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NASA NTRS2022

Multisensor Machine Learning to Retrieve High Spatiotemporal Resolution Land Surface Temperature

Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, long-lasting, and severe. While multiple satellite types provide data to monitor surface temperature, geostationary (GEO) sensors provide near-continuous, continental-scale observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of land surface temperature (LST) than intermittent observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, standard products from GEO satellites are available at coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions compared to the native sensor resolution. Using datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we leveraged co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to learn a data-driven mapping using a convolutional neural network. The resulting NASA Earth eXchange Artificial Intelligence LST (NEXAI-LST) achieved a mean absolute error of 1.73 K relative to the target LEO product and improves on both spatial and temporal resolution [2 km, 10 minute] compared to the GEO full disk standard product [10 km, hourly]. In validation against measurements from a ground-based sensor network, NEXAI-LST achieves similar or better fit than both LEO and GEO standard products, while depending none of the prior knowledge of land surface and atmospheric states required by physical-statistical models. Further, application of the model to unseen LEO and GEO satellites demonstrates robust generalization of the model across spatial region, time of day, and sensor. In support of NASA’s open-source science initiative, we make our NEXAI-LST product, model, and codes available to facilitate data exploration and further studies.

Kate Marie Duffy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Domain Routing in Delay Tolerant Networks

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to provide the missing ingredient for the ever-growing collection of communicating nodes in our solar system to become a Solar System Internet (SSI). Great strides have been made in modeling particular types of DTNs, such as schedule- or discovery-based. Now, analogously to the Internet, these smaller DTNs can be considered routing domains which must be stitched together to form the overall SSI. In this paper, we propose a framework for cross-domain routing in DTNs as well as methodologies for detecting these sub-domains. Example time-varying networks are given to demonstrate the techniques proposed. A basic component is the mathematical theory of sheaves, which unifies the underlying model of DTN routing algorithms, by giving rise to routing sheaves – these can be defined for the dynamic and scheduled networks as noted above, and can also be used to define the interfaces between these domains in order to route across them. An immediate application would be routing across discovery-based networks connected by scheduled networks. These DTN subdomains remain elusive, however, and need to become well-defined and properly sized for tractable computability. In particular, a balance must be determined between areas that are too large (i.e. large matrix computations) versus areas that are too small (i.e. “many” single-noded domains). Moreover, the connections between the domains should, at least locally, be chosen to optimize data flow and connectivity: we address this in three ways. First, tools from persistent homology are given to understand underlying structures, reminiscent of hierarchies in the Internet Protocol (IP) addressing. Second, we construct a notion of temporal graph curvature based on network geometry to analyze flows induced by dynamical processes on these networks. Finally, Schrodinger Bridges, a tool arising from statistical physics, are proposed as a method of constructing flows on time-evolving networks with desirable properties such as speed, robustness, and load sensitivity. We construct an approach to temporal hypergraphs to simultaneously model unicast, multicast, and broadcast, using the language of scheme theory, and then consider DTN network coding as a way to achieve network-level computation and organization. The paper concludes with a discussion and ideas for future work.

Alan Hylton↗
NASA NTRS1983

Effects of preprocessing Landsat MSS data on derived features

Important to the use of multitemporal Landsat MSS data for earth resources monitoring, such as agricultural inventories, is the ability to minimize the effects of varying atmospheric and satellite viewing conditions, while extracting physically meaningful features from the data. In general, the approaches to the preprocessing problem have been derived from either physical or statistical models. This paper compares three proposed algorithms; XSTAR haze correction, Color Normalization, and Multiple Acquisition Mean Level Adjustment. These techniques represent physical, statistical, and hybrid physical-statistical models, respectively. The comparisons are made in the context of three feature extraction techniques; the Tasseled Cap, the Cate Color Cube. and Normalized Difference.

Parris, T. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applicability of Loads Estimation Techniques Using Sparse Acceleration Sensor Data to Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring

