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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Support for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

In this research, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods are used to search an uncertain parameter space more efficiently for the most important inputs with respect to response sensitivities. These methods are applied to the Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) probabilistic fracture mechanics code used at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in support of nuclear regulatory research. This report documents two separate but related sub-tasks: (1) ranking important uncertain input features with respect to target outputs, determined by convergence in confidence intervals for increasing sample sizes using simple random sampling; and (2) implementation of a reduced-order surrogate model for fast, approximate sample generation. Unoptimized readily available off-the-shelf ML models were used in both sub-tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2000

Optimization of Car Body under Constraints of Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH), and Crash

To be competitive on the today's market, cars have to be as light as possible while meeting the Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) requirements and conforming to Government-man dated crash survival regulations. The latter are difficult to meet because they involve very compute-intensive, nonlinear analysis, e.g., the code RADIOSS capable of simulation of the dynamics, and the geometrical and material nonlinearities of a thin-walled car structure in crash, would require over 12 days of elapsed time for a single design of a 390K elastic degrees of freedom model, if executed on a single processor of the state-of-the-art SGI Origin2000 computer. Of course, in optimization that crash analysis would have to be invoked many times. Needless to say, that has rendered such optimization intractable until now. The car finite element model is shown. The advent of computers that comprise large numbers of concurrently operating processors has created a new environment wherein the above optimization, and other engineering problems heretofore regarded as intractable may be solved. The procedure, shown, is a piecewise approximation based method and involves using a sensitivity based Taylor series approximation model for NVH and a polynomial response surface model for Crash. In that method the NVH constraints are evaluated using a finite element code (MSC/NASTRAN) that yields the constraint values and their derivatives with respect to design variables. The crash constraints are evaluated using the explicit code RADIOSS on the Origin 2000 operating on 256 processors simultaneously to generate data for a polynomial response surface in the design variable domain. The NVH constraints and their derivatives combined with the response surface for the crash constraints form an approximation to the system analysis (surrogate analysis) that enables a cycle of multidisciplinary optimization within move limits. In the inner loop, the NVH sensitivities are recomputed to update the NVH approximation model while keeping the Crash response surface constant. In every outer loop, the Crash response surface approximation is updated, including a gradual increase in the order of the response surface and the response surface extension in the direction of the search. In this optimization task, the NVH discipline has 30 design variables while the crash discipline has 20 design variables. A subset of these design variables (10) are common to both the NVH and crash disciplines. In order to construct a linear response surface for the Crash discipline constraints, a minimum of 21 design points would have to be analyzed using the RADIOSS code. On a single processor in Origin 2000 that amount of computing would require over 9 months! In this work, these runs were carried out concurrently on the Origin 2000 using multiple processors, ranging from 8 to 16, for each crash (RADIOSS) analysis. Another figure shows the wall time required for a single RADIOSS analysis using varying number of processors, as well as provides a comparison of 2 different common data placement procedures within the allotted memories for each analysis. The initial design is an infeasible design with NVH discipline Static Torsion constraint violations of over 10%. The final optimized design is a feasible design with a weight reduction of 15 kg compared to the initial design. This work demonstrates how advanced methodology for optimization combined with the technology of concurrent processing enables applications that until now were out of reach because of very long time-to-solution.

Kodiyalam, Srinivas↗
NASA NTRS2004

Aerodynamic Optimization of Rocket Control Surface Geometry Using Cartesian Methods and CAD Geometry

