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NASA NTRS2005

Aerosol climatology using a tunable spectral variability cloud screening of AERONET data

Can cloud screening of an aerosol data set, affect the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) climatology? Aerosols, humidity and clouds are correlated. Therefore, rigorous cloud screening can systematically bias towards less cloudy conditions, underestimating the average AOT. Here, using AERONET data we show that systematic rejection of variable atmospheric optical conditions can generate such bias in the average AOT. Therefore we recommend (1) to introduce more powerful spectral variability cloud screening and (2) to change the philosophy behind present aerosol climatologies: Instead of systematically rejecting all cloud contaminations, we suggest to intentionally allow the presence of cloud contamination, estimate the statistical impact of the contamination and correct for it. The analysis, applied to 10 AERONET stations with approx. 4 years of data, shows almost no change for Rome (Italy), but up to a change in AOT of 0.12 in Beijing (PRC). Similar technique may be explored for satellite analysis, e.g. MODIS.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Operational Detection of Sun Glints in DSCOVR EPIC Images

Satellite images often feature sun glints caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from water surfaces or from horizontally oriented ice crystals occurring in clouds. Such glints can prevent accurate retrievals of atmospheric and surface properties using existing algorithms, but the glints can also be used to infer more about the glint-causing objects—for example about the microphysical properties and radiative effects of ice clouds. This paper introduces the recently released operational glint product of the Earth Polychromatic Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. Most importantly, the paper describes the algorithm used for generating the key component of the new product: a glint mask indicating the presence of sun glint caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from ice clouds and smooth water surfaces. After describing the glint detection algorithm and glint product, the paper shows some examples of the detected glints and discusses some basic statistics of the glint population in a yearlong dataset of EPIC images. These statistics provide insights into the performance of glint detection and point toward possibilities for using the glint product to gain scientific insights about ice clouds and water surfaces.

DSCOVR↗

NASA NTRS2008

Visual Data Analysis for Satellites

The Visual Data Analysis Package is a collection of programs and scripts that facilitate visual analysis of data available from NASA and NOAA satellites, as well as dropsonde, buoy, and conventional in-situ observations. The package features utilities for data extraction, data quality control, statistical analysis, and data visualization. The Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) satellite data extraction routines from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory were customized for specific spatial coverage and file input/output. Statistical analysis includes the calculation of the relative error, the absolute error, and the root mean square error. Other capabilities include curve fitting through the data points to fill in missing data points between satellite passes or where clouds obscure satellite data. For data visualization, the software provides customizable Generic Mapping Tool (GMT) scripts to generate difference maps, scatter plots, line plots, vector plots, histograms, timeseries, and color fill images.

Lau, Yee↗

NASA NTRS1984

NOAA/NASA Joint Simulation of AMTS and HIRS

Sounding simulation test was designed to compare the relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infrared temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high spectral resolution infrared sounder. Retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions were compared. In the cloudy portion of the test, MSU data, corresponding to the microwave component of the current operational sounding system, was used in conjunction with both instruments to aid in cloud seeding.

Susskind, J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS1990

A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Nisbet, John S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Persistence of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds

The persistence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 satellite sensor over a 9-year period is compared and contrasted. Histograms of the SAM 2 1.0 micron extinction ratio data (aerosol extinction normalized by the molecular extinction) at an altitude of 18 km in the Antarctic have been generated for three 10-day periods in the month of September. Statistics for eight different years (1979 to 1982 and 1984 to 1987) are shown in separate panels for each figure. Since the SAM 2 system is a solar occultation experiment, observations are limited to the edge of the polar night and no measurements are made deep within the vortex where temperatures could be colder. For this reason, use is made of the NMC global gridded fields and the known temperature-extinction relationship to infer additional information on the occurrence and areal coverage of PSCs. Calculations of the daily areal coverage of the 195 K isotherm will be presented for this same period of data. This contour level lies in the range of the predicted temperature for onset of the Type 1 particle enhancement mode at 50 mb (Poole and McCormick, 1988b) and should indicate approximately when formation of the binary HNO3-H2O particles begins.

Mccormick, M. Patrick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Federated Learning to Overcome Data Gravity in Space

Humans intend to take longer missions to outer space. Understanding the impact that space has on human health is paramount to the success of these missions. Controlled experiments with model organisms are run to infer the impact of space conditions on human health, but the data these experiments generate are too large to transfer to Earth for building models. The same is true for space-relevant data generated on Earth. Ideally, these datasets should be combined to improve statistical power and model accuracy without having to transfer data. Federated learning is such a method which trains an algorithm across decentralized computing systems, each of which has their own local copy of training and testing data. In this research, made possible by NASA@Work, the AI for Life in Space group at NASA demonstrates the use of federated learning to train an ensemble of causality inference models on a combination of data residing on the International Space Station (ISS) and in the cloud. Our work leverages CRISP, a causal inference platform developed during the 2020 Frontier Development Lab’s “Astronaut Health Challenge.” We also leverage the OpenFL federated learning library which was collaboratively developed at Intel and UPenn. We used publicly available data from the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive to identify features in ionizing radiation experiments as causal of changes in cardiac blood velocity. This research demonstrates, for the first time, the possibility of running machine learning algorithms on datasets separated by astronomical distances. In this experiment, all the data were generated in terra, half of which were transferred to the ISS and analyzed on the Spaceborne Computer. In the future, our research will leverage federated learning on data generated in situ on the ISS with data generated terrestrially to predict the impact of spaceflight on mammalian female reproductive capacity.

