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DOE OSTI2025

Quantum sensing for emerging energy technologies

The ability to exploit quantum phenomena has enabled sensing technologies with detection limits below the classical limit. Sensors with applications in energy discovery, production, transportation, and consumption can be enhanced through quantum or hybrid quantum-classical sensors. Here, in this Review, we provide an overview of commercial and emerging quantum sensor platforms and their opportunity areas specific to advanced energy technologies. Key examples include: power grid-enhancing-technologies, where quantum magnetometers can detect powerline and transformer faults; electric vehicle-to-grid applications, where chip-scale atomic clocks can enable grid synchronization; and carbon capture and storage, where quantum gravimeters and single-photo LiDAR can detect microscopic leaks. Quantum sensor deployment requires further research into miniaturization and ruggedization for field deployment, cost-reduction, and workforce development. The maturation of clean energy technologies and quantum sensors provide opportunities for synergy, with the integration of quantum sensors into advanced energy technologies maximizing their security, reliability, and efficiency.

critical metals↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Building Business Network (B-Biz): Addressing Gaps in the High-Performance Building Technology Market, Especially for Underserved Customers

Increased market intelligence and business model innovation is needed to build contractor confidence in high-performance building technologies in order to increase the speed and scale of adoption to meet the U.S. Department of Energy's building stock decarbonization goals. Although there have been important innovations in energy efficiency, affordability, and decarbonization of building technologies, consumers are not purchasing these technologies at the necessary speed and scale partially due to a gap in institutional understanding around barriers contractors face in providing and servicing these technologies. Small businesses in this market must mitigate risk around high-performance building technologies, limiting their opportunities in the market and impacting the rate of adoption. The Building Business Network (B-Biz) aims to provide high-performance building technology solutions to underserved customers by collaborating with local small businesses that provide and service high-performance building technologies in communities with the lowest rates of adoption. This research explores the current market, the importance of business models, and the opportunity to utilize small businesses to address market gaps in underserved communities.

B-Biz↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Advanced Vehicle Technology Adoption Potential in Commercial Fleets Across Major Trucking Sectors

Adopting advanced vehicle technologies, such as battery-electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, can be an effective strategy for reducing fleet owners' operating costs. However, different trucking sectors, such as private and for-hire carriers and short- or long-haul operations, may face unique challenges in adopting those vehicle technologies due to their own operational needs and budget constraints. Current studies on fleet-wide vehicle technology projections frequently overlook such sectoral differences and fail to capture variation in adoption potential across sectors. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the disparities in the total cost of ownership (TCO) and payback period (PBP) among a large and heterogeneous sample of fleet owners. It aims to understand the sectoral differences in the long-term potential for adopting advanced vehicle technologies. Utilizing the 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS), which offers data on various commercial vehicle sectors, their operational patterns, and current vehicle assets, this research estimates the TCO and PBP for individual trucks over multiple future years. The results reveal variation in the cost-effectiveness of different vehicle technologies across trucking sectors, as well as the potential technology landscape in both the short and long term. The findings from this study can inform policymakers and practitioners on how to prioritize sectors with lower barriers for advanced vehicle technology adoption and support industries that face challenges in switching to advanced vehicles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and Validation of Smart Building Technology Modules for Academic and Professional Education (Final Technical Report)