Aerodynamic design is an iterative process involving geometry manipulation and complex computational analysis subject to physical constraints and aerodynamic objectives. A design cycle consists of first establishing the performance of a baseline design, which is usually created with low-fidelity engineering tools, and then progressively optimizing the design to maximize its performance. Optimization techniques have evolved from relying exclusively on designer intuition and insight in traditional trial and error methods, to sophisticated local and global search methods. Recent attempts at automating the search through a large design space with formal optimization methods include both database driven and direct evaluation schemes. Databases are being used in conjunction with surrogate and neural network models as a basis on which to run optimization algorithms. Optimization algorithms are also being driven by the direct evaluation of objectives and constraints using high-fidelity simulations. Surrogate methods use data points obtained from simulations, and possibly gradients evaluated at the data points, to create mathematical approximations of a database. Neural network models work in a similar fashion, using a number of high-fidelity database calculations as training iterations to create a database model. Optimal designs are obtained by coupling an optimization algorithm to the database model. Evaluation of the current best design then gives either a new local optima and/or increases the fidelity of the approximation model for the next iteration. Surrogate methods have also been developed that iterate on the selection of data points to decrease the uncertainty of the approximation model prior to searching for an optimal design. The database approximation models for each of these cases, however, become computationally expensive with increase in dimensionality. Thus the method of using optimization algorithms to search a database model becomes problematic as the number of design variables is increased.

Nelson, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural network acceleration of large-scale structure theory calculations

Here, we make use of neural networks to accelerate the calculation of power spectra required for the analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing data. For modern perturbation theory codes, evaluation time for a single cosmology and redshift can take on the order of two seconds. In combination with the comparable time required to compute linear predictions using a Boltzmann solver, these calculations are the bottleneck for many contemporary large-scale structure analyses. Here, we construct neural network-based surrogate models for Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) predictions of matter power spectra, real and redshift space galaxy power spectra, and galaxy-matter cross power spectra that attain ~ 0.1% (at one sigma) accuracy over a broad range of scales in a ωCDM parameter space. The neural network surrogates can be evaluated in approximately one millisecond, a factor of 1000 times faster than the full Boltzmann code and LPT computations. In a simulated full-shape redshift space galaxy power spectrum analysis, we demonstrate that the posteriors obtained using our surrogates are accurate compared to those obtained using the full LPT model. We make our surrogate models public at https://github.com/sfschen/EmulateLSS, so that others may take advantage of the speed gains they provide to enable rapid iteration on analysis settings, something that is essential in complex contemporary large-scale structure analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Monte Carlo event generation for neutrino-nucleus exclusive cross sections

Modern neutrino-nucleus cross section computations need to incorporate sophisticated nuclear models to achieve greater predictive precision. However, the computational complexity of these advanced models often limits their practicality for experimental analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a new Monte Carlo method utilizing normalizing flows to generate surrogate cross sections that closely approximate those of the original model while significantly reducing computational overhead. As a case study, we built a Monte Carlo event generator for the neutrino-nucleus cross section model developed by the Ghent group. This model employs a Hartree-Fock procedure to establish a quantum mechanical framework in which both the bound and scattering nucleon states are solutions to the mean-field nuclear potential. The surrogate cross sections generated by our method demonstrate excellent accuracy with a relative effective sample size of more than 98.4%, providing a computationally efficient alternative to traditional Monte Carlo sampling methods for differential cross sections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Helical Fins for Concentrated Solar Receivers: Design Optimization and Entropy Analysis

Concentrated solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) has the potential to achieve grid parity. This can be realized by operating CSP systems at temperatures above 700 °C with high-efficiency sCO 2 power cycles. However, operating CSP systems at such temperatures poses several challenges, among which the design of solar receivers to accommodate increased thermal loads is critical. To this end, this work explores and optimizes various swirl-inducing internal fin designs for solar receiver tubes. These fin designs not only improve the thermal performance of receiver tubes but also levelize temperature unevenness caused by non-uniform thermal loading. In this work, the geometric parameters of the fin designs are optimized to maximize the Nusselt number with a constraint on the friction factor. This optimization, however, is computationally intensive, requiring hundreds of simulation calls to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. Here, to circumvent this problem, surrogate models are used to approximate the simulation outputs needed during the optimization. In addition, this study also examines the fin designs from an entropy generation perspective. To this end, the entropy contributions from thermal and viscous effects are quantitatively compared while varying the operational Reynolds number.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗
DOE OSTI2023