The use of structural health monitoring systems on spacecraft structures can play a crucial role in ensuring the safety, reliability, and longevity of the structure by gathering and analyzing onboard sensor data. Of specific importance is monitoring for excessive loading at critical interfaces as any off-nominal structural excitations experienced by spacecraft structures can cause early unpredicted high structural life consumption or damage. The availability and cost of flight-certified sensors along with the size of spacecraft structures and allowable payload mass drives the need for a method to estimate loads using sparsely-located sensors. Numerous approaches such as physics-based, statistical learning, and physics-enhanced statistical learning algorithms have gained popularity among structural prognostics applications. However, developing noise-robust prediction models to assess loads and structural life predictions from a sparse multi-sensor data acquisition system can be a challenging task. This paper discusses the evaluation of physics-based versus machine-learning algorithms for predicting loads and structural life at mission critical locations on the spacecraft structure using a finite element loads analysis with the application of simulated noise and noise reduction techniques. To estimate the loads from accelerations, the physics-based algorithm leverages a loads transformation matrix from a Craig-Bampton reduced finite element model. A System Equivalent Reduction Expansion Process (SEREP) and a pseudo-inverse approach are considered to expand from the onboard sensor degrees of freedom to the Craig-Bampton model degrees of freedom. The machine learning algorithm provides a data driven solution/mapping of the sensor accelerations to the loads at the mission critical locations using a high dimensionality analysis. Although these strategies produce comparable loads prediction without noise, the limitations of these strategies with incorporating simulated noise and noise reduction techniques with low signal to noise ratio signals are evaluated. The study demonstrates the immense potential of statistical learning algorithms for sparse structural prognostic models and enhancing signal denoising techniques. These findings also highlight the need for noise-resilient prognostic models and low-noise data acquisition systems onboard spacecraft structures.

Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2001

DAO's Next Generation Physical-Space/Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System: Formulation and Initial Evaluation

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will describe the general system formulation, the adaptive quality control and general aspects of the error covariance modeling. The NASA-NCAR GCM is a completely new model which replaces the CEOs GCM used in the previous GEOS-1/2/3 Data Assimilation systems. A particular configuration of adaptive Statistical Quality Control and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) are currently implemented in DAO's operational Data Assimilation System. However, the unique finite-volume formulation of the NASA-NCAR GCM, combined with the generality of the observation-space formulation of PSAS, provides for a very simple and accurate model-analysis interface. The system assimilates a variety of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, TOVS Level 1B radiances are assimilated using a 1-D variational scheme, both in clear sky and cloudy conditions. Computationally, the fvDAS runs approximately 10 times faster than the operational GEOS-Terra system. We will show that the next-generation fvDAS has much improved observation-minus-6hr forecast (O-F) statistics, as well as 5-day forecast skills. Top of the atmosphere radiation fields are in closer agreement with CERES measurements, with realistic precipitation and moisture fields. We will also show that the finite-volume formulation of the fvDAS produce assimilated fields which are more suitable for driving constituent transport models.

daSilva, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Statistical temperature profile retrievals in clear-air using passive 118-GHz O2 observations

The clean-air temperature profile accuracy yielded by a localized linear statistical retrieval operator applied to passive aircraft-based 118-GHz spectra is demonstrated. A comparison of the statistically and physically derived correlation coefficients of antenna temperature and kinetic temperature furnishes a physical justification of the statistical retrieval technique. The atmospheric temperature mean and covariance significantly depend on such geophysical parameters as latitude, longitude, local season, and time, as well as the prevailing meteorological state and orographic effects.

Gasiewski, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Sensor data validation and reconstruction. Phase 1: System architecture study

The sensor validation and data reconstruction task reviewed relevant literature and selected applicable validation and reconstruction techniques for further study; analyzed the selected techniques and emphasized those which could be used for both validation and reconstruction; analyzed Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) hot fire test data to determine statistical and physical relationships between various parameters; developed statistical and empirical correlations between parameters to perform validation and reconstruction tasks, using a computer aided engineering (CAE) package; and conceptually designed an expert system based knowledge fusion tool, which allows the user to relate diverse types of information when validating sensor data. The host hardware for the system is intended to be a Sun SPARCstation, but could be any RISC workstation with a UNIX operating system and a windowing/graphics system such as Motif or Dataviews. The information fusion tool is intended to be developed using the NEXPERT Object expert system shell, and the C programming language.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Radar Derived Spatial Statistics of Summer Rain: Data Reduction and Analysis - Volume 2

Data reduction and analysis procedures are discussed along with the physical and statistical descriptors used. The statistical modeling techniques are outlined and examples of the derived statistical characterization of rain cells in terms of the several physical descriptors are presented. Recommendations concerning analyses which can be pursued using the data base collected during the experiment are included.

