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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal sensor fusion framework for residential building occupancy detection

For several years now, smart building energy systems have been a research area of intensive activity. In light of the increasing need for sustainable buildings and energy systems, this trend motivates an increasing need for a solution to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve energy efficiency. This work proposes a high-performing and transferable occupancy detection framework that combines sensor data from different data modalities, including time series environmental data (temperature, humidity, and illuminance), image data, and acoustic energy data using ensemble method. To draw out the best prediction performance in each modality, the proposed framework was developed, including various models that were designed to learn the occupancy patterns reflected in the physical data streams. To tackle the time series environmental data, we designed two variants of an occupancy detection spatiotemporal pattern network (Occ-STPN) that performs both feature level and decision level fusion, respectively. We also propose a new metric; the fading memory mean square error (FMMSE), that provides a fair evaluation and penalization of delayed occupancy predictions. Multiple open-sourced datasets, including the Electricity Consumption and Occupancy and the University of California, Irvine's (UCI) building occupancy detection dataset, along with our own real data collected from six different houses, were used to validate the algorithms' performance. The experimental results presented herein break down the performance for each sensing modality, and a detailed analysis of the performance is also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power Grid Behavioral Patterns and Risks of Generalization in Applied Machine Learning

Recent years have seen a rich literature of data-driven approaches designed for power grid applications. However, insufficient consideration of domain knowledge can impose a high risk to the practicality of the methods. Specifically, ignoring the grid-specific spatiotemporal patterns (in load, generation, and topology, etc.) can lead to outputting infeasible, unrealizable, or completely meaningless predictions on new inputs. To address this concern, this paper investigates real-world operational data to provide insights into power grid behavioral patterns, including the time-varying topology, load, and generation, as well as the spatial differences (in peak hours, diverse styles) between individual loads and generations. Then based on these observations, we evaluate the generalization risks in some existing ML works caused by ignoring these grid-specific patterns in model design and training.

Li, Shimiao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unveiling Urban Pollution Patterns from a Bird’s-Eye View

Low-earth orbiting satellites have been observing the global distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) since the 1990s and these observations have been used to identify pollution source regions, temporal trends, and links to health effects and community disparities. However, historically, space-based NO2 observations have been coarse in spatial and temporal resolution resulting in challenges in data interpretation and product validation; therefore, NASA developed airborne capabilities and measurements strategies to observe ultraviolet-visible (UV-VIS) trace gases at high temporal and spatial resolutions to unveiling never before seen spatiotemporal patterns over major urban hubs during recent air quality field studies. In this talk, Dr. Judd will share the story of these field studies with datasets collected from NASA’s airborne spectrometers, GeoTASO and GCAS, and how they integrate in with other space- and ground-based instrumentation to illustrate the conceptual model of air quality episodes in coastal urban environments, contribute to satellite validation and regional chemical transport model evaluation. These imagers have the capability to observe UV-VIS absorbing species, typically NO2 and HCHO, at spatial resolutions as fine as 250 m when observing from the upper-troposphere. Flight strategies allowed for the collection of repeated raster samples over urban areas multiple times per flight day in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, capturing never before seen pictures of the diurnal evolution of emissions, chemistry, and meteorology associated with NO2 heterogeneity. These airborne efforts help local air quality management better understand their air quality challenges as well as benefit the larger air quality community in preparation for geostationary air quality observations and the development of the global air quality observing system.

Laura Judd↗
NASA NTRS1987

Capacity for patterns and sequences in Kanerva's SDM as compared to other associative memory models

The information capacity of Kanerva's Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) and Hopfield-type neural networks is investigated. Under the approximations used, it is shown that the total information stored in these systems is proportional to the number connections in the network. The proportionality constant is the same for the SDM and Hopfield-type models independent of the particular model, or the order of the model. The approximations are checked numerically. This same analysis can be used to show that the SDM can store sequences of spatiotemporal patterns, and the addition of time-delayed connections allows the retrieval of context dependent temporal patterns. A minor modification of the SDM can be used to store correlated patterns.

