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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Atomistic structural ensemble refinement reveals non-native structure stabilizes a sub-millisecond folding intermediate of CheY

The dynamics of globular proteins can be described in terms of transitions between a folded native state and less-populated intermediates, or excited states, which can play critical roles in both protein folding and function. Excited states are by definition transient species, and therefore are difficult to characterize using current experimental techniques. We report an atomistic model of the excited state ensemble of a stabilized mutant of an extensively studied flavodoxin fold protein CheY. We employed a hybrid simulation and experimental approach in which an aggregate 42 milliseconds of all-atom molecular dynamics were used as an informative prior for the structure of the excited state ensemble. The resulting prior was then refined against small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data employing an established method (EROS). The most striking feature of the resulting excited state ensemble was an unstructured N-terminus stabilized by non-native contacts in a conformation that is topologically simpler than the native state. We then predict incisive single molecule FRET experiments, using these results, as a means of model validation. Our study demonstrates the paradigm of uniting simulation and experiment in a statistical model to study the structure of protein excited states and rationally design validating experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

QP Statistics Spotlight: Practical versus Statistical Priorities

Randomization during data collection in a designed experiment is an effective strategy for reducing system bias and ensuring independent observations1, but at what cost should it be fully implemented? We recently encountered a scenario that highlights an important aspect of collaboration2 between statisticians, scientists and engineers – the idea of compromise for the sake of achieving wins for all team members. In a multi-million-dollar experiment with a fixed amount of time on the test equipment, each experimental run involved resetting the input values and then waiting for the continuous process to reach a new equilibrium. For example, the temperature of the furnace could be reset, but it takes some time for the test chamber to reach the new temperature and rest at that temperature for a while until all components in the chamber settle at that new setting. Similarly, a critical gas flow component also required a settling period before data could be collected that would be representative of that input setting value. In all, the experiment involved 5 factors, where 4 of the 5 were time-consuming and costly to adjust, with the duration of time needed to reach new equilibrium being dependent on how far the previous setting was from the new one for the combination of these 4 factors. For example, changing from 150° to 200° would reach equilibrium faster than changing from 100° to 200°.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nanofiber-Based Total Internal Reflection Microscopy for Characterizing Colloidal Systems at the Microscale

Bulk colloidal interactions are dictated by the physical properties of individual particles dispersed in solution. However, for many applications it remains challenging to predict system-level colloidal behavior. Comprehensive characterization typically requires disparate techniques that can observe correlations between microscale particle–surface interactions and physical properties of the particles. In this work, we present a unique tin dioxide (SnO2) nanofiber-based total internal reflection microscopy (TIRM) method to efficiently characterize colloidal behavior as a function of particle-level properties in complex fluidic conditions. We develop and model the device physics to understand the physical underpinnings of the raw device data and then use these models to design proof-of-concept experiments to verify device function. Statistical trends in the data collected from a nominal system of 80 nm gold nanoparticles correspond to theoretical predictions as we vary key design parameters such as particle size, surface charge, and solution ionic strength. Lastly, we consider the practical limitations of the technique gleaned from our studies and offer suggestions for utilizing the platform to quantitatively analyze nonideal colloidal systems with distributed or heterogeneous system parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Membrane Thickness Impact on Chemical Degradation Rates

Abstract A comprehensive investigation of PFSA membrane chemical degradation rates as a function of thickness (8-20 µm) is reported. The two-pronged study was conducted on bare membranes and as components of chemically-mitigated and mechanically-reinforced, state-of-the-art (SOA) membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). The bare membranes were subjected to H2O2 vapor test and MEAs were degraded under OCV conditions, both at 90°C. Both test types employed fluoride release rates (FRR) to monitor chemical degradation rates. Vapor tests revealed that area-specific degradation rates were positively correlated with membrane thickness, but thickness normalized degradation rates were independent of thickness. Open-circuit voltage (OCV) investigations spanning the membrane thickness series of MEAs was probed via a 27-experiment 3(4-1) fractional factorial experimental design. Statistical analysis of the FRR values revealed that chemical degradation rates were dominated by the relative humidity value and that the area-specific degradation rates of MEAs were independent of membrane thickness. The OCV chemical durability insensitivity to membrane thickness is supported by on-load membrane chemical durability studies at the stack level. The results suggest that ,despite smaller ionomer inventory, SOA thin membranes and MEAs are not greatly disadvantaged relative to thicker membranes from a chemical durability perspective, provided oxidative stress levels are controlled throughout application lifetime.

