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The aim is to create a prototype open-source long-term load forecasting tool suitable for quickly assembling country-level load forecasts for power sector planning models accounting for major drivers like population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), technology adoption, and a changing climate.
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This fact sheet provides a high level, step-by-step overview to conduct a power system planning study.
Nuclear-renewable-storage integrated energy systems (IES) are multi-carrier energy systems that include not only electricity but also other forms of demands. Because individual IES components must observe their thermo-physical limits, including ramp rates, start-up, and shut-down time, we formulate operations of the IES as an optimization model by minimizing the total operations costs subject to physical limits of all constituent components. In addition, we develop a data-driven approach to improve the computational performance of the economic dispatch model by using reinforcement learning, where an agent is rewarded by meeting demands and penalized otherwise when shifting to the next state.
Systems and methods are described herein for real-time data processing and for emergency planning. Scenario test data may be collected in real-time based on monitoring local or regional data to ascertain any anomaly phenomenon that may indicate an imminent danger or of concern. A computer-implemented method may include filtering a plurality of different test scenarios to identify a sub-set of test scenarios from the plurality of different test scenarios that may have similar behavior characteristics. A sub-set of test scenarios is provided to a trained neural network to identify one or more sub-set of test scenarios. The one or more identified sub-set of test scenarios may correspond to one or more anomaly test scenarios from the sub-set of test scenarios that is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome. The neural network may be one of: a conventional neural network and a modular neural network.
Systems and methods are described herein for real-time data processing and for emergency planning. Scenario test data may be collected in real-time based on monitoring local or regional data to ascertain any anomaly phenomenon that may indicate an imminent danger or of concern. A computer-implemented method may include filtering a plurality of different test scenarios to identify a sub-set of test scenarios from the plurality of different test scenarios that may have similar behavior characteristics. A sub-set of test scenarios is provided to a trained neural network to identify one or more sub-set of test scenarios. The one or more identified sub-set of test scenarios may correspond to one or more anomaly test scenarios from the sub-set of test scenarios that is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome. The neural network may be one of: a conventional neural network and a modular neural network.
The Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform is one of the most powerful research environments anywhere for addressing the speed and scale of change on power systems. This research plan details ARIES capabilities, current and upcoming, and how they relate to objectives for advanced energy systems.
Ensuring the reliability of the NIF, including its support systems, laser systems, target diagnostic systems, and utilities, is essential to the availability of the NIF in its support of NNSA missions. NIF is a key capability in the DOE Stockpile Stewardship Program and supports high energy physics experiments for nuclear weapons, energy, and astrophysics applications. High system reliability provides opportunities for shots and scientific discoveries with opportunities to enhance and upgrade capabilities. This Maintenance Plan (MP) identifies the policies and procedures used to perform and support asset management of the NIF Facility and Infrastructure Systems (FInS), NIF Lasers & Alignment (LASE), NIF Target Experimental Operations (TOPS), NIF Target Area Science and Engineering (TASE), and NIF&PS Control Systems (NCS). The FInS systems include the facility, HVAC, contamination control, beampath, and Line Replaceable Units (LRUs) as well as utilities which create the beampath environments, such as vacuum, argon, or clean dry air. The LASE systems are Programmatic systems which include laser diagnostics, alignment, power conditioning, pulsed power, and input laser systems. The TOPS and TASE systems are also Programmatic systems which include target and diagnostic delivery systems and positioners, many different insertable and fixed target diagnostics, and cryogenic and target gas fill systems. Finally, the NCS systems include both software and hardware for industrial and shot operation control systems. Policies governing administrative and operational practices related to maintenance of FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS systems are described in this plan. In addition, the plan provides processes and procedures for managing, tracking, and documenting the work. This document, the NIF Operations Management Plan, NIF-5020544 (Ref. 1), and NIF Shot Operations Plan, NIF-5018506 (Ref. 2), together satisfy the requirements of the Conduct of Operations. Duties, responsibilities, and reporting requirements of the various positions associated with FInS, LASE, and TOPS maintenance are detailed in this plan. The FInS systems include both Real Property systems with asset management requirements specified in DOE Order 430.1C (Ref. 3) and Programmatic systems. In addition, for FInS, there is a list of the System Level Maintenance Plans (SLMPs) in NIF-1007419198 (Ref. 4) which provide the system descriptions and maintenance plan and schedule. In addition, the list includes the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) and Experience Centered Maintenance (ECM) evaluations that have been performed for applicable FInS systems as well as reliability criticality per Section 3.5. The -AM version of the NIF Maintenance Plan focuses on the reliability program for FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS within the context of the overall NIF Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) program and incorporates changes since the -AL version from August 2011 and has been updated to be fully consistent with the updates to Ref. 1. It also includes asset management considerations, updates to the Work Order (WO) process within the NIF Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) which is EAM infor® System Maintenance and Reliability Tracking (SMaRT) (Ref. 5), and updates to metrics and key performance indicators (KPIs).
As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.
The number of deployed systems and different HW/SW form factors makes it difficult to maintain a complete understanding of their health which leads to a reduced level of certainty when assessing risk and trying to prioritize system upgrade efforts. AOT-IC must constantly plan and execute system upgrade and replacement projects to ensure the longevity of the control system. There are many more projects needed than the group can realistically accomplish given schedule and resource constraints. The group must prioritize their upgrade projects to choose only the highest priority projects to execute each year. Currently plans upgrade and replacement projects based on alignment with mission needs, group vision, resource availability, and qualitative risk assessments based on SME estimates. The group maintains a risk register. This is useful as a tool for shaping strategic planning but currently lacks the quantitative data and process needed to generate accurate risk assessments.
