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Time-cumulated visible and infrared radiance histograms used as descriptors of surface and cloud variations

The spatial and temporal stability of the distributions of satellite-measured visible and infrared radiances, caused by variations in clouds and surfaces, are investigated using bidimensional and monodimensional histograms and time-composite images. Similar analysis of the histograms of the original and time-composite images provides separation of the contributions of the space and time variations to the total variations. The variability of both the surfaces and clouds is found to be larger at scales much larger than the minimum resolved by satellite imagery. This study shows that the shapes of these histograms are distinctive characteristics of the different climate regimes and that particular attributes of these histograms can be related to several general, though not universal, properties of clouds and surface variations at regional and synoptic scales. There are also significant exceptions to these relationships in particular climate regimes. The characteristics of these radiance histograms provide a stable well defined descriptor of the cloud and surface properties.

Seze, Genevieve↗

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 1

Correlations between standard meteorological data and wind power generation potential were developed. Combined with appropriate wind forecasts, these correlations can be useful to load dispatchers to supplement conventional energy sources. Hourly wind data were analyzed for four sites, each exhibiting a unique physiography. These sites are Amarillo, Texas; Ludington, Michigan; Montauk Point, New York; and San Gorgonio, California. Synoptic weather maps and tables are presented to illustrate various wind 'regimes' at these sites.

Trettel, D. W.↗

Thermodynamic and kinematic drivers of atmospheric boundary layer stability in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low-wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low-radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments; a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low-wind, high-radiation environments; weak stability occurs in high-wind, moderate-radiation environments; and a near-neutral ABL forms in high-wind, high-radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Organization Metric for Synoptic Scale Tropical Convective Aggregation

Organization metrics were originally developed to measure how densely convective clouds are arranged at mesoscales. In this work, we apply organization metrics to describe tropical synoptic scale convective activity. Such activity is identified by cloud-precipitation (hybrid) regimes defined at 1-degree and 1-hourly resolution. Existing metrics were found to perform inadequately for such convective regime aggregates because the large domain size and co-existence of sparse aggregate occurrences with noisy isolated convection often violate assumptions inherent in these metrics. In order to capture these characteristics, in this study the existing “convective organization potential” (COP) metric was modified so as to focus on local organization and provide increased weight to aggregate size. The resulting “area-based COP” (ABCOP) follows the principle that the more numerous the objects, the higher the chance of organization. It is thus optimized to capture large-scale convective events occurring during phenomena such as ENSO and MJO, while also performs as well as existing metrics for small domain sizes.

Synoptic scales↗

The Solar-Stellar Connection (NAG5-6124: SOHO Guest Investigator Program)

