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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Editorial for Special Issue “Environmentally Sound In Situ Recovery Mining of Uranium”

This Special Issue features seven articles that cover a range of topics pertaining to the environmentally sound in situ recovery mining of uranium (U ISR). The topics include: (1) methods for assessing the potential environmental impacts of future U ISR operations using historical operational records and available geohydrologic, geochemical and climate data in a specific regional setting; (2) laboratory column studies to parameterize a uranium surface complexation model that can be used to predict uranium fate and transport in groundwater; and (3) a field evaluation of both a chemical reductant and a biostimulant to promote reducing geochemical conditions after oxidative mining at a U ISR facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular hybrid modeling to increase efficiency, explore structural uncertainty, and allow multidimensional complexity scaling in land surface models

Land surface models (LSMs) are indispensable tools for predicting hydrologic extremes, as well as a particularly uncertain component of Earth system models that has stubbornly resisted the convergence in projections over several successive generations of model intercomparisons. This uncertainty in LSMs is poorly quantified and poorly attributed to specific processes, which has hampered efforts to focus research in reducing uncertainty. This has resulted from sparse sampling of the possible uncertainty space—which is high-dimensional and has contributions from parametric, structural, initial, and boundary condition uncertainties—as an artifact of CMIP-type ensembles of opportunity and limitations inherent in observational benchmarks. A new approach is needed to understand and reduce this uncertainty, based around individual LSMs that can represent the breadth of assumptions represented in current CMIP-type efforts, while at the same time exploring that uncertainty in a systematic way, confronting multiple types of observations, and where justified, replacing process representations with ML-driven emulators. We propose an approach of modular hybrid modeling to address these challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

M4SF-22LL010301062-Surface Complexation Database and Hybrid ML Model Development for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-22LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-22LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Community Data Mining Approach for Surface Complexation Database Development

This paper presents a comprehensive data-to-model workflow, including a findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable (FAIR) community sorption database (newly developed LLNL Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange (L-SCIE) database) along with a data fitting workflow to efficiently optimize surface complexation reaction constants with multiple surface complexation model (SCM) constructs. This workflow serves as a universal framework to mine, compile, and analyze large numbers of published sorption data as well as to estimate reaction constants for parameterizing reactive transport models. Here the framework includes (1) data digitization from published papers, (2) data unification including unit conversions, and (3) data-model integration and reaction constant estimation using geochemical software PHREEQC coupled with the universal parameter estimation code PEST. We demonstrate our approach using an analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz based on a first L-SCIE implementation, concluding that a multisite SCM construct with carbonate surface species yielded the best fit to community data. Surface complexation reaction constants extracted from this approach captured all available sorption data available in the literature and provided insight into previously published reaction constants and surface complexation model constructs. The L-SCIE sorption database presented herein allows for automating this approach across a wide range of metals and minerals and implementing novel machine learning approaches to reactive transport in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating three evapotranspiration estimates from model of different complexity over China using the ILAMB benchmarking system

The land surface models range in complexity of terrestrial evapotranspiration, yet it is unknown how model complexity translates to accuracy of modeled evapotranspiration estimates. Here, we use the International Land Model Benchmarking system to assess ET estimates from three models of varying complexity driven by the same forcing datasets: an earth system model, a terrestrial biosphere model, and a stand-alone ET model. The performance assessment includes both temporal and spatial evaluation, and different plant functional types across China. Our results indicate that the most complex model, an earth system model, performed best against the benchmarking datasets and metrics. Terrestrial biosphere model performed best in simulating inter-annual variability of ET, while earth system model performed best in simulating the seasonal cycle. The more complex models (earth system model and terrestrial biosphere model) perform better in forest, shrub and crop ecosystems, while the simpler model (stand-alone ET model) perform better in grass ecosystems. Our study demonstrates the impact of model complexity on ET estimates and highlights directions for future ET model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Baltimore MD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

The intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change poses a threat to aging and under-designed water infrastructure systems which cannot adequately manage intense storm events. Developing a comprehensive plan for managing rain-driven flooding events is challenging due to uncertainties in the magnitude and frequency of future storm events and conflicting stakeholder objectives. In the City of Baltimore, Maryland, stormwater infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding events, which regularly damage housing and disrupt transportation for residents. In this study, a hybrid of community engagement, numerical modeling, and artificial intelligence techniques are employed to explore prospective urban flooding adaptations. Community engagement drives the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed. The model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data from the City, high-resolution spatial data, insights from local public works experts, and the lived experiences of City residents. This co-developed model simulates adaptations of interest to stakeholders in the city, including green and grey infrastructure and operational management strategies. Stormwater management scenarios focused on inlet cleaning and spatially concentrated green infrastructure are found to be the most effective in reducing flood depths in community priority locations. Together, these adaptations can reduce the duration of intersection inundation by more than twenty minutes, allowing for quicker emergency response and restoration of typical transportation systems. Future work will combine this community engaged flooding model with the Deep Uncertainties Pathways framework to explore tradeoffs between adaptations and develop dynamic adaptations which align with community objectives, enhance climate resilience in Baltimore, and can be adjusted in response to changing future conditions.

Ava, Spangler [Pennsylvania State University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)

Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage

Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. Apart from mean precipitation and evaporation changes, it is unknown how daily-scale precipitation concentration into fewer, heavier events affects hydrologic partitioning and the land water balance. Here we show observationally that more concentrated precipitation decreases land water availability across all climates globally, a drying effect as strong in magnitude as the wetting effect of increased total precipitation. Simple and complex land-surface models recover the observed effect, whereas idealized simulations show that it arises from enhanced evaporation caused by hydrologic partitioning changes at the land surface. Projected terrestrial water storage impacts of warming-driven precipitation concentration at about 2 °C of warming shift the land surface to abnormally dry conditions (≥0.5 standard deviation) for 27% of the global population, independent of any total precipitation or irrigation changes. Our results show new key determinants of the land water balance, highlighting its sensitivity to the temporal distribution of precipitation, with broad implications for future water availability.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxyanion Surface Complexes Control the Kinetics and Pathway of Ferrihydrite Transformation to Goethite and Hematite

The rate and pathway of ferrihydrite (Fh) transformation at oxic conditions to more stable products is controlled largely by temperature, pH, and the presence of other ions in the system such as nitrate (NO 3 - ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), and arsenate (AsO 4 3- ). Although the mechanism of Fh transformation and oxyanion complexation have been separately studied, the effect of surface complex type and strength on the rate and pathway remains only partly understood. We have developed a kinetic model that describes the effects of surface complex type and strength on Fh transformation to goethite (Gt) and hematite (Hm). Two sets of oxyanion-adsorbed Fh samples were prepared, nonbuffered and buffered, aged at 70 ± 1.5 °C, and then characterized using synchrotron X-ray scattering methods and wet chemical analysis. Kinetic modeling showed a significant decrease in the rate of Fh transformation for oxyanion surface complexes dominated by strong inner-sphere (SO 4 2- and AsO 4 3- ) versus weak outer-sphere (NO 3 - ) bonding and the control. The results also showed that the Fh transformation pathway is influenced by the type of surface complex such that with increasing strength of bonding, a smaller fraction of Gt forms compared with Hm. In conclusion, these findings are important for understanding and predicting the role of Fh in controlling the transport and fate of metal and metalloid oxyanions in natural and applied systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Land Model Testbed: Accelerating Development, Benchmarking and Analysis of Land Surface Models

