Microgravity Investigation of Supercooled Fragile Liquid Metal Oxides
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The increase of climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) compared to CMIP5 ESMs is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud response to climate change, referred to as cloud feedback. The ratio of supercooled liquid cloud water relative to all cloud water, termed liquid phase ratio (LPR), which has also notably increased in many recent ESMs, is thought to be a primary driver of the extratropical cloud feedback increase. Unlike the preponderance of previous studies that compare native model LPR directly with observations, here we evaluate LPR over three ESM generations against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) using an instrument simulator approach, which mimics instrument limitations and uses consistent cloud definitions and resolutions. We find that current coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) ESMs collectively simulate greater LPR than previous CMIP generations and overestimate LPR compared to observations, contrary to previous findings, likely driven by past inconsistent comparisons of ESM outputs with CALIPSO observations. We further show that greater LPR in ESM present-day climate is unexpectedly correlated with a smaller extratropical cloud feedback, attributable to a decrease of cloud amount exceeding the increase of cloud optical depth. Finally, our results suggest that improving constraints on model LPR using our evaluation framework would likely reduce the spread in CMIP6 climate sensitivities, owing to its effect on extratropical cloud feedback from supercooled clouds.
Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.
Studies of electrostatically-levitated supercooled liquids have demonstrated strong short- and medium-range ordering in transition metal and alloy liquids, which can influence phase transitions like crystal nucleation and the glass transition. The structure is also related to the liquid properties. Planned ISS experiments will allow a deeper investigation of these results as well as the first investigations of a new type of coupling in crystal nucleation in primary crystallizing liquids, resulting from a linking of the stochastic processes of diffusion with interfacial-attachment. A brief description of the techniques used for ground-based studies and some results relevant to planned ISS investigations are discussed.
The process of supercooled liquid water crystallization into ice is still not well understood. Current experimental data on homogeneous freezing rates of ice nucleation in supercooled water droplets show considerable scatter. For example, at -33 C, the reported freezing nucleation rates vary by as much as 5 orders of magnitude, which is well outside the range of measurement uncertainties. Until now, experimental data on the freezing of supercooled water has been analyzed under the assumption that nucleation of ice took place in the interior volume of a water droplet. Here, the same data is reanalyzed assuming that the nucleation occurred "pseudoheterogeneously" at the air (or oil)-liquid water interface of the droplet. Our analysis suggest that the scatter in the nucleation data can be explained by two main factors. First, the current assumption that nucleation occurs solely inside the volume of a water droplet is incorrect. Second, because the nucleation process most likely occurs on the surface, the rates of nuclei formation could differ vastly when oil or air interfaces are involved. Our results suggest that ice freezing in clouds may initiate on droplet surfaces and such a process can allow for low amounts of liquid water (approx. 0.002 g per cubic meters) to remain supercooled down to -40 C as observed in the atmosphere.
The NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS) has been under definition and development at NASA Glenn Research Center since 1997. The goal of this development activity is to produce and demonstrate the required sensing and data processing technologies required to accurately remotely detect and measure icing conditions aloft. As part of that effort NASA has teamed with NCAR to develop software to fuse data from multiple instruments into a single detected icing condition product. The multiple instrument approach utilizes a X-band vertical staring radar, a multifrequency microwave, and a lidar ceilometer. The radar data determine cloud boundaries, the radiometer determines the sub-freezing temperature heights and total liquid water content, and the ceilometer refines the lower cloud boundary. Data is post-processed with a LabVIEW program with a resultant supercooled liquid water profile and aircraft hazard depiction. Ground-based, remotely-sensed measurements and in-situ measurements from research aircraft were gathered during the international 2003-2004 Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS II). Comparisons between the remote sensing system s fused icing product and the aircraft measurements are reviewed here. While there are areas where improvement can be made, the cases examined suggest that the fused sensor remote sensing technique appears to be a valid approach.
Experimental data on ice nucleation, presented in an earlier paper, are analyzed to yield information about the homogeneous nucleation rate of ice from supercooled liquid and the heights of energy barriers to that nucleation. The experiment consisted of using an expansion cloud chamber to nucleate from the vapor a cloud of supercooled pure water drops and the observation of the fraction of drops which subsequently froze. The analysis employed standard classical homogeneous nucleation theory. The data are used to extract the first experimental measurement (albeit indirect) of the activation energy for the transfer of a water molecule across the liquid-ice interface at temperatures near -40 C. The results provide further evidence that the local liquid structure becomes more icelike as the temperature is lowered.