The following is a final report from the SOHO Guest Investigator program to use the SUMER far-UV spectrometer to obtain imaging spectroscopy in support of the goals of the so-called "solar-stellar connection." In particular, a major emphasis was utilization of the long-slit time-resolved maps of the solar surface in bright far-UV emission lines to deduce how particular aspects of the temporally and spatially averaged line profiles trace back to individual structural features of the magnetically disturbed outer atmosphere; to help interpret the unresolved line profiles from high quality stellar observations (say, with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph). The researchers served two tours of duty in the SOHO Operations Center as SUMER planners, during which time we conducted an extensive series of observing programs. These can be divided into three general categories: surface mapping, translimb spectroscopy, and active region diagnostics. We have analyzed some of the large volumes of data to the point where we have presented them in poster papers, and in invited papers at national and international meetings. Listed below are the titles of the preliminary publications we have written, including brief abstracts to indicate the main results. (1) Chromospheric structure and Dynamics-- Observations -- The chromosphere is a highly structured dynamic 'layer' of the solar outer atmosphere. Here, not only are the effects of mechanical heating first evident (moving upward in altitude from the deep photosphere), but also the amount of nonradiative energy deposited is far greater than in the albeit much hotter overlying transition region and corona. Further, the chromosphere is by far the thickest zone of the solar atmosphere with respect to the pressure scale height. A major goal of stellar astrophysics is to understand how the chromosphere is heated and why it adopts its peculiar structure. A cursory examination of solar filtergrams and high-resolution movies demonstrates that much of the chromospheric "action" must be occurring on fine spatial scales and short times; particularly in the cell interior transient brightenings, but also in the longer-lived network fragments. That regime of investigation is far removed from what one usually associates with "synoptic" measurements. Nevertheless, synoptic observations of chromospheric indices, filtergrams, and globally-averaged profile parameters not only can provide important insight concerning the crucial role of the cycle-variable part of the solar magnetic field; but they also can forge a key link with analogous measurements of the stars, where often the phenomena can be significantly exaggerated from the solar case, but high spatial resolution reconnaissance is not even a remote possibility. In addition to discussing the synoptic aspects of chromospheric structure and dynamics, I summarized new insights into the general problem of the solar chromosphere that have been obtained recently with the SUMER far-ultraviolet spectrometer on SOHO. (2) CO and the Temperature Structure of the Solar Atmosphere -- The surface layers of the Sun provide a crucial boundary condition for many of the processes that occur in the deep interior. The stratification of the outer solar atmosphere once was thought to be well understood. However, studies of thermally sensitive molecular absorptions in the infrared revealed puzzling anomalies. Strong lines of the CO fundamental vibration-rotation bands near 5 microns showed very cool temperatures at the extreme limb, and remarkable off-limb emissions extending well into the supposedly hot chromosphere. The conflicting pictures of the photosphere/chromosphere interface, from the widely separated wavelength regimes, has raised suspicions that those "layers" of the atmosphere are much more inhomogeneous than previously suspected. One proposal is that the low chromosphere is dominated by cool gas, the "COmosphere," which is threaded by a network of persistent small-scale hot magnetic filaments and occasionally disrupted by localized acoustic disturbances. The COmosphere is capped by the merged fields of the network elements in the chromospheric "canopy." (3) Translimb Spectroscopy with SOHO/SUMER -- We have used SUMER to obtain deep exposures of the 1300-1400 A spectrum, at the extreme limb and off-limb. Previous "translimb" studies in the thermal infrared had revealed remarkable extensions of cold material (T is approximately equal to 3000 K)-traced by carbon monoxide emission lines-into the heart of the hot chromosphere. A main objective of our program was to search for corresponding far-UV signatures of the "thermally-bifurcated" low chromosphere; for example, radiatively fluoresced emissions of the CO A-X 4th-positive system (collisional excitation would be negligible in cold gas). We conducted two separate observing programs with SUMER. Both made use of the 1 inch-diameter circular aperture, translated across the limb in the minimum motor step increments of 0."375, along the central meridian in the Northern polar coronal hole. The first program executed for nine hours beginning 19UT 25 Oct 1996. The full wavelength range was 1340-1400 A. It was recorded in two overlapping segments, placing key regions of the spectrum alternately on the KBr and bare parts of the detector, to help isolate 2nd-order features. Each segment was integrated for 500 s, and 32 pairs were obtained to span a 12" swath centered on the optical limb. The second program was conducted 00-09UT 01 Dec 1996. It consisted of a single wavelength setting (1300-1340 A) with exposure time 500 s, but twice the spatial coverage of the earlier series: 64 steps, for a total displacement of 24". The strong chromospheric resonance lines of atomic oxygen (1302-1305 A) and ionized carbon (1334-1335 A) were observed on the bare part of the MCP camera.

Ayres, Thomas R.↗

Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows

In this paper, linear small-error theory is applied to the study of weather predictability. A simple baroclinic shear model and a barotropic channel model with a localized jet are used as examples. It is shown that increase in error on synoptic forecast time scales is controlled by rapidly growing perturbations that are not of normal mode form. Unpredictable regimes are not necessarily associated with larger exponential growth rates than are relatively more predictable regimes. Model problems illustrating baroclinic and barotropic dynamics suggest that asymptotic measures of divergence in phase space, while applicable in the limit of infinite time, may not be appropriate over time intervals addressed by present synoptic forecast.