Coms, Frank D. (ORCID:0000000249160350)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inverse design of a pyrochlore lattice of DNA origami through model-driven experiments

Sophisticated statistical mechanics approaches and human intuition have demonstrated the possibility of self-assembling complex lattices or finite-size constructs. However, attempts so far have mostly only been successful in silico and often fail in experiment because of unpredicted traps associated with kinetic slowing down (gelation, glass transition) and competing ordered structures. Theoretical predictions also face the difficulty of encoding the desired interparticle interaction potential with the experimentally available nano- and micrometer-sized particles. To overcome these issues, we combine SAT assembly (a patchy-particle interaction design algorithm based on constrained optimization) with coarse-grained simulations of DNA nanotechnology to experimentally realize trap-free self-assembly pathways. In this paper, we use this approach to assemble a pyrochlore three-dimensional lattice, coveted for its promise in the construction of optical metamaterials, and characterize it with small-angle x-ray scattering and scanning electron microscopy visualization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Virtual Model Validation of Complex Multiscale Systems: Applications to Nonlinear Elastostatics

We propose a virtual statistical validation process as an aid to the design of experiments for the validation of phenomenological models of the behavior of material bodies, with focus on those cases in which knowledge of the fabrication process used to manufacture the body can provide information on the micro-molecular-scale properties underlying macroscale behavior. One example is given by models of elastomeric solids fabricated using polymerization processes. We describe a framework for model validation that involves Bayesian updates of parameters in statistical calibration and validation phases. The process enables the quanti cation of uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) and the determination of model consistency using tools of statistical information theory. We assert that microscale information drawn from molecular models of the fabrication of the body provides a valuable source of prior information on parameters as well as a means for estimating model bias and designing virtual validation experiments to provide information gain over calibration posteriors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Error Analysis And Propagation In Metabolomics Data Aanalysis

Error analysis plays a fundamental role in describing the uncertainty in experimental results. It has several fundamental uses in metabolomics including experimental design, quality control of experiments, the selection of appropriate statistical methods, and the determination of uncertainty in results. Furthermore, the importance of error analysis has grown with the increasing number, complexity, and heterogeneity of measurements characteristic of ‘omics research. The increase in data complexity is particularly problematic for metabolomics, which has more heterogeneity than other omics technologies due to the much wider range of molecular entities detected and measured. This review introduces the fundamental concepts of error analysis as they apply to a wide range of metabolomics experimental designs and it discusses current methodologies for determining the propagation of uncertainty in appropriate metabolomics data analysis. These methodologies include analytical derivation and approximation techniques, Monte Carlo error analysis, and error analysis in metabolic inverse problems. Current limitations of each methodology with respect to metabolomics data analysis are also discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tripled yield in direct-drive laser fusion through statistical modelling [Tripling the yield in direct-drive laser fusion via predictive statistical modeling]

Focusing laser light onto a very small target can produce the conditions for laboratory-scale nuclear fusion of hydrogen isotopes. The lack of accurate predictive models, which are essential for the design of high-performance laser-fusion experiments, is a major obstacle to achieving thermonuclear ignition. Here we report a statistical approach that was used to design and quantitatively predict the results of implosions of solid deuterium–tritium targets carried out with the 30-kilojoule OMEGA laser system, leading to tripling of the fusion yield to its highest value so far for direct-drive laser fusion. When scaled to the laser energies of the National Ignition Facility (1.9 megajoules), these targets are predicted to produce a fusion energy output of about 500 kilojoules—several times larger than the fusion yields currently achieved at that facility. As a result, this approach could guide the exploration of the vast parameter space of thermonuclear ignition conditions and enhance our understanding of laser-fusion physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Design of Experiments, Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