Cloud top phase (CTP) impacts cloud albedo and pathways for ice particle nucleation, growth, and fallout within extratropical cyclones. This study uses airborne lidar, radar, and Rapid Refresh analysis data to characterize CTP within extratropical cyclones as a function of cloud top temperature (CTT). During the 2020, 2022, and 2023 Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign deployments, the Earth-Resources 2 (ER-2) aircraft flew 26 research flights over the Northeast and Midwest U.S. to sample the cloud tops of a variety of extratropical cyclones. A training dataset was developed to create probabilistic phase classifications based on Cloud Physics Lidar measurements of known ice and liquid clouds. These classifications were then used to quantify dominant CTP in the top 150 m of clouds sampled by the Cloud Physics Lidar in storms during IMPACTS. Case studies are presented illustrating examples of supercooled liquid water at cloud top at different CTT ranges (-3°C -20°C. Liquid-bearing cloud tops were found at CTTs as cold as -37ºC.
Bond-orientational order in liquid Si via Monte Carlo simulation in conjuncation with empirical two- and three-body potentials of the form proposed by Stillinger and Weber are studied. Bond-orientational order (BOO) is described in terms of combinations of spherical harmonic functions. Liquid Si is found to have pronounced short-range BOO corresponding to l = 3, as expected for a structure with local tetrahedral order. No long-range BOO is found either in the equilibrium or the supercooled liquid. When the three-body potential is artificially removed, the tetrahedral bond-orientation order disappears and the liquid assumes a close-packed structure.
To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase (K(sub DP)) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of KDP and radar differential reflectivity (Z(sub DR)) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K(sub DP) and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ∼ 150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.
The motion of the freezing front between a needle-shaped crystal and a supercooled liquid is analyzed for situations where there is forced convection aligned with the crystal axis. It is shown that in the absence of capillary effects the shape of the crystal-melt interface is a paraboloid of revolution, similar to that found in situations where diffusion is the sole heat-transfer mechanism. A relation between the supercooling, the product of tip velocity and tip radius, and the strength of the flow is derived which reduces to the well-known Ivantsov theory in the absence of convection.
A method to distinguish cloud thermodynamic phase from polarized Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL) measurements is described. The method employs a simple enumerative approach to classify cloud layers as either liquid water, ice water, or mixed-phase clouds based on the linear volume depolarization ratio and cloud top temperatures derived from Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) assimilated data. Two years of cloud retrievals from the Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) site in Greenbelt, MD are used to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. The fraction of supercooled liquid water in the mixed-phase temperature regime (-37 °C – 0 °C) calculated using MPLNET data is compared to similar calculations made using the spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on board the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, with reasonable consistency.
The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.
The motion of the freezing front between a dendritic crystal and a supercooled liquid is studied using an interface evolution equation derived from a boundary integral transformation of the transient convective-diffusion equation. A new steady-state theory is introduced that incorporates the effects of convection in dendritic growth. It is shown that in the absence of capillary effects the shape of the crystal-melt interface is a paraboloid of revolution, similar to that found in situations where diffusion is the sole heat transfer mechanism. A relation between the supercooling, the product of the tip velocity and tip radius, and the strength of the flow is derived which reduces to the well-known Ivantsov theory in the absence of convection. A non-linear interface-tracking algorithm is developed and used to study the temporal and spatial evolution of the dendritic interface. The important role of capillarity and convection on the interface dynamics is established and the response of the interface to finite amplitude disturbances is examined for the first time. Tip splitting is identified as the dominant destabilization mechanism in the limit of zero surface tension. Finite surface tension leads to interface stabilization, irrespective of the magnitude and structure of the external perturbations. Finally, convection significantly decreases the magnitude of the freezing velocity.
The Ivantsov (1947) analysis of an isolated isothermal dendrite (with zero surface tension) growing into a supercooled liquid is extended to include the effects of the fluid flow due to volume contraction or expansion upon solidification. For an axisymmetric paraboloidal dendrite, an analytic solution to the Navier-Stokes equations is obtained. The magnitude of the flow is proportional to the relative density change epsilon, and the flow becomes negligible far from the surface of the dendrite. The temperature field consistent with this flow can also be found explicitly. The well-known expression that relates the dimensionless supercooling to the Peclet number in the absence of fluid flow is modified for nonzero epsilon, but the effect is of order epsilon and hence is seen to be minor for most values of epsilon and dimensionless supercooling that occur in practice.
We have collected an extensive polarization lidar dataset from elevated sites in the Tushar Mountains of Utah in support of winter storm cloud seeding research and experiments. Our truck-mounted ruby lidar collected zenith, dual-polarization lidar data through a roof window equipped with a wiper system to prevent snowfall accumulation. Lidar returns were collected at a rate of one shot every 1 to 5 min during declared storm periods over the 1985 and 1987 mid-Jan. to mid-Mar. Field seasons. The mid-barrier remote sensor field site was located at 2.57 km MSL. Of chief interest to weather modification efforts are the heights of supercooled liquid water (SLW) clouds, which must be known to assess their 'seedability' (i.e., temperature and height suitability for artificially increasing snowfall). We are currently re-examining out entire dataset to determine the climatological properties of SLW clouds in winter storms using an autonomous computer algorithm.