Farrell, Brian F.↗

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s -1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s -1 . Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Finally, measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Chromospheric Structure and Dynamics--Observations

The chromosphere is a highly structured dynamic 'layer' of the solar outer atmosphere. Here, not only are the effects of mechanical heating first evident (moving upward in altitude from the deep photosphere), but also the amount of nonradiative energy deposited is far greater than in the albeit much hotter overlying transition region and corona. Further, the chromosphere is by far the thickest zone of the solar atmosphere with respect to the pressure scale height. A major goal of stellar astrophysics is to understand how the chromosphere is heated and why it adopts its peculiar structure. A cursory examination of solar filtergrams and high-resolution movies demonstrates that much of the chromospheric "action" must be occurring on fine spatial scales and short times; particularly in the cell interior transient brightenings, but also in the longer-lived network fragments. That regime of investigation is far removed from what one usually associates with "synoptic" measurements. Nevertheless, synoptic observations of chromospheric indices, filtergrams, and globally-averaged profile parameters (e.g., for Ca II) not only can provide important insight concerning the crucial role of the cycle-variable part of the solar magnetic field; but they also can forge a key link with analogous measurements of the stars, where often the phenomena can be significantly exaggerated from the solar case, but high spatial resolution reconnaissance is not even a remote possibility. In addition to discussing the synoptic aspects of chromospheric structure and dynamics, I will summarize new insights into the general problem of the solar chromosphere that have been obtained recently with the SUMER far-ultraviolet spectrometer on SOHO.

Ayres, Thomas R.↗

TRMM Observations of Convective Regimes in the Amazon

This study utilizes TRMM satellite precipitation radar, lightning imaging sensor, and passive microwave imager data together with ground-based lightning data to investigate the vertical structure, lightning, and rainfall characteristics of Amazonian and central South American convection for three separate wet-seasons. These characteristics are partitioned as a function of 850 mb zonal wind direction, motivated by observations collected during the six-week TRMM-LBA field campaign. The TRMM-LBA field campaign observations suggest that systematic variations in Amazonian convective vertical structure, lightning, and rainfall are all linked to bimodal variations in the low-level zonal wind (e.g., easterly and westerly regimes). The more spatially and temporally comprehensive TRMM dataset used in this study extends the TRMM-LBA observations by examining regime variability in Amazonian and South American convective structure over a continental scale domain. On a continental-scale, patterns of east and west regime 850 mb winds combined with LIS lightning flash densities suggest the presence of synoptic-scale controls (e.g., intrusion of extratropical frontal systems and interaction with the SACZ) on regional-scale variability in convective vertical structure. TRMM PR, TMI and ground-based lightning data suggest that regional variability in wet-season convective structure is most evident over the southern Amazon, Mato Grosso, Altiplano, southern Brazil, and eastern coastal regions of central and southern South America. Convective vertical structure, rain fall rates, and lightning activity are all more pronounced during easterly (westerly) regimes over the southern Amazon and Mato Grosso (Altiplano, and southern Brazil). Importantly, when considered with case-study results from TRMM-LBA, the systematic differences in convective structure that occur as a function of regime suggest that associated regime-differences may exist in the vertical distribution of diabatic heating. Hence the discrimination of convective vertical structure "regimes" over parts of the Amazon and vicinity based on a resolved variable such as the 850 mb zonal wind direction, while far from being perfect, may have important applications to the problems of cumulus parameterization, rainfall estimation and retrievals of latent heating over the Amazon.

