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DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning in materials research: Developments over the last decade and challenges for the future

The number of studies that apply machine learning (ML) to materials science has been growing at a rate of approximately 1.67 times per year over the past decade. In this review, I examine this growth in various contexts. First, I present an analysis of the most commonly used tools (software, databases, materials science methods, and ML methods) used within papers that apply ML to materials science. The analysis demonstrates that despite the growth of deep learning techniques, the use of classical machine learning is still dominant as a whole. It also demonstrates how new research can effectively build upon past research, particular in the domain of ML models trained on density functional theory calculation data. Next, I present the progression of best scores as a function of time on the matbench materials science benchmark for formation enthalpy prediction. In particular, a dramatic improvement of 7 times reduction in error is obtained when progressing from feature-based methods that use conventional ML (random forest, support vector regression, etc.) to the use of graph neural network techniques. Finally, I provide views on future challenges and opportunities, focusing on data size and complexity, extrapolation, interpretation, access, and relevance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration and Optimization of a Waste Heat Driven Organic Rankine Cycle for Power Generation in Wastewater Treatment Plants

The study focuses on achieving energy self-sufficiency in Wastewater Treatment Plants by proposing a comprehensive model for integrating, sizing, and optimizing an Organic Rankine Cycle system. The Organic Rankine Cycle system is designed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant in Jordan, where it will contribute to the overall electrical energy supply of the plant. Real data from As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant is used to model and calculate the available waste heat using TRNSYS® software. The Organic Rankine Cycle model is then developed using ASPEN PLUS® software to explore the impact of operational parameters and determine their optimal values for maximizing the plant's energy profile. An economic analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility of the proposed model, considering system components, installation, operation, and maintenance costs. To optimize the Organic Rankine Cycle system, the study employs the Multi-Output Support Vector Regression technique to capture nonlinear relationships between independent variables (fluid type, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, turbine outlet pressure, and mass flow rate) and dependent variables (pump power input, waste heat input, and turbine specific work). The Osprey optimization algorithm is used to address the multi-objective optimization problem, with the proposed Pareto-based Osprey Optimization Algorithm and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization technique being employed to evaluate critical performance and economic parameters such as system thermal efficiency, net power output, and the levelized cost of electricity. The results of the optimization strategies indicate that the M-SVR model's prediction accuracy is significantly improved after parameter optimization, with the model returning high R 2 and low Mean Square Error values of 0.991 and 0.00216, respectively. The Pareto-Based Osprey Optimization Algorithm optimizer identifies the best working fluid as Isobutane/Isopentane in a ratio of 66:34, with optimal turbine inlet pressure and temperature of 15 bars and 218 °C, respectively. In conclusion, the Organic Rankine Cycle model at these optimal conditions achieves a cycle efficiency of 19.93% and an Levelized Cost of Electricity value of 0.0353 USD/kWh.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive techno-eco-assessment of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery projects using a machine-learning assisted workflow

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) projects not only extract residual oil but also sequestrate CO 2 in the depleted reservoirs. Here, this study develops a machine-learning-based workflow to co-optimize the hydrocarbon recovery, CO 2 sequestration volume and project net present value (NPV) simultaneously. Considering the trade-off relationships among the objective functions, support vector regression with Gaussian kernel (Gaussian- SVR) proxies are coupled with multi-objective particle swarm optimization (PSO) protocol and generate Pareto optimal solutions. Taking advantage of the high computational efficacy of the proxy model, economic uncertainties introduced by tax credits, capital costs and oil price are investigated by this study. The results indicate that the tax incentive policy (Section 45Q) plays a vital role in enhancing the economic returns of CO 2 -EOR projects, especially under the depression of crude oil market. The proposed workflow has been successfully implemented to optimize a water alternative CO 2 (CO 2 -WAG) injection project in a depleted oil sand in the US. The optimization results yield an incremental oil production of 15.8 MM STB and 1.37 MM metric tons of CO 2 storage in a 20-year development strategy, with the highest project NPV to be 205.6 MM US dollars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction and uncertainty quantification of shale well performance using multifidelity Monte Carlo