A Land Model Testbed (LMT), designed to provide a computational framework for systematically assessing model fidelity and supporting rapid development of complex multiscale models, offers a general-purpose workflow for conducting large ensemble simulations of multiple land surface models, post-processing large volumes of model output, and evaluating model results. It leverages existing tools for launching model simulations and the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for assessing model fidelity through comparison with best-available observational datasets. Increased complexity and proliferation of uncertain parameters in process representations in land surface models has driven the need for frequent and intensive testing and evaluating of models to quantify uncertainties and optimize parameters such that results are consistent with observations. The LMT described here meets these needs by providing tools to run thousands of ensemble simulations simultaneously and post-process their output files, by automating execution of an enhanced version of ILAMB with site-specific benchmarks and multivariate functional relationships, and by offering ensemble diagnostics and a customizable dashboard for displaying model performance metrics and associated graphics. We envision the LMT capabilities will serve as a foundational computational resource for a proposed user facility focused on terrestrial multiscale model--data integration.

Sreepathi, Sarat↗
DOE OSTI2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf

Abstract. Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystem function and soil quality. Salinity influences carbon cycling through direct effects on microbial activity and indirect alterations to soil physicochemical properties including cation exchange, pH, and soil organic carbon availability. Current models inadequately represent these complexities, relying on linear reduction functions that overlook specific physicochemical changes induced by salinity. To address this gap, we propose an integrated model framework, AquaMEND, that combines microbial-explicit carbon decomposition and geochemical models. This model allows cation exchange and surface complexation processes to capture solute chemistry and nutrient availability in soils upon saltwater intrusion. Using response functions that capture salinity impacts on both salt-sensitive and salt-resistant microbial processes, AquaMEND simulates how the abiotic and biotic mechanisms work individually and collectively to regulate organic and inorganic pools and fluxes. Here, the parallel structure of aqueous and non-aqueous phases, together with microbial functions, result in a versatile model for solving dynamic coupling of organics, minerals and microbes under various environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Zn uptake by illite and argillaceous rocks

The uptake of Zn by Illite du Puy (IdP) and two argillaceous rocks, Opalinus Clay (OPA) and Boda Claystone (BODA) was investigated. The uptake of Zn by illite was studied in 0.1 M NaCl at near-neutral pH and Zn loadings varying from 2.1 to 42 mmol/kg. The Zn uptake by the two argillaceous rock systems was carried out in 0.1 M NaCl at pH 7.2 and in their respective porewaters at pH 8.0 to evaluate the influence of porewater composition. The Zn loadings varied from 1.8 to 86 mmol/kg and 1.7 to 60 mmol/kg for OPA and BODA, respectively. The simplified “bottom-up approach” to predict the uptake of Zn to natural rocks with different clay mineral contents and porewater compositions was tested. This approach was found to be applicable in the argillaceous rock systems at low Zn equilibrium ([Zn] eql ) concentrations below 10 -7 M. However, at [Zn]eql above 10 -7 M, the model calculations clearly underpredicted the sorption data. The extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) results support findings based on wet chemistry calculations using the 2 site protolysis non-electrostatic surface complexation and cation exchange (2SPNE SC/CE) sorption model. In the IdP system with prolonged reaction times of up to two years, formation of Zn precipitates was not observed. This indicates that the Zn surface complexes are stable over a time period of two years, and dissolution and recrystallization processes might not play a significant role in the Zn-IdP uptake process. In addition, the EXAFS results on illite corroborate previous findings on the existence of weak and strong sites types in dioctahedral clay minerals, as assumed in the 2SPNE SC/CE model. In the OPA and BODA systems, precipitation processes could start to begin at metal loadings of 16 mmol/kg and 24 mmol/kg, respectively. The differences between argillaceous rock samples prepared in NaCl and porewater are modest indicating that in the case of Zn the clay minerals play a predominant role in the uptake process, and that the effects originating from the porewater are minor. Furthermore, despite the differences in mineralogy, both argillaceous rocks show the same uptake behaviour, indicating that the clay minerals are predominantly responsible for the sorption at low and the precipitation processes at higher Zn concentrations. The study demonstrates how results on “pure” systems such as IdP can be transferred to predict the uptake by argillaceous rocks at low sorbate concentrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