BUQEYE guide to projection-based emulators in nuclear physics

The BUQEYE collaboration (Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors in Your effective field theory) presents a pedagogical introduction to projection-based, reduced-order emulators for applications in low-energy nuclear physics. The term emulator refers here to a fast surrogate model capable of reliably approximating high-fidelity models. As the general tools employed by these emulators are not yet well-known in the nuclear physics community, we discuss variational and Galerkin projection methods, emphasize the benefits of offline-online decompositions, and explore how these concepts lead to emulators for bound and scattering systems that enable fast and accurate calculations using many different model parameter sets. We also point to future extensions and applications of these emulators for nuclear physics, guided by the mature field of model (order) reduction. All examples discussed here and more are available as interactive, open-source Python code so that practitioners can readily adapt projection-based emulators for their own work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Precision Measurements of Mirror Coating Non-Uniformities and Implications for Coronagraphy

High contrast, coronagraphic imaging systems, such as proposed for the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) mission, require very high levels of wavefront phase and amplitude uniformity (of order 10(exp -4) in order to reveal faint terrestrial planets in orbit near their parent stars. Knowledge of amplitude non-uniformities with large optical systems to this level and essentially unknown. We have bui1t an instrument to provide such measurements on a few selected coatings using surrogate witness samples configured to approximate a large diameter mirror and provide some initial data at the precision required. Here we present the results of this work to date, and show the imp1ications for high contrast coronagraphy.

Bowers, Charles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate Model Guided Optimization of Expensive Black-Box Multi-Objective Problems: A Posteriori Methods

Many engineering applications require the simultaneous optimization of multiple conflicting objective functions. Often, these objective functions are evaluated using highly accurate computer simulations that are computationally too expensive to be evaluated hundreds or thousands of times during optimization. Thus, the goal is to find good approximations of the Pareto front using as few of these expensive simulations as possible. Here, we describe an optimization approach based on surrogate models and diverse sampling strategies to accelerate the search for the Pareto solutions. We use a separate surrogate model for approximating each objective function and then we use the surrogate models to inform where additional expensive simulations should be run. The surrogate models are updated in an active learning framework whenever new information from the expensive simulations becomes available. The sampling strategies aim at balancing local improvements of the approximate Pareto front and global exploration to identify the extrema and fill in large gaps of the approximate Pareto front. We demonstrate on a large set of benchmark problems the effectiveness of the method for finding good approximations of the Pareto front.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1998

Using Approximations to Accelerate Engineering Design Optimization

Optimization problems that arise in engineering design are often characterized by several features that hinder the use of standard nonlinear optimization techniques. Foremost among these features is that the functions used to define the engineering optimization problem often are computationally intensive. Within a standard nonlinear optimization algorithm, the computational expense of evaluating the functions that define the problem would necessarily be incurred for each iteration of the optimization algorithm. Faced with such prohibitive computational costs, an attractive alternative is to make use of surrogates within an optimization context since surrogates can be chosen or constructed so that they are typically much less expensive to compute. For the purposes of this paper, we will focus on the use of algebraic approximations as surrogates for the objective. In this paper we introduce the use of so-called merit functions that explicitly recognize the desirability of improving the current approximation to the objective during the course of the optimization. We define and experiment with the use of merit functions chosen to simultaneously improve both the solution to the optimization problem (the objective) and the quality of the approximation. Our goal is to further improve the effectiveness of our general approach without sacrificing any of its rigor.

Torczon, Virginia↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of strength model parameters from Taylor impact data

Materials strength plays a key role in determining the mechanical response of engineered structures. As such, accurate strength models are crucial in simulations involving complex loading conditions, particularly when deformation in the plastic regime is deemed important. In this work, a Gaussian process based surrogate for a finite element simulation of a Taylor impact test is developed and used for Bayesian calibration of the Preston–Tonks–Wallace strength model. Here, the surrogate model is shown to closely approximate the salient features of the Taylor cylinder deformation and is validated against simulation output before being used in the strength model calibration routine. The results show that Taylor impact test data can be used in the calibration of constitutive equations through the use of a combination of data science techniques, namely Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate Hessian accelerated structural optimization for stochastic electronic structure theories

