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At least 55 records · Page 3

Modeling surface deformations at complex strike-slip plate boundaries

Two new versions of the physical base-traction model of Li and Rice (1987) have been developed to study the loading processes and surface deformation near plate boundaries with geometric complexities, including a shallow creeping fault segment and two subparallel faults. Predictions of surface velocity and surface slip rate for the region between the San Andreas fault and the Pacific coast at the latitude of the Parkfield-Cholame segment using model parameters based on geologic, geodetic, and seismic considerations were found to be in good agreement with contemporary geodetic field data (not used in constrainning model parameters). Also, predicted surface velocity for the Salton Sea-Coachella Valley area were fit to recently derived contemporary geodetic data and very large baseline interferometry data, althoug here the model parameters are not well constrained.

Li, Victor C.↗

An Example of Economic Value in Rapid Prototyping

Today's modern machining projects are composed more and more of complicated and intricate structure due to a variety of reasons including the ability to computer model complex surfaces and forms. The cost of producing these forms can be extremely high not only in dollars but in time to complete. Changes are even more difficult to incorporate. The subject blade shown is an excellent example. Its complex form would have required hundreds of hours in fabrication for just a simple prototype. The procurement would have taken in the neighborhood of six weeks to complete. The actual fabrication would have been an equal amount of time to complete. An alternative to this process would have been a wood model. Although cheaper than a metal fabrication, it would be extremely time intensive and require in the neighborhood of a month to produce in-house.

Hauer, R. L.↗

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗

Surface Reactivity Analysis of the Crude Oil–Brine–Limestone Interface for a Comprehensive Understanding of the Low-Salinity Waterflooding Mechanism

Low-salinity waterflooding (LSWF) has proven to improve oil recovery in carbonate formations through rock wettability alteration, although the underlying mechanism remains elusive. Multivalent ionic exchange and calcite dissolution have usually been investigated using geochemical analysis in secondary coreflooding. In this work, coreflooding, in tertiary mode, coupled with a surface reactivity analysis approach was employed to investigate the interplay of wettability alteration mechanisms such as mineral dissolution, electrostatic bond attraction, and the effect of pH at in situ conditions. Improved oil recovery (IOR) in tertiary mode observed by coreflooding in Indiana limestone rocks showed an ionic strength dependence, that is, reducing brine ionic strength resulted in an increase in oil recovery. Coreflooding results showed that the seawater and low-salinity brines deprived of Mg 2+ ions resulted in the lowest IOR in tertiary mode, indicating the significance of Mg 2+ on IOR in limestone rocks. Similar results were observed through the contact angle measurement showing the limestone rock wettability state dependence on ionic strength and the effect of Mg2+ ions. Surface reactivity analysis showed an increase in solution pH, Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ ions concentration in the effluent solution from the coreflooding in tertiary mode using low salinity brines (about 40 and 20% increase in the effluent composition for Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ , respectively). These changes in solution composition were used to calculate the in situ oil–brine and rock–brine zeta potential using a validated surface complexation model, showing the changes of zeta potential as brine is injected into limestone rocks. The results show that using seawater-like brine in tertiary mode resulted in no mineral dissolution or ionic exchange. However, improved oil recovery (IOR) using such seawater-like brine was due to wettability alteration caused by reduced electrostatic bond attraction associated with Mg 2+ ions [from 2.6 × 10 –13 (mol/m 2 ) 2 for formation water salinity to 1.5 × 10 –13 (mol/m 2 ) 2 for seawater salinity]. Using low-salinity brines in tertiary mode improved oil recovery by mineral dissolution, resulting in oil desorption and an increase in solution pH. Finally, the increase in solution pH also resulted in reduced electrostatic bond attraction which lead to rock wettability alteration using low-salinity brines.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Non-Electrostatic Surface Complexation Database for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-21LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-21LL010301061. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is surface complexation model international collaborations. Specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nuclear Global Talent Development Program (Final Report)

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed sorption database named as L-SCIE (LLNL Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange). This framework (L-SCIE) includes not only a community database of sorption data but also a fitting workflow to produce optimized surface complexation reaction constants. Through this fellowship program we have updated the L-SCIE database for selenium (Se) sorption and potentiometric titration data of iron oxides. In addition, the relevant surface complexation models (SCMs) have been updated and details in model construction are given in the following section.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Editorial for Special Issue “Environmentally Sound In Situ Recovery Mining of Uranium”

This Special Issue features seven articles that cover a range of topics pertaining to the environmentally sound in situ recovery mining of uranium (U ISR). The topics include: (1) methods for assessing the potential environmental impacts of future U ISR operations using historical operational records and available geohydrologic, geochemical and climate data in a specific regional setting; (2) laboratory column studies to parameterize a uranium surface complexation model that can be used to predict uranium fate and transport in groundwater; and (3) a field evaluation of both a chemical reductant and a biostimulant to promote reducing geochemical conditions after oxidative mining at a U ISR facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simple models for complex natural surfaces - A strategy for the hyperspectral era of remote sensing

A two-step strategy for analyzing multispectral images is described. In the first step, the analyst decomposes the signal from each pixel (as expressed by the radiance or reflectance values in each channel) into components that are contributed by spectrally distinct materials on the ground, and those that are due to atmospheric effects, instrumental effects, and other factors, such as illumination. In the second step, the isolated signals from the materials on the ground are selectively edited, and recombined to form various unit maps that are interpretable within the framework of field units. The approach has been tested on multispectral images of a variety of natural land surfaces ranging from hyperarid deserts to tropical rain forests. Data were analyzed from Landsat MSS (multispectral scanner) and TM (Thematic Mapper), the airborne NS001 TM simulator, Viking Lander and Orbiter, AIS, and AVRIS (Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer).

