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Alaska Hydrogen Opportunities Report

This inaugural report on Alaska's hydrogen energy opportunities introduces key themes for developing a hydrogen economy in Alaska, establishes a baseline understanding of Alaska's infrastructure and resources relevant to hydrogen, and contextualizes this baseline in terms of national and global initiatives focused on hydrogen. This report could be further developed into a hydrogen roadmap or a statewide hydrogen strategy in the future. The driving group behind this report, the Alaska Hydrogen Working Group, was formed in 2022 to address the increasing interest in hydrogen energy opportunities in Alaska. As of December 2023, there were nearly 200 members representing industry, government, academia, communities, tribal entities, and interested citizens from both inside and outside Alaska. Since its inception, the group has met monthly to discuss issues of interest and to share insights and questions. One task is to synthesize Alaska's hydrogen energy opportunities and potential into a report. This task not only reflects grassroots interest but also responds to objectives outlined in Alaska Statewide: Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy 2022-2027 (Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development, 2022), one of which is to develop and implement a hydrogen roadmap for Alaska. The goals of this report are to enhance knowledge and information sharing, spur innovation and investment that could help transform Alaska's energy systems, and identify economic and workforce development opportunities across the state. Following the elements of the hydrogen economy outlined in the U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, published in June 2023, this report explores the production, storage/delivery, and end-use options in evolving markets for Alaska, both within and outside the state. It also outlines key opportunities to identify and develop infrastructure investments, policy and regulatory frameworks, future research and demonstration priorities, economic and investment considerations, and workforce programs. These goals and opportunities are intended to support a statewide hydrogen energy economy that is equitable, diverse, environmentally just, and supportive of Indigenous rights and value systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Value of Information and Data Management Platform Promoting Modern Data Analysis Utilization. STTR Phase I, Final Technical Report

The immense growth in weather and river sensor data availability along with increases in computational power and algorithmic sophistication have enabled the widespread application of physical, machine learning, and artificial intelligence algorithms to river forecasting. The forecasts produced by widely varying model approaches are inherently limited in different ways, such as by the number and quality of training observations, producing biased predictions that achieve optimal skill only over specific ranges of weather and river conditions. Thus, despite the growing availability and new sources of forecasts, hydropower owners cannot fully leverage the information because they lack an effective mechanism to determine the “best” forecast for given conditions or objectives. Tools are needed to consolidate forecast information, demonstrate skill, and extract optimal forecast guidance from the range of possibilities. Such tools will increase uptake and beneficial use of the growing wealth of forecast information, and lead to improved operating decisions, optimal power generation, and enhanced system value. This research proposes to improve the value of forecasts by developing a broadly accessible verification framework and applying machine learning techniques to identify the ‘best’ forecast from an ensemble of sources given the current weather, river, and operating conditions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the Interactive Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Demand Response on Power System Costs and Emissions

Utilities are increasingly interested in integrating energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) measures and technologies (as well as other distributed energy resources) as a strategic approach to improve their cost-effectiveness and performance. However, the specific EE and DR features that may be best integrated, the interplay between changing EE and DR resource potential, and resulting utility system impacts are not well understood. We quantify the impacts of EE and DR in isolation and in combination on bulk power system costs and emissions based on changes in generation expansion, transmission expansion, and dispatch patterns. The study methodology mimics utility resource planning and uses more novel techniques to select least-cost generation and transmission capacity from supply-and demand-side resources, as compared to more commonly used utility approaches that only consider supply-side resources. The results identify key EE and DR characteristics affecting each other’s power system value and the most valuable technologies and strategies that can be jointly deployed. We discuss implications for EE and DR cost-effectiveness frameworks, program design, and integrated resource planning.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Exploring Changes in Quasar Spectral Energy Distributions across C IV Parameter Space