This presentation provides an overview of emulation, calibration and experiment design for computer experiments. Emulation refers to building a statistical surrogate from a carefully selected and limited set of model runs to predict unsampled outputs. The standard kriging approach to emulation of complex computer models is presented. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used to sample the calibrated parameter distribution. Several MCMC algorithms commonly employed in practice are presented, along with a popular diagnostic for evaluating chain behavior. Space-filling approaches to experiment design for selecting model runs to build effective emulators are discussed, including Latin Hypercube Design and extensions based on orthogonal array skeleton designs and imposed symmetry requirements. Optimization criteria that further enforce space-filling, possibly in projections of the input space, are mentioned. Designs to screen for important input variations are summarized and used for variable selection in a nuclear fuels performance application. This is followed by illustration of sequential experiment design strategies for optimization, global prediction, and rare event inference.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI ATAC 1: An Evaluation of Prominent Commercial Malware Detectors

This work presents an evaluation of six prominent commercial endpoint malware detectors, a network malware detector, and a file-conviction algorithm from a cyber technology vendor. The evaluation was administered as the first of the Artificial I ntelligence Applications t o Autonomous Cybersecurity (AI ATAC) prize challenges, funded by / completed in service of the US Navy. The experiment employed 100K files (50/50% benign/malicious) with a stratified distribution of file types, including ~1K zero-day program executables (increasing experiment size two orders of magnitude over previous work). We present an evaluation process of delivering a file to a fresh virtual machine donning the detection technology, waiting 90s to allow static detection, then executing the file and waiting another period for dynamic detection; this allows greater fidelity in the observational data than previous experiments, in particular, resource and time-to-detection statistics. To execute all 800K trials (100K files × 8 tools), a software framework is designed to choreograph the experiment into an automated, time-synced, and reproducible workflow with substantial parallelization. Software with base classes for this framework are provided. A cost-benefit model was configured to integrate the tools’ detection statistics into a comparable quantity by simulating costs of use. This provides a ranking methodology for cyber competitions and a lens for reasoning about the varied statistical results. The results provide insights on state of commercial malware detection.

Bridges, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2015

Instrument for precision long-term β-decay rate measurements

We describe an experimental setup for making precision measurements of relative β-decay rates of {sup 22}Na, {sup 36}Cl, {sup 54}Mn, {sup 60}Co, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 133}Ba, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 152}Eu, and {sup 154}Eu. The radioactive samples are mounted in two automated sample changers that sequentially position the samples with high spatial precision in front of sets of detectors. The set of detectors for one sample changer consists of four Geiger-Müller (GM) tubes and the other set of detectors consists of two NaI scintillators. The statistical uncertainty in the count rate is few times 0.01% per day for the GM detectors and about 0.01% per hour on the NaI detectors. The sample changers, detectors, and associated electronics are housed in a sealed chamber held at constant absolute pressure, humidity, and temperature to isolate the experiment from environmental variations. The apparatus is designed to accumulate statistics over many years in a regulated environment to test recent claims of small annual variations in the decay rates. We demonstrate that absent this environmental regulation, uncontrolled natural atmospheric pressure variations at our location would imprint an annual signal of 0.1% on the Geiger-Müller count rate. However, neither natural pressure variations nor plausible indoor room temperature variations cause a discernible influence on our NaI scintillator detector count rate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expert‐in‐the‐loop design of integral nuclear data experiments

Abstract Nuclear data are fundamental inputs to radiation transport codes used for reactor design and criticality safety. The design of experiments to reduce nuclear data uncertainty has been a challenge for many years, but advances in the sensitivity calculations of radiation transport codes within the last two decades have made optimal experimental design possible. The design of integral nuclear experiments poses numerous challenges not emphasized in classical optimal design, in particular, constrained design spaces (in both a statistical and engineering sense), severely under‐determined systems, and optimality uncertainty. We present a design pipeline to optimize critical experiments that uses constrained Bayesian optimization within an iterative expert‐in‐the‐loop framework. We show a successfully completed experiment campaign designed with this framework that involved two critical configurations and multiple measurements that targeted compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning plasma dynamics and robust rampdown trajectories with predict-first experiments at TCV