Keeler, James D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Capacity for patterns and sequences in Kanerva's SDM as compared to other associative memory models

The information capacity of Kanerva's Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) and Hopfield-type neural networks is investigated. Under the approximations used here, it is shown that the total information stored in these systems is proportional to the number connections in the network. The proportionality constant is the same for the SDM and Hopfield-type models independent of the particular model, or the order of the model. The approximations are checked numerically. This same analysis can be used to show that the SDM can store sequences of spatiotemporal patterns, and the addition of time-delayed connections allows the retrieval of context dependent temporal patterns. A minor modification of the SDM can be used to store correlated patterns.

Keeler, James D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Complex expression patterns of lymphocyte-specific genes during the development of cartilaginous fish implicate unique lymphoid tissues in generating an immune repertoire

Cartilaginous fish express canonical B and T cell recognition genes, but their lymphoid organs and lymphocyte development have been poorly defined. Here, the expression of Ig, TCR, recombination-activating gene (Rag)-1 and terminal deoxynucleosidase (TdT) genes has been used to identify roles of various lymphoid tissues throughout development in the cartilaginous fish, Raja eglanteria (clearnose skate). In embryogenesis, Ig and TCR genes are sharply up-regulated at 8 weeks of development. At this stage TCR and TdT expression is limited to the thymus; later, TCR gene expression appears in peripheral sites in hatchlings and adults, suggesting that the thymus is a source of T cells as in mammals. B cell gene expression indicates more complex roles for the spleen and two special organs of cartilaginous fish-the Leydig and epigonal (gonad-associated) organs. In the adult, the Leydig organ is the site of the highest IgM and IgX expression. However, the spleen is the first site of IgM expression, while IgX is expressed first in gonad, liver, Leydig and even thymus. Distinctive spatiotemporal patterns of Ig light chain gene expression also are seen. A subset of Ig genes is pre-rearranged in the germline of the cartilaginous fish, making expression possible without rearrangement. To assess whether this allows differential developmental regulation, IgM and IgX heavy chain cDNA sequences from specific tissues and developmental stages have been compared with known germline-joined genomic sequences. Both non-productively rearranged genes and germline-joined genes are transcribed in the embryo and hatchling, but not in the adult.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Root water uptake of biofuel crops revealed by coupled electrical resistivity and soil water content measurements

Abstract Biofuel crops, including annuals such as maize ( Zea mays L.), soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.], and canola ( Brassica napus L.), as well as high‐biomass perennial grasses such as miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus J.M. Greef & Deuter ex Hodkinson & Renvoiz), are candidates for sustainable alternative energy sources. However, large‐scale conversion of croplands to perennial biofuel crops could have substantial impacts on regional water, nutrient, and C cycles due to the longer growing seasons and differences in rooting systems compared with most annual crops. However, due to the limited tools available to nondestructively study the spatiotemporal patterns of root water uptake in situ at field scales, these differences in crop water use are not well known. Geophysical imaging tools such as electrical resistivity (ER) reveal changes in water content in the soil profile. In this study, we demonstrate the use of a novel coupled hydrogeophysical approach with both time domain reflectometry soil water content and ER measurements to compare root water uptake and soil properties of an annual crop rotation with the perennial grass miscanthus, across three growing seasons (2009–2011) in southwest Michigan, USA. We estimated maximum root depths to be between 1.2 and 2.2 m, with the vertical distribution of roots being notably deeper in 2009 relative to 2010 and 2011, likely due to the drought conditions during that first year. Modeled cumulative ET of both crops was underestimated (2–34%) relative to estimates obtained from soil water drawdown in prior studies but was found to be greater in the perennial grass than the annual crops, despite shallower modeled rooting depths in 2010 and 2011.