In this work, we present an efficient energy-based method for structural optimization with stochastic electronic structure theories, such as diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC). This method is based on robust line-search energy minimization in reduced parameter space, exploiting approximate but accurate Hessian information from a surrogate theory, such as density functional theory. The surrogate theory is also used to characterize the potential energy surface, allowing for simple but reliable ways to maximize statistical efficiency while retaining controllable accuracy. We demonstrate the method by finding the minimum DMC energy structures of the selected flake-like aromatic molecules, such as benzene, coronene, and ovalene, represented by 2, 6, and 19 structural parameters, respectively. In each case, the energy minimum is found within two parallel line-search iterations. The method is near-optimal for a line-search technique and suitable for a broad range of applications. It is easily generalized to any electronic structure method where forces and stresses are still under active development and implementation, such as diffusion Monte Carlo, auxiliary-field Monte Carlo, and stochastic configuration interaction, as well as deterministic approaches such as the random-phase approximation. Accurate and efficient means of geometry optimization could shed light on a broad class of materials and molecules, showing high sensitivity of induced properties to structural variables.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Visible and Near-IR Reflectance Spectra of Smectite Acquired Under Dry Conditions for Interpretation of Martian Surface Mineralogy

Visible and near-IR (VNIR) spectra from the MEx OMEGA and the MRO CRISM hyper-spectral imaging instruments have spectral features associated with the H2O molecule and M OH functional groups (M = Mg, Fe, Al, and Si). Mineralogical assignments of martian spectral features are made on the basis of laboratory VNIR spectra, which were often acquired under ambient (humid) conditions. Smectites like nontronite, saponite, and montmorillionite have interlayer H2O that is exchangeable with their environment, and we have acquired smectite reflectance spectra under dry environmental conditions for interpretation of martian surface mineralogy. We also obtained chemical, Moessbauer (MB), powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), and thermogravimetric (TG) data to understand variations in spectral properties. VNIR spectra were recorded in humid lab air at 25-35C, in a dynamic dry N2 atmosphere (50-150 ppmv H2O) after exposing the smectite samples (5 nontronites, 3 montmorillionites, and 1 saponite) to that atmosphere for up to approximately l000 hr each at 25-35C, approximately 105C, and approximately 215C, and after re-exposure to humid lab air. Heating at 105C and 215C for approximately 1000 hr is taken as a surrogate for geologic time scales at lower temperatures. Upon exposure to dry N2, the position and intensity of spectral features associated with M-OH were relatively insensitive to the dry environment, and the spectral features associated with H2O (e.g., approximately 1.90 micrometers) decreased in intensity and are sometimes not detectable by the end of the 215C heating step. The position and intensity of H2O spectral features recovered upon re-exposure to lab air. XRD data show interlayer collapse for the nontronites and Namontmorillionites, with the interlayer remaining collapsed for the latter after re-exposure to lab air. The interlayer did not collapse for the saponite and Ca-montmorillionite. TG data show that the concentration of H2O derived from structural OH was invariant to the dry N2 treatment for saponite and the montmorillionites, but the nontronites had additional structural OH after treatment. Upon exposure to dry N2, the VNIR spectra also acquired a red slope with decreasing albedo between approximately 0.4 and approximately 2.0 micrometers. The magnitude of the effects covaries with exposure time to dry N2 and heating temperature. Upon re-exposure to lab air, the slope and albedo do not completely recover to pre-exposure values. MB data show that these effects do not result from partial reduction of ferric to ferrous iron, and TG data show they do not result from loss of structural OH. Possible explanations include formation of small clusters of (superparamagnetic) ferric oxide and reduced smectite crystallinity. The difference in spectral properties between spectra acquired in humid lab air and under dry conditions are consequential for interpretation of CRISM and OMEGA spectra. For example, nontronite by itself and not nontronite plus ferrihydrite can account for the red spectral slope in martian spectra where nontronite is indicated by the Fe-OH spectral features.

Morris, Richard V.↗