We examine the UV/X-ray properties of 1378 quasars in order to link empirical correlations to theoretical models of the physical mechanisms dominating quasars as a function of mass and accretion rate. The clarity of these correlations is improved when (1) using C IV broad emission line equivalent width (EQW) and blueshift (relative to systemic) values calculated from high signal-to-noise ratio reconstructions of optical/UV spectra and (2) removing quasars expected to be absorbed based on their UV/X-ray spectral slopes. In addition to using the traditional C IV parameter space measures of C IV EQW and blueshift, we define a "C IV ∥ distance" along a best-fit polynomial curve that incorporates information from both C IV parameters. We find that the C IV ∥ distance is linearly correlated with both the optical-to-X-ray slope, α ox , and broad-line He II EQW, which are known spectral energy distribution indicators, but does not require X-ray or high spectral resolution UV observations to compute. The C IV ∥ distance may be a better indicator of the mass-weighted accretion rate, parameterized by L/L Edd , than the C iv EQW or blueshift alone, as those relationships are known to break down at the extrema. Conversely, there is only a weak correlation with the X-ray energy index (Γ), an alternate L/L Edd indicator. We find no X-ray or optical trends in the direction perpendicular to the C IV distance that could be used to reveal differences in accretion disk, wind, or corona structure that could be widening the C IV EQW–blueshift distribution. A different parameter (such as metallicity) not traced by these data must come into play.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of Thermal Plant Operational Flexibility on VRE Curtailment: The Curtailment Paradox

This presentation provides an overview of a previously published paper in Joule "The curtailment paradox in the transition to high solar power systems." The adoption of PV and battery storage has accelerated globally in recent years, driven by rapid cost declines. A corresponding increase in curtailment is anticipated as PV growth continues. This study explores the effect of system flexibility options on curtailment across increasing PV penetration levels. Results highlight a paradox where thermal generator flexibility matters most only at mid-PV penetration levels (25%-40%), and a misalignment exists where PV provides system value by providing operating reserves without sufficient opportunity for monetary compensation.

capacity expansion modeling↗

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

In some embodiments, a memory controller in a processor includes a base value cache, a compressor, and a metadata cache. The compressor is coupled to the base value cache and the metadata cache. The compressor compresses a data block using at least a base value and delta values. The compressor determines whether the size of the data block exceeds a data block threshold value. Based on the determination of whether the size of the compressed data block generated by the compressor exceeds the data block threshold value, the memory controller transfers only a set of the compressed delta values to memory for storage. A decompressor located in the lower level cache of the processor decompresses the compressed data block using the base value stored in the base value cache, metadata stored in the metadata cache and the delta values stored in memory.

Seyedzadehdelcheh, SeyedMohammad↗

Data compression system using base values and methods thereof

In some embodiments, a memory controller in a processor includes a base value cache, a compressor, and a metadata cache. The compressor is coupled to the base value cache and the metadata cache. The compressor compresses a data block using at least a base value and delta values. The compressor determines whether the size of the data block exceeds a data block threshold value. Based on the determination of whether the size of the compressed data block generated by the compressor exceeds the data block threshold value, the memory controller transfers only a set of the compressed delta values to memory for storage. A decompressor located in the lower level cache of the processor decompresses the compressed data block using the base value stored in the base value cache, metadata stored in the metadata cache and the delta values stored in memory.

Seyedzadehdelcheh, Seyed Mohammad↗

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hydrogen Systems for PERformance-Based Value Stacking

The proposed technology (HYPER-V: HYdrogen Systems for PERformance based Value-stacking) represents a co-optimized control framework to dispatch hydrogen systems for serving complex commercial energy demands. HYPER-V aims at integrating hydrogen systems for a variety of use-cases in all energy markets including (but not limited to) grid services, transportation, and fuels. This presentation is the end-of-the-project merit review describing the outcomes.

grid services↗

Tethered Balloon System merged (TBSmerged) Value-Added Product Report

TBSmerged integrates data from instruments flown on ARM’s Tethered Balloon System missions that collect in situ measurements of temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and aerosol properties with estimates of cloud base and boundary layer height from a surface-based ceilometer to improve the ease of use of TBS datasets. TBSmergedincloud includes supercooled liquid water content (tbsslwc) measurements collected within the cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