The rampdown phase of a tokamak pulse is difficult to simulate and often exacerbates multiple plasma instabilities. To reduce the risk of disrupting operations, we leverage advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) to combine physics with data-driven models, developing a neural state-space model (NSSM) that predicts plasma dynamics during Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV) rampdowns. The NSSM efficiently learns dynamics from a modest dataset of 311 pulses with only five pulses in a reactor-relevant high-performance regime. The NSSM is parallelized across uncertainties, and reinforcement learning (RL) is applied to design trajectories that avoid instability limits. High-performance experiments at TCV show statistically significant improvements in relevant metrics. A predict-first experiment, increasing plasma current by 20% from baseline, demonstrates the NSSM’s ability to make small extrapolations. The developed approach paves the way for designing tokamak controls with robustness to considerable uncertainty and demonstrates the relevance of SciML for fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven design of molecular nanomagnets

Three decades of research in molecular nanomagnets have raised their magnetic memories from liquid helium to liquid nitrogen temperature thanks to a wise choice of the magnetic ion and coordination environment. Still, serendipity and chemical intuition played a main role. In order to establish a powerful framework for statistically driven chemical design, here we collected chemical and physical data for lanthanide-based nanomagnets, catalogued over 1400 published experiments, developed an interactive dashboard (SIMDAVIS) to visualise the dataset, and applied inferential statistical analysis. Our analysis shows that the Arrhenius energy barrier correlates unexpectedly well with the magnetic memory. Furthermore, as both Orbach and Raman processes can be affected by vibronic coupling, chemical design of the coordination scheme may be used to reduce the relaxation rates. Indeed, only bis-phthalocyaninato sandwiches and metallocenes, with rigid ligands, consistently present magnetic memory up to high temperature. Analysing magnetostructural correlations, we offer promising strategies for improvement, in particular for the preparation of pentagonal bipyramids, where even softer complexes are protected against molecular vibrations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Initial Effects of NO x on Idodine and Methyl Iodine Loading of AgZ and Aerogels

This initial evaluation provides insight into the effect of NO on the adsorption of both I 2 and CH 3 I onto reduced silver-exchanged mordenite (Ag 0 Z). It was determined that adsorption of CH 3 I onto Ag 0 Z occurs at approximately 50% of the rate of I 2 adsorption onto Ag 0 Z, although total iodine capacities are comparable. Addition of 1% NO to the simulated off-gas stream results in very similar loading behaviors and iodine capacities for both iodine species. This is most likely an effect of CH 3 I oxidation to I 2 by NO prior to contact with the sorbent bed. Completion of tests including NO 2 in the simulated off-gas stream was delayed due to vendor NO 2 production schedules. A statistically designed test matrix is partially completed, and upon conclusion of the suggested experiments, the effects of temperature, NO, NO 2 , and water vapor on the sorption of CH 3 I and I 2 onto Ag 0 Z will be able to be statistically resolved. This work represents progress towards that aim.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced data analysis in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics

Bayesian analysis enables flexible and rigorous definition of statistical model assumptions with well-characterized propagation of uncertainties and resulting inferences for single-shot, repeated, or even cross-platform data. This approach has a strong history of application to a variety of problems in physical sciences ranging from inference of particle mass from multi-source high-energy particle data to analysis of black-hole characteristics from gravitational wave observations. The recent adoption of Bayesian statistics for analysis and design of high-energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments has provided invaluable gains in expert understanding and experiment performance. In this Review, we discuss the basic theory and practical application of the Bayesian statistics framework. We highlight a variety of studies from the HEDP and ICF literature, demonstrating the power of this technique. Due to the computational complexity of multi-physics models needed to analyze HEDP and ICF experiments, Bayesian inference is often not computationally tractable. Two sections are devoted to a review of statistical approximations, efficient inference algorithms, and data-driven methods, such as deep-learning and dimensionality reduction, which play a significant role in enabling use of the Bayesian framework. We provide additional discussion of various applications of Bayesian and machine learning methods that appear to be sparse in the HEDP and ICF literature constituting possible next steps for the community. We conclude by highlighting community needs, the resolution of which will improve trust in data-driven methods that have proven critical for accelerating the design and discovery cycle in many application areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