Konrad, T. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Physical Retrievals of Over-Ocean Rain Rate from Multichannel Microwave Imagery: Theoretical Characteristics of Normalized Polarization and Scattering Indices - Part 1

Microwave rain rate retrieval algorithms have most often been formulated in terms of the raw brightness temperatures observed by one or more channels of a satellite radiometer. Taken individually, single-channel brightness temperatures generally represent a near-arbitrary combination of positive contributions due to liquid water emission and negative contributions due to scattering by ice and/or visibility of the radiometrically cold ocean surface. Unfortunately, for a given rain rate, emission by liquid water below the freezing level and scattering by ice particles above the freezing level are rather loosely coupled in both a physical and statistical sense. Furthermore, microwave brightness temperatures may vary significantly (approx. 30-70 K) in response to geophysical parameters other than liquid water and precipitation. Because of these complications, physical algorithms which attempt to directly invert observed brightness temperatures have typically relied on the iterative adjustment of detailed micro-physical profiles or cloud models, guided by explicit forward microwave radiative transfer calculations. In support of an effort to develop a significantly simpler and more efficient inversion-type rain rate algorithm, the physical information content of two linear transformations of single-frequency, dual-polarization brightness temperatures is studied: the normalized polarization difference P of Petty and Katsaros (1990, 1992), which is intended as a measure of footprint-averaged rain cloud transmittance for a given frequency; and a scattering index S (similar to the polarization corrected temperature of Spencer et al.,1989) which is sensitive almost exclusively to ice. A reverse Monte Carlo radiative transfer model is used to elucidate the qualitative response of these physically distinct single-frequency indices to idealized 3-dimensional rain clouds and to demonstrate their advantages over raw brightness temperatures both as stand-alone indices of precipitation activity and as primary variables in physical, multichannel rain rate retrieval schemes. As a byproduct of the present analysis, it is shown that conventional plane-parallel analyses of the well-known foot-print-filling problem for emission-based algorithms may in some cases give seriously misleading results.

Petty, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Continuum radiation from active galactic nuclei: A statistical study

The physics of the continuum spectrum of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was examined using a large data set and rigorous statistical methods. A data base was constructed for 469 objects which include radio selected quasars, optically selected quasars, X-ray selected AGNs, BL Lac objects, and optically unidentified compact radio sources. Each object has measurements of its radio, optical, X-ray core continuum luminosity, though many of them are upper limits. Since many radio sources have extended components, the core component were carefully selected out from the total radio luminosity. With survival analysis statistical methods, which can treat upper limits correctly, these data can yield better statistical results than those previously obtained. A variety of statistical tests are performed, such as the comparison of the luminosity functions in different subsamples, and linear regressions of luminosities in different bands. Interpretation of the results leads to the following tentative conclusions: the main emission mechanism of optically selected quasars and X-ray selected AGNs is thermal, while that of BL Lac objects is synchrotron; radio selected quasars may have two different emission mechanisms in the X-ray band; BL Lac objects appear to be special cases of the radio selected quasars; some compact radio sources show the possibility of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) in the optical band; and the spectral index between the optical and the X-ray bands depends on the optical luminosity.

Isobe, T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS1989

Minimum length Pb/SCIN detector for efficient cosmic ray identification

A study was made of the performance of a minimal length cosmic ray shower detector that would be light enough for space flight and would provide efficient identification of positions and protons. Cosmic ray positions are mainly produced in the decay chain of: Pion yields Muon yields Positron and they provide a measure of the matter density traversed by primary protons. Present positron flux measurements are consistent with the Leaky Box and Halo models for sources of cosmic rays. Abundant protons in the space environment are a significant source of background that would wash out the positron signal. Protons and positrons produced very distictive showers of particles when they enter matter; many studies have been published on their behavior on large calorimeter detectors. The challenge is to determine the minimal material necessary (minimal calorimeter depth) for positive particles identification. The primary instrument for the investigation is the Monte Carlo code GEANT, a library of programs from CERN that can be used to model experimental geometry, detector responses and particle interaction processes. The use of the Monte Carlo approach is crucial since statistical fluctuations in shower shape are significant. Studies conducted during the 1988 summer program showed that straightforward approaches to the problem achieved 85 to 90 percent correct identification, but left a residue of 10 to 15 percent misidentified particles. This percentage improved to a few percent when multiple shower-cut criteria were applied to the data. This summer, the same study was extended to employ several physical and statistical methods of identifying response of the calorimeter and the efficiency of the optimal shower cuts to off-normal incidence particle was determined.

Snyder, H. David↗
NASA NTRS1971

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Mccallum, J.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Photographic astrometry and overlap reduction techniques

Rigorous adjustment algorithms are discussed which extract hidden information contained in overlapping photographs of star fields. In particular, the development of adequate physical and statistical models is emphasized.

Googe, W. D.↗