Petersen, W. A.↗

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE cirrus case study: Meteorology and clouds

Detailed descriptions of the rawinsonde resolved meteorological conditions (3 hourly soundings) associated with a succession of five distinct mesoscale cirrus cloud regimes, that were intensively observed over a 36 hour period, are given. The synoptic scale systems in which these features were embedded are described and a brief overview of the experiment is given. Regional analyses of the static stability structure and vertical motion are presented and interpreted with respect to the characteristics of the corresponding cloud fields as deduced from satellite and lidar observations. The cloud fields exhibited a high degree of persistent mesoscale organization on scales of 20 to 500 km reflecting corresponding scales of dynamic and thermodynamic structure/variability as on the synoptic scale. Cloud generation was usually confined to layers less than 1 km deep (typically 0.5 km in depth) and cellular organization was evident in most cases irrespective of the thermal stratification. Multilayered development was prevalent (2 to 3 layers) and was associated with vertical structure of the temperature and moisture fields resulting primarily from vertical gradients in horizontal advection.

Starr, David↗

Long‐Term Large‐Scale Atmospheric Forcing Data From Three‐Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis for the ARM SGP Site

Here, this study presents a long‐term three‐dimensional large‐scale forcing data set (VARANAL3D) derived from the three‐dimensional constrained variational analysis (3DCVA) method at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 2004 to 2018. Building on the same input data sets as the conventional continuous forcing data set (VARANAL), VARANAL3D maintains overall consistency in domain‐averaged fields while introducing spatial variability, offering critical insights into the influence of mesoscale synoptic systems on cloud‐related processes. Evaluations are conducted across four cloud and precipitation regimes: Clear‐sky, Shallow‐clouds, Afternoon‐precipitation, and Nocturnal‐precipitation, presenting high consistency of the domain‐mean forcing data sets while emphasizing the role of subdomain forcing variability particularly in precipitating regimes. Single column model (SCM) simulations demonstrate that subdomain VARANAL3D forcing improves cloud and precipitation representation, with the ensemble outperforming domain‐mean forcing in three cloudy and precipitating regimes. Overall, these results highlight VARANAL3D's value for investigating the impacts of spatial variability of large‐scale forcing on atmospheric processes. The VARANAL3D data set provides new opportunities for evaluating model physics, advancing the development of scale‐aware parameterizations and deepening our understanding of cloud and precipitation dynamics.

Environmental sciences↗

The photochemistry of synoptic-scale ozone synthesis Implications for the global tropospheric ozone budget

The oxidation of nonmethane hydrocarbons represents a source of tropospheric ozone that is primarily confined to the boundary layers of several highly industrialized regions. (Each region has an area greater than one million km/sq cm). Using a photochemical model, the global tropospheric ozone budget is reexamined by including the in-situ production from these localized regimes. The results from these calculations suggest that the net source due to this photochemistry, which takes place on the synoptic scale, is approximately as large as the amount calculated for global scale photochemical processes which consider only the oxidation of methane and carbon monoxide. Such a finding may have a considerable impact on our understanding of the tropospheric ozone budget. The model results for ozone show reasonable agreement with the climatological summer distribution of ozone and the oxides of nitrogen at the surface and with the vertical distribution of ozone and nonmethane hydrocarbons obtained during a 1980 field program.

