Monitoring Subsurface Fracture Flow Using Unsupervised Deep Learning of Borehole Microseismic Waveform Data
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Duan, Chenglong↗
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Overland flow numerical model prediction, Lower Triangle Region in East River Watershed, Colorado, 3 days
This data package contains numerical simulation results of surface flow variables such as flow velocity and water depth in Lower Triangle Region in East River Watershed, Colorado. The surface flow is a consequence of a high intensity rainfall event with a total duration of 3 days, available at a resolution of 10 minutes. The results are computed on triangular multiresolution meshes with resolutions ranging from 10 meter to 80 meter. The data package also contains a simulation on a uniform triangular mesh with a resolution of 10 meter. The simulations consider surface flow only and neglect subsurface flow, infiltration, and evapotranspiration. The purpose of the data is to assess the quality of a mesh refinement strategy.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Preferential flow in subsurface hydrology: From a century of denial to a decade of addressing it via ML?
This white paper highlights the potential of using machine learning (ML) to gain new insights from large, high-frequency Earth science observatory network datasets (focal area 3) and better represent complex subsurface processes via ML in Earth System Models (ESMs, focal area 2).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD v1.0): numerical modeling of watershed hydrology with the finite volume method
Abstract. Hydrologic modeling is an essential strategy for understanding and predicting natural flows, particularly where observations are lacking in either space or time or where complex terrain leads to a disconnect in the characteristic time and space scales of overland and groundwater flow. However, significant difficulties remain for the development of efficient and extensible modeling systems that operate robustly across complex regions. This paper introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), an integrated, multiprocess, multiscale, flexible-time-step model, in which hydrologic processes are fully coupled using the finite volume method. SHUD integrates overland flow, snow accumulation/melt, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, groundwater flow, and river routing, thus allowing physical processes in general watersheds to be realistically captured. SHUD incorporates one-dimensional unsaturated flow, two-dimensional groundwater flow, and a fully connected river channel network with hillslopes supporting overland flow and baseflow. The paper introduces the design of SHUD, from the conceptual and mathematical description of hydrologic processes in a watershed to the model's computational structures. To demonstrate and validate the model performance, we employ three hydrologic experiments: the V-catchment experiment, Vauclin's experiment, and a model study of the Cache Creek Watershed in northern California. Ongoing applications of the SHUD model include hydrologic analyses of hillslope to regional scales (1 m2 to 106 km2), water resource and stormwater management, and interdisciplinary research for questions in limnology, agriculture, geochemistry, geomorphology, water quality, ecology, climate and land-use change. The strength of SHUD is its flexibility as a scientific and resource evaluation tool where modeling and simulation are required.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms
Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses
Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
HdsaLib
HdsaLib performs hyper-differential sensitivity analysis in optimization problems that are constrained by partial differential equation problems. The software aids researchers in understanding the impact of uncertainties on their optimization models. The tool has been applied for use in ice sheet modeling, fluid flow modeling, atmospheric tracer transport modeling, and subsurface flow modeling. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
van Bloemen Waanders, Bart [Sandia National Lab. (↗
Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period
Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
WellPINN: Accurate Well Representation for Transient Fluid Pressure Diffusion in Subsurface Reservoirs With Physics‐Informed Neural Networks
Accurate representation of pumping wells is essential for reliable reservoir characterization and simulation of operational scenarios in subsurface flow models. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as a promising alternative to numerical models for reservoir modeling, offering seamless integration of monitoring data and governing physical equations. However, existing PINN-based studies face major challenges in capturing fluid pressure near wells when using a source/sink term, particularly during the early stages after pumping begins. We address this problem by introducing WellPINN, a workflow in which an initially trained PINN infers fluid pressure across the entire reservoir domain using a large equivalent well radius. This initial PINN solution is then locally refined around the well by a set of subdomain PINNs that are trained for smaller equivalent well radii. Continuity across these subdomain interfaces as well as at the initial condition is ensured by hard-constraining each PINN on its subdomain boundary. Our results demonstrate WellPINN as the first workflow of its kind to focus on accurate inference of fluid pressure from pumping rates throughout the entire injection period, significantly advancing the potential of PINNs for inverse modeling and operational scenario simulations. All data and code for this paper are openly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/DIGITALCSIC/17260.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Bed form-induced hyporheic exchange and geochemical hotspots
Small-scale bed form topographies control hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical processes within aquatic sediments, which ultimately affect water quality and nutrient cycling at the watershed scale. The impact of three-dimensional and small-scale bed form topographies on hyporheic exchange and solute mixing is investigated in the present work. The effect of bed form morphologies on the development of zones of enhanced reaction rates (i.e., hotspots) is also studied. A computational fluid dynamics model to simulate river flow over bed forms is combined with a subsurface flow and multicomponent reactive solute transport model. A wide variety of bed form topographies are generated using geometric models by varying parameters controlling curvature as well as bed form wavelength and amplitude. The results in this research suggest that out-of-phase bed forms generate more complex hyporheic flow patterns which reduce the efficiency of solute transformations. Higher phase shifts in bed form shapes result in overall higher average velocity, larger zones of enhanced pressure and reaction rates, and higher amounts of solute exchange. Moreover, the bed form shapes control the reaction process for a wide range of sediment conductivities. Here this study advances the understanding of the effects of complex and small scale morphological features on hyporheic exchange processes including the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of reaction hotspots.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons
Abstract. A significant portion of the Arctic coastal plain is classified as polygonal tundra and plays a vital role in soil carbon cycling. Recent research suggests that lateral transport of dissolved carbon could exceed vertical carbon releases to the atmosphere. However, the details of lateral subsurface flow in polygonal tundra have not been well studied. We incorporated a subsurface transport process into an existing state-of-the-art hydrothermal model. The model captures the physical effects of freeze–thaw cycles on lateral flow in polygonal tundra. The new modeling capability enables non-reactive tracer movement within subsurface. We utilized this new capability to investigate the impact of freeze–thaw cycles on lateral flow in the polygonal tundra. Our study indicates the important role of freeze–thaw cycles and the freeze-up effect in lateral tracer transport, suggesting that dissolved species could be transported from the middle of the polygon to the sides within a couple of thaw seasons. Introducing lateral carbon transport into the climate models could substantially reduce the uncertainty associated with the impact of thawing permafrost.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of accuracy and convergence of numerical coupling approaches for poroelasticity benchmark problems
Accurate modeling of subsurface flow and transport processes is vital as the prevalence of subsurface activities such as carbon sequestration, geothermal recovery, and nuclear waste disposal increases. Computational modeling of these problems leverages poroelasticity theory, which describes coupled fluid flow and mechanical deformation. Although fully coupled monolithic schemes are accurate for coupled problems, they can demand significant computational resources for large problems. In this work, a fixed stress scheme is implemented into the Sandia Sierra Multiphysics toolkit. Two implementation methods, along with the fully coupled method, are verified with one-dimensional (1D) Terzaghi, 2D Mandel, and 3D Cryer sphere benchmark problems. The impact of a range of material parameters and convergence tolerances on numerical accuracy and efficiency was evaluated. Overall the fixed stress schemes achieved acceptable numerical accuracy and efficiency compared to the fully coupled scheme. However, the accuracy of the fixed stress scheme tends to decrease with low permeable cases, requiring the finer tolerance to achieve a desired numerical accuracy. For the fully coupled scheme, high numerical accuracy was observed in most of cases except a low permeability case where an order of magnitude finer tolerance was required for accurate results. Finally, a two-layer Terzaghi problem and an injection–production well system were used to demonstrate the applicability of findings from the benchmark problems for more realistic conditions over a range of permeability. Simulation results suggest that the fixed stress scheme provides accurate solutions for all cases considered with the proper adjustment of the tolerance. Furthermore, this work clearly demonstrates the robustness of the fixed stress scheme for coupled poroelastic problems, while a cautious selection of numerical tolerance may be required under certain conditions with low permeable materials.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks
Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
Abstract. Safe and secure carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in activity associated with reservoir characterization and site selection for large-scale CO2 storage projects across the globe. These prospective storage sites tend to be selected for their optimal structural, petrophysical, and geochemical trapping potential. However, it has also been suggested that storing CO2 in reservoirs within the CO2 hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), characterized by high pressures and low temperatures (e.g., Arctic or marine environments), could provide a natural thermodynamic barrier to gas leakage. Evaluating the prospect of commercial-scale, long-term storage of CO2 in the GHSZ requires reservoir-scale modeling capabilities designed to account for the unique physics and thermodynamics associated with these systems. We have developed the HYDRATE flow mode and the accompanying fully implicit parallel well model in the massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model CO2 injection into the marine GHSZ. We have applied these capabilities to a set of CO2 injection scenarios designed to reveal the challenges and opportunities for commercial-scale CO2 storage in the GHSZ.
carbon storage↗
Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures
Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.
Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗
A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling
Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies
Chen, Hang↗
The Role of Topography in Controlling Evapotranspiration Age
Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) age is a key metric of water sustainability but a major unknown partly due to the extreme difficulty in modeling it. Groundwater is found to be important in ET age variations in small‐scale studies, yet our understanding is insufficient because groundwater systems are nested across scales. Here, we conducted GPU‐accelerated particle tracking with integrated hydrologic modeling to quantify the variations in ET age at a regional scale of ∼0.4 M km 2 . Simulation results reveal topography‐driven flow paths shaping the spatial and temporal patterns of ET age variations. On ridges, where root zone decoupling with deep subsurface storage, ET age is generally young, with seasonal variations dominated by meteorological conditions. In the valley bottom, ET age is generally old, with significant subseasonal variations caused by the convergence of subsurface flow paths. On hillslopes with water table depths ranging from 1 to 10 m, ET age shows strong seasonal variations caused by the connections with lateral groundwater regulated by ET demand. Our modeling approach provides insights into the basic linkages between ET age and topography at large scale. Our work highlights the perspective of multiscale studies of ET age, suggesting new field experiments to test these process connections and to determine if such linkages warrant inclusion in Earth System Models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Contributions of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities to solute retention and anomalous transport features in porous media
We report that microbial biofilms are ubiquitous within porous media and the dynamics of their growth influence surface and subsurface flow patterns which impacts the physical properties of porous media and large-scale transport of solutes. Here, a two-dimensional pore-scale numerical model was used to evaluate the impact of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities on conservative transport. Our study integrates experimental biofilm images of Paenibacillus 300A strain in a microfluidic device packed with cylindrical grains in a hexagonal distribution, with mathematical modeling. Biofilm is represented as a synthetic porous structure with locally varying physical properties that honors the impact of biofilm on the porous medium. We find that biofilm plays a major role in shaping the observed conservative transport dynamics by enhancing anomalous characteristics. More specifically, when biofilm is present, the pore structure in our geometry becomes more spatially correlated. We observe intermittent behavior in the Lagrangian velocities that switches between fast transport periods and long trapping events. Our results suggest that intermittency enhances solute spreading in breakthrough curves which exhibit extreme anomalous slope at intermediate times and very marked late solute arrival due to solute retention. The efficiency of solute retention by the biofilm is controlled by a transport regime which can extend the tailing in the concentration breakthrough curves. These results indicate that solute retention by the biofilm exerts a strong control on conservative solute transport at pore-scale, a role that to date has not received enough attention.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