Smart building technologies can improve building energy efficiency and resilience, reduce carbon emissions, and provide load flexibility to the grid. However, in both college curricula and building professionals’ continuing education, there is a lack of systematic instruction on smart building technologies. Slipstream, partnering with Texas A&M University (TAMU), the Society of Building Science Educators (SBSE), and the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), developed a semester-long smart building curriculum for college students and 16 training videos for building professionals and the general public. The education and training cover the drivers and benefits of smart building technologies, key building energy systems, the latest sensor technologies and IoT devices, and focus on topics related to smart building controls (i.e., energy management information systems, smart building control platforms, cybersecurity, grid-interactive-efficient buildings [GEBs], smart building control methods, and occupant-centric control). The smart building curriculum for college students was taught at TAMU in the Spring semester of 2024 as part of the validation process. Student feedback was collected and summarized in a validation report by TAMU. The curriculum material was also reviewed by SBSE faculty who are interested in teaching smart building technology-related courses. Suggestions on revisions and better adoption of the materials by other faculty across the architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) domains were compiled in a distinct validation report by SBSE. The SBSE validation report was used to create structured subsets of the curriculum material for adoption at different levels in different sub-disciplines. These subsets are categorized and offered on the SBSE website (https://www.sbse.org/courses/Smart-Building-Technologies). The 16 training videos for building professionals and the general public were previewed by 17 industry experts, and feedback and suggested changes were incorporated into the final version of these videos. The videos are organized into a smart building technology training course and published on the Whole Building Design Guide website (https://www.wbdg.org/ce/doe/bto/sbtt), which is hosted by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). Project team members created marketing materials to promote the awareness of these free, publicly available education and training resources. Outreach and marketing activities included creating short promotional videos, building project webpages, making project announcements on social media, conducting an email campaign, and directly reaching out to faculties and building professionals. This report describes the project approach, provides outlines of the training materials, along with links to resources, and identifies lessons learned in creating the content. We also suggest ways to scale the instruction of smart building concepts to empower the workforce to accelerate the adoption of smart building technologies in the real world.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges and Technology-Driven Opportunities for Safeguarding Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) represent a new class of reactors characterized by their compactness, portability, and low power output. These features enable MRs to supply electricity and process heat to remote areas like military bases; inaccessible locations; small grids, such as on islands; or disaster impacted areas. Compared to traditional light water reactors, MRs have a unique set of attributes that need to be considered for the implementation of safeguard strategies. Current safeguard methodologies are reactor technology specific and are employed on large, stationary reactors where there is easy access by safeguards inspectors and where safeguard equipment can be easily installed and retrofitted. While there are numerous benefits to MRs, their compact size, portability, scalability, and operational lifetime create challenges to the traditional safeguard approaches, thus needing novel safeguard strategies. Here, this paper addresses the unique challenges posed by MRs to the international nuclear safeguards regime, including limited human resources, and explores how technology advancements can help mitigate these challenges. Specifically, it examines novel technologies that could contribute to establishing a comprehensive safeguards framework for MRs. These safeguards-enabling technologies encompass safeguards by design, remote sensing and monitoring technologies, applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms, utilization of digital twins, and system of systems assessments. While each of these safeguards-enabling technologies offers partial solutions to the challenges posed by MRs for the international safeguards regime, none of them alone can entirely address these challenges. Consequently, a combination of the safeguards-enabling technologies outlined in this paper is recommended to establish a robust safeguards regime for MRs.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Carbon To Stone, Inc.

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Carbon To Stone (CTS), Inc. (Participant) will collaborate on a techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of CTS’s carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology under an awarded project from the Department of Energy’s Direct Air Capture Pre-Commercialization Technology Prize. CTS has developed a technological platform that captures carbon dioxide (CO2) from air and mineralizes it into durable carbonates using alkaline industrial residues such as steel slag and mine tailings. In addition, CTS’s technology uses electrochemistry to recover value-added energy critical metals (ECMs) from these residues. NETL has expertise in CDR TEA and LCA development. The collaboration between CTS and NETL aims to quantify the performance, cost and lifecycle impacts of CTS’s technology and produce LCA and TEA models that can accelerate development and deployment of this technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technology Integration 2023 Annual Progress Report

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Technology Integration projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. VTO's Technology Integration Program supports a broad technology portfolio that includes alternative fuels, energy efficient mobility systems and technologies, and other efficient advanced technologies that can reduce transportation energy costs for businesses and consumers. The program provides objective, unbiased data and real-world lessons learned to inform future research needs and support local decision making. It also includes projects to disseminate data, information, and insight, as well as online tools and technology assistance to cities and regions working to implement alternative fuels and energy efficient mobility technologies and systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Proposed Evaluation Framework for New and Emerging Low Embodied-Carbon Concrete Technologies

New opportunities for carbon reductions in buildings create a strong need for a common framework and method for those who design, build and influence construction to evaluate lifecycle carbon reductions from design decisions and technology choices. These opportunities include a wide range of low-embodied-carbon concrete materials being rapidly developed and introduced to the market. How to evaluate these newer materials and technologies has become critical for both public- and private-sector actors seeking to decarbonize building constructions by leveraging the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds. We propose an evaluation framework to assess the lifecycle carbon reductions from adoption of these technologies, including a subset of key “must have” (1) technical criteria (embodied carbon level, technology development stage); (2) market criteria (market size, scalability); and (3) financial criteria (cost of technology implementation compared to businessas-usual) from a range of options. We discuss how to use the framework and illustrate it using a “heatmap,” rating score and short case study of a promising technology. We also propose a plan to implement this framework that includes (1) standardized measurement and validation methods for verifying emission reductions from these technologies, and (2) avenues to implement real world demonstrations. We conclude with recommendations for next steps on framework refinement and commercialization strategy development.