Fishman, J.↗

Environmental Characteristics of Convective Systems During TRMM-LBA

In this paper, data collected from 51 days of continual upper atmospheric soundings and TOGA radar at ABRACOS Hill during the TRMM-LBA experiment are used to describe the mean thermodynamic and kinematic airmass properties of wet season convection over Rondonia, Brazil. Distinct multi-day easterly and westerly lower tropospheric wind regimes occurred during the campaign with contrasting airmass characteristics. Westerly wind periods featured modest CAPE (1000 J/kg), moist conditions (>90% RH) extending through 700 mb and shallow (900 mb) speed shear on the order of 10(exp -4)/s. This combination of characteristics promoted convective systems that featured a relatively large fraction of stratiform rainfall and weak convection nearly devoid of lightning. The environment is very similar to the general airmass conditions experienced during the Darwin, Australia monsoon convective regime. In contrast, easterly regime convective systems were more strongly electrified and featured larger convective rain rates and reduced stratiform rainfall fraction. These systems formed in an environment with significantly larger CAPE (1500 J/kg), drier lower and middle level humidities (< 80% RH) and a wind shear layer that was both stronger (10(exp -3)/s) and deeper (700 mb). The larger CAPE resulted from strong insolation under relatively cloud-free skies (owing to reduced column humidity) and was also weakly capped in the lowest 1-2 km, thus contributing to a more explosive growth of convection. The time series of low- and mid-level averaged humidity exhibited marked variability between westerly and easterly regimes and was characterized by low frequency (i.e., multi-day to weekly) oscillations. The synoptic scale origins of these moisture fluctuations are examined, which include the effects of variable low-level airmass trajectories and upper-level, westward migrating cyclonic vortices. The results reported herein provide an environmental context for ongoing dual Doppler analyses and numerical modeling case studies of individual TRMM-LBA convective systems.

Halverson, Jeffrey B.↗

Kinematic and Moisture Environments of Convective Systems During TRMM-LBA: Preliminary Sounding Analyses

Preliminary radiosonde data are analyzed from a four station observation network that operated during TRMM-LBA. These data, which are undergoing quality control, are used to construct mean vertical profiles and time-height sections of u- and v- wind components, and also filtered time series analyses of layer mean relative humidity. Trends are identified in the humidity data which appear similar at all sites, and correlate well with multi-week changes in wind regime identified by Rickenbach et al. Higher-frequency modes of variation (3-5 day) also occur in the humidity and upper tropospheric winds and are spatially coherent among the four locations. The causes of these variations are explored, including interactions among upper tropospheric synoptic features. Finally, an attempt is made to relate the general morphology of convective systems to the vertical shear structure and thermodynamic changes that accompany contrasting wind regimes.

Halverson, J. B.↗

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 2

Wind data from four sites were stratified and found to naturally fit into a few unique groups. These were compared with synoptic weather patterns using the Booz-Allen classification system. Strong relationships became evident between a particular synoptic type and wind events for each site. Statistics indicate certain patterns which result in strong winds and some that result in weak winds. For each site there is a preferred wind direction associated with the strongest speed. Important relationships were also found comparing 850-mb and surface wind. Additionally, comparisons between pressure gradient and wind speed for a given gradient direction show some significant relationships. It can be stated that the overall results show what by using existing data for any site, the winds can be characterized and correlated with synoptic weather patterns. As a result, reliable wind forecasts can be made for utility companies for the purpose of power generation.

Notis, C.↗

The Two Arctic Wintertime Boundary Layer States: Disentangling the Role of Cloud and Wind Regimes in Reanalysis and Observations During MOSAiC

The wintertime central Arctic atmosphere comprises a radiatively clear and a radiatively opaque state, which are linked to synoptic forcing and mixed-phase clouds. Weather and climate models often lack process representations surrounding these states, but prior work mostly treated the problem as an aggregate of synoptic conditions, resulting in partially overlapping biases. Here, we disaggregate the Arctic states and confront ERA5 reanalysis with observations from the MOSAiC campaign over the central Arctic sea ice during winter 2019/2020. Low-level winds and liquid water path (LWP) are combined to derive different synoptic classes. Results show that the clear state is primarily formed by weak/moderate winds and the absence of liquid-bearing clouds, while strong winds and enhanced LWP primarily form the radiatively opaque state. ERA5 struggles to reproduce these basic statistics, shows too weak sensitivity of thermal radiation to synoptic forcing, and overestimates thermal radiation for similar LWP amounts. The latter is caused by a warm bias, which has a pronounced inversion structure and is largest in clear and calm conditions. Under strong synoptic forcing, the warm bias is constant with height and discrepancies in mixed-phase cloud altitude appear. Separating synoptic conditions is regarded as useful for process-oriented evaluation of the Arctic troposphere in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Rozendaal, Margaret A.↗