James Casaletto↗

NASA NTRS1986

A structural-stochastic model for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images

A structural-stochastic image model is developed for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images. The ability of the model to characterize the visual appearance of cloud fields observed by satellite with a limited number of parameters is demonstrated. The model merges structural and stochastic information, the stochastic model acting as a local statistical operator applied to the output of the structural model. The structural or large-scale organization of the scene is retrieved from the two-dimensional Fourier representation of the digital image. The pattern generated by the major Fourier components provides a first guess of the scene. The stochastic aspect is described by a Markov model of texture that assumes a binomial probability distribution for the local grey-level variability. This Markov model provides four parameters that represent the clustering strength in the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. These parameters are estimated by a standard maximum-likelihood technique. The image can be reproduced with a fair degree of verisimilitude from these parameters. The data compression factor is of the order of one hundred to several hundreds.

Garand, L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Recently Grabowski and Khairoutdinov and Randall have proposed and demonstrated, the feasibility of using 2D CRMs (these did not include detailed land processes and used periodic lateral boundary conditions) as 'super-parameterizations or a multi-scale modeling framework MMF' for cloud processes within atmospheric generation circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization that is used in conventional GCMs. An overview of this approach is given by Randall et al.. Since a CRM can explicitly simulate cloud processes at the natural space and time scales of clouddynamical processes, it's possible to compute statistics of cloud fields, including radiances and radar backscatters, directly simulated/produced by the CRM. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on a 2D GCE model and the Goddard fvGCM. A prototype MMF will be developed at end of 2004. The major objectives are to test and evaluate its performance using the GCE model as the super parameterization and compare its results with other super parameterizations, conventional GCMs and observations. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (WE) model. The GCE model is a CRM and it has been improved and applied to study the precipitation processes in the past two decades. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated. In addition, the similarities and differences between bulk- and spectral-bin microphysics will be presented,

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2023

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-Based Experiments to Model Break-Up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples in the SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-based Experiments to Model Break-up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office; the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples as with as with the NASA SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗

NASA NTRS1993

Foundations for statistical-physical precipitation retrieval from passive microwave satellite measurements. II - Emission-source and generalized weighting-function properties of a time-dependent cloud-radiation model

The foremost physical aspects of microphysical-radiative interactions that control the formation and modulation of frequency-dependent passive microwave TB over a continental cold-rain precipitation system are explained within the framework of the essential ingredients of a physically based precipitation-retrieval algorithm. The analysis is based on a modeling study in which a 3D cloud model has provided the objective basis for generating an extensive set of microphysical profiles that describe numerous precipitation features in the course of the evolution of a continental hail storm. A summary of the various components of the algorithm, as well as the surface rain rates, is given. The algorithm employs the cloud model to provide a consistent and objectively generated source of detailed microphysical information as the underpinnings to an inversion-based perturbative retrieval scheme.

Mugnai, Alberto↗

NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Airborne In Situ and Ground-based Polarimetric Radar Measurements of Tropical Convection in Support of CRYSTAL-FACE

This report describes the work performed by the University of North Dakota (UND) under NASA Grant NAG5-11509, titled Airborne In Situ and Ground-based Polarimetric Radar Measurements of Tropical Convection in Support of CRYSTAL-FACE. This work focused on the collection of data by two key platforms: the UND Citation II research aircraft and the NASA NPOL radar system. The CRYSTAL-FACE (C-F) mission addresses several key issues from the NASA Earth System Enterprise, including the variability of water in the atmosphere, the forcing provided by tropical cirrus and the response of the Earth system to this forcing. In situ measurements and radar observations of tropical convection, cirrus clouds and their environment are core elements of C-F. One of the primary issues that C-F is addressing is the relationship of tropical cirrus anvils to precipitating deep convection. The in situ measurements from C-F are being used to validate remote sensing of Earth-Atmosphere properties, increase our knowledge of upper tropospheric water vapor and its distribution, and increase our knowledge of tropical cirrus cloud morphology and composition. Radar measurements, especially polarimetric diversity observations available fiom the NASA NPOL radar, are providing essential information about the initiation, modulation, and dissipation of convective cores and the generation of associated anvils in tropical convection. Specifically, NPOL radar measurements contain information about convective intensity and its vertical structure for comparison with thermodynamic and kinematic environmental measurements observed from soundings. Because of the polarimetric diversity of MOL, statistics on bulk microphysical properties can be retrieved and compared to the other characteristics of convection and associated cirrus anvils. In summary, the central objectives of this proposal were to deploy the UND Citation research aircraft as an in situ sensing platform for this mission and to provide collaborative analyses of the recorded data and to deploy the NPOL radar to observe the characteristics of cirrus and parent convection.