Singh, Reshma↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating technology development to monitor and minimize effects from land‐based wind energy on birds and bats

While wind energy is a key sector of domestic energy production for the United States, operation of wind turbines directly and indirectly adversely affects certain species of birds and bats. The cumulative effect of wind turbine strikes can have both biological and regulatory consequences, and, in some cases, delay permitting and construction or affect ongoing operations. Technology can help quantify and minimize these effects, but the pace of development, acceptance, and adoption of technological solutions is slow. Although adopting cost‐effective technologies may reduce negative effects on wildlife and help achieve both energy production and conservation goals, consensus is lacking among developers, regulators, and the conservation community regarding how to define technology effectiveness and acceptance and how to develop a standardized process for doing so. Removing barriers to technology advancement requires deviating from the status quo. Changes include 1) creating incentives to mitigate impacts, 2) establishing options for research as mitigation, 3) rethinking how research is funded, 4) increasing stakeholder coordination, and 5) increasing the efficiency of research and development. We recommend the creation of a national framework to establish clear criteria and protocols for technology evaluation and adoption.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power Technologies for Rail Decarbonization Workshop: Summary Report

Argonne National Laboratory organized the Power Technologies for Rail Decarbonization Workshop for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office. The workshop offered an inclusive venue for different stakeholders to convey their perspective on challenges and opportunities in decarbonizing the rail sector. The first day of the workshop focused on (1) rail decarbonization efforts in the DOE and collaboration opportunities, (2) technology pathways to decarbonize rail, and (3) prime mover and low-carbon options for rail. The second day was devoted to (1) prime mover and zero-carbon options for rail, and (2) rail logistics, infrastructure, and safety. Each day raised challenges and solutions through presentations from national leaders and discussions among panel members and the audience. Through this engagement with different stakeholders, we will produce a cross-disciplinary recommendation for the role of government agencies to contribute meaningful research to address current technology gaps. The workshop included up 139 active participants and featured keynote speakers and panelists from Association of American Railroads, Progress Rail Locomotive, Wabtec, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad, Amtrak, Caterpillar, Cummins, Renewable Energy Group-Chevron, DOE’s Bioenergy Technologies Office, California Air Resources Board, Federal Railroad Administration and multiple DOE national laboratories. This summary report presents highlights from participant discussions covering the topics of technology pathways to decarbonize rail, prime mover and low-carbon options, prime mover and zero-carbon options, as well as rail logistics, infrastructure, and safety. The variety of input gathered from the stakeholder attendees is vital, as it helps inform DOE on rail decarbonization challenges and opportunities. Stakeholder feedback is balanced against DOE strategic directions and priorities with consideration of the roles of government and industry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Technology Proving Ground Program Plan

New methods of energy production and distribution are required to meet clean energy goals and demands across all U.S. energy sectors. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) initiative is enabling clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities. To date, IES demonstration programs have been limited by distributed infrastructure and a lack of large-scale facilities to accommodate industry-scale research of Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6-8 technologies. The IES initiative plans to eliminate these constraints by establishing a new research complex at INL known as the Energy Technology Proving Ground (Proving Ground) to be led by the Energy and Environment Science and Technology Directorate. The Energy and Environment Science and Technology (EES&T) directorate, one of five Idaho National Laboratory (INL) RD&D organizations, focuses on clean energy technologies that anchor the industry-enabling research of the Proving Ground. The Proving Ground will combine diverse clean energy systems into lean integrated test bed of independent multiscale capabilities available to the government and commercial industries to perform research; and will enable INL’s goal of becoming a Net-Zero entity by 2031. This program encompasses existing and new research space at both the in-town Research and Education Campus (REC) and the Arco desert site (the Site). The Proving Ground will support the maturation of IES technologies from TRL 1 through 8 by providing the infrastructure and capabilities needed to sustain a continuum of RD&D from basic science to industry-scale. To establish The Proving Ground and meet INL’s net-zero goals by 2031, nine research program areas have been identified within the IES initiative that require expanded and new capital infrastructure. This program plan provides guidance for establishing the Proving Ground at the Site for plug-and-play pilot testing and proofing of integrated energy system functionality including fission and renewable energy sources for industry driven application platforms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Technology Proving Ground FY-2026 Program Plan (Rev.1)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical Review of LPBF Metal Print Defects Detection: Roles of Selective Sensing Technology

The integrative potential of LPBF-printed parts for various innovative applications depends upon the robustness and infallibility of the part quality. Eliminating or sufficiently reducing factors contributing to the formation of defects is an integral step to achieving satisfiable part quality. Significant research efforts have been conducted to understand and quantify the triggers and origins of LPBF defects by investigating the material properties and process parameters for LPBF-printed geometries using various sensing technologies and techniques. Frequently, combinations of sensing techniques are applied to deepen the understanding of the investigated phenomena. The main objectives of this review are to cover the roles of selective sensing technologies by (1) providing a summary of LPBF metal print defects and their corresponding causes, (2) informing readers of the vast number and types of technologies and methodologies available to detect defects in LPBF-printed parts, and (3) equipping readers with publications geared towards defect detection using combinations of sensing technologies. Due to the large pool of developed sensing technology in the last few years for LPBF-printed parts that may be designed for targeting a specific defect in metal alloys, the article herein focuses on sensing technology that is common and applicable to most common defects and has been utilized in characterization for an extended period with proven efficiency and applicability to LPBF metal parts defect detection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