Kuhl, Alexandria S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of physical and chemical hydrology on bioremediation of a U-contaminated aquifer informed by reactive transport modeling incorporating 238 U/ 235 U ratios

Microbially-catalyzed reductive immobilization of aqueous uranium (U) as a solid phase has been proposed as a U remediation technique. Both laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated that this reduction reaction alters the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, producing a 238 U-enriched U(IV) solid. In contrast, other major U reactive transport processes fractionate these isotopes much less. This suggests the potential to quantify the extent of bioreduction occurring in groundwater containing U using the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, which would substantially improve upon current practices largely relying on U concentration measurements alone. Current reactive transport models for uranium dynamics include only concentration measurements, which are strongly influenced by highly coupled reactive transformation and aqueous transport processes. The complex physical and chemical behavior of U potentially compromises such quantitative analysis of U storage and release. Here we report the first numerical reactive transport model which explicitly incorporates variations in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio of U and demonstrates improved interpretation of the principal chemical reactions and groundwater transport processes affecting the subsurface mobility and distribution of this widespread contaminant. Recent U bioreduction studies performed in a contaminated aquifer in Rifle, Colorado, USA applied Rayleigh distillation models to interpret U stable isotope fractionation observed as a result of acetate amendment. These simplified models were unable to resolve the spatiotemporal pattern of U isotope fractionation recorded in the aqueous solutes. Here, we employ the multi-component, isotope-enabled CrunchTope reactive transport software to interpret these measured U isotope ratios, and demonstrate accurate reproduction of observed trends in both geochemistry and 238 U/ 235 U ratios for two consecutive years of field experiments. Overall, our results indicate that accurately modeling both the U concentration and isotope ratio distributions greatly constrains the parameter space of the model. We find that the transport properties of U in the Rifle aquifer are governed by the presence of low-permeability regions, which the isotopes are uniquely sensitive to. When U reduction is spatially constrained by these low-permeability regions, the shift in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio becomes more muted. Accurate modeling of observed U isotope ratios thus provides a powerful means to better understand bioremediation, and the current study serves to advance the application of this novel method.

238U/235U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Groundwater Level Fluctuations Drive Subsurface Redox Variability

As global change processes modify the extent and functions of terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, the variability of critical and dynamic transitional zones between wetlands and uplands increases. However, it is still unclear how fluctuating water levels at these dynamic boundaries alter groundwater biogeochemical cycling. Here, we used high-temporal resolution data along gradients from wetlands to uplands and during fluctuating water levels at freshwater coastal areas to capture spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater redox potential (E h ). We observed that topography influences groundwater E h that is higher in uplands than wetlands; however, the high variability within TAI zones challenged the establishment of distinct redox zonation. Declining water levels generally decreased E h , but most locations exhibited significant E h variability, which is associated with rare instances of short-term water level fluctuations introducing oxygen. The E h -oxygen relationship showed distinct hysteresis patterns, reflecting redox poising capacity at higher E h , maintaining more oxidizing states longer than dissolved oxygen presence. Surprisingly, we observed more frequent oxidizing states in transitional areas and wetlands than in uplands. We infer that occasional oxygen entering specific wetland-upland boundaries acts as critical biogeochemical control points. Finally, high-resolution data can capture such rare yet significant biogeochemical instances, supporting redox-informed models and advancing the predictability of climate change feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Impacts of Marine Methanethiol Emissions and Chemistry in the Atmosphere

Oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) have long been known to influence aerosol particle composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, and Earth’s radiative budget. However, the impact of oceanic emissions of methanethiol (MeSH), a sulfur compound produced by the same oceanic precursor as DMS, has been relatively less explored. The gas-phase oxidation of MeSH has a higher effective yield of SO 2 and a shorter oxidative lifetime compared to DMS, highlighting the relevance of this pathway for the modeled representation of particle formation, growth, and CCN abundance in the marine atmosphere. Here, we use the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to explore possible scenarios representative of specific environmental conditions and MeSH emission schemes based on previous experimental studies. We further implement and test previously reported chemical mechanisms for MeSH oxidation, along with additional improvements, highlighting key uncertainties and sensitivities for regional and global sulfur budgets. We place our results in the context of recent modeling updates to DMS chemistry and cloud processing, which further impact SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere in parallel with MeSH oxidation. Within the overall marine sulfur budget, our findings highlight that MeSH plays a significant role in SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere, contributing to regional surface layer concentration increases of up to 40–60%. These results point to the importance of MeSH for efforts aimed at improving the modeled representation of sulfur spatiotemporal patterns relevant to air quality predictions and climate impact assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Stratigraphy and Loading History in Generating Complex Compaction Bands in Idealized Field-Scale Settings