Poellot, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The gravitational wakefield of a molecular cloud in a disk galaxy

A molecular cloud (considered as a point macroparticle) represents a clump of increased mass density moving in the disk of a galaxy. Its presence generates a gravitational polarization of the disk, somewhat analogous to the polarization of a dielectric medium by a test charged particle. This means that the cloud travels along with a wakefield (a region of increased mass density) which is the collective response of the stars and gas to the perturbing mass. It can represent many times the mass of the cloud, and emits spiral density waves which propagate away. In terms of statistical mechanics, this wakefield will appear as an increased two-particle correlation function which is the equivalent of the Debye sphere in a plasma - despite the absence here of negative charges. At short distances clouds will thus interact through their own gravitational field amplified by their wakefields, which might thus strongly affect their collisionality. Researchers present a calculation of this wakefield and discuss its importance in the collisional dynamics of molecular clouds.

Tagger, M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Remote Sensing Time Series Product Tool

The TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software was custom-designed for NASA to rapidly create and display single-band and band-combination time series, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images, for wide-area crop surveillance and for other time-critical applications. The TSPT, developed in MATLAB, allows users to create and display various MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) or simulated VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite) products as single images, as time series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Manually creating these types of products is extremely labor intensive; however, the TSPT development tool makes the process simplified and efficient. MODIS is ideal for monitoring large crop areas because of its wide swath (2330 km), its relatively small ground sample distance (250 m), and its high temporal revisit time (twice daily). Furthermore, because MODIS imagery is acquired daily, rapid changes in vegetative health can potentially be detected. The new TSPT technology provides users with the ability to temporally process high-revisit-rate satellite imagery, such as that acquired from MODIS and from its successor, the VIIRS. The TSPT features the important capability of fusing data from both MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, which drastically improves cloud statistics. With the TSPT, MODIS metadata is used to find and optionally remove bad and suspect data. Noise removal and temporal processing techniques allow users to create low-noise time series plots and image videos and to select settings and thresholds that tailor particular output products. The TSPT GUI (graphical user interface) provides an interactive environment for crafting what-if scenarios by enabling a user to repeat product generation using different settings and thresholds. The TSPT Application Programming Interface provides more fine-tuned control of product generation, allowing experienced programmers to bypass the GUI and to create more user-specific output products, such as comparison time plots or images. This type of time series analysis tool for remotely sensed imagery could be the basis of a large-area vegetation surveillance system. The TSPT has been used to generate NDVI time series over growing seasons in California and Argentina and for hurricane events, such as Hurricane Katrina.

Predos, Don↗

NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1: Development, Verification, and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) primarily as a tool for spacecraft designers and other users to understand the long-term risk of collisions with orbital debris. The newest version, ORDEM 3.1, incorporates the latest and highest fidelity datasets available to build and validate representative orbital debris populations encompassing low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) altitudes for the years 2016-2050. ORDEM 3.1 models fluxes for object sizes > 10 μm within or transiting LEO and > 10 cm in GEO. The deterministic portion of the populations in ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage down to approximately 10 cm in LEO and 1 m in GEO. Observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller sizes and orbit regions that are not well-covered by the SSN catalog, yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. Objects in LEO ranging from approximately 5 mm to 10 cm are modeled using observational data from ground-based radar, namely the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR – formerly known as Haystack). The LEO population smaller than approximately 3 mm in size is characterized based on a reanalysis of in situ data from impacts to the windows and radiators of the U.S. Space Transportation System orbiter vehicle, i.e., the Space Shuttle. Data from impacts on the Hubble Space Telescope are also used to validate the sub-millimeter model populations in LEO. Debris in GEO with sizes ranging from 10 cm to 1 m is modeled using optical measurement data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST). Specific, major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos 2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as sodium-potassium droplets, have been re-examined and are modeled and added to the ORDEM environment separately. The debris environment greater than 1 mm is forecast using NASA’s LEO-to- GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND). Future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically, and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments from these events. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are further differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to spacecraft. The future projection of the sub-millimeter environment is computed using a special small-particle degradation model where small particles are created from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies. This work discusses the development, features, and capabilities of the ORDEM 3.1 model; the ne new data analyses used to build the model populations; and sample verification and validation results.

Matney, M.↗