Uncertainty quantification is an integral component of reservoir management, especially considering the inherent uncertainty in subsurface systems. While a standard practice to estimate the uncertainty, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intense when the sampling population comprises high-fidelity simulations. Alternatively, the Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) simulation overcomes this computational intensity by integrating low- and high-fidelity simulations. Our goal is to minimize the number of expensive high-fidelity simulations while maintaining accuracy and using numerous fast and cheap low-fidelity simulations to efficiently sample to input parameter space of interest. We selected gas production from unconventional wells to demonstrate the potential speedups and accuracy of the MFMC approach. The model fidelity usually determines the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. While the high-fidelity model is more accurate, the low-fidelity model is more efficient. Our high-fidelity simulation includes reservoir simulations of a hydraulically fractured well. On the other hand, our low-fidelity model comprises the parallel-plate flow model. We used differential programming to efficiently solve the 1D flow model, where automatic differentiation is used to efficiently compute the gradients. We matched the production profile of high-fidelity simulations with our low-fidelity simulations. Then, we used a support vector regression to map the high- and low-fidelity input parameters. The mapping function is essential to tune the low-dimensional parameter space of the low-fidelity model to the high-dimensional parameter space of the high-fidelity model. We found that we can use a combination of 9 high fidelity and 10,000 low fidelity simulations to efficiently and accurately simulate pressure management. This method is at least two orders of magnitude faster than only using high-fidelity simulations. Finally, from a broader perspective, MFMC could efficiently estimate the uncertainty of various systems and models, integrating low- and high-fidelity models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using machine learning to predict the correlation of spectra using SDSS magnitudes as an improvement to the Locus Algorithm

The Locus Algorithm is a new technique to improve the quality of differential photometry by optimising the choices of reference stars. At the heart of this algorithm is a routine to assess how good each potential reference star is by comparing its SDSS magnitude values to those of the target star. In this way, the difference in wavelength-dependent effects of the Earth’s atmospheric scattering between target and reference can be minimised. This paper sets out a new way to estimate the quality of each reference star using machine learning. A random subset of stars from SDSS with spectra was chosen. For each one, a suitable reference star, also with a spectrum, was chosen. The correlation between the two spectra in the SDSS r band (between 550 nm and 700 nm) was taken to be the gold-standard measure of how well they match up for differential photometry. The five SDSS magnitude values for each of these stars were used as predictors. A number of supervised machine learning models were constructed on a training set of the stars and were each evaluated on a testing set. The model using Support Vector Regression had the best performance of these models. It was then tested on a final, hold-out, validation set of stars to get an unbiased measure of its performance. With an R 2 of 0.62, the SVR model presents enhanced performance for the Locus Algorithm technique.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated and High-Throughput Phase Separation Control for Supramolecular Polymer Blends Enabled by Machine Learning

Supramolecular polymer blends (SPBs) offer tunable morphologies that dictate their macroscopic properties, yet their rational design is limited by the absence of predictive structure−morphology models. Here, we introduce a data-driven highthroughput workflow that integrates modular polymer synthesis, robotic formulation, automated morphology characterization, and machine learning (ML) for accelerated SPB discovery. Using a plug-and-play synthetic strategy, 33 hydrogen-bonding endfunctional homopolymers were prepared and orthogonally combined to generate 260 SPBs in 1 day. A fully automated atomic force microscopy (AFM) pipeline enabled systematic imaging, producing 2340 morphology data sets with minimal human intervention. Domain spacings were extracted through complementary imageprocessing methods and used to train ML models. A support vector regression (SVR) model accurately predicted target phase-separation sizes (50, 100, and 150 nm), which were experimentally validated. This work demonstrates the power of coupling high-throughput experimentation with ML to accelerate morphology discovery and provides one of the first large-scale experimental data sets for supramolecular polymer systems.

ML-guided polymer design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Approaches for Bead Geometry Prediction Via Melt Pool Monitoring

In the realm of additive manufacturing, the selection of process parameters to avoid over and under deposition entails a time-consuming and resource-intensive trial-and-error approach. Given the distinct characteristics of each part geometry, there is a pressing need for advancing real-time process monitoring and control to ensure consistent and reliable part dimensional accuracy. Here, this research shows that support vector regression (SVR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models offer a promising solution for real-time process control due to the models’ abilities to recognize complex, non-linear patterns with high accuracy. A novel experiment was designed to compare the performance of SVR and CNN models to indirectly detect bead height from a coaxial image of a melt pool from a single-layer, single bead build. The study showed that both SVR and CNN models trained on melt pool data collected from a coaxial optical camera can accurately predict the bead height with a mean absolute percentage error of 3.67% and 3.68%, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Waveform Quality Control for Surface Waves Using Machine Learning