The Buckskin Gulch locality in Utah is a landmark example of compaction localization. The outcrop of this locality involves distinct stratigraphic heterogeneity and was exposed to complex loading history. It features multiple sets of deformation bands with different kinematics and orientation. Similar formations were seen in the Valley of Fire, Nevada, and the Orange quarry, France, among other localities. The formation of such complex structures, their propagation mechanisms, and frequency is affected by numerous local and ambient factors whose impacts are not yet fully understood. The simulation of the above-mentioned localities is not feasible because of the limited amount of available information. This work, instead, investigates from a geomechanics standpoint how the interplay among material nonlinearity, outcrop stratigraphy, and loading history interconnects with specific spatiotemporal patterns of compaction band propagation. Our study shows that the system stratigraphy can be responsible for the emergence of coexisting compaction bands with different inclination and kinematics. Specifically, we show that stiffness contrasts induce nonlocal stress changes which may favor the initiation of secondary structures with different compaction localization characteristics. Furthermore, systems of inclined compaction bands induced by burial increase display secondary, noncontemporaneous sets of vertical compaction bands under the effects of postburial shortening. Our results indicate that stages of intermediate burial decrease prior to tectonic shortening can promote the formation of such complex systems. Despite the simplifications involved in our analyses, these findings show how geomechanics computations complement field observations and could provide a mechanics-based validation of site-specific reconstruction hypothesis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Groundwater Withdrawals on River Regulation: Example From the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub-basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in the basin. This work aims to understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on the spatiotemporal patterns of modeling regulated streamflow in the CRB using a modified version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model integrated with a water management component that accounts for groundwater withdrawals, irrigation demands, and reservoir operation (VIC-GIRR). The VIC-GIRR simulations showed that considering additional groundwater withdrawals would alleviate the stress of irrigation water deficit in the Snake River Basin with an average reduction of 10 km 3 /year. Such a reduction in water deficit resulted in slight streamflow increase over the CRB with maximum increase up to 40% during dry period in certain locations. We also note that the implementation of groundwater withdrawal does not, however, improve the overall model performance in long-term averaged streamflow and storage predictions. Our results highlight the efforts needed to examine additional important processes in representing the interactions between water withdrawals and reservoir operations. Such efforts will aid in better simulation of multi-reservoir system and improve effectiveness for agricultural productivity, power generation, flood control, and navigation purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Diffusivity and the Influence of Heterogeneity on Injection‐Induced Seismicity

Abstract The spatiotemporal patterns of injection‐induced seismicity (IIS) are commonly interpreted with the concept of a triggering front, which propagates in a diffusion‐like manner with an associated diffusivity parameter. Here, we refer to this diffusivity as the “seismic diffusivity.” Several previous studies implicitly assume that seismic diffusivity is equivalent to the effective hydraulic diffusivity of the subsurface, which describes the behavior of the mean pressure field in heterogeneous porous media. Seismicity‐based approaches for hydraulic characterization or simulations of IIS using domains of homogeneous equivalent porous media are implicitly based on this assumed equivalence. However, seismicity is expected to propagate with the threshold triggering pressure, and thus not be controlled by the evolution of the mean pressure field. We present numerical simulations of fluid injection to compare the seismic and effective hydraulic diffusivities in heterogeneous formations (including fractured rock). The numerical model combines uncoupled, linear pressure diffusion with the Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion to simulate IIS. We demonstrate that connected pathways of relatively high hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous media (particularly in fractured rock domains) allow the threshold triggering pressure to propagate more rapidly than predicted by the effective hydraulic diffusivity. As a result, the seismic diffusivity is greater than the effective hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous porous media, possibly by an order of magnitude or more. Additionally, we present a case study of IIS near Soultz‐sous‐Forêts where seismic diffusivity is found to be at least one order of magnitude larger than the effective hydraulic diffusivity.

Haagenson, Ryan↗