growth in the number and complexity of nuclear facilities entering the decommissioning phase of their lifespan requires innovative methods of mitigating radiological and safety hazards for workers. Advancements in robotics provide opportunities for remote characterization of radiologically contaminated ducts and pipes, reducing worker exposure. However, the nuclear decommissioning industry has shown a hesitancy in adopting new technology due to concerns regarding capital costs and a lack of demonstration data in representative environments. This work aims to leverage novel soft robotics to develop and demonstrate a sensor-integrated characterization tool for contaminated ducting systems. Two gamma spectrometers – one scintillation-based and one solid-state – were selected and integrated into a pneumatically-actuated snake-like soft robot using stretchable electronic cabling. The robot was then demonstrated at the Idaho National Laboratory’s Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex. The robot maneuvered through a pseudo-constrained corridor containing several sealed sources and the integrated spectrometers collected spectra at various points along the path of travel. Both spectrometers successfully collected spectra with identifiable, isotope-specific peaks. To evaluate the effect of contamination buildup on the collected spectra, the robot with the integrated scintillation detector was tested using a liquid radioactive source. The resulting spectra showed little detection interference from the liquid contamination; however, a short-lived isotope was used which may not be representative of longer-lived contamination.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Influence of functional additives, fillers, and pigments on thermal and catalytic pyrolysis of polyethylene for waste plastic upcycling

Pyrolysis offers a relatively green and economical method to convert waste plastics into valuable chemicals and fuels without the need for harmful solvents, toxic chemicals, or costly high-pressure reactors. Despite its popularity among chemical upcycling technologies, industrial adoption suffers from feedstock heterogeneity, low-quality products, and catalyst deactivation. Most plastics in our daily lives are formulated with functional additives, fillers, and colorants. These additives remaining in end-of-life waste streams increase feedstock heterogeneity, creating a challenging issue in recycling plastics. Still, the potential impacts of additives on the chemical upcycling of plastics have been poorly understood. In this study, polyethylene compounded with a range of widely used additives (antioxidants, stabilizers, pigments, fillers, slip agents, and flame retardants) was subjected to both thermal pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis in different catalyst-to-feedstock contact modes. It showed that many inorganic additives, such as talc, kaolin, CaCO 3 , TiO 2 , carbon black, and zinc stearate, facilitated polymer decomposition during pyrolysis, increasing light hydrocarbons while also promoting aromatic and carbon residue formation. Conversely, antioxidants and stabilizers inhibited depolymerization, favoring heavier hydrocarbons. During catalytic pyrolysis with HZSM-5 zeolite, additives strongly enhanced aromatic and catalytic coke formation, especially when there was direct contact between plastics and catalysts. Although certain additives seem beneficial in the short term by promoting polymer cracking and improving the selectivity of aromatics, the transport of the additives and their degradation products and increased carbon coking can contaminate products, deactivate or modify catalysts, and foul reactors. These findings address a critical knowledge gap in effectively converting waste plastics via a greener route.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing↗

Evi-Pro Lite API

This application programing interface provides output from NLR's EVI-Pro model and is used to power the EVI-Pro Lite tool at https://afdc.energy.gov/evi-pro-lite. These endpoints provide daily (24-hour) fleet-level charging load profiles for a variety of customizable scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