Adams, John B.↗

Modular hybrid modeling to increase efficiency, explore structural uncertainty, and allow multidimensional complexity scaling in land surface models

Land surface models (LSMs) are indispensable tools for predicting hydrologic extremes, as well as a particularly uncertain component of Earth system models that has stubbornly resisted the convergence in projections over several successive generations of model intercomparisons. This uncertainty in LSMs is poorly quantified and poorly attributed to specific processes, which has hampered efforts to focus research in reducing uncertainty. This has resulted from sparse sampling of the possible uncertainty space—which is high-dimensional and has contributions from parametric, structural, initial, and boundary condition uncertainties—as an artifact of CMIP-type ensembles of opportunity and limitations inherent in observational benchmarks. A new approach is needed to understand and reduce this uncertainty, based around individual LSMs that can represent the breadth of assumptions represented in current CMIP-type efforts, while at the same time exploring that uncertainty in a systematic way, confronting multiple types of observations, and where justified, replacing process representations with ML-driven emulators. We propose an approach of modular hybrid modeling to address these challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

M4SF-22LL010301062-Surface Complexation Database and Hybrid ML Model Development for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-22LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-22LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Community Data Mining Approach for Surface Complexation Database Development

This paper presents a comprehensive data-to-model workflow, including a findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable (FAIR) community sorption database (newly developed LLNL Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange (L-SCIE) database) along with a data fitting workflow to efficiently optimize surface complexation reaction constants with multiple surface complexation model (SCM) constructs. This workflow serves as a universal framework to mine, compile, and analyze large numbers of published sorption data as well as to estimate reaction constants for parameterizing reactive transport models. Here the framework includes (1) data digitization from published papers, (2) data unification including unit conversions, and (3) data-model integration and reaction constant estimation using geochemical software PHREEQC coupled with the universal parameter estimation code PEST. We demonstrate our approach using an analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz based on a first L-SCIE implementation, concluding that a multisite SCM construct with carbonate surface species yielded the best fit to community data. Surface complexation reaction constants extracted from this approach captured all available sorption data available in the literature and provided insight into previously published reaction constants and surface complexation model constructs. The L-SCIE sorption database presented herein allows for automating this approach across a wide range of metals and minerals and implementing novel machine learning approaches to reactive transport in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Engineering and fabrication cost considerations for cryogenic wind tunnel models

Design and fabrication cost drivers for cryogenic transonic wind tunnel models are defined. The major cost factors for wind tunnel models are model complexity, tolerances, surface finishes, materials, material validation, and model inspection. The cryogenic temperatures require the use of materials with relatively high fracture toughness but at the same time high strength. Some of these materials are very difficult to machine, requiring extensive machine hours which can add significantly to the manufacturing costs. Some additional engineering costs are incurred to certify the materials through mechanical tests and nondestructive evaluation techniques, which are not normally required with conventional models. When instrumentation such as accelerometers and electronically scanned pressure modules is required, temperature control of these devices needs to be incorporated into the design, which requires added effort. Additional thermal analyses and subsystem tests may be necessary, which also adds to the design costs. The largest driver to the design costs is potentially the additional static and dynamic analyses required to insure structural integrity of the model and support system.

Boykin, R. M., Jr.↗

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗

One-level modeling for diagnosing surface winds over complex terrain. II - Applicability to short-range forecasting

The Alpert and Getenio (1988) modification of the Mass and Dempsey (1985) one-level sigma-surface model was used to study four synoptic events that included two winter cases (a Cyprus low and a Siberian high) and two summer cases. Results of statistical verification showed that the model is not only capable of diagnosing many details of surface mesoscale flow, but might also be useful for various applications which require operative short-range prediction of the diurnal changes of high-resolution surface flow over complex terrain, for example, in locating wildland fires, determining the dispersion of air pollutants, and predicting changes in wind energy or of surface wind for low-level air flights.

Alpert, P.↗

Adsorption of humic acids and trace metals in natural waters

Studies concerning the interactions between suspended hydrous iron oxide and dissolved humic acids and trace metals are reported. As a major component of dissolved organic matters and its readiness for adsorption at the solid/water interface, humic acids may play a very important role in the organometallic geochemistry of suspended sediments and in determining the fate and distribution of trace metals, pesticides and anions in natural water systems. Most of the solid phases in natural waters contain oxides and hydroxides. The most simple promising theory to describe the interactions of hydrous iron oxide interface is the surface complex formation model. In this model, the adsorptions of humic acids on hydrous iron oxide may be interpreted as complex formation of the organic bases (humic acid oxyanions) with surface Fe ions. Measurements on adsorptions were made in both fresh water and seawater. Attempts have been made to fit our data to Langmuir adsorption isotherm. Adsorption equilibrium constants were determined.

Leung, W. H.↗

Applications of Response Surface-Based Methods to Noise Analysis in the Conceptual Design of Revolutionary Aircraft

Due to the growing problem of noise in today's air transportation system, there have arisen needs to incorporate noise considerations in the conceptual design of revolutionary aircraft. Through the use of response surfaces, complex noise models may be converted into polynomial equations for rapid and simplified evaluation. This conversion allows many of the commonly used response surface-based trade space exploration methods to be applied to noise analysis. This methodology is demonstrated using a noise model of a notional 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transport. Response surfaces are created relating source noise levels of the BWB vehicle to its corresponding FAR-36 certification noise levels and the resulting trade space is explored. Methods demonstrated include: single point analysis, parametric study, an optimization technique for inverse analysis, sensitivity studies, and probabilistic analysis. Extended applications of response surface-based methods in noise analysis are also discussed.

Hill, Geoffrey A.↗

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