We report studies on the electric bus system planning problem have typically focused exclusively on either the deployment of charging infrastructure or the scheduling of charging events; few have examined the impact of charging facility deployment on charging activities. Considering the interdependence of system design and operational strategies, this study proposes a two-phase optimization framework for charging infrastructure planning and charging scheduling for battery electric bus systems. An integrated optimization model is first developed to simultaneously optimize charger deployment, on-board battery capacity, and charging schedules. A charging scheduling model is further proposed and a rolling horizon approach is utilized in the second phase to optimize the real-time charging scheduling of electric buses. Compared to existing electric bus system planning methods, the proposed integrated model can reduce the total system cost by 19.5%. In addition, compared to uncontrolled charging, the proposed rolling horizon-based charging strategy can reduce the total charging cost by 68.3%.
The Accelerator Operations and Technology Instrumentation and Controls Group (AOT IC) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has established a comprehensive risk-based system upgrade planning strategy which has been utilized as a tool to prioritize system upgrade projects for the past several years. A challenge with the current system is that the group often lacks the data to quantify the probability and impact of system failures, so the group often relies instead on qualitative risk assessments as well as evaluations of a potential upgrade project’s alignment with group strategy and vision to prioritize projects. A proposed framework to enable quantitative risk probability and impact assessments has been developed and tested on three pilot systems chosen to broadly represent the types and conditions of equipment used by the group. The proposed framework incorporates availability data gathered from the LANSCE control room logbooks and the LANSCE work control system, as well as a system health evaluation which is conducted from a variety of resources to assess the probability of equipment failure. The impact of system failure is viewed from the perspective of impact on mission and schedule, where spares status, system documentation status, and the functional distribution of deployed systems are used to quantify these impacts.
This presentation provides an in-depth exploration of power system planning, cross-border electricity trading, and battery energy storage systems (BESS), offering actionable insights for system operators, regulators, and policymakers. The first section delves into power system planning and analysis, focusing on capacity expansion models and resource adequacy studies, including their role in optimizing system efficiency, managing emissions, and addressing system reliability risks. Key considerations, such as integration of transmission into generation planning and the forecasting versus optimization of customer distributed energy resources (DER) technologies, are explored. The session highlights critical trade-offs in spatial granularity and model runtimes, as well as the feasibility of aligning distribution investments with capacity expansion efforts. The second section examines cross-border electricity trading, with an emphasis on resource adequacy concepts such as reliability targets, loss of load expectation (LOLE), and planning reserve margins (PRM). Case studies on reserve market design and coordination across US regions provide insights into improving reserve deliverability and managing interregional power balance and congestion. This section also addresses market-to-market congestion management, including advanced strategies for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) optimization and ancillary service delivery. Finally, the presentation covers the rapid evolution of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), highlighting their operational growth, regulatory frameworks, and use cases in grid flexibility, energy storage, and reliability. The discussion focuses on the benefits of BESS for system stability, resilience, and integration of renewable energy, offering insights into its role as a vital component in the transition toward a more sustainable and flexible grid. Key performance parameters, such as throughput, round-trip efficiency, and state of charge, are also examined.
The Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS), a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) under contract DE-NA0003525. In 2008, a Notice of Intent (NOI) was filed for the Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) facility to be covered under the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Order No. 2006-0003-DWQ Statewide General Waste Discharge Requirements (WDR) for Sanitary Sewer Systems (General Permit) and was issued the WDID No. 2SSO11605. The General Permit requires a proactive approach to reduce the number and frequency of sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) within the State. Provision D.11 of the General Permit requires the development and implementation of a written Sewer System Management Plan (SSMP). This SSMP is prepared according to the mandatory elements required by Provision D.13 and D.14, as well as the schedule for a population less than 2,500 as outlined in Provision D.15.
The goal of the study is to help inform and assist power system planning entities, electricity system operators, government energy agencies, legislators and regulators to better understand the planning, engineering, operational, and economic implications of integrating large amounts of wind, solar and hydro energy into the Canadian, US and Mexican electrical systems.
The INL Resilience Framework is built to be customized to a particular system’s characteristics, resilience goals, and hazards that it is likely to face. The challenge with a framework that is built to be customized is that it requires more effort from the user to understand the framework and apply it correctly to a particular system. The goal of the web application described here is to automate the framework application as much as possible. Inputs from users are standardized into a common format, but the modeling platform used is a modular framework built to adapt to any system. Baseline effects from common hazards are programmed with stochastic variables to allow for quick exploration of hazard impacts, but can be customized down to component-level impact if a user desires a high level of detail and specificity.
Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.
NASEO and Berkeley Lab released a new publication on State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals. State and Territory Energy Offices develop plans, programs, policies, and projects that have a substantial impact on electric distribution systems. They also can participate in distribution system planning (DSP) processes to help ensure that utilities – consumer- and investor-owned – meet the state’s future energy needs. This paper recognizes the wide spectrum of roles that State Energy Offices can play in DSP processes, including planning for distributed energy resources and grid modernization. It highlights various examples of non-regulatory activities by State Energy Offices including planning, conducting studies, convening stakeholder processes, and implementing programs that inform and contribute to distribution system planning. It also provides examples of State Energy Offices’ engagement in proceedings before their respective public utility commissions. As State Energy Offices face myriad challenges associated with meeting state policy goals, preparing for anticipated rates of distributed energy resource deployment, addressing concerns regarding grid reliability and resilience, and recommending and making long-term investment decisions, the examples provided through this guide can serve as a resource in navigating those challenges.