Surface-wave seismograms are widely used by researchers to study Earth’s interior and earthquakes. To extract information reliably and robustly from a suite of surface waveforms, the signals require quality control screening to reduce artifacts from signal complexity and noise. This process has usually been completed by human experts labeling each waveform visually, which is time consuming and tedious for large data sets. We explore automated approaches to improve the efficiency of waveform quality control processing by investigating logistic regression, support vector machines, K-nearest neighbors, random forests (RF), and artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithms. To speed up signal quality assessment, we trained these five machine learning (ML) methods using nearly 400,000 human-labeled waveforms. The ANN and RF models outperformed other algorithms and achieved a test accuracy of 92%. We evaluated these two best-performing models using seismic events from geographic regions not used for training. The results show that the two trained models agree with labels from human analysts but required only 0.4% of the time. Although the original (human) quality assignments assessed general waveform signal-to-noise, the ANN or RF labels can help facilitate detailed waveform analysis. Our investigations demonstrate the capability of the automated processing using these two ML models to reduce outliers in surface-wave-related measurements without human quality control screening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Machine Learning for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali–Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali–silica reaction (ASR) is a type of material degradation in concrete structures that leads to concrete cracking and rebar corrosion, thereby reducing the material’s structural integrity and the overall structure’s lifetime and raising safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) has been proven to be a valuable technique for assessing concrete properties and monitoring ASR progression in concrete. However, the deployment and analysis of ultrasonic NDE and its data requires specialized expertise, often relying on the engineer’s subjective interpretation. With the surge in computational power, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms have become popular in automating NDE data analysis. Various industrial sectors are increasingly adopting ML algorithms for NDE data analysis with a growing emphasis on AI–assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are also preparing for this technological shift, anticipating corresponding revisions in standards. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify the capabilities and limitations of current ML technologies for the evaluation of concrete material properties and damage status. Furthermore, the effects of various factors on ML model performance must be thoroughly investigated. The study summarized herein evaluated the effectiveness of two ML models (i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and deep neural network (DNN)) in predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR based on the long-term ultrasonic monitoring data. Four distinct concrete specimens were cast with artificially induced ASR, and over a period exceeding 500 days, ultrasonic signals and expansion data were continuously collected. For the SVR model, wave velocity and 12 other wave features were extracted from the ultrasonic signals, with 6 out of 13 features selected as input for the model. Different combinations of training and testing datasets were designed to explore factors influencing prediction performance, including the range of data within training and testing sets, in addition to various signal preprocessing methodologies. These findings suggest the importance of using a training dataset with a broader data range compared with testing datasets for improved model performance alongside consistent signal preprocessing across datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projecting the Thermal Response in a HTGR-Type System during Conduction Cooldown Using Graph-Laplacian Based Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of an off-normal event in a nuclear reactor is dependent upon the availability of sensory data, reactor core physical condition, and understanding of the underlying phenomenon. This work presents a method to project the data from some discrete sensory locations to the overall reactor domain during conduction cooldown scenarios similar to High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The existing models for conductive cooldown in a heterogeneous multi-body system, such as an assembly of prismatic blocks or pebble beds relies on knowledge of the thermal contact conductance, requiring significant knowledge of local thermal contacts and heat transport possibilities across those contacts. With a priori knowledge of bulk geometry features and some discrete sensors, a machine learning approach was devised. The presented work uses an experimental facility to mimic conduction cooldown with an assembly of 68 cylindrical rods initially heated to 1200 K. High-fidelity temperature data were collected using an infrared (IR) camera to provide training data to the model and validate the predicted temperature data. The machine learning approach used here first converts the macroscopic bulk geometry information into Graph-Laplacian, and then uses the eigenvectors of the Graph-Laplacian to develop Kernel functions. Support vector regression (SVR) was implemented on the obtained Kernels and used to predict the thermal response in a packed rod assembly during a conduction cooldown experiment. The usage of SVR modeling differs from most models today because of its representation of thermal coupling between rods in the core. When trained with thermographic data, the average normalized error is less than 2% over 400 s, during which temperatures of the assembly have dropped by more than 500 K. The rod temperature prediction performance was significantly better for rods in the interior of the assembly compared to those near the exterior, likely due to the model simplification of the surroundings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor↗